NBA DFS Picks Breakdown on DraftKings (Tuesday, December 10)

Tuesday features a two-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Stud

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is coming off one of his worst fantasy performances of the season in his last outing. He finished with 31 points, but he provided virtually nothing in the peripheral categories and tallied just 38.0 DraftKings points.

That said, that performance stands out as a clear outlier. It’s basically his only game with fewer than 47.25 DraftKings points in the past month, and it’s caused his price tag to dip to just $10,000 for Tuesday’s matchup vs. the Mavericks.

That sets up a clear buy-low situation. His price tag comes with an 86% Bargain Rating, and SGA has historically averaged more than 51 DraftKings points with a comparable price tag (per the Trends tool).

The Thunder are also one of the top team targets on Tuesday. Their 117.75 implied team total ranks first among the four teams, making SGA a logical pay-up target.

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Value

While SGA is a clear stud, he’s far from the best value at the position on Tuesday. That designation belongs to Cole Anthony, who is poised for a massive spike in value for the shorthanded Magic. They’re currently down their top two scorers in Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, and someone is going to have to pick up the slack.

Anthony is one of the top choices. He’s seen a +2.54% usage bump with both players off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.19 DraftKings points per minute. He saw 28.7 minutes in his first contest without both players and finished with 26.5 DraftKings points.

He’s projected for another 24 minutes on Tuesday, making him massively underpriced at just $4,200. He’s not just the best value at the position; he’s the best pure value on the slate.

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Fast Break

Jalen Suggs is also going to have to do more scoring for the Magic moving forward. He’s seen a 3.82% bump to his usage rate without Banchero and Wagner, and he’s averaged just under a fantasy point per minute in that split. He posted a 33.6% usage rate sans both players in his last outing, giving him plenty of upside at $7,300.

Luka Doncic doesn’t grade out particularly well in terms of projected Plus/Minus, but he’s always capable of breaking a slate. He’s also been on a serious heater of late. He’s averaged 1.69 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s scored at least 70.5 DraftKings points in three of his past four games. He’ll have to navigate a brutal matchup vs. the Thunder, but Doncic is capable of going off against anyone.

Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

You only have once choice if paying up at shooting guard on Tuesday: Kyrie Irving. Irving is the only player priced above $5,900 on DraftKings, and he unsurprisingly leads the position in both median and ceiling projection. That inherently has value on a small slate. If Irving hits his ceiling – and other players pop off at others – he could very easily end up in the optimal lineup.

Still, Irving is a pretty middling option from a value standpoint. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in seven of his past 10 games, and his production has dipped to 1.16 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He has the second-worst projected Plus/Minus at the position, so he’s much more viable in tournaments than cash games.

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Value

Alex Caruso is back for the Thunder, and he’s provided positive value in each of his first two outings since returning from injury. His playing time also increased from 17.4 minutes in his first outing to 24.1 in his second, and he’s projected for another 24 minutes on Tuesday’s slate.

That is more than enough time for him to potentially pay off his current salary. Caruso is down to just $3,700, and he’s averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute for the year. He’s at 1.07 DraftKings points per minute since returning, and Caruso has historically averaged a +1.02 Plus/Minus with a comparable salary and minute projection. Ultimately, he has minimal downside at his current price tag, and he also brings a smidge of upside to the table.

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Fast Break

Anthony Black is another member of the Magic who is going to have to do a bit more moving forward. He played 25.6 minutes in his first game without Banchero and Wagner, and he’s seen a +2.81% usage bump with both players off the floor. That hasn’t led to a huge spike in production – his average of 0.82 DraftKings points per minute in that split is identical to his season average – but it theoretically gives him more upside.

Cason Wallace continues to provide steady production for the Thunder. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games, yet his price tag has dipped to $3,900 for Tuesday’s matchup vs. the Mavericks. He will likely lose some minutes to Caruso moving forward, but he’s still projected for 25 minutes in our NBA Models.

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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Small forward is easily the weakest position on this slate. It includes a lot of the same players as shooting guard… only without Irving at the top. No one is priced above $5,900 at the position, with Khris Middleton leading the way. Middleton’s still working his way back from an injury, so he’s very hard to get excited about.

After him, Naji Marshall is the only other player priced above $4,600, and he’s not even guaranteed to suit up. He’s currently projected for just 20 minutes vs. the Thunder, so he’s also out of the equation.

I’ve written this article hundreds of times in my life, and I don’t think I’ve ever elected to go with no stud option at a position. I’m making that decision today. There’s simply no reason to force someone in when you’re better off going with someone further down the board.

