NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Saturday, Jan. 28): Spencer Dinwiddie, Discount Stud

Saturday features a nine-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

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NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

It might be weird to consider Spencer Dinwiddie as a stud point guard, but he fits that description on Saturday’s slate. The Mavericks are going to be without Luka Doncic and Christian Wood, opening up a ton of usage for the rest of the roster. Dinwiddie has been a massive beneficiary with both players off the floor this season, increasing his usage rate by a team-high +13.3%. He’s averaged 1.22 DraftKings points per minute in that scenario, representing a massive increase from his average of 0.92 DraftKings points per minute for the year.

Dinwiddie also draws a strong matchup vs. the Jazz. They rank just 26th in defensive efficiency, and Dinwiddie owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.15 on DraftKings. Ultimately, Dinwiddie provides an elite ceiling at a midrange price tag, so he’s tough to avoid on this slate.

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Value

Markelle Fultz continues to get cheaper, particularly on DraftKings. He’s down to just $5,800 for Saturday’s matchup vs. the Bulls, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97%. Fultz hasn’t been particularly effective of late, but he’s still racked up at least 30.8 minutes in three straight games. That bodes well for his fantasy prospects moving forward. He’s averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he should be able to pay off his current salary with that much playing time.

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Fast Break

D’Angelo Russell has posted a positive Plus/Minus in five straight games, yet his salary has stayed pretty stagnant across the industry. He’s in a great spot to keep the production going Saturday vs. the Kings. They’ve been one of the best matchups in fantasy this season, ranking fourth in pace and 23rd in defensive efficiency. The total on this game sits at 238.0 points, which is the top mark on the slate.

The Suns continue to deal with a host of key injuries, leaving Chris Paul to carry a larger workload than usual. He’s racked up at least 45.2 FanDuel points in two of his past three games, and the lone exception was a blowout where he played just 27.1 minutes. He should be able to do significant damage vs. the Spurs, who rank dead last in defensive efficiency this season.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

DeMar DeRozan is another play who has provided nice value of late. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games on FanDuel, where he remains underpriced at $8,900. His price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 82%, while his 12 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position. The Magic have struggled defensively this season, ranking 20th in defensive efficiency, and DeRozan owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.08. He’s not the most exciting stud on the slate, but he’s a solid bet to return value.

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Value

Tim Hardaway Jr. stands out as one of the best value options of the day on FanDuel, where his $5,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%. Like Dinwiddie, Hardaway is going to have to do a lot more heavy lifting than usual with Doncic and Wood out of the lineup. He’s increased his usage rate by +5.5% with both players off the floor this season, and he’s currently projected for 36 minutes in our NBA Models. Hardaway hasn’t been the best on a per-minute basis this season, but he has significant upside for his price tag on Saturday.

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Fast Break

It’s hard to overlook Corey Kispert at just $3,200 on DraftKings. With Kristaps Porzingis doubtful and Rui Hachimura in Los Angeles, the coast is clear for Kispert to rack up big minutes on Saturday. He’s currently projected for more than 30 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.30 (per the Trends tool). Kispert has returned value in each of his past two contests, and there’s no reason he can’t do it again on Saturday.

Alec Burks has produced at a high level when given the chance to play this season, averaging 1.04 DraftKings points per minute. His minutes have been capped in the low 20s on most nights, but he erupted for 35.75 DraftKings points over 30.3 minutes in his last contest. He likely won’t see that much playing time on Saturday, but he should make the most of his minutes in a juicy matchup vs. the Rockets.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Don’t look now, but here come the Clippers. They’ve rattled off four straight wins, and they’re up to fifth place in the Western Conference standings. They also have Kawhi Leonard and Paul George both healthy and playing significant minutes for basically the first time in two years. This team has always had the talent to contend for a title if healthy, and it looks as though they’re ready to make a run.

Leonard has also been solid for DFS players recently, rattling off a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games on FanDuel. He’s increased his production to 1.29 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, which trails only Jayson Tatum and LeBron James at the small forward position on Saturday’s slate. Leonard is significantly cheaper than both players, and his $9,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%. He also gets a nice matchup vs. the Hawks, who have played at the seventh-fastest pace this season.

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Value

The Rockets are going to be without two of their top options on Saturday. Kevin Porter Jr. remains out with a foot injury, and Jalen Green will join him on the sidelines vs. the Pistons. That’s going to open up plenty of value for the rest of the roster.

