NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Saturday, Dec. 3): Don’t Sleep on Jerami Grant

Saturday features a four-game main slate starting at 8 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock. Use our FanDuel promo to get three months of free NBA League Pass. 

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

The Warriors are starting to turn things around, but Steph Curry has been red hot from Day 1. He’s averaged 30.8 points per game this season while shooting 51.3% from the field, 43.9% from 3-point range, and 90.9% from the free throw line. He’s attempting to be just the third player in NBA history with multiple 50-40-90 seasons, and Curry is already the only player to ever do it while averaging more than 30 points per game.

Curry has posted an average Plus/Minus of +2.19 on DraftKings through his first 21 games, and he has an outstanding matchup Saturday vs. the Rockets. They rank just 28th in defensive efficiency, and the Warriors’ implied team total of 121.0 ranks first on the slate. There’s also a chance that Klay Thompson gets the night off, and Curry would be asked to do a bit more offensively in that scenario.

---

Value

The Timberwolves remain without Karl-Anthony Towns, who is expected to miss at least a month with a calf injury. Jordan McLaughlin is also questionable, but Jaylen Nowell should see a significant role regardless of his status. Nowell has been a phenomenal producer this season, averaging 1.08 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s racked up at least 28.25 DraftKings points in three straight games. He’s coming off 31.1 minutes and 38.75 DraftKings points in his last outing, and he’s undoubtedly underpriced if he’s going to continue to play that much. Nowell is a steal at just $4,300 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 93%.

---

Fast Break

Jalen Green leads the position with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $6,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%. He’s been red hot after a slow start to the year, posting an average Plus/Minus of +6.10 over his past 10 games. There is some blowout risk against the Warriors, but it’s a good spot if this game stays competitive. The Warriors have played at the fourth-fastest pace this season, and they’re 19th in defensive efficiency.

D’Angelo Russell didn’t see a huge spike in value in his first game without Towns, but he still finished with 40.0 FanDuel points in 37.5 minutes. However, he increased his production to 1.13 FanDuel points per minute in games without Towns last year, so he has the potential for better performances moving forward.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

The Blazers have the potential to be pretty shorthanded on Saturday. Damian Lillard is expected to return to the lineup on Sunday, but he remains out of the lineup for the time being. Nassir Little also remains out, while Josh Hart is doubtful.

Anfernee Simons should see a significant boost in value. He’s increased his usage rate by +8.0% with Lillard and Hart off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.26 DraftKings points per minute. He’s currently projected for a position-high 38.2 minutes in our NBA Models, and his matchup vs. the Jazz is also a good one. They’ve struggled mightily on the defensive end of late, and they’ve fallen all the way down to 23rd in defensive efficiency for the year.

---

Value

If Thompson is out of the lineup on Saturday, it’s safe to fire up Jordan Poole. Poole has moved into the starting lineup in games that Thompson has missed this season, He’s averaged 39.63 DraftKings points in four games without Thompson, so he should be able to provide plenty of value at his current price tag across the industry.

---

Fast Break

Jordan Clarkson is coming off a poor showing in his last game, but he wasn’t really needed vs. the Pacers. He played just 29 minutes in a blowout win, and Clarkson is projected for closer to 34 minutes on Saturday. He’s increased his usage rate by +1.4% with Mike Conley off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.09 FanDuel points per minute. Clarkson is an elite value on FanDuel, where his $6,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander missed Wednesday’s game vs. the Spurs, and he’s questionable for Saturday. The Thunder are not really trying to win games this season, so don’t be surprised if he sits out again. Lu Dort has been one of the biggest beneficiaries when SGA has been off the floor this season, increasing his usage rate by +6.0%. He’s averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute in that scenario, so he would have some appeal if SGA is ruled out.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Anthony Edwards is the most expensive player at the position, and he leads all SFs in median and ceiling projection. He hasn’t had the start to the season he was hoping for, but the injury to Towns should help him from a fantasy perspective. He’s increased his usage rate by +4.0% with Towns off the floor, resulting in an average of 1.21 DraftKings points per minute. He’s averaged just 1.08 DraftKings points per minute in general this season, so that’s a significant increase.

