NBA DFS Picks Breakdown on DraftKings (Tuesday, December 31)

Happy New Year’s Eve! Tuesday features a four-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Stud

There aren’t a ton of high-priced options to pay up for on the four-game slate, but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is one of the exceptions. He’s up to $11,000 on DraftKings, and while that’s a big number, it hasn’t been an issue for him recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past six outings, and he’s scored at least 63.0 DraftKings points in three of his past four. That includes his most recent outing, despite the fact that he played just 28.1 minutes in a blowout win.

Overall, SGA has increased his production to 1.62 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which ranks second among all players on Tuesday’s slate. He’s not grading out particularly well in a tough matchup vs. the Timberwolves, but he has the clear top ceiling at the position. 

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Value

Scottie Pippen Jr. disappointed in his last game without Ja Morant, finishing with just 25.25 DraftKings points in 23.8 minutes. The good news is he’ll get another chance on Tuesday. The team is going to be even more shorthanded than they were on Sunday, with Morant, Marcus Smart, and Zach Edey all ruled out with injuries.

Pippen was still excellent on a per-minute basis in his last outing, and he’s been elite in that department in games without Morant all season. He’s averaged 1.24 DraftKings points per minute in that split, and he’s expected to see closer to 30 minutes on Tuesday’s slate. It’s an elite bounce-back spot, and Pippen leads all PGs in projected Plus/Minus.

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Fast Break

Tyus Jones is down to $5,200 on DraftKings, which represents a decrease of -$1,000 from his peak earlier this month. That gives him some buy-low appeal. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.42 with a comparable salary as a member of the Suns (per the Trends tool), and the Suns are in a massive pace-up spot vs. the Grizzlies. Memphis has played at the fastest pace in the league this season, and the Suns’ 120.0 implied team total represents a significant increase from their season average (112.2).

Chris Paul revenge game? Some of his best years came with the Clippers, and he’ll square off with them on Tuesday night. Paul has also put together a solid stretch recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in three of his past four games. He’s still capable of getting the job done at a high level, averaging 1.07 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he’s coming off 41.25 DraftKings points in his last outing.

Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

The Cavaliers have been an absolute wagon this season. They’ve cruised to the best record in basketball, winning 28 of their first 32 games while ranking second in the league in Net Rating.

Donovan Mitchell isn’t having quite the same statistical season that he’s had in the past, but he remains the team’s top offensive threat. He’s increased his production to 1.36 DraftKings points over the past month, and he’s scored at least 43.75 DraftKings points in two of his past three games. The lone exception was his last outing vs. the Warriors, where he was limited to just 27.4 minutes in a blowout win.

Tuesday’s contest vs. the Lakers is expected to be more competitive, and if Mitchell returns to his usual workload, he’s a good bet to pay off his $8,400 price tag.

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Value

Donte DiVincenzo has appeared to catch fire. That happened during the end of his Knicks’ tenure, and it’s happening again with the Timberwolves. He’s knocked down at least five 3-pointers in back-to-back games, and he’s scored at least 41.0 DraftKings points in both.

His playing time is also up for the Timberwolves of late. He’s played at least 24.7 minutes in five of his past six outings, and he’s been at 33.7 or more in two straight. If he’s going to continue to play that much, he’s a massive steal at just $4,600. DiVincenzo has averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he’s up to 1.01 over the past month. His current price tag comes with a 93% Bargain Rating, making him a really tough fade on this slate.

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Fast Break

Luke Kennard is even cheaper than DiVincenzo, and he should continue to see a few additional minutes given the Grizzlies’ current injury situation. He’s scored at least 20.0 DraftKings points in three straight games, and he’s averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute with Morant off the floor this season.

Norman Powell is on a serious heater for the Clippers. He’s playing tons of minutes at the moment, logging at least 40.2 in three of his past four contests, and he’s also increased his per-minute efficiency. He’s averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is a scary combination. The result is an average Plus/Minus of +6.13 over his past 10 outings, including 46.75 DraftKings points in his last game. His price tag is up for Tuesday’s matchup vs. the Spurs, but he’s still capable of returning value. It could also result in reduced ownership, which increases his appeal for tournaments.

