NBA DFS Picks Breakdown on DraftKings (Tuesday, January 7)

Tuesday features a seven-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Stud

The Hawks draw one of the best matchups of the day Tuesday vs. the Jazz. Utah has been a disaster defensively this season, with no team in basketball allowing more points per 100 possessions. As a result, the Hawks lead the slate with a 122.5 implied team total.

That’s enough to put Trae Young on the radar, but Young has also played some of his best basketball of late. He’s increased his production to 1.42 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which ranks second among Tuesday’s point guards. He’s also posted an average Plus/Minus of +2.73 over his past 10 contests, and he’s scored at least 50.0 DraftKings points in three of his past four.

Young ultimately has the fourth-highest ceiling projection on Tuesday’s slate, and the top three options are all significantly more expensive. There are tons of strong values to consider, and Young is a viable stud target to pair with them.

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Value

On the other side of that matchup, the Jazz are going to be really shorthanded. They’ve already ruled out six players, including two of their two backcourt options (Jordan Clarkson and Keyonte George). Lauri Markkanen is also listed as questionable, so there is plenty of value available in Utah.

Isaiah Collier moved into the starting lineup in their last game, and he should pick up another start vs. the Hawks. He’s currently projected for 30 minutes in our NBA Models, which makes him too cheap at $4,200. Historically, players with a comparable salary and minute projection have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.83 (per the Trends tool).

The matchup also stands out for Utah. The Hawks haven’t been quite as bad as the Jazz defensively, but they’ve played at the second-fastest pace this season. Utah’s implied team total ranks fourth on the slate, so there’s expected to be plenty of points scored on both sides.

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Fast Break

Austin Reaves has been absolutely scorching for the Lakers of late. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +12.13 over his past 10 contests, and he’s seen a big spike in value since D’Angelo Russell was traded away. He’s now averaged 38.11 minutes and 49.1 DraftKings points in five games without Russell, and his price tag has yet to reflect that increase in production.

With Jimmy Butler out of action, the Heat are going to have to get some production from different sources moving forward. Terry Rozier stands out as one of the most likely candidates. His role has been inconsistent so far this season, but he had 33.25 DraftKings points in a double-overtime loss on Monday. He probably won’t get back to 41.4 minutes on Tuesday, but his stock is definitely on the rise.

Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Anthony Edwards has been on a heater of late. He’s scored 61.75 and 65.5 DraftKings points in his past two outings, and he’s scored 90 total points in those contests. However, his salary has actually gone down slightly for Tuesday’s matchup vs. the Pelicans. He’s down to just $8,400 on DraftKings, resulting in an 82% Bargain Rating.

The Pelicans are a great matchup for Edwards to keep his scoring outburst rolling. They’re 29th in the league in defensive efficiency, and they’ve allowed the sixth-most made 3-pointers per game. Edwards has knocked down 16 triples in his past two contests, and he’s shooting more 3s than ever this season. This is the perfect spot for him to fill it up from deep once again.

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Value

Collin Sexton stands out as Utah’s top option on this slate. He’s not a true “value play” at $6,000, but he easily leads the field in projected Plus/Minus. Sexton is going to have to do a lot of the heavy lifting for the Jazz with their other top guards out of the lineup, and that’s not being reflected in his price tag.

Sexton has already been excellent recently, averaging 1.1 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he should pick up a few additional minutes vs. the Hawks. He should also be more efficient with his minutes. He’s averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute with Clarkson, George, and John Collins off the floor this season.

The only downside with Sexton is that he’s going to be extremely chalky. He’s currently projected for just under 45% ownership on DraftKings, but that’s still less than his optimal lineup rate in Sim Labs. Ultimately, it’s chalk that you should probably consider eating.

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Fast Break

Vit Kreji is priced at nearly the minimum at $3,200, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games. He’s played at least 28.4 minutes in two straight, and he managed to get to 34.5 DraftKings points in one of them. He probably won’t see that much action on Tuesday – each of Atlanta’s past two contests were blowouts – but he’s still projected for a reasonable 23 minutes in our NBA Models.

Jalen Green is starting to heat up for the Rockets. He’s scored 60 total points over his past two outings, and he’s finished with 51.0 and 38.25 DraftKings points. Green has had to do a bit more with Jabari Smith Jr. and Tari Eason out of the lineup, and both players are expected to miss Tuesday’s game as well. Green is also questionable with a knee injury, but he’s worth considering if he’s able to suit up.

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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Amen Thompson has been a per-minute stud since arriving in the NBA, but he hasn’t had the opportunity to play consistent minutes for most of his career. That has changed recently with the injuries to Smith and Eason. He got to 40.6 minutes in his first game back from a suspension, and he responded with 49.0 DraftKings points.

There’s no reason to expect much different on Tuesday. Thompson has averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he’s projected for another 36 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s simply too cheap for the amount of upside that he brings to the table.

