NBA DFS Picks Breakdown on DraftKings (Thursday, January 30)

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.

Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Become an All-Access Member Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials
 

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

Austin Reaves has been consistently scoring 30+ DraftKings points recently but has shown the upside for even more. With Anthony Davis out for a week, Reaves has a great opportunity to be aggressive offensively. In the three games that Davis has been out this season, Reaves is averaging 24 points on 18.3 field goal attempts per game with a 26.8% usage rate. He’s averaging 17.8 points on 13.3 attempts with a 22.3% usage rate playing alongside Davis, so it represents a significant boost.

LeBron James is also questionable to play with a foot injury. Tonight could be the Reaves solo show against the Wizards, who have the worst defensive rating in the league. If James is ruled out, Reaves has a +13.22% usage rate differential with James and Davis off the floor this season (per our On/Off tool). Pair that with the elite matchup, and Reaves is a major priority on this slate.


Value

Kentucky rookie point guard Rob Dillingham is starting to get regular rotation minutes and has been a valuable player off the bench for the Timberwolves. Over the last seven games where Dillingham has seen playing time, he is averaging 8.4 points, 2.3 assists, and 1.4 rebounds per game while shooting a very efficient 53.3% from the field and 56.3% from downtown. He has three games with double-digit points.

Projected to play around 18 minutes with a 20% usage rate, Dillingham has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate. He has posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his last seven games. Similar to Reaves, the Timberwolves draw a cupcake matchup against the Jazz, who rank 29th in defensive rating. The Timberwolves are implied for 116 points, and Dillingham is a cheap way to get exposure to this offense and team that has won four straight games.


Fast Break

Cavaliers backup point guard Ty Jerome is another value player worth getting exposure to. He has a positive Plus/Minus in 10 of his last 12 games and scored 20 points with seven assists in last night’s victory over the Heat. Even though he will likely come off the bench again, Jerome has the highest projected ownership at the point guard position at 22%. Priced at $4,400, Jerome is a strong value in all formats. Darius Garland is likely back after resting last game, but Jerome is still worth getting exposure to with Caris LeVert out of the lineup.

Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Anthony Edwards is coming off his fourth 30-point game in his last seven contests. He scored 33 points last night and added seven rebounds, five assists, four blocks, and two steals, resulting in nearly 60 DraftKings points. The shooting guard position is relatively weak, and Edwards has the highest projected ceiling at this position by nearly 10 fantasy points.

Edwards has done most of his damage with his perimeter shooting. He is averaging a career-high 4.1 3-pointers made per game, which is tied for the second-highest in the league. He’s also shooting an excellent 41.8% from behind the arc. This matchup against the Jazz sets up perfectly for Edwards to connect from distance. They are allowing a league-high 40.2 3-point attempts per game. Edwards should feast in this matchup.


Value

The Wizards have lost 15 straight games and hold a league-low 6-40 record this season. One positive to a lost season is that the rookies get more valuable playing time. That is the case with rookie guard Carlton Carrington, who is averaging 8.8 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 3.8 assists per game. The best part about this value play is that Carrington still only costs $3,700 and has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus at the shooting guard position. That makes him easy to fit into lineup builds.

The Lakers have a 26-19 record, but they rank 22nd in defensive rating and are allowing opponents to shoot 47.4% from the field. Without Davis in the lineup, the Lakers’ defensive rating drops even further. It will not take much for Carrington to return value at this price point. He is simply too cheap on this small slate.


Fast Break

The best game environment for this five-game slate features the Grizzlies and Rockets. These teams are second and third in the Western Conference standings, and the total for this contest sits at 238 points. The Grizzlies lead the league in pace at 104.74 and are five-point favorites, and their 121.5 implied team total ranks second on the slate. They also could be without Ja Morant, who popped up on the injury report and is questionable to play. If he is ruled out, that would provide a significant boost to Desmond Bane, which would elevate him into stud territory.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

After averaging 56 DraftKings points per game in three consecutive games, Rockets’ forward Amen Thompson posted a dud last game with less than 30 DraftKings points. Expect a bounce-back game from the second-year pro, who has blossomed in his new starting role with Jabari Smith Jr. out of the lineup. Additionally, Alperen Sengun is questionable, and his absence would provide Thompson a further boost.

In his 16 starts this season, Thompson is averaging a double-double with 17.9 points and 10.5 rebounds per game. His usage rate has jumped to 18.4%, and he’s averaging 44 DraftKings points per game. Despite his salary jumping to $8,300, Thompson has displayed a ceiling that is worth getting exposure to and has point guard and small forward eligibility. He has a great opportunity for another double-double, especially if Sengun is ruled out. The matchup may be difficult, but Thompson is playing at an elite level.


Value

Another Timberwolves’ value player to target is Nickeil Alexander-Walker. Priced at $3,400 with guard and forward eligibility, Alexander-Walker is easy to fit into any lineup build. He is coming off a season-high 23 points against the Suns last night. He shot 8-for-14 from the field and 5-for-10 from behind the arc. With Donte DiVincenzo and Naz Reid out, Alexander-Walker’s playing time should be secure.

