NBA DFS Picks Breakdown on DraftKings (Tuesday, November 12)

Tuesday features an eight-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Stud

Steph Curry continues to do Steph Curry things. After leading the USA to a gold medal at the Olympics, he’s picked up right where he left off with the Warriors. Not only have they defied expectations this season – they’re off to an 8-2 start – but Curry has averaged 1.55 DraftKings points per minute.

Curry hasn’t seen a ton of minutes to start the year, but he’s trending in the right direction. He’s played at least 34.4 minutes in two of his past three games, and he’s unsurprisingly scored at least 58.75 DraftKings points in both.

If Curry is going to continue to play that much, his $8,300 salary is way too cheap. He’s currently projected for 34 minutes in our NBA Models, and Curry has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.95 with a comparable salary and minute projection (per the Trends tool).

Add in the fact that Andrew Wiggins is questionable, and Curry stands out as a really strong option on this slate.

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Value

The NBA season may be less than a month old, but we’ve already got some serious injury absences to deal with. That includes Trae Young for the Hawks. He’s currently dealing with right Achilles tendonitis and has already been ruled out for Tuesday’s matchup vs. the Celtics.

That makes Keaton Wallace a very interesting punt play. He’s priced at just $3,200 on DraftKings, but he has a chance to replace Young in the starting lineup. He’s currently projected for 26 minutes, and he’s averaged a respectable 0.80 DraftKings points per minute for the year. Historically, players with comparable minute projections and salaries have been some of the best values in fantasy, averaging a Plus/Minus of +3.49.

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Fast Break

Damian Lillard is another marquee player who will sit out on Tuesday, making A.J. Green another solid value option. He’s a bit more expensive than Wallace at $4,200, but he’s projected for 30 minutes and has averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute with Lillard off the floor. He also draws an elite matchup vs. the Raptors, and the Bucks’ implied team total of 116.25 is the third-highest mark on the slate.

With Kevin Durant still sidelined for the Suns, Tyus Jones’ minutes feel a bit more secure. He’s coming off more than 40 minutes in his last outing, and he responded with 37.5 DraftKings points. He has one of the better individual matchups on the slate, leading all point guards with a +5.69 Opponent Plus/Minus.

Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Devin Booker is going to have to carry the load for the Suns for as long as Durant is sidelined. He hasn’t seen a huge boost to his usage rate with Durant off the floor this season, but he’s taken on a much larger role as a distributor. He’s increased his assist rate by nearly 10%, giving him significantly more fantasy upside. He’s handed out double-digit assists in back-to-back contests, and he’s coming off 48.25 DraftKings points in his first full game without his superstar teammate.

Booker has the potential for an even better performance on Tuesday. He shot just 9-22 from the field and 3-10 from 3-point range in his last outing, both of which are subpar marks for an elite scorer like Booker. The Jazz have been the worst team in the league in terms of defensive efficiency this season, so Booker should be significantly more efficient as a scorer on this slate. Ultimately, he stands out as one of the strongest pay-up options regardless of position.

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Value

Garrison Mathews has the potential to be one of the biggest winners in Young’s absence. He’s currently projected 30 minutes in our NBA Models, and Mathews has seen a nice boost in value with Young off the floor this season. He’s increased his usage rate by +3.28%, resulting in an average of 0.91 DraftKings points per minute.

Mathews has approached 30 minutes in just one previous contest this season, and he responded with 36.75 DraftKings points. At just $3,700, he leads all players in projected Plus/Minus regardless of position, and he does it by a pretty comfortable margin.

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Fast Break

Grayson Allen picked up a few extra minutes in his first game without Durant, and he’s a strong buy-low target at just $3,700. He didn’t return value in his last outing, but he was just 3-13 from the field and 3-11 from 3-point range. Allen is one of the best shooters in the league from downtown – he led the league by knocking down 46.1% of his triples last season – so he’s due for a bit of positive regression.

Tyler Herro’s price tag continues to rise, but he’s arguably still underpriced at $7,400. The Heat are currently without Jimmy Butler, and Herro has averaged 1.33 DraftKings points per minute with Butler off the floor this season. He’s scored at least 41.5 DraftKings points in three of his past four games, including 52.25 DraftKings points vs. the Nuggets two games ago.

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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Brandon Miller continues to look like an underpriced fantasy asset for the Hornets. He started the year playing limited minutes, but the team has really ramped up his involvement of late. He’s played 33.4 and 40.6 minutes in his past two games, and he’s unsurprisingly posted a positive Plus/Minus in each.

