NBA DFS Picks Breakdown on DraftKings (Tuesday, October 22)

The NBA is officially back! After an eventful offseason, the regular season kicks off with a two-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET. The Celtics will host the Knicks in the first game of the evening, followed by the Timberwolves at the Lakers.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Stud

Jalen Brunson emerged as one of the best players in basketball last season. He doesn’t look the part – he’s just 6’2” and 190 pounds – but he averaged a career-best 28.7 points per game. For fantasy purposes, he averaged an excellent 1.29 DraftKings points per minute and 35.4 minutes per game. Head coach Tom Thibodeaux is not shy about playing his key players huge minutes, and Brunson was 10th in the league in minutes last season.

However, there are a few questions with Brunson heading into 2024-25. The team made some additions in the offseason, adding Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns. Both players are going to need the ball a bit more than the players they’re replacing, so Brunson’s usage could come down a tick this season.

Additionally, the Knicks face a brutal matchup to start the year. They’re taking on the Celtics, who were second in the league in defensive efficiency last season. The Knicks are implied for just 109.25 points in this matchup, which is the lowest mark on the two-game slate.

Still, Brunson is the clear top option if paying up at the position. He leads all players in median and ceiling projection by a wide margin.

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Value

Paying up is not the only option in the Knicks’ backcourt. They also have one of the better values at the position in Miles McBride. He was a significant contributor to the team’s playoff run last season, and his role is expected to be even larger this season. He should be one of the first guys off the bench vs. the Celtics, and he’s projected for 25 minutes in our NBA Models.

That makes him too cheap at just $3,600. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.36 (per the Trends tool). McBride also averaged a respectable 0.75 DraftKings points per minute last season, so he’s a bit better than the typical player in this price range.

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Fast Break

Derrick White is a key role player for the Celtics, providing outstanding perimeter defense and 3-point shooting. He averaged 2.2 blocks + steals per game last season to go along with 2.7 3-pointers per game. He may not have a huge scoring role, but there’s plenty to go around in the Celtics’ offense. They were first in the league in offensive efficiency last season, and their 114.75-point implied team total leads Tuesday’s slate.

D’Angelo Russell averaged the second-most fantasy points per minute among Tuesday’s PG options last season (1.04). His playing time was a bit inconsistent, but he’s projected for 32 minutes vs. the Timberwolves on opening night. Russell has historically averaged 34.54 DraftKings points in games with between 30 and 34 minutes, so that should be enough to pay off his $6,200 salary.

Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Anthony Edwards was one of the NBA’s biggest breakout stars last year. He led his team to one of the best records in basketball, made it to the Western Conference Finals, and won a gold medal with Team USA. Statistically, he also had the best year of his career, averaging 25.9 points, 5.1 assists, and 5.4 rebounds per game, good for an average of 1.24 DraftKings points per minute.

The Timberwolves will make a big change in their rotation for the upcoming season, replacing Towns with Julius Randle. Towns had a 27.4% usage rate last season, while Randle was at 29.9% with the Knicks. He’s also a much different player than Towns, who was capable of providing floor spacing at power forward. Randle is more of a bull in a china shop, and he needs the ball in his hands to be most effective.

How will it impact Edwards? I would expect a bit less production from a fantasy perspective this season. That might make him a bit overpriced at $8,800, but that’s not a huge concern on a two-game slate. He still leads the position in median and ceiling projection by a pretty sizable margin, and he’s not projected for a ton of ownership on this slate.

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Value

Payton Pritchard has steadily improved his game since arriving in Boston four years ago. He averaged 9.6 points per game in 22.3 minutes last season, and his 0.88 DraftKings points per minute is an excellent mark for a player in this price range. He should see roughly the same number of minutes this season, which gives him a chance to pay off his price tag.

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Fast Break

Austin Reaves has become a very important player for the Lakers, capable of doing a little bit of everything. He averaged 15.9 points, 5.5 assists, and 4.3 rebounds per game last season, so he’s a very well-rounded fantasy producer. The result is an average of 0.99 DraftKings points per minute, which trails only Edwards, Jaylen Brown, and White among SG-eligible players on this slate.

Donte DiVincenzo was also traded from the Knicks to the Timberwolves this offseason, and he emerged as one of the best 3-point shooters in basketball last season. He’s probably not going to play as many minutes for the Timberwolves as he did with the Knicks – he’s currently projected for just 24 minutes vs. the Lakers – but he’s capable of putting up fantasy points quickly if his jump shot is falling.

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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Jayson Tatum has solidified his status as one of the best players in basketball. He’s finished in the top six in MVP voting in each of the past three years, and he finally got the Celtics over the hump last season. They won the 18th championship in franchise history, and they’ll get to hang that banner in the rafters Tuesday vs. the Knicks.

The Knicks are not the ideal matchup to start your season with, but it’s not as tough as in years past. New York wasn’t quite as defensive-focused last year, ranking ninth in the league in defensive efficiency. They still played at the slowest pace in basketball, but Tatum averaged 47.95 DraftKings points in five matchups vs. the Knicks last season. He had at least 56 DraftKings points in two of them, so he’s capable of succeeding in this spot.

Tatum stands out as one of the strongest options regardless of position on this slate. He leads all players in terms of median and ceiling projection, and he’s third on DraftKings in projected Plus/Minus.

