Wednesday features two series that are going in opposite directions. Leading us off is the Celtics against the Cavaliers. The Celtics are looking to close out this series and are a ridiculous 14.5-point favorite. The late night hammer is the much more intriguing game between the Thunder and Mavericks. This series is tied at two games apiece, and the spread is under five points. Should be another exciting night of hoops!
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Become an All-Access Member Today
Lineup builder and optimizer
Real-time DFS models & projections
Data-driven analysis & tutorials
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had a mediocre first playoff game against the Pelicans but has turned in seven consecutive games with a positive Plus/Minus. In this series alone, Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 31.8 points, 9.8 rebounds, and seven assists per game with 11 blocks and five steals. He has been all over the floor stuffing the stat sheet in a variety of ways. Gilgeous-Alexander’s playoff usage rate has skyrocketed to 37.7% with the Thunder winning six of their eight playoff games this postseason.
In this pivotal Game 5, the Thunder are 4.5-point home favorites implied for 108.5 points. Including the playoffs, the Thunder are 36-9 at home this season. Expect Gilgeous-Alexander to be heavily involved yet again. Given his projected ceiling, Plus/Minus, and usage rate, Gilgeous-Alexander is an elite pay-up for tonight’s slate. His $10,100 salary is also resulting in a 97% Bargain Rating.
Value
Jrue Holiday was one of the key pieces for the Celtics opening up this series to give his team a 3-1 lead. In addition to his tenacious defense, Holiday averaged 17 points, 7.5 rebounds, and five assists per game in his last two contests while shooting 61.9% from the field and 58.3% from behind the arc. Priced at $5,800 and projected to play around 37 minutes, Holiday is one of the best pure values on the slate. The Celtics should roll and Holiday will be in the mix on both ends of the floor.
With a chance to close out the series and advance to the Eastern Conference Finals, the Celtics are a massive 14.5-point home favorite, implied for a slate-high 110 points. The Cavaliers continue to deal with injuries, which has put them behind the eight ball. It is difficult to see this series going past tonight. Holiday is a cheap way to get exposure to the best team and offense on the slate.
Fast Break
Despite dealing with several ailments, Luka Doncic recorded his first triple-double of the series last game with 18 points, 12 rebounds, and 10 assists. However, he accomplished that feat while shooting a very uncharacteristic 6-for-20 from the field with seven turnovers. If Doncic can find his shooting touch like he did last game in Oklahoma City, he will get back on track. The gap is closing fast, but Doncic still has the highest projected ceiling in our Player model for this two-game slate.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
With Luka Doncic hobbled, one would think that Kyrie Irving has been taking over this backcourt. Well, he has also had four lackluster performances. Irving has a negative Plus/Minus in each game of this series and has failed to record double-digit points in two of the four games. Looking to bounce back, Irving has the highest projected ceiling at the shooting guard position. After having a 26.7% usage rate in their series against the Clippers, it is odd to see his usage rate dip to 19.2% against the Thunder.
Irving is playing heavy minutes and averaging nine assists per game in his last three contests. However, if he is going to reach his ceiling, Irving will need to find a way to score the ball in this matchup. The Thunder have the second-best defensive rating during the postseason behind the Magic at 100.8 per game. It is time that Irving shows up to the fight and gives Doncic some much needed help.
Value
After scoring 25+ points in three-straight games, Derrick White has seen his production take a slide in these last three games, averaging just nine points per game. However, he still has the highest projected Plus/Minus at the shooting guard position and has dual guard eligibility. We have seen the upside that White can provide, so a bounce-back game feels inevitable. White is a little more expensive than his backcourt teammate Jrue Holiday but still is a fantastic value play that has an incredible ceiling.
During the regular season, White shot over 50% from behind the arc in his three games against the Cavaliers. He did the same in Game 1 but has failed to connect from long distance in his last three games. Playing at home and being a double-digit favorite, this is a great spot for White to find his shooting touch again. Let’s see if White can have another epic closeout game tonight.
Fast Break
Jaylen Brown has had a 35% usage rate during the playoffs but has a positive Plus/Minus in only four of his nine games. However, with Kristaps Porzingis still out for the Celtics, Brown has seen his production rise. With Porzingis off the floor this season, Brown had a team-high +2.97 DraftKings Plus/Minus and a near 2% usage rate increase. Most of Brown’s production comes from scoring the ball, but he has also flirted with a points and rebounds double-double in this last two games.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $500 deposit match.
NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Leading the slate with the highest projected Plus/Minus is Celtics’ star Jayson Tatum. He absolutely dominated the Cavaliers on the road in his last two games, averaging a double-double with 33 points and 12 rebounds per game. Tatum shot 25 field goal attempts and averaged a 38.9% usage rate in those two contests. His usage rate and rebounding takes a huge leap with Kristaps Porzingis out of the lineup. Tatum has the third-highest projected ceiling but is in the best matchup of the top three options.
Tatum’s $9,700 price tag is resulting in a 72% Bargain Rating. He looks incredible from a ceiling and value perspective, which is difficult to find on a two-game slate. Before his last two games, Tatum has had a mediocre playoff run. However, looking to keep the momentum going, Tatum has the highest projected ownership at over 60% tonight. He is the best pay-up option on the slate.
