NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Saturday, Apr. 8): Kris Dunn has Massive Upside

Saturday features a three-game slate starting at 3:30 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Use our PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 sign-up bonus on NBA player pick’ems.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

We’re down to the final two days of the NBA regular season, and there are still a few things left to be decided. Everything is all set in the Eastern Conference, but there could still be some significant shuffling in the West. The fifth-place Warriors and ninth-place Pelicans are separated by just 1.0 game in the standings, so the final day of the season will determine who gets a guaranteed playoff spot and who has the fight through the play-in tournament.

Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem like we’re going to get a ton of answers on Saturday. The only team playing for seeding on this slate – the Clippers – is a massive 17-point favorite. With that in mind, it could be another day full of players getting ruled out for rest.

At point guard, Kris Dunn stands out as an elite option. The Jazz are going to be extremely thin on Saturday, with Talen-Horton Tucker and Kelly Olynyk joining Lauri Markkanen, Jordan Clarkson, and Collin Sexton on the sidelines. Dunn has averaged an elite 1.32 DraftKings points per minute with all those players off the floor this season, and he should see a significant spike in playing time vs. the Nuggets. He’s currently projected for more than 34 minutes in our NBA Models, and he leads the position in projected fantasy points by a wide margin.

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Value

The Blazers are down to their D squad at this point, which includes Shaquille Harrison. He was only signed to the team around a week ago, but he’s played well since joining the rotation. He’s scored at least 21.0 DraftKings points in three straight games, including 33.5 in his last contest. Overall, he’s averaged 1.10 DraftKings points per minute, and he should see another sizable workload given the team’s massive injury report. Shaedon Sharpe is listed as probable, but they have nine players listed as out and another two listed as questionable.

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Fast Break

Mike Conley stands out as a strong option on FanDuel, where his $5,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. The Timberwolves still have an outside shot of getting to the No. 6 seed in the West, so they should take Saturday’s game vs. the Spurs seriously. Conley has averaged 0.95 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s played at least 33 minutes in back-to-back games.

Bones Hyland has always been an outstanding per-minute producer, and he’s averaged 1.22 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. His playing time is inconsistent, but he could get a bit more run than usual against the lowly Spurs. The Clippers have massive offensive potential in this matchup, and their implied team total of 123.5 ranks first on the slate.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Anthony Edwards stands out in a tier of his own at shooting guard. He’s currently projected for nearly 13 more points than every other option at the position on DraftKings, which is a massive gap. Being the highest-scoring player at your position is more important than usual on a three-game slate, giving Edwards plenty of appeal.

Edwards also stands out as underpriced on DraftKings, where his $8,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 89%. He should find plenty of success against the Spurs, who have been one of the best matchups in fantasy this season. They rank dead last in defensive efficiency, and they’ve also played at the second-fastest pace.

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Value

Johnny Juzang has gotten a chance to play a decent role for the Jazz recently, and he should see an even larger workload on Saturday. He’s currently projected for 28 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s priced at just $3,600 on DraftKings. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.59 (per the Trends tool).

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Fast Break

Ochai Agbaji was the No. 14 pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, and he’s been a pleasant surprise for the Jazz recently. He’s averaged 30.9 minutes and 14.6 points over his past 11 games, and he racked up 36.3 DraftKings points two games ago. He wasn’t nearly as impressive in his last outing, but he did post a 28.6% usage rate. He attempted a career-high 18 shots in that contest, so he has some upside if he shoots the ball a bit better on Saturday. He’s underpriced at $5,100 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97%.

Skylar Mays is another strong value on FanDuel, where his $5,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. Mays has averaged 1.16 FanDuel points per minute since joining the Blazers rotation, and he has at least 26.9 FanDuel points in his past three contests. He’s projected for 34 minutes vs. the Clippers, so he should be able to continue that trend.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Kawhi Leonard is one of the only true “studs” available on this slate, but he hasn’t looked very studly of late. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in six of his past eight games, and he managed just 41.25 DraftKings points in nearly 43 minutes vs. the Lakers.

Leonard has played at least 41.4 minutes in back-to-back games, but he probably won’t need to play that much vs. the Blazers. If the Clippers are able to take care of business early, Leonard could spend the fourth quarter on the bench.