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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Desmond Bane is another strong option for the Grizzlies. He’s been excellent to begin with of late, averaging 1.29 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s going to have to carry more of the load with Morant out of the lineup. He had 39.75 DraftKings points in just 29.1 minutes in his last contest, and he should pick up a few additional minutes if Tuesday’s game is more competitive.

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Value

Sticking with the Grizzlies, John Konchar is coming off a massive performance for the team on Sunday. He played 34.4 minutes and responded with 33.75 DraftKings points, and he’s now averaged 1.03 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.

Some of that came in garbage time, so Konchar probably won’t get to 30+ minutes again on Tuesday. However, he’s still projected for a healthy 29 minutes in our NBA Models. He leads all players on the slate in projected Plus/Minus, making him an elite value target at just $4,200.

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Fast Break

Jaden McDaniels continues to stand out as underpriced at $4,200. He had a double-double in the Timberwolves’ last game, resulting in 30.5 DraftKings points. His playing time has been a bit volatile of late – he’s had 32.1, 20.1, 34.6, and 20.2 minutes in his past four games – but he’s a great bet to return value when his minutes aren’t limited. He’s now posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his past nine outings.

Devin Vassell is another excellent value on the wing. He’s a bit more expensive at $6,000, but that undersells the amount of upside he brings to the table. He started the year playing limited minutes, but he’s back to playing a full-time role. Vassell has finished with at least 33.8 minutes in three straight games, and he’s averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute for the year.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

It’s impossible to ignore the upside that Jaren Jackson Jr. brings to the table on Tuesday. He’s already a fantastic per-minute producer, averaging 1.33 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s been the biggest beneficiary with Morant off the floor this season. He’s increased his usage rate by +4.99%, and no one else on the team sees a bump of more than +1.91. Unsurprisingly, that has led to a spike in production, with Jackson averaging 1.46 DraftKings points per minute in that split.

His salary has shot all the way up to $8,700 on DraftKings, which represents an increase of nearly $1,000 when compared to his last outing. However, he still has the potential to crush that figure. He has at least 50.25 DraftKings points in two of his past three games, and those were with Morant in the lineup.

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Value

Keldon Johnson was once considered the future of the Spurs, but he’s become a bit of a forgotten man. He’s down to just $3,500 on DraftKings, and he’s playing reduced minutes off the bench.

That said, he’s still averaged a strong 0.91 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he’s increased that figure to 0.94 over the past month. In other words, he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to potentially return value. Johnson has scored at least 20.5 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, and he leads the PF position in projected Plus/Minus on Tuesday.

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Fast Break

Derrick Jones is seeing a solid chunk of minutes for the Clippers at the moment. He’s racked up at least 29.5 in back-to-back games, and he’s projected for another 27 Tuesday vs. the Spurs. That makes him a clear target at $3,600. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.20.

Devin Booker is questionable to return to the lineup on Tuesday after practicing with the team on Monday. However, if he’s unable to go, Kevin Durant would remain a prime stud target. He’s already one of the best scorers in the league, and he’s seen a sizable usage bump with Booker off the floor this season.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Ivica Zubac may not have the same name value as some of the top centers on this slate, but he’s playing as well as anyone at the moment. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in eight straight games, and he’s scored at least 40.75 DraftKings points in seven of them.

Despite all that production, his salary has barely budged. He’s up to just $7,700 for Tuesday’s matchup vs. the Spurs, and it’s hard not to like him at that salary. He’s projected for 34 minutes in our NBA Models and has averaged 1.21 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.

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Value

Jusuf Nurkic is currently serving a three-game suspension for Phoenix, meaning Mason Plumlee should draw his second straight start. He didn’t have a single field goal attempt in his first outing but still managed to finish with 25.25 DraftKings points. He had nine rebounds, six assists, one steal, and one block, so he was able to contribute in a number of different areas.

Plumlee is expected to see a similar workload on Tuesday, and he’s averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. That makes him underpriced at $4,500.

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Fast Break

Victor Wembanyama is probably a bit overpriced for his most likely outcome, but there’s no denying his upside. He’s had at least 66.0 DraftKings points in three of his past six contests, and he’s coming off 30 shot attempts in his last game. Overall, he’s averaged 1.74 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he’s capable of breaking the slate every time he takes the floor.

Jay Huff continues to see around 15-20 minutes per game for the Grizzlies, and that’s enough for him to return value. He’s averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he had 21.25 DraftKings points in his last game.