NBA DFS Picks Breakdown on DraftKings (Wednesday, January 1)

Happy New Year! Wednesday features a six-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Stud

The Bulls stand out as arguably the top team to target on Wednesday’s slate. They draw an elite matchup vs. the Wizards, and their 122.0 implied team total ranks second on the slate. They’re also going to be a bit shorthanded, particularly in the backcourt. Ayo Dosunmu has already been ruled out, while Zach LaVine is currently listed as questionable. That should open up a few additional minutes for the rest of the roster.

Josh Giddey is someone who has seen a significant bump in production recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five straight games, scoring at least 38.75 DraftKings points in each. He’s increased his output to a massive 1.46 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which trails only Cade Cunningham among Wednesday’s point guards.

Giddey has been priced up to $7,700, but that still feels too cheap all things considered.

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Value

Sticking with the Bulls, Lonzo Ball stands out as one of the strongest values of the day at just $3,800. Ball has played sparingly this season, which is not surprising after missing roughly 2.5 years while recovering from injury. However, he did see a slight uptick in his last game, finishing with 25.9 minutes vs. the Hornets.

Ball is projected for 21 minutes on Wednesday’s slate, and if he’s going to play that much moving forward, he’s way too cheap at $3,800. He’s still been a solid producer when on the floor, averaging 1.00 DraftKings points per minute for the year. His price tag also comes with an 86% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, which is one of the better marks at the position.

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Fast Break

Is it about to be D’Angelo Russell season? He was recently traded from the Lakers back to the Nets, where he was an All-Star in 2018-19. While it’s a clear step down in terms of team quality, Russell should get significantly more opportunities to play and rack up points than he did in Los Angeles. The big question is how much he will play in his first game with his new team. He’s priced at just $5,100 and could easily eclipse a fantasy point per minute moving forward, so he doesn’t need a ton of court time to potentially return value.

Let’s finish up the Bulls’ backcourt with Coby White. He’s eligible at both guard spots, and he’s coming off 51.5 DraftKings points in 40.9 minutes in his last outing. White has seen a team-high +3.36% usage bump with LaVine off the floor this season, so he figures to be the biggest beneficiary if he’s forced to miss his second straight game.

Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Tyler Herro continues to get more and more expensive, checking in at $8,500 for Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Pelicans. However, it doesn’t get much better from a matchup standpoint. The Pelicans are 29th in defensive efficiency, and while Miami’s 114.5 implied team total doesn’t jump off the page, it represents a moderate increase compared to their season average (111.0).

The big news for the Heat is that Jimmy Butler is expected to return to the lineup vs. New Orleans. That said, it remains to be seen if he’s all there mentally. He has reportedly requested a trade, so his focus could be elsewhere.

The return of Butler is definitely a downgrade for Herro, but he still grades out well in our models vs. the Pelicans. He leads all shooting guards in both median and ceiling projection, and the return of Butler could result in reduced ownership.

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Value

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is not a particularly exciting DFS option, but he stands out as a solid source of value at $4,500. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past six games, and he continues to see plenty of minutes for the shorthanded Magic. He’s currently projected for 32 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.58 (per the Trends tool).

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Fast Break

Jalen Suggs has become Orlando’s primary scoring threat with Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner out of the lineup with injuries. He’s seen a team-high +4.92% bump to his usage rate with both players off the floor, giving him a 32.45% usage rate in that split. Suggs was limited to just 13.2 minutes in his last contest with a wrist injury, but he is probable to suit up Wednesday vs. the Pistons. Suggs has at least 26 points in his past two full contests, giving him a decent ceiling for his price tag.

Dillon Brooks has been a strong source of value for the Rockets recently. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.13 over his past 10 games, and he’s had at least 31.0 DraftKings points in three straight. He’s up to 0.86 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s played at least 37 minutes in four of his past six games. His price tag is up to $5,200, but that still feels too cheap.

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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

It has been an absolutely disastrous season for the Pelicans. There was some optimism heading into the year after acquiring Dejounte Murray in the offseason, but they have been decimated by injuries for most of the year. Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram are both currently out of the lineup, leaving the team without their top two scorers.

Trey Murphy has tried to pick up the slack in their absence. He’s done an admirable job as well, scoring at least 40.0 DraftKings points in four of his past five games. Murphy has increased his production to 1.04 DraftKings points per minute with Williamson and Ingram off the floor this season, and he’s projected for 36 minutes in our NBA Models. The matchup vs. the Heat isn’t ideal, but $7,200 is simply too cheap for the role he’s played for the Pelicans recently.