Still, Leonard ranks second on the slate in both median and ceiling projection, trailing only Nikola Jokic. Jokic is questionable for the Nuggets, who have already clinched the top spot in the West, so there’s a chance that Leonard ends up as the top stud by tip-off. That increases his appeal on a slate with plenty of value.

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Value

Simone Fontecchio is another player who should see an expanded workload for the Jazz on Saturday. He hasn’t been the best DFS option this season, averaging just 0.65 FanDuel points per minute. However, he does see a +4.6% usage bump with all of the currently unavailable members of the team off the floor, so he carries a bit more upside than usual. He should also see a few additional minutes, and he’s very affordable across the industry. He’s particularly appealing at $4,400 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 90%.

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Fast Break

Jabari Walker owns a Bargain Rating of 99% on FanDuel, and he’s seen a decent uptick in production of late. He’s averaged 0.85 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games. He’s played 20.3 minutes or fewer in three of those contests, but he’s projected for closer to 28 minutes on Saturday’s slate.

Nicolas Batum is another value option worth considering on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $4,300, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%. Batum played nearly 30 minutes in the team’s last game, and he erupted for more than 40 fantasy points last week vs. the Bulls. His performances since then have been subpar, but he clearly has some upside in an elite matchup.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Karl-Anthony Towns is coming off his best performance since returning to the lineup, finishing with 48.5 DraftKings points in just 30.9 minutes. He racked up 22 points, 14 boards, and five assists, but he’s unfortunately listed as questionable vs. the Spurs. However, head coach Chris Finch told reporters that the plan was for Towns to play on both Saturday and Sunday, so there’s a good chance he’s in the lineup.

When Towns has been available this season, he hasn’t been the same elite fantasy producer that he was in the past. He’s averaged 1.22 DraftKings points per minute, and that figure has dipped to just 1.11 over the past month.

Still, all the studs on this slate are going to get a little boost, and Towns benefits from one of the best possible matchups. The Spurs have allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards, and they’ve allowed the second most fantasy points to opposing centers.

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Value

Luka Samanic gets the nod as the top value power forward. Like most of the members of the Jazz, he should benefit from the current state of their roster. Samanic has been a solid per-minute producer this season, averaging 0.87 FanDuel points per minute, and he’s projected for just under 34 minutes in our NBA Models. That gives him one of the top points-per-dollar projections on the slate.

Samanic stands out as a strong option across the industry, but he’s an elite value on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $4,700, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 90%.

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Fast Break

Kyle Anderson continues to turn in big performances for the Timberwolves. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past six games, and he’s gone for at least 41.3 FanDuel points in three of them. He’s coming off a subpar outing on Tuesday, but this is the perfect matchup for a bounce-back performance.

Juan Toscano-Anderson is another potential value option for the Jazz. He hasn’t been quite as impressive as Samanic on a per-minute basis, but he’s very affordable across the industry. He’s also expected to see around 28 minutes, which should be enough for him to return value.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Nikola Jokic is a serious question mark on this slate. There’s a good chance he doesn’t suit up at all, and if he does, there’s no guarantee he sees a full workload. That makes him extremely risky.

However, Jokic is clearly the best DFS player among Saturday’s options. He’s averaged 1.75 DraftKings points per minute this season, and no one else on this slate has averaged more than 1.26. Even a limited Jokic still has a good chance to be the highest-scoring player on Saturday.

All the uncertainty also means that Jokic should carry reduced ownership. He’s currently projected for just 22% ownership on DraftKings and 21% on FanDuel, which is significantly lower than the other “studs.” Anytime you can get a player of Jokic’s caliber at that level on a three-game slate, it’s something you should strongly consider.

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Value

Udoka Azubuike should see most of the center minutes for the Jazz, which makes him the most appealing value at the position. He’s averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute for the year, so he shouldn’t need much playing time to pay off his current salary.

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Fast Break

Rudy Gobert is an excellent pay-up option on FanDuel, where his $7,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. He hasn’t been super productive since Towns returned to the lineup, but a matchup vs. the Spurs could change things. Gobert owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.07, which is easily the top mark on the slate.