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Value

While Tatum is the top stud at SF, Josh Hart might be the best pure value. He has the top Plus/Minus projection, and he’s expected to be the highest-owned player on the entire slate.

Hart has always been an elite per-minute producer, but he struggled to find consistent minutes before last season. He was an iron man for the Knicks last season, playing in 81 games and averaging 33.4 minutes in those contests. He’s one of the top rebounding wings in basketball, and his contributions in that category propelled him to 0.87 DraftKings points per minute last season.

With Randle and DiVincenzo now gone, the coast is clear for Hart to start and play plenty of minutes vs. the Celtics. He’s projected for 36 minutes in our NBA Models, and Hart has averaged 36.21 DraftKings points and a +6.72 Plus/Minus with a comparable minute projection as a member of the Knicks.

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Fast Break

OG Anunoby was acquired by the Knicks before the trade deadline last season, and he propelled the team to new heights. They were 20-3 in games with Anunoby in the lineup, but he unfortunately got injured in the playoffs. He’s a better real-life player than in fantasy – his best attribute is his on-ball defense – but he’s expected to play around 35 minutes at a reasonable price tag.

If you’re looking for a low-owned stud on this slate, Jaylen Brown could be your guy. He’s not projected very well in our Models, but his projected ownership checks in below 13%. His optimal lineup rate is closer to 18.5% in Sim Labs, so he’s being undervalued.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

As much as some things change, some things stay the same. LeBron James is going on Year 22, and while he’s not quite as good as he was in his prime, he’s still one of the best players in basketball. He was third-team All-NBA last season while averaging 25.7 points, 8.3 assists, and 7.3 rebounds per game. For fantasy purposes, his average of 1.44 DraftKings points per minute was the second-highest mark among all of Tuesday’s players.

Unfortunately, LeBron will have to deal with one of the toughest matchups in basketball to start his season. The Timberwolves were the top team in the league in terms of defensive efficiency last season, and they played at the eighth-slowest pace. That’s a brutal combination for fantasy purposes.

There isn’t much of a difference between Tatum and LeBron from a price standpoint – they’re separated by just $100 – but Tatum is coming up far more frequently in the optimal lineup simulations. That makes him the superior pay-up option at forward.

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Value

The only thing stopping Naz Reid from being a bigger star is a lack of playing time. He averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute last season and took home the Sixth Man of the Year award. He’s capable of doing a little bit of everything, including knocking down 3-pointers.

Reid still figures to come off the bench this season, but maybe he’ll play a bit more with Randle replacing Towns. Regardless, Reid doesn’t need a ton of minutes to potentially pay off his $4,900 salary.

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Fast Break

Rui Hachimura is another potential source of value at the position. He’s projected for 29 minutes in our NBA Models, and he averaged a respectable 0.83 DraftKings points per minute last season. Hachimura has historically averaged just under 25 DraftKings points per game with a comparable minute projection.

If you’re looking for a sneaky tournament option, Sam Hauser is someone to consider. He’s showing up in nearly 12% of the optimal lineup sims in Sim Labs, but he’s projected for less than six percent ownership. Houser is currently projected for 20 minutes off the bench for the Celtics, and he’s a career 42.2% shooter from 3-point range. He has some upside if he can get hot.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Center is one of the most loaded positions on Tuesday’s slate, and utilizing a center in the utility spot is definitely advisable. Unfortunately, Anthony Davis, Rudy Gobert, and Towns are only eligible at the center spot, so you can only play a maximum of two of them.

Towns stands out as the best value of the bunch. He’s very affordable at just $7,800, and moving from Minnesota to New York should do wonders for his fantasy value. It wasn’t all that long ago that Towns was one of the best fantasy centers in basketball, but being forced to share the court with Gobert nuked his numbers. Towns went from a guy who was basically a double-double lock – he averaged close to 12.5 rebounds per game in his prime – to someone who averaged closer to eight rebounds per game over the past two years.

Towns is going to play exclusively at center with the Knicks, so expect his rebounding numbers to return to prominence. That should result in a few additional fantasy points per game, and he owns the best projected Plus/Minus regardless of position on Tuesday.

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Value

Gobert isn’t a “value” play in the truest sense of the word, but he’s still one of the best pure values at the position. He’s priced at just $6,700, which is simply too cheap for a player of his caliber. He’s averaged 35.09 DraftKings points with a comparable price tag for his career, good for an average Plus/Minus of +2.76.

Gobert may not see the same statistical bump as Towns this season – he’s still going to have to share the court with either Randle or Reid – but he still stands out as an excellent option in our NBA Models.

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Fast Break

Davis is the odd man out at center, despite having arguably the highest ceiling on the entire slate. His average of 1.48 DraftKings points per minute last season was the best mark among all of Tuesday’s options, and no one at center is projected for more than his 35 minutes. Unfortunately, he’s going to have to deal with Gobert’s defense on the interior, which is never fun. He’s showing up in the optimal lineup in just under 25% of simulations, which makes him the clear No. 3 out of that trio.

Finally, Randle is an interesting tournament option. He’s projected for less than five percent ownership, but he is capable of stuffing the stat sheet when healthy. Before getting injured last season, he averaged 24.0 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 5.0 assists per game. It remains to be seen how he’ll fit with his new team, but he undoubtedly has upside.