Eric Gordon should be one of the biggest beneficiaries. The veteran guard missed the team’s last game with a knee injury but has been removed from the injury report for Saturday’s matchup. He’s seen a team-high +9.6% usage bump with KPJ and Green off the floor this season, and he’s increased his assist rate by +11.9%. Add it all up, and he’s averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute in that scenario. He’s currently projected for 30 minutes in our NBA Models, giving him massive appeal at just $4,500.

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Fast Break

The Mavericks have a pair of appealing DFS targets at small forward in Dorian Finney-Smith and Josh Green. Finney-Smith is slightly more expensive, but he’s coming off 42.0 DraftKings points in his last contest. He increased his usage rate to 25.1% in that game, and while that might be a bit of an outlier, he clearly has more upside than usual with Doncic and Wood out of the lineup. Green has racked up at least 32 minutes back-to-back games, and he should see a similar workload on Saturday. He’s priced at just $3,600 on DraftKings, and he’s a great bet to pay off his salary with that much playing time.

Deni Avdija can continue to be trusted for the Wizards for as long as Porzingis is out of the lineup. He’s increased his production to 0.92 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s racked up at least 33.0 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. He remains priced at a massive discount on DraftKings, where his $4,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Sticking with the Wizards, Kyle Kuzma has some appeal as a stud option, particularly at $8,500 on FanDuel. His price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%, and he should continue to serve as the team’s offensive focal point. He’s posted a usage rate of at least 29.5% in six straight games, and he’s scored at least 48.0 FanDuel points in four of them. He’s increased his usage rate to 31.0% with Porzingis and Hachimura off the floor this season, so that kind of production feels repeatable. Bradley Beal has also been limited to around 30 minutes per game since returning from injury, which gives Kuzma another boost.

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Value

Chris Boucher is always an appealing target when he’s expected to get minutes, and Saturday’s matchup vs. the Blazers fits that description. He’s played at least 19.4 minutes in four straight games, and he could see a slight bump on Saturday if OG Anunoby is unable to play. His status is currently TBD after suffering a wrist injury on Friday.

Boucher is currently projected for 24 minutes in our NBA Models, and that should be plenty given his per-minute efficiency. Boucher hasn’t had a comparable salary and minute projection very often, but he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.54 in his limited opportunities.

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Fast Break

Tari Eason provides an elite ceiling for his price tag. He went off for 38.25 DraftKings points in 25.3 minutes on Thursday, and he’s had at least 35.75 in two of his past three games. Eason has increased his production to 1.21 DraftKings points per minute with Green and KPJ off the floor, so he has more upside than usual given the team’s current injury situation.

Robert Williams has PF eligibility on FanDuel, and he stands out as one of the best values at the position. His minutes are trending upwards, and he’s coming off 31.4 and 36.0 minutes in his past two contests. Williams has averaged 1.06 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he’s too cheap at $5,700 if he’s going to continue to play 30+ minutes per night.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Alperen Sengun has been a fantasy monster recently. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +9.60 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, and he’s increased his production to 1.38 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s coming off a subpar showing in a tough matchup vs. the Cavs, but he’s scored at least 54.0 DraftKings points in four of his past six games.

His matchup vs. the Pistons on Saturday is significantly friendlier. They’re 29th in the league in terms of defensive efficiency, and they’ve allowed the third-most points in the paint per game. Sengun should be able to have a field day on the interior, and he should be busier than usual with Green and KPJ out of the lineup. Overall, this is a potential smash spot for a rising star.

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Value

Dwight Powell is another cheap option worth consideration for the Mavericks. His $3,800 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%, and he’s currently projected for more than 32 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s increased his production to 0.81 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s racked up 27.5 and 37.75 DraftKings points in his past two games.

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Fast Break

Zach Collins is another potential value option at the position. He’s not going to see the same kind of minutes as someone like Powell, but he makes up for it with superior per-minute production. He’s averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games.

Deandre Ayton returned to the Suns’ lineup in their last game and wasted no time making an impact. He posted a 40.8% usage rate, and he finished with 19 points and 20 boards in 31.1 minutes. He scored 50.0 FanDuel points despite shooting just 6-20 from the field, so he has the potential for an even bigger performance on Saturday. He’s not projected for much ownership, making him an excellent GPP pivot.