Edwards racked up 56.75 DraftKings points in his first full game without Towns this season, and he should be able to do some damage vs. the Thunder. Nearly 32% of Edwards’ shots this season have come at the rim, and the Thunder allow the fourth-most points per game in the paint.

---

Value

Kyle Anderson started and played nearly 40 minutes in the Timberwolves’ last game, and he’s a capable per-minute producer. He’s averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he’s always an appealing option when he’s expected to play significant minutes. He’s currently projected for more than 32 minutes in our NBA Models, and Anderson has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.11 with a comparable salary and minute projection (per the Trends tool). Anderson also leads all small forwards on DraftKings with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.04.

---

Fast Break

Justise Winslow has seen plenty of playing time for the Blazers of late, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five straight games on FanDuel. He racked up 30.0 FanDuel points across 36.3 minutes in his last outing, and I’d expect similar production on Saturday.

Andrew Wiggins is another player who would benefit if Thompson is ruled out. He’s increased his usage rate by +2.9% in games without Thompson this season, and while that hasn’t led to a spike in production, it does give him a bit more upside in a fantastic matchup.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Jerami Grant has been absolutely balling for the Blazers of late. He’s posted a usage rate of at least 30.4% in four straight games, and he’s responded with at least 43.5 DraftKings points in all four contests. He’s taken on a leading role with Lillard sidelined, and his salary has yet to reflect his increased upside. His salary is up to $7,700 on DraftKings, but that still results in a Bargain Rating of 80%. Grant leads the position with eight Pro Trends, giving him significant appeal vs. the Jazz.

---

Value

Trendon Watford replaced Hart in the Blazers’ starting lineup in their last game, and he picked up a double-double in approximately 31 minutes. It was a “lazy man” double-double – he had exactly 10 points and 10 rebounds – but that was still good enough for 24.5 DraftKings points. Watford is projected for another 32 minutes on Saturday at just $3,700, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.39 on DraftKings. That makes him one of the top value options on the slate.

---

Fast Break

Aleksej Pokusevski’s minutes vary wildly from night to night, but that makes him a solid tournament option. He’s projected for less than 2% ownership on DraftKings, but he has significant upside if he hits his minute’s ceiling. He’s averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and very few players in this price range possess the same type of upside.

Paolo Banchero has seemingly hit the rookie wall. He’s slowed down after a tremendous start to the season, but he has posted a positive Plus/Minus in two of his past three games on FanDuel. His 11 Pro Trends lead the position, and his $7,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Jusuf Nurkic is coming off a quiet night in his last contest, finishing with just 25.0 DraftKings points in 31.7 minutes. However, he had scored at least 35.0 DraftKings points in each of his previous five games, so there are plenty of reasons to believe in a bounceback. He’s averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s in a potential smash spot vs. the Jazz. Their defense has been extremely vulnerable against opposing big men, ranking dead last in points in the paint allowed and 29th in defensive rebound rate. It gives Nurkic an Opponent Plus/Minus of +7.43, so it’s the perfect spot for him to right the ship.

---

Value

Kevon Looney doesn’t typically possess much upside, although he is coming off 31.9 FanDuel points in his last outing. However, Looney is a very consistent fantasy producer. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in eight of his past nine games, and the lone exception was a game where he played just 5.4 minutes. The Warriors rested all their key players in that contest, but Looney clearly wanted to keep his consecutive games streak going. Barring any Warriors’ shenanigans, he’s a good bet to pay off his $4,300 salary.

---

Fast Break

Draymond Green also has center eligibility for the Warriors, and he’s seen a nice bump in fantasy production of late. Steve Kerr made the decision to stagger Green’s minutes, essentially giving him a chance to run the bench units. Green has responded with a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games, and he’s scored at least 40.8 FanDuel points in two of his past three. He has upside at just $6,300.

Alperen Sengun is down to $6,200 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 90%. The big man is super talented, and he’s averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute this season. His production has been down recently, but he showcased his upside with 65.25 DraftKings points just four games ago. I love the idea of buying low on him in tournaments.