Before the NBA Playoffs officially begin, the Play-In Tournament will unfold this week, starting with a two-game slate on Tuesday. The Lakers and Pelicans meet in the first game, which tips off at 7:30 p.m. ET when contests lock. The winner of that game will advance to play the Nuggets in the first round, while the loser will face the winner of the second game of the night for a chance to advance and face the Thunder. The second game should be a thriller with the potential to be an instant classic. It’s an elimination game between the Warriors and Kings, who finished with the exact same record and met last year in an epic seven-game first-round series. We’re fast-forwarding through the series this time and jumping right to the win-and-advance part of the program.
Overall, it’s a pretty clean injury report coming into the day. Be sure to stay tuned for updates, though, and refresh the NBA Models for the latest adjustments.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Point guard is stuffed with good options even on this four-team slate, but De’Aaron Fox stands out as the top option in our projections. Fox has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections along with the highest Projected Plus/Minus and most Pts/Sal at the position.
Fox won the Clutch Player of the Year award last year and loves to step up on the big stage like this. Last year, he averaged 27.4 points, 7.7 assists, 5.4 rebounds, and 2.2 steals in 38.5 minutes per game in the Kings’ seven-game set against Golden State. This season, he averaged 51.0 DKFP per game in his three games in this matchup with the Warriors.
While he battled injury earlier this season, Fox looked great down the stretch, averaging 1.29 DraftKings points per minute over his last 10 games with at least 20 points in each of those contests. With Malik Monk (knee) unavailable as a spark plug off the bench, Fox will have to carry more of the offensive workload and will likely play a heavy workload of minutes in this elimination contest.
Value
With Brandon Ingram (knee) out over the last few weeks, C.J. McCollum has stepped up for the Pelicans, and even with Ingram available on Tuesday, McCollum should still help carry the load. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards on this slate behind only Fox.
After Ingram sustained his injury, McCollum out-produced salary-based expectations in 11 of his last 13 games, averaging 1.21 DraftKings points per minute. He had the second-highest usage rate on the team behind only Zion Williamson during that stretch and averaged an impressive 27.0 points, 5.8 assists, and 5.0 rebounds in 38.2 minutes per game. He scored at least 25 points in seven straight to finish the season, and he’s a good pivot from Fox if you want to go a little cheaper but still get plenty of usage and upside.
Fast Break
There’s no arguing with the ceiling of Stephen Curry. The legend could go off with a signature performance and carry his team through to the next round of the Play-In Tournament. Recently, Fox and McCollum have been more consistent plays, but Curry hit at least five three-pointers in each of his last four games of the regular season and had a great series against Fox and the Kings last year. Despite all the drama throughout the season, Curry averaged 1.31 DraftKings points per minute and 42.9 DraftKings points per game.
Point guard doesn’t have a ton of cheap plays on the board on this slate, but Davion Mitchell and Keon Ellis (discussed more below) stand out as the top plays under $5,000 as they help fill in for Monk’s absence.
Dyson Daniels has been a solid value play since returning for the Pelicans. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last eight games, averaging 0.90 DraftKings points per minute. There is some risk that he’ll lose minutes with Ingram back, but the 21-year-old rookie from Australia helps the Pelicans have added versatility and defensive intensity when on the floor, so I think he’ll still find a way into the rotation.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
The Warriors have the highest implied team total on the board as they head to Sacramento, but Curry will need some help to get them past the Kings. Klay Thompson has had plenty of success alongside him in their careers and is poised for another strong postseason performance. Thompson has the highest ceiling projection of all shooting guards on this slate and the second-highest median and floor projections at the position, just behind Ingram. Klay also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all shooting guards.
Thompson had some rough patches earlier in the season but finished strong, exceeding salary-based expectations in six straight games to finish the regular season, producing 1.26 DraftKings points per minute. He averaged 24.7 points, 3.3 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and almost five three-pointers per contest during that stretch.
As a proven playoff performer, Thompson will look to keep that form going in this matchup against the Kings, whom he has terrorized throughout his successful run with the Warriors.
