NBA DFS Picks Breakdown on DraftKings (Wednesday, December 11)

Wednesday features a two-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Stud

Jalen Brunson emerged as one of the best players in basketball last season. He carried the Knicks’ offense for large stretches, especially after Julius Randle went down with an injury. His average of 28.7 points per game was the fourth-highest mark in basketball, and he added 6.7 assists and 3.6 rebounds per game for good measure.

Brunson hasn’t been quite as good this season, which is not a huge shock. The team added Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges this offseason, so they simply haven’t needed as much from Brunson. Still, he’s been quite good for fantasy purposes. He’s averaged 1.24 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s increased that figure to 1.30 over the past month.

The Knicks will take the floor in a solid spot on Wednesday. They’re taking on the Hawks, who have played at the third-fastest pace this season. The Knicks can do some serious damage offensively, but they also play at one of the slower paces in the league. That makes this a massive pace-up spot, and their 122.0 implied team total represents a solid increase from their season average (117.8).

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Value

The Knicks play their starters more than any team in basketball, so there isn’t a ton of merit in targeting their bench players. That said, Miles McBride is the clear exception. He’s been their sixth man this season, and he typically sees a solid handful of minutes on most nights. He’s currently projected for 26 minutes in our NBA Models, and that number could increase if Josh Hart is unable to go; he’s currently listed as questionable.

McBride has also been productive when on the floor recently, averaging 0.86 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. At just $4,100, McBride doesn’t need a ton of minutes to potentially return value.

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Fast Break

The Rockets have been the biggest surprise of the early season, and Fred VanVleet is a big reason why. From a DFS perspective, VanVleet remains a high-variance option. He has a high ceiling and a low floor, but when he hits his ceiling, he typically provides massive value. He’s priced at just $7,300 on DraftKings, but he’s gone for at least 47.0 DraftKings points in two of his past five games. No one at the position is projected for more minutes on Wednesday, making him a very intriguing pivot off Brunson.

Steph Curry is also available on this slate, and he’s projected for less than 15% ownership. He’ll have to navigate a very tough matchup – the Rockets are No. 2 in defensive efficiency this season – but he’s capable of going off against anyone. He hasn’t been a particularly strong producer of late, but he’s due for some positive shooting regression: he’s shot just 38.4% over his past six outings.

Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Bridges got off to a bit of a slow start with the Knicks, but he’s been fantastic of late. He’s scored at least 33.0 DraftKings points in five straight games, and he’s carrying one of the largest workloads in the league. He’s projected for 39 minutes vs. the Hawks as Tom Thibodeau continues to run his starters into the ground.

That’s a ton of playing time for someone that costs just $6,000. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.27 (per the Trends tool). Bridges has also increased his production to 0.84 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he could play even more than usual if Hart is out of the lineup.

Ultimately, Bridges is simply too cheap on DraftKings, where his 80% Bargain Rating is tied for the top mark at the position.

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Value

Bogdan Bogdanovic is officially questionable vs. the Knicks, along with a handful of other players. That’s going to make Atlanta’s injury report very important to monitor heading into lineup lock.

However, Bogdanovic looks like a solid value if he’s able to suit up. He’s still priced below $5,000, but he’s scored 29.5 and 35.0 DraftKings points in his past two outings. He’s averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and is playing around 30 minutes per night, so as long as he’s active, he’s in play at his current salary.

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Fast Break

Cam Payne is projected for just 14 minutes for the Knicks, but he typically makes the most of his minutes. He’s averaging better than a fantasy point per minute for the year, and he went off for 27.75 DraftKings points in 16.5 minutes vs. the Pelicans three games ago. He has some appeal as a punt play at $3,300.

Buddy Hield moved into the Warriors’ starting lineup in place of Andrew Wiggins in their last outing. He responded with 44.0 DraftKings points in 34.6 minutes, so he would become one of the top options at the position if he draws another start. Wiggins is questionable vs. the Rockets, so it’s another injury worth keeping an eye on.

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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

OG Anunoby checks a lot of the same boxes as Bridges. He’s also carrying an insane workload for the Knicks, ranking sixth in the league with an average of 36.7 minutes per game. That’s not quite as much as Bridges – who leads the league at 38.3 – but it’s pretty darn close.

Anunoby is also slightly better on a per-minute basis. He’s averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he’s increased that figure to 0.96 over the past month.

Like Bridges, he also stands out as criminally underpriced. His $6,200 salary comes with an  87% Bargain Rating, and he’s had at least 36.5 DraftKings points in two of his past three outings.

