NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Saturday, Feb. 4): Mavericks Providing Massive Value

Saturday features a seven-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Use promo code LABS to get a $100 sign-up bonus for NBA player props on PrizePicks.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

It’s going to be important to monitor the Mavericks’ injury report on Saturday. They’ve already ruled out Luka Doncic and Christian Wood, leaving the team without their two best scorers.

Spencer Dinwiddie is also questionable, and he’s going to have to carry a massive workload if he’s active. He’s increased his usage rate by +13.3% and his assist rate by +17.6% with Doncic and Wood off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.21 DraftKings points per minute. Dinwiddie played 41.3 minutes in his only other game without Doncic and Wood this season, and he responded with 55.5 DraftKings points. That was good for a Plus/Minus of +19.1 at his $7,400 salary.

Dinwiddie is priced at just $7,100 on Saturday, so he clearly has substantial upside if he’s in the lineup. The Mavericks are also in a massive pace-up spot vs. the Warriors, who have played at the fastest pace in the league this season.

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Value

The Heat are going to be without a host of players on Saturday, including Kyle Lowry. Gabe Vincent is also questionable, but he’s managed to suit up through a questionable tag in each of the past three games. He will likely take Lowry’s spot in the starting lineup if he’s able to play, which would make him an excellent value at just $3,500 on DraftKings.

Vincent has typically thrived when starting in place of Lowry. He’s played five games with Lowry sidelined this season and has averaged 30.6 DraftKings points over 35.4 minutes per game. He’s not projected for quite as many minutes on Saturday, but he should play more than enough to return value at his current price tag.

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Fast Break

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has had a phenomenal season for the Thunder, averaging 30.8 points, 5.6 assists, 4.8 rebounds, 1.7 steals, and 1.1 blocks per game. He’s averaged 1.46 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, which is the top mark among Saturday’s point guards. His salary has decreased to $10,200 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 88%, and he draws an excellent matchup vs. the Rockets. They rank just 28th in defensive efficiency, so this is an awesome buy-low opportunity.

Alec Burks has started the past four games for the Pistons, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each. He’s averaged 0.99 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he should continue to thrive with a few extra minutes. He’s a good bet to return value at $5,100.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Mikal Bridges has had to take on a slightly different role in his fifth professional season. Bridges had previously served as the ultimate glue guy, giving the Suns elite defensive production without needing the ball on offense. However, injuries to Devin Booker, Cam Payne, and Landry Shamet have forced Bridges into a much larger workload of late. He’s posted a career-high 19.0% usage rate this season, and that number has spiked to 24.6% over his past 10 games. Unsurprisingly, Bridges has provided more fantasy value than usual during that stretch, posting an average Plus/Minus of +3.93 on DraftKings.

Bridges’ increased scoring prowess could be on full display vs. the Pistons. They rank 29th in defensive efficiency, and the Suns’ implied team total ranks fifth on the slate. Bridges also continues to play as many minutes as anyone in basketball, so he has a very safe floor in this spot.

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Value

The shorthanded Rockets have the potential to be even more shorthanded on Saturday. We’re still waiting on Jalen Green’s status, but Kevin Porter Jr. and Eric Gordon have already been ruled out. Jae’Sean Tate is also unlikely to play, so the team could be extremely thin on the wing.

That gives a huge boost to Josh Christopher. He has the potential to rack up fantasy points, averaging 0.85 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s currently projected for 30 minutes in our NBA Models. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.30 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool). Christopher is a better per-minute producer than most of the players in that sample, so he could do some serious damage vs. the Thunder.

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Fast Break

Tyler Herro is another player who should benefit from the absence of Lowry. He’s averaged just under 40 DraftKings points in six games without Lowry this season, playing just under 38 minutes per game. Herro is particularly appealing on FanDuel, where his $6,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%.

Josh Green should also see a sizable workload for the Mavericks. He’s already been a big part of their game plan recently, logging at least 32.0 minutes in four of their past five games. He played 29.4 minutes in the lone exception, and he’s responded with a positive Plus/Minus in all five contests. Green has increased his usage rate (+2.3%), assist rate (+5.8%), and rebound rate (+0.4%) with Doncic and Wood off the floor, so he has the potential for an even better performance on Saturday.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

The top of the small forward position is significantly more appealing on FanDuel than DraftKings. Not only are there more options to choose from due to the multi-positional eligibility, but most of those players are better values as well.

