Tuesday night brings another great doubleheader of fantasy basketball with a pair of critical games on the schedule. The Knicks took the first two games of their series with the Pacers, but lost the two games in Indiana. The series returns to Madison Square Garden knotted 2-2. While the home team is 4-0 in that series, the home team is 0-4 in the Western Conference Semifinals between the Nuggets and Timberwolves. The Nuggets host Game 5 of that 2-2 series in the second game on Tuesday’s slate.
On the injury front, Jamal Murray (calf) and Tyrese Haliburton (back) are questionable but have been playing through their injuries so far in their series. The Knicks will be without OG Anunoby (hamstring) for a third straight game. As news breaks during the day, be sure to refresh the player models for the latest updates.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Jalen Brunson continues to carry a huge workload for the Knicks and makes a strong play to build around on Tuesday. He has the second-highest ceiling, median, and floor projections on the entire slate and the second-highest Pts/Sal and Projected Plus/Minus of any player on the slate. He’s the highest in each of those categories across the board at point guard.
Brunson had two down games in Indiana but had scored at least 29 points in each of his previous six games. He has averaged an impressive 1.25 DraftKings points per minute in the postseason while playing 41.7 minutes per game with a sky-high 37.2% usage rate. He always gets plenty of minutes and plenty of shots as the focal point of the team’s offense, and coach Tom Thibodeau continues to ride his starters for huge minutes.
The Knicks need a big bounce-back game, and Brunson has been up to the task whenever his team has needed him in the playoffs.
Value
While he doesn’t get nearly the usage of Brunson and the other star point guards, Mike Conley has quietly put together a strong series for the Timberwolves. Minnesota Mike has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards under $6,000 and the second-highest of all players on the slate in that price range.
Conley has scored double-digit points in six of his last seven games, highlighted by a nice double-double in Game 1 against the Nuggets that netted him 37 DraftKings points. He fell just one assist short of that mark in Game 4, totaling 34.5 DraftKings points. With at least six assists in each game in this series, Conley has found ways to contribute solid fantasy performances and establish himself as a reliable mid-range target at point guard.
Fast Break
Tyrese Haliburton scored 34, 35, and 20 points in the last three games in the series against the Knicks after struggling to just six points in Game 1. He has been much more aggressive at creating his own shot in recent games and shot over 50% from the field in each of those three contests. He has the second-highest ceiling, median, and floor projections at the position behind just Brunson, although his projections lag a bit behind his salary on a per-dollar basis.
The second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards comes from Jamal Murray, who has played through his calf injury and continued to come up clutch for the Nuggets. Murray had a miserable Game 2 in more ways than one, but he responded well with a pair of strong games on the road in which he exceeded salary-based expectations and helped his Nuggets climb back into the series.
On Sunday, T.J. McConnell had his second double-double in the four games in this series, finishing with a series-high 40.5 DraftKings points. He’s a great value at $5,100 but can be frustrating since he isn’t always on the floor in crunch time. Since Game 4 was a rout, he got extra playing time and delivered that huge performance. He has at least 29 DraftKings points in four of his last five games and has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of the point guards with salaries under $6,000.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Knicks wing Donte DiVincenzo has been key to New York’s success in the games they have won, and he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all shooting guards on Tuesday’s slate. He also has the second-highest ceiling, median, and floor projections at the position.
DiVincenzo had at least 25 points and at least 35 fantasy points in four straight games before a disappointing seven points in 32 minutes on Sunday in the Knicks’ blowout loss. DiVincenzo made just 3-of-13 field goal attempts in that game and played just 32 minutes after logging 44 minutes in each of the first three games of the series.
Especially without Anuboby, DiVincenzo will have to help shoulder the load on Tuesday at Madison Square Garden, where he seems to feed off the energy of the crowd. He’s averaging 0.82 DraftKings points per minute this postseason, but that number jumps to 0.92 DraftKings points per minute with Anunoby off the floor, and DiVincenzo’s usage jumps over five percentage points to 25.2%, second on the team behind only Brunson.
Value
The Pacers have been giving good minutes to both Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith in their playoff rotation. Nembhard is a little cheaper, but Nesmith has the higher Projected Plus/Minus and better ceiling, median, and floor projections on Tuesday. Nesmith’s Projected Plus/Minus is the third-highest at shooting guard and the highest of the options under $5,000 at the position.