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Value

The Knicks are another team with an excellent matchup on Wednesday. They’re taking on the Jazz, who have been the worst team in basketball in terms of defensive efficiency. There is some blowout potential in this spot – the Knicks are listed as 13-point home favorites – but their 120.5 implied team total ranks third on the slate.

OG Anunoby continues to play as much as possible for New York. Tom Thibodeau is not afraid to lean heavily on certain players, and Anunoby is 10th in the league at 36.3 minutes per game. That’s not nearly as much as Mikal Bridges – who leads the league at a whopping 39.1 – but it’s still an elite figure.

Anunoby has also averaged 0.86 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he’s capable of popping off for the occasional ceiling game. He had 48.75 DraftKings points two weeks ago vs. the Raptors, so he provides a solid combination of safety and upside.

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Fast Break

Speaking of Bridges, he’s also in play for the Knicks. No one is projected for more than his 38 minutes on Wednesday, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of his past four games. That includes a massive 59.25 DraftKings points on Christmas, so he’s another player with an elite ceiling for his price tag.

Herb Jones is another potential option for the Pelicans. He’s not quite the same scoring threat as Ingram, but he’s a solid contributor across the board. He’s increased his production to 0.89 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s coming off 35.0 DraftKings points in his last outing.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Power forward stands out as one of the weaker positions on this slate, particularly at the top. There are only a few options priced above $7,000 on DraftKings, and most of them stand out as poor values in our projections.

However, Cameron Johnson might be an exception. Johnson will likely lose some value moving forward with the addition of Russell, but Russell might not handle a full workload in his first game with Brooklyn. Cam Thomas also remains out of the lineup, so Johnson could see at least one more game as the team’s top scoring threat.

Johnson has increased his production to 1.11 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s averaged 1.15 DraftKings points per minute with Thomas and Dennis Schroder off the floor. That makes him a decent option in a potential smash spot vs. the Raptors.

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Value

Alex Sarr hasn’t provided much ceiling recently, but he has been a pretty consistent source of value. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in eight of his past nine outings, with his most recent game being the lone exception. He’s played at least 31.8 minutes in three of his past five games, and getting minutes for guys like him and Bilal Coulibaly should be the Wizards’ primary focus in a clear rebuilding year. Sarr has averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he’s a good bet to return value at $5,800 if he can get back to 30 minutes vs. the Bulls.

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Fast Break

Ausar Thompson has not had the same opportunities to make an impact as his brother, but he’s been a solid DFS producer when he has seen the floor. He’s averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s coming off 24 minutes in his last outing. If his playing time continues to trend upward, he has the potential to be an elite value at $3,700.

Nikola Jovic’s playing time has been all over the place recently, and the return of Butler certainly isn’t going to help with that. However, when he hits the high end of his minute range, he has a strong ceiling for his price tag. He’s coming off 37.25 DraftKings points in his last outing, and he’s projected for approximately 10% ownership on Wednesday.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Bam Adebayo has had a very quiet year by his standards. He’s averaging just 16.1 points, 9.9 rebounds, and 4.7 assists per game, and all but his assists are down from last season. His scoring numbers have taken a significant plunge, and he’s averaging fewer points per game than he has since his first year as a full-time starter.

Still, Adebayo has plenty of upside in this matchup vs. the Pelicans. In addition to struggling on defense, the Pelicans have also been poor at defending the paint and on the glass. They have minimal presence on the interior without Williamson, so Adebayo has significantly more upside than usual. His per-minute production has also ticked up over the past month, so this could be a breakout spot.

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Value

Continue to fire up Goga Bitadze with confidence for the shorthanded Magic. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in eight of his past nine outings, and the lone exception was a game where he played just 21.1 minutes. He’s played closer to 32 minutes per game in most outings recently, and he’s increased his production to 1.22 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.

The matchup vs. the Pistons is also solid, giving Bitadze a +1.95 Opponent Plus/Minus. He’s not a true “value play” at $6,900, but he’s still the clear leader at center in projected Plus/Minus.

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Fast Break

If you’re looking for a punt play, you could do worse than Precious Achiuwa. He has an elite +8.04 Opponent Plus/Minus vs. the Jazz, and he’s projected for a reasonable 19 minutes in our NBA Models. That figure could also increase if the game turns into a blowout. Achiuwa’s $3,700 price tag comes with an 89% Bargain Rating, so he’s one of the best pure values on DraftKings as well.

Nic Claxton’s playing time has been sporadic of late, but he’s logged at least 31 minutes in three straight games. That’s a solid number for a player who has averaged 1.03 DraftKings points per minute for the year. He also draws a fantastic matchup vs. the Raptors, giving him an Opponent Plus/Minus of +7.36.