NBA DFS Picks Breakdown on DraftKings (Tuesday, April 1)

Tuesday features a six-game main slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.

Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Stud

As is often the case in late-season NBA DFS, finding value on Tuesday’s slate is not difficult. The bigger challenge is deciding which studs to pay up for. There aren’t a ton of high-priced options that stand out as particularly good values in our NBA Models.

Fortunately, there’s always the Hawks. Atlanta plays at one of the fastest paces in the league, and their matchup vs. the Blazers leads the slate with a 237.5-point total. Their 122 implied team total also ranks first on the slate, making them a clear team to target.

Trae Young has been an excellent source of value for the Hawks recently. He’s increased his production to 1.40 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past seven outings. That includes at least 55.5 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. Young leads the position in ceiling projection, so he’s a viable stud target vs. Portland.

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Value

Ryan Rollins continues to stand out for the Bucks at point guard. He’s seen a nice spike in playing time with Damian Lillard out of the lineup recently, and he’s responded with a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games. He has at least 27.75 DraftKings points in two of those contests, and he’s logged at least 27.7 minutes in back-to-back games.

Rollins is projected for another 28 minutes on Tuesday’s slate, and he’s averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute for the year. He’s underpriced at $4,300, resulting in a 93% Bargain Rating.

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Fast Break

Anfernee Simons is questionable for the Blazers, but he would be an outstanding option if he’s able to suit up. The Blazers have already ruled out Scoot Henderson, while Jerami Grant is listed as doubtful. Simons has seen a +1.56% bump to his usage rate with both players off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.03 DraftKings points per minute. His price tag is slightly down for his matchup vs. the Hawks, which is about as good as it gets: His +3.71 Opponent Plus/Minus is the top mark at the position.

Jamal Shead is another excellent value target at the position. He’s scored at least 30.0 DraftKings points in four of his past five games, including three straight. He’s increased his production to 1.07 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s projected for 26 minutes vs. the Bulls. He will have to deal with the return of Immanuel Quickley on Tuesday, but R.J. Barrett will get the night off for rest purposes. It should keep Shead relevant in the team’s rotation, and his $4,600 price tag comes with a 95% Bargain Rating.

Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

The Suns have had a nightmare season, but they’re still fighting for a spot in the Western Conference Play-In Tournament. They’re currently 1.0 game behind the Kings in the standings, and they’re only 1.5 games behind the Mavericks.

Unfortunately, they’re going to have to make up the distance without Kevin Durant. He won’t travel with the team for the start of their three-game road trip, and he’s already been ruled out for Tuesday’s contest vs. the Bucks. Bradley Beal is also questionable with a hamstring injury, so they could be without two of their top three scorers.

That leaves Devin Booker as the team’s clear top offensive option. He’s seen a +2.79% usage bump with Durant off the floor this season, and he’s seen a +3.75% bump with Durant and Beal sidelined. Booker is also expected to see all the minutes he can handle with the team fighting for their playoff lives, with no shooting guard projected for more than his 38 minutes.

Booker is currently projected for less than 15% ownership on Tuesday, making him an interesting contrarian pay-up option for tournaments.

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Value

Dalano Banton should see a bump for the Blazers with Henderson out of the lineup. He’s always been a solid per-minute producer – he’s averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute this season – and he’s projected for 20 minutes in our NBA Models. That should be enough for him to return value at just $3,300. He’s had a comparable salary and minute projection in five previous games with the Blazers, and he’s responded with an average Plus/Minus of +8.02 (per the Trends tool).

If Simons is also ruled out on Tuesday, Banton would move into must-play territory. As things stand currently, he still has the fourth-best projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate.

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Fast Break

The Knicks continue to play without their top three point guards, including Jalen Brunson. That has allowed Mikal Bridges to take on a bigger role in the offense. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his past nine games, including four games with at least 41.75 DraftKings points. He remains reasonably priced at $6,900, and he draws a juicy matchup vs. a 76ers squad that has struggled defensively since losing Joel Embiid.

Ja’Kobe Walter is another potential value option for the Raptors. He’s coming off 42.0 DraftKings points in his last outing, and he’s had at least 20.0 in five straight games. He’s projected for another 30 minutes on Tuesday with Barrett sidelined, so he’s a safe bet at $4,100.

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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

OG Anunoby stands out as the best combination of value and upside at small forward. He has the third-highest projected ceiling, trailing only the significantly more expensive Franz Wagner and Jimmy Butler. He also ranks fourth at the position in projected Plus/Minus. That’s a nice combination.

Like Bridges, Anunoby has been asked to do a bit more offensively with Brunson sidelined. He’s seen a +4.18% bump to his usage rate in 13 games without his star teammate, and he’s averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute in those contests. Anunoby has posted a positive Plus/Minus in five straight games, and he’s scored at least 41.75 DraftKings points in four straight. He’s also had two games with more than 50 DraftKings points since Brunson went down, including in his last outing.