Miller is currently projected for 35 minutes vs. the Magic, and if he gets to that threshold, he should be able to pay off his $6,600 salary. His 81% Bargain Rating is tied for the second-best mark among SFs on DraftKings.

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Value

Andre Jackson is another potential source of value for the shorthanded Bucks. He hasn’t been particularly impressive this season, averaging just 0.67 DraftKings points per minute, but he’s projected for 28 minutes at just $3,700. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.32. Jackson has also seen a +2.95% usage bump with Lillard off the court this season, and he’s increased his fantasy output to 0.83 DraftKings points per minute in that split.

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Fast Break

Klay Thompson revenge game? He’ll take on the Warriors on Tuesday after helping lead the team to four NBA championships. Thompson hasn’t had the best start to his Mavericks’ tenure, shooting just 41.8% from the field and 35.4% from 3-point range, but he’s still seeing plenty of minutes. He’s a positive regression candidate, and he could be particularly motivated given the matchup on Tuesday.

Franz Wagner has scored at least 41.0 DraftKings points in three straight games, and that doesn’t even tell the full story. He’s seen limited minutes in his past two contests – both blowout wins – so his production has been even stronger than it’s looked on paper. He’s averaged 1.29 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he could be slightly under-owned on this slate.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

The Bucks are off to a disastrous start this season, but it hasn’t been due to Giannis Antetokounmpo. He continues to pile up stats better than just about anyone in basketball. He’s averaged 31.6 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 5.2 assists through his first nine games, good for an average of 1.69 DraftKings points per minute.

Without Lillard, Giannis is going to have to do even more to try to keep the Bucks competitive. He’s increased his production to 1.84 DraftKings points per minute with Lillard off the floor, thanks in part to a nearly +13% boost to his assist rate.

Giannis is already among the best scorers and rebounders in fantasy, so a few extra assists gives him an even higher ceiling than usual. A triple-double is certainly in play, especially in a juicy matchup vs. the Raptors. They’re dead last in defensive rating, and they’ve played at the 10th-fastest pace this season.

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Value

Grant Williams has been a steady source of fantasy production recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past seven games. That includes each of his past three, including 34.5 DraftKings points in 38.2 minutes in his most recent outing.

The Hornets are pretty thin in the frontcourt at the moment, with Nick Richards, Mark Williams, and Miles Bridges all out of the lineup. As a result, the former Celtic should be looking at another sizable workload. He’s projected for 31 minutes and has averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute, making him too cheap at $4,900.

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Fast Break

Jalen Johnson may not have the same ceiling as Giannis, but he’s arguably the better pure value at $8,600. He has a well-rounded fantasy skill set, and with Young out of the lineup, he’s going to have to do everything for the Hawks to stay competitive. Johnson has increased his usage rate by more than 10% with Young off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.45 DraftKings points per minute.

Taurean Prince is coming off 38 minutes in his last outing, and he should see another expanded workload for the shorthanded Bucks. He’s projected for 32 minutes at just $4,100, which is a tough combination to pass up for cash games.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Bam Adebayo hasn’t looked quite like himself to start the year. He’s averaging just 0.99 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s averaged just 14.8 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 4.0 assists per game. Still, Adebayo is a proven commodity, so it’s only a matter of time before he turns things around.

Adebayo is going to have to be more aggressive offensively without Butler in the lineup, and he’s increased his usage rate by +3.02% with Butler off the floor this season. Adebayo averaged 1.31 DraftKings points per minute with Butler off the court last year, and he averaged 46.99 DraftKings points in 21 games without his star teammate. That makes him a clear buy-low target at just $8,000. 

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Value

Goga Bitadze has always been a capable producer when given the opportunity to play, and he’s getting that chance at the moment. With Wendell Carter Jr. out of the lineup, Bitadze has logged at least 21.7 minutes in four straight games. He’s scored at least 31.75 DraftKings points in each contest, and he’s averaged a stout 1.21 DraftKings points per minute overall.

Bitadze is projected for 26 minutes on Tuesday, and he’s historically averaged a +3.10 Plus/Minus with a comparable minute projection.

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Fast Break

Jusuf Nurkic is another excellent per-minute producer, averaging 1.13 DraftKings points per minute for the year. He had an awful showing in his last outing, finishing with just 10.25 DraftKings points in 15.2 minutes, but he had scored at least 33.5 DraftKings points in his previous three games. He has some buy-low appeal at just $5,800.

Dereck Lively II is questionable for the Mavericks, and if he remains out of the lineup, Daniel Gafford would have some added appeal at center. He’s coming off a season-high 33.8 minutes in his last outing, and he responded with 36.75 DraftKings points.