NBA DFS Picks Breakdown on DraftKings (Wednesday, March 19)

Wednesday features an 11-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.

Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Stud

There is going to be a ton of value on this slate, so paying up for someone like Luka Doncic is definitely viable. He has the top ceiling projection at point guard by more than 10 points, and he’s been dominant in recent games without LeBron James. He’s scored at least 61.75 DraftKings points in six of his past seven outings, and he’s increased his usage rate by more than 6% with James off the floor. Overall, he’s averaged 1.86 DraftKings points per minute in that split, which is a better mark than even Nikola Jokic has averaged this season (1.84).

However, there are a few things keeping Doncic from being a truly elite option. For starters, Doncic is currently dealing with an ankle injury. He should be in the lineup – he’s officially listed as probable – but he might be just a smidge less effective than usual. He’s also up to $12,500, which is easily his most expensive price tag since joining the Lakers.

That makes Doncic more of a tournament option than a cash game one, but his ceiling still makes him worth considering.

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Value

The Thunder stand out as the biggest source of value on Wednesday. They’ve already ruled out Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Lu Dort, while Isaiah Hartenstein and Cason Wallace are listed as questionable. It’s a great night for some of their reserve options to see extended run, and those players are capable of delivering massive value.

If Wallace is active, he fits the description at point guard. He’s been excellent recently, averaging 0.85 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he should be even better with the team missing their top scorers. He’s seen a +5.18% usage bump with SGA, Williams, and Dort off the floor this season, and he’s projected for 32 minutes in our NBA Models. Ultimately, he leads all backcourt options in projected Plus/Minus.

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Fast Break

Miles McBride has taken over as the Knicks’ starting point guard with Jalen Brunson sidelined, and the results have been mostly positive. He failed to return value in his last outing, but he was limited to less than 30 minutes in a blowout win. He had 32.25 and 41.25 in his previous two contests, so he’s still underpriced at $5,400. His matchup vs. the Spurs is also excellent, with the Spurs ranking dead last in defensive efficiency over their past 15 games.

On the other side of that matchup, Jared Butler stands out for the 76ers. Butler has averaged a stout 1.09 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s seen a big uptick in playing time recently. He’s coming off 37.1 minutes in his last contest, and he responded with 37.0 DraftKings points. He might not see quite as much playing time vs. the Knicks, but he’s still projected for 31 minutes in our NBA Models. That’s enough to potentially return value.

Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Mikal Bridges was one of the Knicks’ biggest acquisitions this offseason. He cost five first-round picks to acquire, which makes his production feel a bit disappointing. He’s averaged just 17.7 points per game this season despite averaging more minutes than any player in the NBA.

However, that’s primarily been due to how he’s been used. He’s often been relegated to a role player, with Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns doing most of the scoring.

With Brunson out of the equation recently, Bridges has been a much more productive offensive player. He’s scored at least 31.25 DraftKings points in three straight games, including 47.5 in an overtime win over the Blazers. Overall, he’s increased his production to 0.91 DraftKings points per minute in six full games without Brunson.

That makes Bridges underpriced at $6,300 in an outstanding matchup vs. the Spurs. They’ve been dismal defensively since losing Victor Wembanyama to injury, and the Knicks are implied for 119.75 points.

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Value

Jordan Goodwin is another solid value option to consider on this slate. The Lakers aren’t dealing with the same volume of absences as the Thunder, but Goodwin is still projected for 28 minutes in our NBA Models. That’s a solid chunk for someone priced at $4,700, especially when that player has averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute for the year. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.61, and Goodwin has personally averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.63 in that split (per the Trends tool).

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Fast Break

Isaiah Joe is currently projected for 26.5 minutes in our NBA Models, which is more than enough to put him on the radar at $4,300. He’s averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute with SGA, Williams, and Dort off the court this season. He’s also projected for less than 5% ownership, making him a contrarian way to attack the Thunder in tournaments. If Wallace is also ruled out, Joe would push into must-play territory.

Paying up for Anthony Edwards is another potentially interesting strategy for tournaments. He’s been excellent recently, averaging 1.35 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he draws a fantastic matchup Wednesday vs. the Pelicans. He has the top ceiling projection at the position, but he’s projected for just 12.7% ownership.

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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Aaron Wiggins isn’t priced like a stud for the Thunder, but he has the potential to deliver stud-like production vs. the 76ers. The last time the Thunder were this shorthanded, Wiggins dropped 30 points and 44.75 DraftKings points in a win over the Blazers.

Wiggins has developed into an excellent player in his fourth professional season, and he’s good enough to start on a lot of different teams. The fact that he struggles to find consistent playing time for the Thunder is a testament more to their depth than anything else. Wiggins ultimately leads the team with a 28.82% usage rate with Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, and Dort off the floor, and he’s averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute in that scenario. He owns the top projected Plus/Minus on the Thunder, making him the team’s top target.