Value
Keon Ellis is one of the best salary savers on the slate in the backcourt. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at both guard positions of all players with salaries under $6,000. Ellis has had to step up with Monk and Kevin Huerter (shoulder) sidelined, and his role has grown over the last month of the season.
Ellis started the last 15 games of the Kings’ regular season and produced 0.82 DraftKings points per minute. He got more usage down the stretch and had three games with at least 13 points in the last four games of the season. He also showed off a high ceiling by dropping 26 points, six rebounds, and five assists for 50.5 DraftKings points in a loss to the Thunder. While the Kings don’t want him to have to carry that much of the load in this contest, he can fill multiple columns in the box score and chip in enough to return good value at his affordable salary.
Fast Break
Ingram is a wild card on this small slate since he has such a high ceiling but has only played 23 minutes in the last three weeks. He returned from his left knee bone contusion in the regular season finale but had a team-worst minus-28 and only a 20.3% usage rate. If Ingram is healthy, he could be key to the Pelicans winning and advancing, but if he’s as limited as he looked on Sunday, he will end up being way overpriced. I see him as only a GPP option.
Austin Reaves proved his playoff mettle last season and is a solid mid-range target, although his usage will likely be lessened as LeBron James and Anthony Davis carry the load in the postseason. Reaves is still a mid-range play with good upside if you want to pivot away from Klay.
Aside from the Kings, the best value play at shooting guard will be Warriors rookie Brandin Podziemski. Podz has been very impressive this year, but the Warriors may lean more on experience with Chris Paul, Curry, and Thompson absorbing most of the work in the backcourt. I like his upside, but he’s riskier than Ellis since his role is less secure.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
The Lakers will go as far as LeBron James and Anthony Davis are ready to carry them. In a one-game “series,” we’ve seen how well the Lakers can be, as they won the inaugural In-Season Tournament earlier this season. Could they add a Play-In Tournament win as well? I’m not ready to pick against them, especially after they housed the Pelicans on Sunday in a preview of this Play-In matchup.
James is officially probable, but he’s almost certainly going to play. He had an impressive triple-double with 28 points, 17 assists, and 11 rebounds for 81.75 DraftKings points in the season-ending win. Davis left that game, but even with AD on the court, look for James to dominate the game again on Tuesday.
He has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projection of all small forwards on this slate and the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position as well. He has the second-highest ceiling projection on the entire slate and the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus. While this isn’t officially the Playoffs yet, we should get “Playoff LeBron” at his finest, and the Pelicans don’t seem to have any answer for him.
Value
Andrew Wiggins has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus along with the second-highest ceiling projection of all small forwards on this slate behind only LeBron. Like most of the Warriors, he had a very up-and-down season. Despite the bumps in the road, he seems to have settled into a large enough role to return value in this matchup with the Kings.
Wiggins scored at least 15 points in each of his four games since returning from a two-game absence due to ankle soreness. In those games, he produced 1.01 DraftKings points per minute in 28.0 minutes per game. Since Wiggins is an established piece of the starting five, he should be lined up for more minutes and usage in this critical contest against the Kings. Getting him under $5,000 is a solid way to have the salary to spend at other spots.
Fast Break
Aside from LeBron and Wiggins, the options are pretty thin at small forward. Trey Murphy and Herbert Jones played well while Ingram was out, but they could get squeezed for playing time now that he’s back. Rui Hachimura showed a nice ceiling but will also likely be in a more limited role as LeBron and AD dominate the usage for the Lakers.
Harrison Barnes is a solid pivot to consider if you want a different and cheaper option than Wiggins. Barnes has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position and scored double-digit points in five of his last six games. He also exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last three games and will have that old “revenge game” narrative rolling against the Warriors.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Even though he’s questionable, Anthony Davis said he will play Tuesday, and coach Darvin Ham said he was “extremely optimistic” that Davis would play even immediately after their blowout win on Sunday. You’ll want to be sure there are no surprises, but assuming he’s active, Davis brings a sky-high ceiling at power forward. He has the highest median and floor projections of all power forwards on the slate and finishes only behind LeBron for ceiling projection. Davis is slightly more expensive than the other LeBron, so his Projected Plus/Minus lags a little behind.