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Value

Lu Dort has been a bit of a rollercoaster this season. He had a stretch where he provided excellent value, followed by six straight games with a negative Plus/Minus on DraftKings. That’s caused his price tag to plummet from $5,900 at its peak to just $4,400 on Tuesday.

Dort has bounced back with a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past two games, and he’s extremely viable at his reduced price tag. He’s still projected for 34 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.35. Dort has personally provided a +4.53 Plus/Minus in 21 previous occurrences in that split, and that figure jumps to +7.26 in two games so far this season.

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Fast Break

Dort and Caruso should soak up the vast majority of ownership at SF, making Klay Thompson an interesting pivot for tournaments. Thompson isn’t playing as much for the Mavericks as he was to start the year, but he’s still capable of catching fire from behind the arc. He got up 16 shots in his 25 minutes on Saturday, resulting in 28.25 DraftKings points.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Giannis Antetokounmpo is playing basketball on Tuesday, which is enough to make him a viable fantasy option. Antetokounmpo is putting together another phenomenal season for the Bucks and fantasy players, averaging 1.71 DraftKings points per minute. He’s also playing more than he has during the regular season than at any other point in his career: he’s projected for 38 minutes Tuesday vs. the Magic.

Giannis’ price tag got above $12,000 on DraftKings recently, but it’s down to just $11,100 currently. That’s still a ton, but it’s a value for Giannis. It results in a Bargain Rating of 86%, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.79 with a comparable salary since the start of the 2022-23 season. So far this season, he’s averaged a +3.20 Plus/Minus in that split.

The matchup vs. the Magic is far from ideal, but Giannis still brings one of the highest possible ceilings to the table. There are plenty of studs to choose from on Tuesday, but Giannis certainly warrants consideration.

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Value

Wendell Carter Jr. flopped in his first game without Banchero and Wagner, finishing with just 13.75 DraftKings points in 20.9 minutes. That’s a concern, but there are reasons to believe in improvement on Tuesday. For starters, he should see a bump in playing time. He’s projected for 26 minutes, so he should see more court time at a minimum.

Carter has also been a decent fantasy producer for most of the year. He’s averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute, and while that’s not an elite figure, it’s good enough at $5,200. He leads the position in projected Plus/Minus, making him a viable buy-low target.

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Fast Break

Jalen Williams is another potential pay-up target for the Thunder. He hit a bit of a rough patch recently, posting a negative Plus/Minus four times in a five-game stretch, but he bounced back with 50 DraftKings points in his last outing. His salary has also decreased slightly after peaking at $9,200, and he leads the position with nine Pro Trends.

P.J. Washington is questionable for the Mavericks, but if he’s able to suit up, he’s an interesting target for tournaments. He should command minimal ownership, but he’s provided decent upside of late. He’s increased his production to 1.08 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s projected for 35 minutes in our NBA Models.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Isaiah Hartenstein finally hit a bit of a rough patch for the Thunder. He had just 24.25 DraftKings points three games ago, but he played just 22.2 minutes in a blowout win. He also failed to return value in his past two outings, though he still posted a respectable 35.0 and 36.5 DraftKings points.

Hartenstein’s salary has come back down to $7,100 after peaking at $7,600, and he’s tough to ignore at that figure. He’s played fewer minutes with Caruso back in the fold, but he’s still averaged 1.29 DraftKings points per minute for the year. That gives him the chance to return value in around 30 minutes of playing time.

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Value

It’s a tough choice between Dereck Lively and Goga Bitadze for the top value spot at center. Our projections give the slightest of edges to Lively in terms of projected Plus/Minus, but I personally give the edge to Bitadze. Both players are projected for exactly 26 minutes, but Bitadze brings more upside to the table. He’s seen the largest usage bump on the team with Wagner and Banchero off the floor (+6.24%), and he’s averaged a stout 1.40 DraftKings points per minute in that split. He racked up 48.0 DraftKings points in 30.6 minutes in his first game without both players, and his $5,400 price tag would be really cheap if that kind of usage holds.

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Fast Break

Of course, Lively is still a viable target in his own right. He’s averaged more fantasy points per minute than Bitadze over the course of the full season and is slightly cheaper at $5,100. His playing time has also trended upward recently, logging at least 27.4 minutes in two of his past three games.

Daniel Gafford splits time with Lively in Dallas, and he’s on the short end from a playing time perspective. However, he makes up for it with superior per-minute production. He’s averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute this season, and that figure has increased to 1.32 over the past month.