NBA DFS Picks Breakdown on DraftKings (Wednesday, October 23)

After a tasty two-game appetizer on Tuesday, the NBA returns in earnest on Wednesday night. There’s a 10-game main slate for DFS purposes starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Stud

Most of the position groups are pretty loaded on this slate, but point guard might be the strongest overall. There are seven players projected for a Plus/Minus of at least +2.00 on DraftKings.

Immanuel Quickley stands out as the best option at this deep position. He provided immense fantasy value after being traded from the Knicks to the Raptors last season, averaging 18.6 points and 6.9 assists in 33.3 minutes per game. The result was an average of 1.13 DraftKings points per minute.

Quickley has always been an outstanding fantasy producer; he just rarely got the opportunity to play big minutes in New York. That shouldn’t be a problem for the Raptors, especially with R.J. Barrett currently sidelined with an injury. He’s projected for 34 minutes Wednesday vs. the Cavaliers, and Quickley has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.08 with a comparable minute projection (per the Trends tool).

The Cavaliers are a tough matchup – they were seventh in defensive efficiency and 24th in pace last season – but this is simply too cheap of a price tag for Quickley.

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Value

Dennis Schroder is another outstanding source of value. After trading away Mikal Bridges this offseason, the cupboard is pretty bare for the Nets offensively. Schroder is going to have to pick up the slack.

Schroder was a decent source of production last season, averaging 0.93 DraftKings points per minute, and that figure increased to 1.10 with Bridges off the floor. He increased his assist rate by nearly +5% in that split.

The Nets also start the year with a strong matchup vs. the Hawks. Atlanta was 27th in defensive efficiency last season, and they also played at the sixth-fastest pace. The Nets don’t figure to do a ton of scoring this season, but opening night could be an exception.

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Fast Break

The 76ers’ new “Big Three” is down to a big one on Wednesday. Joel Embiid and Paul George are both out of the lineup, leaving Tyrese Maxey to handle most of the scoring responsibilities. He increased his usage rate by +3.3% with Embiid off the floor last season, and it increased by +6.23% without Embiid and Tobias Harris. He averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute in that split, and he leads the position in ceiling projection on Wednesday.

Don’t forget about Steph Curry. After leading Team USA to the gold medal this summer, Curry returns to a Warriors squad that looks a lot weaker than usual. Klay Thompson is gone, and the team didn’t bring in much to replace him. Curry averaged 1.38 DraftKings points per minute sans Thompson last season, and he’s taking on a Blazers’ squad that was 23rd in defensive efficiency.

Is Ben Simmons back? That remains to be seen, but he’ll at least be in the lineup on Wednesday. We have him projected for a healthy 26 minutes, and Simmons has always been a solid per-minute producer when he’s actually on the floor. If he’s going to play that much, he’s too cheap at $5,900.

Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Shooting guard doesn’t stand out as a great position to pay up at on Wednesday, but if you’re going to go that route, Donovan Mitchell is probably your best option. He leads the position group in ceiling projection by a comfortable margin, and his average of 1.33 DraftKings points per minute last year is the top mark among Wednesday’s SGs.

Mitchell draws a strong matchup to start the year vs. Toronto. The Raptors were the fifth-worst team in terms of defensive efficiency last year, and they don’t figure to be much improved in 2024. The Cavaliers are currently implied for 116.0 points, which is the fourth-highest mark on the slate.

Mitchell is also a bit cheaper than usual at $8,700. He’s had a comparable salary with the Cavaliers in 68 previous contests, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.35. He’s not popping as an elite value on this slate, but his ceiling is undeniable.

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Value

Collin Sexton stands out as the clear top option at SG in our projections. From December through March of last season, Sexton averaged more than 21 points per game for the tanking Jazz. He supplemented his scoring production with averages of 5.5 assists and 2.7 rebounds while shooting better than 50% from the field and 40% from 3-point range. This wasn’t just empty production for a bad team; he was playing really good basketball.

The Jazz will likely tank again down the stretch, meaning there’s a good chance that Sexton finishes the season elsewhere. However, expect him to be one of Utah’s top options as long as he’s in the lineup. We have him projected for 32 minutes Wednesday vs. the Grizzlies, and Sexton averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute last season. Even when sharing the court with Lauri Markkanen and Keyonte George – the other two top options for Utah – Sexton still averaged 1.15 DraftKings points per minute. He easily leads the position in projected Plus/Minus, and he’s second only to Quickley on the entire slate.

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Fast Break

If you’re looking for a pure punt play, you could do a lot worse than Jon Konchar. He’s priced at just $3,300, but he should have a decent role for the Grizzlies on opening night. The Grizzlies are also implied for 115.75 points in an elite matchup vs. the Jazz.

The Pelicans made a big move this offseason by acquiring Dejounte Murray, and it will be interesting to see how that impacts the rest of the lineup. However, C.J. McCollum seems underpriced at $6,900. He’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.60 with a comparable price tag.

Is Jaden Ivey poised for a breakout? He looked much improved during the preseason, averaging 15.0 points per game in just 21.2 minutes of action. He also shot better than 60% from the field and 50% from 3-point range, so he could be ready for a career year. The game between the Pistons and Pacers should also be one of the best of the day from a fantasy perspective, leading the slate with a 235.5-point total.