Davis has had an excellent season overall, averaging 1.5 DraftKings points per minute with 27.2% usage. Over the last month, he has maintained that pace, averaging 1.55 DraftKings points per minute with a 28.1% usage rate. He averaged a healthy 47.3 DraftKings points per game in his four games against the Pelicans this season and had 30 points and 11 rebounds before missing the last five minutes of the Lakers’ blowout win on Sunday. As long as his back isn’t slowing him down, it’s hard to see anything else limiting his effectiveness in this matchup.
He matches 13 Pro Trends, which ties him with LeBron and Domantas Sabonis (discussed below) for the most on the slate.
Value
Since the top options at power forward are expensive, the top Projected Plus/Minus at the position comes from Keegan Murray, who has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate. With the Huerter and Monk injuries, Murray has been asked to step up, and the second-year forward has risen to the challenge, which makes him a nice play under $6,000.
Murray has scored double-digit points in 19 straight contests, averaging 16.7 points and 6.2 rebounds in 35.7 minutes per game over that span. In those 19 games, he has a 19.6% usage rate and has produced 0.91 DraftKings points per minute while logging 35.7 minutes per game. He exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his last six contests during the regular season, averaging 0.93 DraftKings points per minute with a 19.8% usage rate.
If you need to spend a little less at power forward, Murray is a great value play that brings a high ceiling and a relatively high floor since he’s in such a substantial role.
Fast Break
Zion Williamson will be squarely in the spotlight as he tries to lead his Pelicans past LeBron and the Lakers. While Ingram has been out, Zion has had more of a workload but didn’t see quite as much of a statistical spike as McCollum did. He only had 12 points in the loss to the Lakers on Sunday, but the Pelicans will need him to go off for a big game if they want to move right into the playoffs without having to play on Friday.
As always, Draymond Green is an extremely volatile enigma. He could go off with a huge game and stuff the stat sheet as an awesome value play, or he could go off in a totally different way and end up producing almost nothing. He does have plenty of upside to be a GPP play, but he also comes with more risk than just about any other starter on the slate.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
All season long, Domantas Sabonis has been putting up ridiculous numbers for the Kings and has regularly starred in my DFS breakdowns. He has been extremely reliable and brings an amazing ceiling since he can stuff the stat sheet in so many ways. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all players on Tuesday’s slate and the top median, ceiling, and floor projections at center.
Sabonis had only one game in his last 65 in which he failed to record at least a double-double. He also fell just one assist short of a triple-double in each of his last two regular season games but still led the league in both double-doubles (77) and triple-doubles (26). He produced 1.48 DraftKings points per minute on the year while logging 35.4 minutes per game and playing all 82 games on the Kings’ schedule. Talk about consistency!
Along with his consistency, he brings a high ceiling with his ability to go off for massive triple-doubles. He had over 50 DraftKings points the last time he faced the Warriors, with 18 points, 13 assists, and eight rebounds in 35 minutes.
Value
While Sabonis and Davis bring great value at the top of the salary structure, Larry Nance Jr. is a solid play if you have to go cheap. Nance will be one of many players in this Pelicans-Lakers matchup facing their former team, and he has been growing into an expanded role for the Pelicans over the last few weeks.
Jonas Valanciunas has been fading a bit and only played seven minutes against the Lakers on Sunday while Nance played 31 minutes and had 28.5 DraftKings points on 13 points, six rebounds, and four assists. Some of that may have been because the game was a blowout, but it also could show that the matchup is a little better for Nance instead of Valanciunas.
Nance also had a big game earlier this month against the Suns and is averaging 0.91 DraftKings points per minute in 22.3 minutes per game in his six contests in April.
Fast Break
Trayce Jackson-Davis has been very good for the Warriors this season, but he could end up in a reduced role if the veterans get more work for the Warriors. TJD did start his last 11 games for Golden State, averaging 1.06 DraftKings points per minute. He’s a solid mid-range target and could be pressed into more or less work depending on which version of Draymond shows up.
Another cheap play with upside to consider is Trey Lyles of the Kings. Lyles missed time in March with a knee sprain but averaged 0.86 DraftKings points per minute in 21.4 minutes per game in his eight games since returning. With his salary under $4,000, he can be a strong punt play at either power forward or center.
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