Nesmith had a dozen rebounds on Sunday and finished with eight points, just short of a double-double. He still posted a solid 26 DraftKings points and has put up over 21 DraftKings points in four of his last five games. Despite his low usage, he does have streaky scoring potential and a good ceiling in Game 5 since he gets so many minutes when the game is competitive. He was questionable before Sunday’s game but is not on the injury report for Tuesday.
Fast Break
As a defensive specialist, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope doesn’t get much usage, but he did break through for 12 points in Game 3. He is averaging over 34 minutes per game in the playoffs and producing 0.51 DraftKings points per minute. He’s a relatively safe play since he gets so many minutes, but his upside is limited since he doesn’t take many shots. He has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard on Tuesday.
In each of the two games without Anunoby, Miles McBride has scored 10+ points for the Knicks. He had only 17.0 DraftKings points in Game 3 but stepped up with 30.25 DraftKings points in Game 4. Almost all of that production came in the second half with the game decided, but he may have earned more playing time on Tuesday. McBride is a good option at just $4,000 and does have more offensive potential than KCP, although he’s a much higher risk.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker is another boom-or-bust play at $4,000. He went off in Game 2 for 14 points and 30.5 DraftKings points but then virtually disappeared in the two games in Minnesota, managing only eight points total while shooting 3-for-12 from the field in those two contests.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Anthony Edwards has been one of the biggest stories of the playoffs, and he’ll look to continue to carry the Timberwolves in Game 5. He has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all shooting guards and all small forwards. He also has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at each position behind only DiVincenzo (discussed above), who costs more than $2,000 less.
Edwards had 44 points and 64.75 DraftKings points in Minnesota’s Game 4 loss. It was his highest mark of the series and his fifth game with over 55 DraftKings points in his eight games in the playoffs. He has averaged an elite 1.34 DraftKings points per minute in the playoffs with a 30.6% usage rate.
His emergence on the national scene has been one of the stories of the playoffs, but fantasy players have probably been riding with him most of the season. Whether you already knew about Ant or are just starting to learn about him recently, he’s clearly one of the brightest rising stars of the NBA and a great way to start your lineup today.
Value
In Game 4, Aaron Gordon (discussed below) stepped up with a huge game for the Nuggets while Michael Porter Jr. stepped back and only scored four points on four shots in 35 minutes. He had been more aggressive and productive earlier in this series, and our projections have him bouncing back on Tuesday. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward behind only DiVincenzo and Edwards, and he also has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward.
In the playoffs, MPJ is averaging a very solid 0.88 DraftKings points per minute in 37.6 minutes per game. His usage rate for the playoffs is 18.3%, which is why his 5.0% usage rate in Game 4 feels like an outlier. He’ll likely be back to his normal role and production in Game 5. Before Game 4, he scored 20+ points in six of his previous seven games.
Fast Break
Before playing limited minutes in Game 4, Josh Hart had four straight double-doubles with over 40 DraftKings points in each contest. He struggled badly in Game 4 along with the rest of his team and only finished with two points and 7.75 DraftKings points in 24 minutes. Coming home for Game 5, the Knicks will need him to bounce back. Hart will likely continue to play 40+ minutes and could play all 48 minutes as he did in each of the first two games of this series, producing 59.75 and 51.75 DraftKings points in those two contests.
For the Timberwolves, Jaden McDaniels plays the role of defensive specialist who gets plenty of minutes but not much usage. He is capable of spike games and has scored double-digit points in each of his last two games, but he has only averaged 0.68 DraftKings points per minute in 32.6 minutes per game this postseason. McDaniels has a little more offensive potential than KCP, but he plays a similar role for Minnesota. He makes a lot of sense as a value play if you need to spend up in other spots since his salary is just $4,300.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Karl-Anthony Towns has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all players on Tuesday’s slate. His salary is still reduced from his long injury layoff and his limited minutes right after his return. He looks to be almost back to full strength and brings a great ceiling for a player under $7,000.
