NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Saturday, Jan. 14): It’s Jayson Tatum Time

Saturday features a six-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock. Use the PrizePicks promo code LABS to get a $100 sign-up bonus for NBA player props.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

There are some important names to monitor on the injury report for Saturday’s slate. Tobias Harris is one of them. He’s officially listed as questionable, and his absence would have an impact on the rest of the roster. Harris hasn’t been a huge part of the team’s offense this season, ranking fourth among the starters in scoring and usage, but the rest of the team would get a bump in his absence.

James Harden has seen one of the biggest increases in value with Harris off the floor this season. He’s seen a team-high +7.4% usage bump with Harris off the floor, resulting in an average of 1.53 DraftKings points per minute.

The 76ers are also in an excellent spot Saturday vs. the Jazz. Utah ranks 26th in defensive efficiency, and the 76ers’ implied team total of 120.25 is the second-highest mark on the slate.

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Value

The Pacers provided outstanding value on Friday, with five different players scoring at least 34.5 DraftKings points. Four of those players were priced at $4,800 or less, and they’re going to be in a very similar situation on Saturday. Tyrese Haliburton remains out of the lineup with elbow and knee injuries, while Myles Turner and Aaron Nesmith’s statuses are currently unknown.

T.J. McConnell racked up 24 minutes with Hali and Nesmith out of the lineup on Friday, and he responded with 35.75 DraftKings points. That’s on the high side of what you can expect from McConnell on Saturday, but he has always been a fantastic per-minute producer. He’s averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he should be able to return value at his $4,000 salary with a comparable workload.

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Fast Break

The Celtics are dealing with a few key injuries in their backcourt. Jaylen Brown is expected to miss a week or two, while Malcolm Brogdon is questionable. Brogdon has some appeal if he’s able to suit up – he’s averaged 1.20 DraftKings points per minute with Brown off the floor – but Marcus Smart has some appeal regardless. He’s averaged just under a fantasy point per minute over the past month, and he’s expected to see around 36 minutes in a fantastic matchup. The Hornets have played at the fastest pace in the league since LaMelo Ball returned to action, so the Celtics’ elite offense should be able to put plenty of points on the scoreboard.

The Grizzlies own the top implied team total on the slate, and Ja Morant stands out as a strong option on FanDuel. His $10,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%, and his 11 Pro Trends are tied for the second-most at the position.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Buddy Hield isn’t priced like a stud at $6,300 on DraftKings, but he has the potential for stud-like production on this slate. Donovan Mitchell and Anthony Edwards are the only shooting guards projected for more fantasy points in our NBA Models, and both players are significantly more expensive. Hield led the team with 39.75 DraftKings points on Friday across 38.2 minutes, and he’s increased his production to 1.06 DraftKings points per minute with Haliburton and Turner off the floor this season. There’s some blowout risk against the Grizzlies, but if that game stays competitive, Hield is too cheap across the industry.

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Value

Let’s keep rolling with the Pacers. Andrew Nembhard was one of the few Pacers that actually disappointed on Friday. His 25.0 DraftKings points were enough to pay off his $4,300 salary, but he didn’t provide nearly the same value as some of his teammates. However, Nembhard was a dreadful 2-16 from the field. Any player that can return value while shooting 12.5% obviously has the upside for bigger performances.

Nembhard absolutely crushed in his first two outings without Haliburton this season. He finished with 37.0 and 64.5 DraftKings points, so he’s a prime bounce-back target vs. the Grizzlies. His salary has also remained very reasonable on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 96%.

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Fast Break

Damian Lillard is currently questionable with an ankle injury, and it’s possible that he rests on the front end of a back-to-back. His absence would make Anfernee Simons one of the top guard options on the slate. Simons has increased his usage rate by +5.2% with Lillard off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 0.99 FanDuel points per minute. Simons arguably has some appeal on FanDuel even if Lillard is active given his Bargain Rating of 92%.

Gary Trent Jr. has been excellent since rejoining Toronto’s starting five. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past seven outings, and he ranks second among the team’s starters in usage over that stretch. He’s increased his production to 0.98 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and his matchup vs. the Hawks results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.97.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Jayson Tatum is going to garner plenty of ownership on Saturday’s slate. He’s turned in an MVP-caliber performance this season, averaging 30.6 points, 8.2 boards, and 4.2 assists per game, and his numbers should only increase with Brown out of the lineup. Tatum has seen a +2.2% usage bump with Brown off the floor this season, so he has the potential to improve upon his average of 1.47 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He has also averaged 52.42 DraftKings points in three full games without Brown this season.

Tatum leads the position with 10 Pro Trends on DraftKings, and the Celtics’ implied team total of 120.0 ranks third on the slate. Ultimately, there are plenty of reasons to get behind the young superstar on this slate.