Add it all up, and $7,300 is simply too cheap for Anunoby vs. the 76ers. 

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Value

Dalen Terry grades out as one of the strongest values of the day in our NBA Models. The Bulls are on the second leg of a back-to-back, so we’re still waiting on their official injury report. That said, they were without both Lonzo Ball and Kevin Huerter on Monday, and it wouldn’t be surprising if they were even more shorthanded vs. the Raptors.

Terry has seen an uptick in playing time of late, logging at least 23 minutes in three of his past four games. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all four of those contests, and he’s projected for 28 minutes vs. Toronto. Terry has also managed to get to 28.5 DraftKings points in one of his recent outings, giving him a bit of upside at $3,600.

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Fast Break

Deni Avdija continues to absolutely smash for the Blazers. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +13.71 over his past 10 games, and he’s gone for more than 40 DraftKings points in eight of those contests. His salary has started to reflect his increased production – he’s up to $8,100 vs. the Hawks – but he still has plenty of ceiling at that figure. He’s averaged 1.30 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he leads the position with 11 Pro Trends.

Julian Champagnie is a potential punt play for the Spurs at $3,300. He’s seen at least 22.5 minutes in four of his past five games, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each. He’s averaged 0.84 DraftKings points per minute for the year, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to potentially pay off his near-minimum salary.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Giannis Antetokounmpo has not been at his best recently, posting a negative Plus/Minus in seven of his past nine games. His per-minute production is also slightly down over the past month.

Still, the gap between Antetokounmpo and the rest of the field is massive on Tuesday. He has the top ceiling projection in our NBA Models by nearly 10 points, and his average of 1.71 DraftKings points per minute crushes everyone else on the slate. Karl-Anthony Towns is second in that department, and he’s at just 1.42.

Giannis also draws a favorable matchup. He’s taking on the Suns, who rank 28th in defensive efficiency since the All-Star break. He’s expensive at $12,100, but that’s not a big deal on a slate with plenty of value. If he hits his ceiling, there’s a good chance he’s in the optimal lineup.

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Value

Royce O’Neale has been a non-factor for the Suns recently, but that could change with Durant out of the lineup. He’s currently projected for 28 minutes in our NBA Models, and O’Neale has historically been a strong per-minute producer. He’s averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he’s increased that figure to 0.93 over the past month. Players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.83, so O’Neale is definitely viable at $4,000.

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Fast Break

Keldon Johnson’s minutes remain inconsistent for the Spurs, but he’s been taking advantage of whatever he gets. He was limited to less than 21.5 minutes in his last outing, but he still managed to return value at $5,100. When he played more in the two games prior, he got to 35.5 and 35.0 DraftKings points. That means he has the potential to succeed regardless of the outcome, and it gives him a strong ceiling when he plays toward the high side of his minute range.

Santi Aldama played more than 35 minutes off the bench on Monday, and he’s projected for 32 minutes on the second leg of a back-to-back. He played limited minutes in his return to the lineup following an injury, so that’s a big step in the right direction. Aldama has been a points-per-minute monster when on the floor this season, so he’s underpriced if he’s going to continue to play 30+ minutes.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Karl-Anthony Towns has struggled in back-to-back games for the Knicks, but he’s been limited to 32.1 minutes or less in both contests. He played at least 34.5 minutes in each of his prior three outings, and he scored at least 52.75 DraftKings points in each.

That makes him a high-risk, high-reward option vs. the 76ers. It’s a phenomenal matchup, and Towns has seen a +4.88% bump to his usage rate with Brunson off the floor this season. He’s increased his production to 1.53 DraftKings points per minute in that split, so he has a big ceiling if he sees a few additional minutes on Tuesday.

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Value

Sandro Mamukelashvili has reached the point where we need some exposure to him on most slates. He’s going to bust more often than not, but when he goes off, he has slate-breaking upside at his price tag. He racked up 36.75 DraftKings points in 25.1 minutes on Sunday, and that’s not particularly fluky. He’s averaged 1.37 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he has the potential to go nuts whenever he’s on the floor.

Mamukelashvili’s price tag has dipped to just $3,400 for Tuesday’s matchup vs. the Magic, resulting in a 94% Bargain Rating. That gives him even more upside than usual.

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Fast Break

Jakob Poeltl has been in and out of the lineup for the Raptors as they wrap up a disappointing season. That said, Poeltl has been phenomenal when he’s been on the floor. He’s increased his output to 1.58 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s scored at least 46.5 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. Those have come in fantastic matchups vs. the Wizards and Hornets, and he’ll take the floor in another wonderful spot Tuesday vs. the Bulls.

Mouhamed Gueye is priced at just $3,200 on DraftKings, and he saw more than 19 minutes for the Hawks in their last game. Gueye has average right around a fantasy point per minute for the year, so that’s enough to make him fantasy-relevant. Only Mamukelashvili has a better projected Plus/Minus at the position, though Gueye doesn’t bring a ton of upside to the table.

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