Towns has at least 30 DraftKings points in five of his last six games and had 13 points and 12 rebounds for 36.0 DraftKings points in Game 4 on Sunday night. He played 38 minutes, though, which is a good sign even though he shot just 5-of-18 from the field. His shooting slump is a big reason why the Wolves lost Game 3 and Game 4, but his workload indicates he’s close to 100% and brings way more upside than his salary indicates.
KAT has averaged 1.19 DraftKings points per minute in the postseason and had a monster game with 27 points, 12 rebounds, and 51.5 DraftKings points in his most recent contest in Denver in Game 2. He’ll look to put up a similar stat line on Tuesday night and should easily return value with the potential for much more if he can shake off his shooting woes.
Value
Without Anunoby, Precious Achiuwa started each of the last two games for the Knicks. He had underwhelming fantasy totals of 17.5 and 15.5 DraftKings points but brings a much higher ceiling at home if he keeps getting the minutes. He actually played pretty well in Game 4 before it turned into a rout and he sat with the rest of the starters.
Achiuwa has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all power forwards with salaries under $6,000 and is one of the few value options at the position with regular minutes coming his way. He is averaging 0.76 DraftKings points per minute in the playoffs, and he has a massive projection of 36.0 minutes on Tuesday night. If he logs that much time on the court, he should return great value at only $4,300.
Fast Break
Aaron Gordon had a massive 50.75 DraftKings points in Game 4 on 27 points, seven boards, and six assists. He had a similar monster game in Game 3 against the Lakers in the last round before returning to his more limited role. Gordon definitely has the potential to go off for a ceiling game like those, and even his “regular” performances have been very solid for a player at his salary. He is averaging an excellent 0.92 DraftKings points per minute while playing the third-most minutes on the team behind only the superstar duo of Murray and Nikola Jokic.
Pascal Siakam also has the potential to go off for a monster game, although he hasn’t for a while. He started the playoffs with over 35 points in back-to-back double-doubles against the Bucks, totaling 62.75 DraftKings points in each contest. Since then he has not managed to come close to that level, only scoring 20+ points once and being held under 40 DraftKings points in seven of eight contests. With Haliburton taking more of an active scoring role, Siakam’s usage has taken a hit, although there’s still the potential for a breakout.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
There’s no bigger stud on the slate than Nikola Jokic, who has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all players at all positions. His salary is also staggering at $11,300, but he still brings the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the whole slate behind only Brunson and KAT.
In Game 4, Jokic posted over 60 DraftKings points with 35 points, seven boards, and seven assists. In his nine playoff games, Jokic has produced over 58 DraftKings points eight times including three of the four games in this series. Jokic is averaging 1.63 DraftKings points per minute in the playoffs with a 27.7% usage rate in 39.6 minutes per game.
While he’s extremely pricey, he has been good enough to still consider building around if you can find enough value at other positions. He has been incredibly consistent so far in the postseason regardless of matchup, and he also brings a sky-high ceiling, as the Nuggets try to take back control of the series at home, where they dropped Game 1 and Game 2.
Value
At barely more than the minimum, Isaiah Jackson has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all punt plays on the slate this Tuesday night. No player at any position with a salary under $6,000 has a better Projected Plus/Minus than Jackson.
In this series, He has played 13 minutes or more in each of the four games, with two games of over 20 DraftKings points and at least 10 DraftKings points in each game. He doesn’t have a super-high ceiling in his limited work, but he should be able to exceed salary-based expectations once again and is a great way to save a ton of salary either at center or in a utility spot alongside Jokic or other star plays.
Fast Break
Rudy Gobert missed Game 2 of the series for the birth of his child but returned for Game 3 and Game 4. He struggled in Game 3 but bounced back with a double-double and 31 DraftKings in Game 4. He has the tough task of slowing down Jokic, but as a result, he should get all the minutes he can handle. The Defensive Player of the Year should be able to provide blocks and boards and chip in solid enough scoring to be a good play at just over $6,000. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of centers on this slate.
If you opt to go cheap and don’t love Precious’ potential or Jackson’s playing time, check out Obi Toppin. Toppin is a good play at power forward or center and scored double-digit points in seven of his last eight games coming off the Pacers’ bench. He had 27 DraftKings points and 28.25 DraftKings points in the first two games of this series at Madison Square Garden, where he was a crowd favorite during his time with the Knicks.