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Value

If you’re looking to go cheaper with the Celtics, Grant Williams fits the description. He’s priced at just $4,300 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 96%, and he should see plenty of playing time with Brown and possibly Brogdon out of the lineup. He’s racked up at least 36.7 minutes in three straight games, and he’s projected for another sizable workload on Saturday. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.78 (per the Trends tool). Grant is also projected for “only” 30 minutes in our NBA Models. If you increase that figure to 36 – which is not unreasonable given his current workload – the expected value would increase significantly.

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Fast Break

Bennedict Mathurin is another potential option for the Pacers. The talented rookie has had an up-and-down season, but he’s seen a team-high +4.8% usage bump with Haliburton off the floor. He’s averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute in that scenario, and he’s averaged 37.0 minutes in three games with Haliburton out of the lineup. That lines up perfectly with his 37.25 DraftKings points on Friday’s slate, giving him plenty of upside at his $4,900 price tag.

Lauri Markkanen is down to just $8,300 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%. Markkanen has had a phenomenal first season in Utah, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +9.51 over his past 10 games. There’s no reason he should be priced this cheaply, even in a difficult matchup vs. the 76ers.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Pascal Siakam has blossomed into a superstar in his seventh professional season. He’s averaging career-highs in both points (26.1) and assists (6.4) per game, and his 8.3 rebounds is the second-highest mark of his career. His average of 1.26 FanDuel points per minute trails only Tatum and Jaren Jackson Jr. among Saturday’s power forwards, and he routinely plays around 38 minutes per night. None of Saturday’s power forwards are projected for more minutes than Siakam vs. the Hawks, which is an outstanding combination.

Siakam hasn’t been at his best recently, which has caused his salary to dip to $9,800 on FanDuel. It results in a Bargain Rating of 92%, and Siakam has plenty of buy-low appeal at that figure. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.82 with a comparable salary this season, and he should be able to do plenty of damage vs. the Hawks. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.21, and the Raptors’ implied team total of 119.5 represents a significant increase from their season average (112.0).

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Value

It’s going to be tough to look past Isaiah Jackson if Turner is out of the lineup again on Saturday. Jackson picked up a spot start on Friday, and he responded with 10 points, 10 rebounds, and seven blocks in 27.8 minutes. It resulted in 37.5 DraftKings points, and while the blocks were a bit fluky, Jackson is an elite per-minute producer. He’s averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he was even better during his rookie year. That makes him nearly impossible to avoid at a minimum salary, especially given his Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.04 vs. the Grizzlies.

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Fast Break

Al Horford got the night off in the Celtics’ last game, but he’s expected to return to the lineup vs. the Hornets. He could also pick up a few additional minutes given the team’s current injury situation, and he’s averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute with Brown off the floor this season.

Jerami Grant would be another strong option to consider if Lillard is unavailable for the Blazers. Grant took over as one of the team’s top scoring threats when Lillard was sidelined earlier this year, increasing his usage rate by +4.6%. He averaged 37.61 FanDuel points in those contests, so he would offer solid upside at $7,000 vs. the Mavericks.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

We have plenty of value available on this slate, so paying up for someone like Joel Embiid is definitely viable. Embiid has been a bit overshadowed by guys like Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic of late, but he’s turned in some ridiculous numbers in his own right. He’s actually failed to return value in his past two games, but he’s played 27.6 and 23.9 minutes in two blowout victories. With that in mind, his 47.5 and 55.75 DraftKings points are actually pretty impressive. Overall, Embiid has averaged 1.74 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is just slightly lower than Doncic’s slate-leading mark of 1.78.

Embiid is available at a significant discount compared to Luka, especially at just $11,000 on DraftKings. He also draws a superior matchup, and Embiid torched the Jazz for 59 points in their first meeting this season. He would be even more appealing if Harris is ultimately ruled out, but either way, Embiid stands out as one of the top studs on the slate.

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Value

On the other side of that matchup, Walker Kessler is going to have his hands full trying to combat Embiid. Foul trouble is a definite possibility, but Kessler should provide nice value if he can stay on the floor. He’s seen a nice uptick in playing time with Kelly Olynyk out of the lineup, and he’s scored at least 38.25 DraftKings points in two of his past three games. Kessler has averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he’s capable of taking advantage of an expanded workload.

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Fast Break

Onyeka Okongwu was an absolute monster on Friday, finishing with 65.0 FanDuel points thanks to 18 points, 20 rebounds, four assists, two steals, and four blocks. I wouldn’t expect a repeat on Saturday, but Okongwu should still provide excellent value. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his past eight games on FanDuel, and he should continue to play a few additional minutes with Clint Capela sidelined. His matchup vs. the Raptors is also a good one, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.29.

No one is going to play Mason Plumlee on this slate, but all the guy has done recently is return value. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +9.77 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, and he’s coming off 44.0 FanDuel points in his last outing. He’s playing more than 30 minutes on most nights, and he’s increased his production to an elite 1.24 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. His 12 Pro Trends are tied with Siakam for the most at the position, making him a nice contrarian target for tournaments.