Value
With the Cavaliers potentially without Donovan Mitchell, Jarrett Allen, and Caris LeVert, Max Strus will likely be asked to repeat his Game 4 performance. Normally just a 3-point sniper, Strus had to do a little bit of everything last game with Mitchell and Allen out. He finished with 15 points, seven rebounds, and seven assists totaling over 40 DraftKings points. Keep an eye on the status of all three of these Cavaliers’ players, as that would provide a significant boost to Strus if all three were to sit tonight.
The writing is on the wall for the Cavaliers’ season, especially with their injury situation. They are implied for a slate-low 95.5 points and are nearly 15-point underdogs. Even if Mitchell, Allen, and LeVert are out, do not get carried away with the Cavaliers value. This is a brutal matchup, and it would be shocking to see them score over 100 points. Strus is one of the few bright spots at a great price point.
Fast Break
Even with a 5-for-19 shooting night, Jalen Williams had his highest DraftKings point total of the series. The versatile forward finished the night with 14 points, nine rebounds, six assists, and four steals to record a positive Plus/Minus for the first time all series. With point guard and small forward eligibility, Williams is easy to fit into all lineup builds. He has proven to be one of the best players remaining in the playoffs. His $7,600 is a little rich, but Williams has been extremely consistent this postseason.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Evan Mobley is one of the few Cavaliers player worth rostering on this two-game slate. After back-to-back double-doubles in Games 1 and 2, Mobley still averaged 18 points and 8.5 rebounds per game in his last two games. Playing without Jarrett Allen has provided a huge boost to Mobley’s production. He has a 27.5% usage rate in this series and is shooting 62.7% from the field. He is only projected for around 20% ownership, so he is a strong contrarian pay-up option with the Cavaliers’ injuries.
This interior matchup is much easier for Mobley without having to go against Kristaps Porzingis. He has eight Pro Trends and his mid-range $7,500 salary is resulting in a 72% Bargain Rating. With power forward and center eligibility, Mobley is one of the best big men on the slate. He may be on an island trying to force a Game 6 back in Cleveland, making Mobley an even better option tonight.
Value
Filling in for Kristaps Porzingis in the Celtics frontcourt is veteran Al Horford. He has started in every game since Porzingis went down with his injury. The 37-year-old has had a disappointing playoff run thus far but is always a threat to get hot from the perimeter and grab more rebounds than expected. Horford is $5,300 and is projected for a little over 30% ownership. His salary is the lowest it has been since being moved into the starting lineup, but he also has yet to record a positive Plus/Minus.
Through 11 games in the playoffs, the Cavaliers have been the third-worst rebounding team at 47.2%. Not having Allen has been a major blow to their defense and rebounding. The cheap price tag makes Horford look better on this two-game slate, and he doesn’t have much competition. He is projected to play around 32 minutes, which is more than enough time to pay off his salary.
Fast Break
Something has gotten into PJ Washington, because he is cooking right now. In his last three games, Washington is averaging 25.7 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 46.4 DraftKings points per game with two double-doubles. His usage rate has jumped to 21.9%, as he has averaged 20 field goal attempts per game during that time. Washington’s salary is up to $6,300, but that doesn’t seem like enough given how great of a play he has been recently. He is a fantastic option in all formats.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Second on the slate in projected ownership and Plus/Minus is Thunder center Chet Holmgren. Priced at $7,000 with a 91% Bargain Rating, Holmgren has a positive Plus/Minus in three of the four games in this series. During that four-game stretch, Holmgren is averaging 15.3 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 3.3 blocks per game. He has dominated both ends of the floor and has been a key piece to the Thunder’s success this postseason. Holmgren is simply too cheap for his projected ceiling tonight.
Both the Thunder and Mavericks were in the bottom five of rebounding percentage during the regular season. Even with Holmgren being undersized for a center, his length causes havoc at the rim. He ranked fourth in blocks per game during the regular season and leads all playoff players with three blocks per game. This is a great matchup for Holmgren to continue his dominance.
Value
Mavericks’ backup center Dereck Lively has averaged 24 DraftKings points the past two games. He captured four blocks last game to go along with his seven points and six rebounds. Lively will continue to come off the bench and play around 23 minutes. However, at his $4,200 salary, Lively is one of the best value plays on the slate. He is projected for over 50% ownership and has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus at the center position to only Holmgren.
Lively has been closing games for the Mavericks recently, which bodes well for his value in tonight’s game. He is an active player when given the minutes. Lively has recorded a 21.2% usage rate in this series and is the beneficiary to many dump-offs from Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. If Lively is going to continue to play this many minutes and close, he is an elite value play in all formats.
Fast Break
When dumpster diving for value, look no further than Thunder’s backup center Jaylin Williams. Despite being projected to play only 13 minutes, Williams is a fantastic value in a stars-and-scrubs lineup build. In the four games in this series, Williams is averaging 1.18 DraftKings points per minute. When he is on the floor, Williams is extremely active both scoring the ball and on the glass. It won’t take much for Williams to pay off his $3,100 salary. He is drawing around 25% ownership as well.
