NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Saturday, Jan. 21): Put Some Respect on Mason Plumlee’s Name

Saturday features a six-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock. Use the PrizePicks promo code LABS to get a $100 sign-up bonus for NBA player props.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

The Hawks are on the second leg of a back-to-back, and Trae Young is coming off a disappointing performance on Friday. He finished with just 37.75 DraftKings points in 32.5 minutes, and he’s now posted a negative Plus/Minus in six straight games. However, Young is projected for closer to 38.5 minutes in our NBA Models on Saturday, so he should see significantly more playing time.

He also draws one of the best possible matchups vs. the Hornets. They rank ninth in pace and 27th in defensive efficiency, and the Hawks’ implied team total of 121.25 ranks second on the slate. Young’s price tag has also decreased significantly on DraftKings, dropping by -$900 over the past month. Add it all up, and this is an excellent buy-low spot.

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Value

The Suns’ injury report will be important to monitor on Saturday. Chris Paul has been upgraded to questionable after missing the past six games, so it appears as though he’ll return in the near future. Josh Okogie is also questionable, while Devin Booker, Cam Payne, Cam Johnson, and Landry Shamet have all been ruled out.

If Paul is unable to return, Saban Lee should continue to provide value for the Suns. He’s coming off a strong showing in his last contest, finishing with 30.25 DraftKings points over 29.5 minutes. The Suns also have an excellent matchup vs. the Pacers, who rank third in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency.

However, Lee will have to sign another 10-day contract for Phoenix before he can play in this contest, so make sure that happens before locking him in.

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Fast Break

The Hornets are expected to be without LaMelo Ball on Saturday, which should open up some additional playing time for Dennis Smith Jr. Smith has always been a capable fantasy producer when given the opportunity to play, and he’s averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s priced at just $4,000 on DraftKings, and Smith has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.47 when projected for at least 22 minutes with a comparable price tag (per the Trends tool). DSJ is also one of the best pure values at the position on DraftKings given his 99% Bargain Rating.

Donovan Mitchell’s status is still TBD, but Darius Garland would warrant consideration if he’s ruled out. Garland has taken on a more prominent role with Mitchell sidelined recently, posting a 29.7% usage rate and a 41.1% assist rate over the past two games. He’s scored 55.0 and 48.9 FanDuel points in those contests, and his $8,500 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Terry Rozier is going to have to do more of the heavy lifting for the Hornets if Ball is unable to suit up. He’s increased his usage rate by +3.3% and his assist rate by +3.9% with Ball off the floor this season, good for an average of 1.03 DraftKings points per minute. He should also see all the minutes he can handle vs. the Hawks. He’s projected for 36 minutes in our NBA Models, and that might be a conservative estimate. He racked up 38.2 minutes in his last outing, and he’s averaged 37.6 minutes in 16 games without Ball this season.

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Value

Chris Duarte is a potential option for the Pacers on this slate. He’s struggled to find consistent playing time in his second professional season, and he played less than 17 minutes in Friday’s loss vs. the Nuggets. However, he did average 24.4 minutes in his previous four contests, so he has some room for growth on Saturday.

Duarte has also shown an increased aggressiveness of late. He’s posted an average usage rate of 22.2% over his past eight games, including a mark of 31.8% in his last contest. That gives him some upside on nights when his shot is falling.

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Fast Break

Mikal Bridges has had to carry a monster workload for the shorthanded Suns recently. He’s scored at least 40.9 FanDuel points in three straight games, and he’s coming off more than 41.5 minutes in his last outing. He’s also posted a usage rate of at least 25.6% in back-to-back games, which represents a significant increase from his season average of 18.1%.

Dejounte Murray is another potential option in the Hawks’ backcourt. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games, and he racked up 62.0 DraftKings points Friday vs. the Knicks. His 10 Pro Trends on DraftKings are tied for the most at the position, and he owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.27.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Anthony Edwards is questionable once again for the Timberwolves, but he has yet to miss a game this season. As long as he’s in the lineup, he’s a strong target at $8,700 on FanDuel. He’s played very well since Karl-Anthony Towns went down with an injury, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games.

He’s in an elite spot Saturday vs. the Rockets. They rank 28th in defensive efficiency, and the Timberwolves’ implied team total of 122.75 ranks first on the slate.

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Value

Kyle Anderson is significantly underpriced at $5,900 on DraftKings. His salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%, and he’s averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Anderson has posted three straight massive games, racking up 49.5, 49.75, and 50.75 DraftKings points. There’s no reason he can’t do it again in an outstanding spot vs. the Rockets.

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Fast Break

On the other side of that matchup, the Rockets have plenty of minutes up for grabs at the moment. Kevin Porter Jr. and Jabari Smith Jr. are both sidelined, and Eric Gordon figures to be one of the biggest beneficiaries. He’s increased his usage rate by +8.2% with KPJ and Smith off the floor, resulting in an average of 0.93 DraftKings points per minute. He’s projected for more than 32 minutes in our NBA Models, so he’s a very appealing value at $4,500.

Damion Lee is another strong target for the depleted Suns. He’s taken on a much larger role for the team recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in five straight games. That includes two performances with at least 36.75 DraftKings points, giving him plenty of upside at $4,800.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Domantas Sabonis is almost always underpriced on FanDuel, and Saturday is no exception. His $10,300 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.31 over his past 10 games. He’s scored at least 47.8 FanDuel points in seven of his past eight games, including each of his past four.

Sabonis has a tough matchup vs. the 76ers, but recent history suggests this is simply too cheap of a price tag.

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Value

John Collins has been priced down to just $6,000 on FanDuel, and he’s an appealing buy-low option at that number. He’s racked up at least 33.3 FanDuel points in back-to-back games, and Collins has averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.76 with a comparable salary this season. He benefits from the same elite matchup as Young and Murray, and he’s arguably the best pure value at the position.

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Fast Break

P.J. Washington has increased his production to 0.93 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s seen a nice bump in games without Ball this season. He’s seen a usage bump of +2.4% in that scenario, resulting in an average of 0.88 DraftKings points per minute.

Keegan Murray has started to pick it up during his rookie season. He’s increased his production to 0.82 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in nine of his past 10 games. His playing time is on the rise – he’s logged at least 36.8 minutes in back-to-back games – and he erupted for 51.0 DraftKings points Friday vs. the Thunder.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Alperen Sengun has officially entered stud territory. He’s seen an uptick in minutes recently, playing at least 37.3 minutes in back-to-back games. Sengun is an outstanding per-minute producer, so he’s unsurprisingly responded with some big performances. He’s racked up 54.0 and 70.25 DraftKings points in those contests, and he should continue to see a boost in responsibilities with KPJ and Smith sidelined. If he’s going to continue to see that much playing time, he’s underpriced across the industry.

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Value

What does Mason Plumlee have to do to get some respect? He’s been absolutely dominant recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +9.48 over his past 10 games while increasing his production to 1.23 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s projected for more than 30 minutes in a great spot vs. the Hawks, who rank 26th in points in the paint allowed per game and 27th in team rebound rate.

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Fast Break

Mark Williams is also worth some consideration on DraftKings. He’s priced just $100 more than the minimum at $3,100, and he benefits from the same elite matchup as Plumlee. He’s averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to potentially return value.

Deandre Ayton is coming off a big game in his last outing, finishing with 46.8 FanDuel points in 31.6 minutes. He posted a usage rate of 32.8% in that contest, and he should continue to carry an expanded workload given the team’s current injury situation.