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Value

While Wiggins is an elite option, he doesn’t own the top projected Plus/Minus at small forward. That honor falls to Jaylen Martin, who is priced at $3,400 for the Wizards. Washington is another team that figures to provide big value on Thursday. They’re expected to be without Jordan Poole, Bilal Coulibaly, Khris Middleton, and a host of additional players, leaving a small group to handle most of the playing time.

The big difference between Washington and OKC is that most of the Wizards’ remaining options aren’t good fantasy producers. Martin stands out as a potential exception. He hasn’t seen a ton of playing time this season, but he’s averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute when he’s been on the floor. He saw just under 28 minutes in his last outing, and he responded with 26.0 DraftKings points.

The Wizards also have more upside than usual vs. the Jazz, who have been one of the worst defenses in basketball this season. I’m not going out of my way to load up on the Wizards, but Martin stands out as an excellent option.

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Fast Break

Jaime Jaquez has struggled to duplicate his production from his rookie season, but he’s gotten more opportunities of late. Jaquez has still been productive when on the floor this season – he’s averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute – and he’s played at least 30.0 minutes in back-to-back games. If he can approach that level vs. the Pistons, he’s underpriced at $4,100.

With all of the “new” values popping up on Wednesday, some of the “old” value options could be overlooked. That includes Keldon Johnson. Johnson has posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games, yet his salary has stayed stagnant over that time frame. He’s averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s projected for 28 minutes vs. the Knicks. That’s a nice combination.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Chet Holmgren stands out as the lone true stud for the Thunder on Wednesday. The Thunder have been cautious with him since returning from injury, but he’s logged at least 33.7 minutes in back-to-back games.

If he plays that much vs. the 76ers, he has the potential to do serious damage. He’s averaged 1.31 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s barely played without SGA, Williams, and Dort. It stands to reason that he should be more productive in that split, and he’s already one of the best per-minute producers at the position.

Holmgren is also available at a slight discount. He’s priced at $7,600, resulting in an 82% Bargain Rating. Only Wiggins has a higher optimal lineup rate at power forward, and playing both together is definitely viable.

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Value

If you’re looking to go cheaper with the Thunder, Kenrich Williams stands out at just $3,200. He’s currently projected for 25 minutes in our NBA Models, and that should be more than enough for him to return value. Williams has historically had a comparable salary and minute projection in 24 career contests, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.58 in that split. He doesn’t bring a ton of upside to the table, but he’s a relatively safe punt play.

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Fast Break

The Suns have been a disaster this season, but it has nothing to do with their offense. They can score points in bunches, and they have the fourth-highest implied team total on Wednesday’s slate. Ryan Dunn has picked up a few additional minutes recently, and he’s taken full advantage. He’s averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s scored at least 27.5 DraftKings points in three straight games. He’s very much in play at just $3,600.

Sticking with the Suns, Kevin Durant is an interesting buy-low target. He’s down to $9,100 on DraftKings, and that’s warranted given his recent production. Still, he has the top ceiling projection at the position, and he’s capable of pouring in points like very few in the NBA. He has plenty of appeal against a Bulls squad that has played fast and struggled mightily on the defensive end.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Isaiah Hartenstein also vaults into stud territory for the Thunder on Wednesday. He’s been extremely productive this season, averaging 1.23 DraftKings points per minute, but his playing time has been capped by their roster depth. That shouldn’t be an issue vs. the 76ers.

Hartenstein is currently projected for 27 minutes, and he has the potential to be even more productive than usual. He’s seen a team-high +10.49% usage bump with SGA, Williams, and Dort off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.45 DraftKings points per minute.

Ultimately, you cannot have enough exposure to OKC on Wednesday. You should have multiple members from the squad in each lineup, and I’d feel comfortable with as many as four or five in a single build. 

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Value

With all due respect to Hartenstein, Jaylin Williams is the Thunder center I’m most interested in. Unlike some of his teammates, he barely plays on most nights. He’s logged 13.8 minutes or fewer in three straight games, so he’s basically irrelevant on nights where the team is at full strength.

However, his upside is immense when the team is shorthanded. He’s averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s projected for 27 minutes vs. the 76ers. The last time the team was shorthanded, Williams erupted for a triple-double and 54.25 DraftKings points. I wouldn’t expect a repeat – that game came with Holmgren and Hartenstein out of the lineup – but there should still be enough work for Williams to provide big value.

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Fast Break

Tristan Vukcevic is arguably the best pure value on the entire slate. He should see a bump in playing time for the shorthanded Wizards, and he has absolutely smashed when on the floor this season. He’s averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute, so he can do serious damage with a bit of additional burn. He’s projected for 25 minutes vs. the Jazz, and he’s scored at least 31.25 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. There’s no reason he should still be priced at $3,800, making him arguably the best value on the entire slate.

Finally, if you like the idea of rostering Nikola Jokic at reduced ownership, this could be your opportunity. He’s questionable vs. the Lakers, and he’s turned in back-to-back disappointing performances. That will take him off most people’s radars, but he remains the most dominant player in all of fantasy.