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Value

Dillon Brooks stands out as one of the better value options on Wednesday’s slate. Brooks had a quiet start to the year, but he has turned things around recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past eight games, and he’s gone for at least 39.0 DraftKings points in two of them. That gives him plenty of upside at just $4,400.

Brooks also provides a solid floor at his price tag. He’s projected for 33 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.13. It’s tough to beat that combination.

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Fast Break

If Hart is able to suit up, he’s another wing option for the Knicks that can be considered. He’s not a big scoring threat, but he makes up for it with his rebounding prowess. He’s averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s fourth in the league at 37.0 minutes per game.

Gary Payton II also started for the Warriors in their last contest, and he finished with 24.75 DraftKings points in 27.3 minutes. He would be a prime target at $3,300 if he draws another start, but it’s possible he will move back to the bench in favor of Wiggins or Brandon Podziemski. There are a lot of moving pieces to consider for the Warriors.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Jonathan Kuminga has struggled to find a consistent role for the Warriors over the past few seasons, leading to some strife between him and head coach Steve Kerr. However, Kuminga moved into the starting lineup recently, and that’s done wonders for his fantasy stock. He’s always been a capable per-minute producer, so all he needs is more playing time to solidify his status as a fantasy stud.

Kuminga has logged at least 28.6 minutes in four straight games, and he’s coming off 36.2 minutes in his last outing. He’s averaged 1.10 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he’s a massive value at $5,400 if he’s going to continue to play that much. We have him projected for a conservative 30 minutes on this slate, but that’s still enough to make him one of the top overall options for the day.

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Value

Tari Eason has become one of my personal favorites in NBA DFS. He’s extremely active when on the floor, averaging 1.20 DraftKings points per minute, but his role fluctuates from night to night. He’ll occasionally play less than 20 minutes, but he also has the upside to get to 30. Ime Udoka doesn’t appear to have a go-to closing rotation, opting instead to play the five guys who are playing best that evening.

That gives Eason an extremely undervalued ceiling on nights when he’s playing well. He had 40.0 DraftKings points in his last outing, and those types of performances are frequent for him. There’s definitely some bust potential at $5,200, but he also has the potential to be the highest scorer at the position.

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Fast Break

Jabari Smith is the other PF option in Houston. He’s not quite as good as Eason on a per-minute basis – he’s averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute for the year – but his playing time is a bit more secure. He’s logged at least 34 minutes in six of his past seven games, and he’s had at least 36.3 minutes in five of them.

Jalen Johnson is questionable for the Hawks, and his absence would have a big impact on this slate. However, he would also be worth targeting if he’s able to suit up. Questionable players typically garner less ownership than usual, and Johnson has one of the higher ceilings on the slate. He has the sixth-highest ceiling projection on Wednesday, and he’s No. 1 outside of the PG and C positions.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Karl-Anthony Towns has had a massive resurgence this season. He was wasted at times in Minnesota, but the Knicks are utilizing him to his true potential. That’s been a fantastic development for fantasy players. He’s averaged 1.62 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s averaged a +8.18 Plus/Minus over his past 10 outings.

Towns has been priced up to $9,700, but that still stands out as too cheap. Towns has averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.84 with a comparable salary as a member of the Knicks, and he’s projected for a similar mark vs. the Hawks.

Atlanta also represents an elite matchup, giving Towns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.22. That’s the top mark at the position, and he also leads all centers with 10 Pro Trends. Overall, he stands out as the clear top stud on the slate.

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Value

Kevon Looney is another potential value option for the Warriors. He actually moved to the bench in the team’s last outing, but his playing time wasn’t ultimately impacted. He logged 21.3 minutes in that contest, which was only slightly lower than what he played as a starter in the three prior outings.

Looney has been putting in work on a per-minute basis this season, averaging 1.20 DraftKings points per minute, so 21 minutes is more than enough for him to potentially return value. His $4,000 salary on DraftKings comes with a 74% Bargain Rating, so he’s a bit underpriced.

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Fast Break

Alperen Sengun is questionable for the Rockets, which is yet another injury that will need to be monitored. If he’s active, he can definitely be used as a pivot off Towns in tournaments. He should garner significantly less ownership and has a wide range of outcomes, but he has the potential for huge numbers when he hits his ceiling.

Both of the Hawks’ centers have provided value at times this season, but it appears the pendulum is swinging in favor of Onyeka Okongwu at the moment. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past seven games, and he saw more minutes than Clint Capela in their last outing.