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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Lauri Markkanen won the Most Improved Player award in 2022-23, but he was limited to just 55 games last season. However, he was pretty much the same player when he was on the floor. He averaged 23.2 points and 8.2 rebounds per game while knocking down a career-high 3.2 3-pointers per contest.

For fantasy purposes, Markkanen led Wednesday’s SF group with an average of 1.23 DraftKings points per minute. That’s not bad for the guy with the fourth-highest salary at the position. Markkanen checks in at just $7,500 vs. the Grizzlies, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.11 with a comparable price tag over the past two seasons.

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Value

Kelly Oubre is another potential source of scoring for the shorthanded Sixers. He’s never been shy about getting his shots up when his team needs him to. He averaged 17.1 attempts per game for a dreadful Hornets team two years ago, and he responded with a career-best 20.3 points per game.

Oubre didn’t need to shoot nearly as much last year with the 76ers, but things changed a bit when the team was shorthanded. He averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute with Embiid and Harris off the floor, and he increased his usage rate by +4.51%. He’s projected for 32 minutes in our NBA Models for Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Bucks, and he leads the position in projected Plus/Minus.

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Fast Break

The Clippers are going to look vastly different this year than they did in 2023-24. George is gone, and Kawhi Leonard is out indefinitely to start the season. With both players out of the picture, Norman Powell should take on a significantly larger role. He averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute with both players off the floor last season, and he should approach 30 minutes vs. the Suns.

Zach LaVine is a major question mark at the moment. He doesn’t appear to be a part of the Bulls’ long-term plans, but he’s still there for the time being. That could lead to some big numbers with DeMar DeRozan now in Sacramento. He only played one game without DeRozan last season, but he averaged 1.22 DraftKings points per minute in seven games without him two years ago.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Giannis Antetokounmpo is playing basketball on Wednesday, which means he’s a reasonable choice for DFS lineups. That’s how good he is. No one else on Wednesday’s slate can come close to matching his production. He averaged 1.69 DraftKings points per minute last season, and no one else was above 1.34. His ceiling projection clears every other player in our NBA Models by nearly seven points.

His price tag is sky-high at $11,000, but it’s hard to argue he’s not worth every penny. He had a comparable salary in 46 games last season, and he averaged 59.98 DraftKings points and a +3.01 Plus/Minus.

Ultimately, I prefer a balanced lineup on Wednesday – there are lots of players in the midrange who feel underpriced – but Giannis breaking the slate is entirely possible.

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Value

If you are looking to go “stars and scrubs,” Jabari Walker stands out as an elite punt play. He’s priced at just $3,300 for the Blazers, but he’s projected for 26 minutes in our NBA Models. Historically, players with comparable price tags and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.36. Walker also averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute last season, so he’s better than the typical player you find in this price range.

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Fast Break

Zion Williamson is expected to be a game-time decision due to an illness. However, he’s definitely worth considering if he’s in the lineup. Williamson has always been an elite per-minute producer, and he averaged 1.28 DraftKings points per minute last season. That’s better than Kevin Durant and just slightly below Scottie Barnes, both of which are more expensive.

Is Year Four finally the year for Jonathan Kuminga? He’s struggled to find consistent playing time through his first three seasons, but he doesn’t have quite as many obstacles in front of him this year. He’s projected for 32 minutes on opening night, and if he sees that much playing time, he’s going to have a career year. He’s historically averaged 33.8 DraftKings points and a +7.19 Plus/Minus in 38 career games with at least 30 minutes.

Nikola Jovic is another value target. He averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute as a rookie, and he’s slotted for a bigger role in Year Two. He’s too cheap at $4,100.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Nikola Vucevic is similar to LaVine: stuck in no man’s land as a good player on a team that seemingly wants to rebuild. Still, for the time being, he should be a good source of fantasy value in Chicago. He was an elite source of fantasy production in games without DeRozan two years ago, averaging a robust 1.41 DraftKings points per minute. He wasn’t quite as productive in two games without DeRozan last year, but he still averaged 42.63 DraftKings points in 37.55 minutes per game.

Vucevic ultimately stands out as the best combination of value and upside if paying up at center. He leads all centers priced above $7,000 in projected Plus/Minus, and he leads the entire position group with nine Pro Trends. He also should garner a ton of ownership on this slate, making him an interesting differentiator for tournaments.

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Value

Most people will likely choose to pay down at center on Wednesday. There are some really strong values at the position, headlined by Nick Richards. Richards had a mini breakout last season, averaging 10.1 points and 8.8 rebounds in 51 games as a starter. He averaged just under 29 minutes per game as a member of the starting unit, and he has minimal competition for that role this season.

Ultimately, Richards has averaged 25.21 DraftKings points in 36 games with between 24 and 30 minutes. That number might not jump off the page, but it’s more than enough to pay off his $4,000 salary. He leads the position in terms of projected Plus/Minus.

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Fast Break

Brandon Clarke is another potential value option at center. He likely won’t see as much playing time as Richards, but he makes up for it with superior per-minute production. He averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute last season, so he doesn’t need much playing time to return value at $3,700.

Trayce Jackson-Davis had a strong debut season for the Warriors, averaging 1.12 DraftKings points per minute. He should see a bit more playing time in his sophomore campaign, and we have him projected for 24 minutes Wednesday vs. the Blazers.