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Value

The Mavericks are currently playing without Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, and they used a really weird starting lineup in their stead on Monday. The team went with no starting point guard, opting to surround Klay Thompson with four frontcourt players.

That included Naji Marshall. He was second on the team with 32.7 minutes and responded with 32.0 DraftKings points. There’s no guarantee that they’ll use the same four starters vs. the Lakers, but Marshall’s role in the rotation should be safe. He’s currently projected for 30 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s seen a +7.06% usage bump with Doncic and Irving off the court this season. He’s averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute in that split, so he’s an excellent value at just $4,600.

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Fast Break

Andrew Wiggins is coming off a poor showing in his last outing, but he was limited to just 26 minutes in a blowout loss. He should play significantly more if Tuesday’s game is more competitive, and he had scored at least 31.75 DraftKings points in his previous two contests. His price tag has also come down quite a bit since its peak, making him a solid buy-low candidate.

Michael Porter Jr. has seen a solid spike in playing time following the injury to Aaron Gordon. He’s logged at least 41.8 minutes in back-to-back games, and he racked up 46.5 DraftKings points in his last outing. MPJ has always been a solid per-minute producer, so the prospect of more consistent minutes makes him an appealing option.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

The Celtics are coming off a rare loss in their last outing, and they’ll face another stiff test on Tuesday. They’re taking on the Nuggets, and even though the game is being played in Denver, they’re still listed as six-point road favorites. They’re currently implied for 121.5 points, which is the second-highest mark on the slate.

That makes Jayson Tatum a worthy stud target. Tatum is arguably the league’s most underrated superstar, and he’s turning in one of the best fantasy seasons of his career. He’s been even better recently, averaging 1.53 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Tatum is also projected for 38 minutes in our NBA Models, which is the top mark on Tuesday’s slate. That’s a solid combination.

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Value

Brice Sensabaugh is another potential option for the shorthanded Jazz. He may not see as much playing time as some of their other value targets, but he makes up for it with outstanding per-minute efficiency. He’s averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s coming off 32.75 and 51.75 DraftKings points in his past two games. Sensabaugh saw a slight bump in minutes in his last outing with Markkanen out of the lineup, so he would become one of the top values on the slate if Markkanen is out once again.

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Fast Break

Naz Reid is another really strong per-minute producer, and he’s put that on display recently. He’s scored at least 31.75 DraftKings points in three of his past four games, and he’s had more than 37 DraftKings points in two of them. That gives him a really nice ceiling at just $4,500, and his current price tag comes with a 90% Bargain Rating.

Like MPJ, Peyton Watson is another player who is going to have to step up with Gordon sidelined. He played nearly 34 minutes in his last outing, resulting in 26.0 DraftKings points, and he’s projected for another 28 minutes vs. the Celtics. He’s underpriced at $3,700.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Nikola Jokic doesn’t stand out as a particularly strong option in our models in a tough matchup vs. the Celtics. Still, it’s impossible to ignore what he’s done this season. The three-time MVP has taken his already absurd production to another level, averaging 31.5 points, 13.0 rebounds, and 9.7 assists per game. The Nuggets have needed him to do literally everything to keep them afloat, and Jokic has proven up to the task.

The scariest part is that Jokic has the potential to be even better without Gordon. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six straight games despite routinely being priced at $12k+. That includes back-to-back games with at least 82.25 DraftKings points. Jokic has increased his production to 1.99 DraftKings points per minute with Gordon off the floor this season, and that figure increases to a mind-boggling 2.02 in full games without Gordon.

Jokic is up to $12,500 vs. the Celtics, but I’m not sure how you can fade him at this point. I’m not sure there’s a price tag I wouldn’t pay for him, especially on a slate with plenty of value.

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Value

Dereck Lively II doesn’t figure to see a huge spike in usage sans Doncic and Irving, but he did attempt a season-high 11 shots without both players on Monday. He responded with 38.0 DraftKings points at just $5,300.

The more encouraging sign for his fantasy prospects was the nearly 33 minutes of playing time. Lively has averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute for the year, so if he’s going to continue to play that much moving forward, he’s going to provide plenty of value.

Lively’s price tag is down to $5,100 for Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Lakers, and it’s an excellent spot. They’ve struggled defensively this season, especially on the interior. They’re 21st in defensive efficiency, and they’ve allowed the third-most points per game in the paint.

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Fast Break

Rudy Gobert is down to just $5,500 on DraftKings, and that kind of price tag would’ve been unfathomable in years past. His production hasn’t been nearly as good so far this season, but he’s projected for 33 minutes in our NBA Models. There’s a chance he turns things around moving forward, and if he does, he’s going to provide immense value.

It’s always tough to predict how the minutes at center are going to play out in Atlanta. It’s typically a pretty even split between Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu, which gives both players a wide range of outcomes. That said, both players also have solid ceilings, especially in an elite matchup vs. the Jazz.