Paul George stands out as one of the better values. His $8,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%, while his 11 Pro Trends rank second at the position. PG13 hasn’t been quite as effective recently, averaging just 1.11 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, but he has historically been able to provide value at this price tag. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.30 with a comparable price tag this season, and he shouldn’t command much ownership vs. the Knicks. Overall, he’s an interesting contrarian option for tournaments.

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Value

Tim Hardaway Jr. is another member of the Mavericks who will have to pick up the slack offensively. He’s increased his usage rate by +4.6% with Doncic and Wood off the floor this season, and he’s currently projected for more than 36 minutes in our NBA Models. Hardaway has a wide range of outcomes since most of his fantasy value comes from his jump shooting, but he doesn’t have much bust potential at his current salary. He’s way too cheap at $5,300 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 86%.

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Fast Break

On DraftKings, Reggie Bullock has some appeal for the Mavs. Bullock is one of the worst per-minute producers in basketball, averaging just 0.50 DraftKings points per minute this season. However, he’s still posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.82 over his past 10 games. He has three games with at least 27.0 DraftKings points in his past eight, so he has a bit of upside at $3,400.

The Heat are expected to utilize an eight-man rotation on Saturday, so most of their roster is worth considering. That includes Max Strus, who is priced at just $3,800 on DraftKings. He’s currently projected for 28 minutes in our NBA Models, and Strus has averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.82 with a comparable salary and minute projection.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

There is more than enough value on this slate to pay up for a super stud like Giannis Antetokounmpo, but Jimmy Butler stands out as the better value at just $7,400 on DraftKings. That’s a low price tag for Butler even if the team was at full strength, so he’s a clear target with the team shorthanded. Butler hasn’t been at his best recently, averaging 1.18 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, but he has historically been one of the biggest beneficiaries with Lowry out of the lineup. He’s averaged 33.6 minutes in eight games without Lowry this season, and he’s responded with 45.03 DraftKings points per game.

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Value

Trendon Watford is priced at the minimum on DraftKings, and he’s coming off 34.25 DraftKings points in 29.5 minutes. He’s not projected for quite as many minutes on Saturday, but he should still see a nice uptick in playing time with Jusuf Nurkic sidelined. He’s averaged 0.80 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to potentially return value.

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Fast Break

Paying up for Giannis is obviously a viable option on this slate. He’s been on a massive heater recently, scoring at least 59.5 DraftKings points in five straight games. He’s gone for at least 70.5 DraftKings points in three of them, and very few players can match his upside. His matchup vs. the Heat isn’t ideal, but Giannis still leads all players in median projection in our NBA Models.

Are you getting bored of reading about the Mavericks yet? Dorian Finney-Smith has been excellent for the Mavs recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +6.83 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. He’s gone for at least 33.25 DraftKings points in three of his past four games, and he’s projected for just under 38 minutes on Saturday’s slate. He’s increased his production to 0.78 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he stands out as one of the best values of the day.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Nikola Jokic is the other super stud on this slate, and he has a far superior matchup than Giannis. However, Jokic is currently questionable with a hamstring injury and plays in the last game of the evening. That means there’s a good chance we won’t know his status until after lineup lock, so there’s a bit of risk with locking him into your lineup. If he does get ruled out, you’re not going to have a ton of flexibility in terms of late swaps.

Still, Jokic has played in each of the team’s past three games, and he’s been an absolute monster when on the floor recently. He’s triple-doubled in eight of his past 10 games, including a casual 22 points, 14 boards, and 16 assists in his last outing. He also shot a hyper-efficient 9-13 from the field and played just 32.7 minutes, so you’re not going to see a more efficient performance. The Hawks have allowed the fifth-most points in the paint per game, so Jokic could be poised for another monster outing if he’s in the lineup.

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Value

Dwight Powell is yet another option for the Mavericks. He’s projected for 32.1 minutes at just $4,100 on DraftKings, and centers have feasted against the Warriors this season. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.18, which is the top mark at the position on Saturday’s slate. Powell doesn’t typically provide much of a ceiling, but he did go off for 37.75 DraftKings points last week vs. the Wizards.

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Fast Break

Nikola Vucevic is priced at just $8,200 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97%. His 13 Pro Trends are also tied for the most at the position, and he owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.74 vs. the Blazers. Vucevic has been absolutely rolling of late, posting an average Plus/Minus of +8.59 over his past 10 games, so there’s no reason he should be this affordable.

Jalen Duren has averaged 1.23 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, which is an elite figure for someone who costs just $5,900. His also projected for just under 32 minutes and 6.2% ownership, so he’s an interesting option if you’re looking for a different type of roster construction.