Alexander-Walker played 35 minutes last night and is projected for a modest 25 minutes tonight. He has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate, with a respectable 22% projected usage rate. Similar to Edwards, Alexander-Walker can take advantage of this matchup with his perimeter shooting. He is shooting a career-best 40.5% from distance and is coming off a season-high five 3-pointers last game.


Fast Break

Since coming back from injury, Franz Wagner has recorded back-to-back big games for the Magic. He is no longer on a minutes restriction after playing 40 in his last outing with a 38.4% usage rate. Before his injury, Wagner was reaching nearly $10,000 in salary. He costs $7,800 on Thursday, making him an excellent value in this matchup against the Trail Blazers.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

The biggest news to monitor on this five-game slate is the status of James. The 40-year-old veteran is questionable with a foot injury. This would be his third game in the last four nights, but with Davis on the shelf for at least a week, James should provide immense value if he’s in the lineup. He has by far the highest projected ceiling on the slate and is currently also drawing a slate-high 45% projected ownership.

With Davis off the floor this season, James has seen a +4.71% usage rate increase. Not only does James have the highest projected ceiling, but he also has the highest projected Plus/Minus and usage rate on the slate. James is a staple in cash games and the starting point in tournaments if he is able to suit up.


Value

Sticking with the Lakers frontcourt, Rui Hachimura is a fantastic value option with Davis sidelined. He has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus at the power forward position behind James and is drawing a little over 15% projected ownership. Hachimura has started all 38 of his games played and is averaging 12.2 points and 5.2 rebounds per game while shooting 49.2% from the field and 40.9% from behind the arc this year.

Hachimura has posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past six outings. During that stretch, he is averaging 14 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 25.1 DraftKings points per game. This matchup against the Wizards’ weak frontcourt also sets up for Hachimura to provide more value than usual on the glass. The Wizards rank 28th in rebounding percentage at 47.9% this season.


Fast Break

The Cavaliers are double-digit home favorites against the Hawks, who have lost six straight games. They still hold the best record in the league at 38-9 and will likely build on that tonight. Despite not leading the team in points or rebounds, Evan Mobley has been a major contributor to the Cavaliers’ success. He is averaging a career-high 18.2 points and 9.1 rebounds per game, and he’s posted a double-double in six of his last eight games. Priced in the mid-range at $7,700, Mobley is the best way to get exposure to the Cavaliers.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Jaren Jackson Jr. could easily find himself in the optimal lineup if the injury situation breaks his way. Morant is questionable, as is opposing center Alperen Sengun. With Morant off the floor this season, Jackson Jr. has seen a team-high +4.51% usage rate increase. His fantasy production has been boom or bust, but Jackson Jr. is a good play that could look even better if Morant and Sengun are unable to play. Keep an eye on their statuses.

Jackson Jr. is averaging a career and team-high 22.8 points per game this season. Despite the Rockets being one of the best interior defenses in the league, Jackson Jr. has found some success in their two previous meetings. In those two games, he is averaging 19 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 3.5 assists while shooting 57.7% from the field. He has added 3.5 blocks per game, boosting his ceiling.


Value

Jonas Valanciunas was well on his way to recording a double-double last night, but the Wizards got blitzed by the Raptors and lost by 24 points. Valanciunas only played 23 minutes but did contribute 11 rebounds and six points. The Wizards are without Alex Sarr again tonight, which does provide a boost to Valanciunas’ production. He currently has the highest projected Plus/Minus at this position.

The Lakers will start center Jaxson Hayes, who does not have the size and strength to deal with Valanciunas in the paint. This is a favorable matchup for the Wizards’ center. Even when the Lakers have Anthony Davis starting, they still rank 28th in points allowed in the paint at 51.2 per game and rank 25th in rebounding percentage. Projected for 26 minutes tonight, Valanciunas is a fantastic play in all formats.


Fast Break

Rudy Gobert is another cheap midrange value center that is worth getting exposure to. This is a revenge matchup for Gobert against the Jazz, who have been a difficult interior defense this season. However, Gobert has posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of his last four games, with two double-doubles during that stretch. His $5,600 price tag is drawing the second-highest projected ownership at the center position. Gobert easily has the ceiling to crush his salary-based expectations, even in a tougher matchup.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.

Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Become an All-Access Member Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials
 

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

Austin Reaves has been consistently scoring 30+ DraftKings points recently but has shown the upside for even more. With Anthony Davis out for a week, Reaves has a great opportunity to be aggressive offensively. In the three games that Davis has been out this season, Reaves is averaging 24 points on 18.3 field goal attempts per game with a 26.8% usage rate. He’s averaging 17.8 points on 13.3 attempts with a 22.3% usage rate playing alongside Davis, so it represents a significant boost.

LeBron James is also questionable to play with a foot injury. Tonight could be the Reaves solo show against the Wizards, who have the worst defensive rating in the league. If James is ruled out, Reaves has a +13.22% usage rate differential with James and Davis off the floor this season (per our On/Off tool). Pair that with the elite matchup, and Reaves is a major priority on this slate.


Value

Kentucky rookie point guard Rob Dillingham is starting to get regular rotation minutes and has been a valuable player off the bench for the Timberwolves. Over the last seven games where Dillingham has seen playing time, he is averaging 8.4 points, 2.3 assists, and 1.4 rebounds per game while shooting a very efficient 53.3% from the field and 56.3% from downtown. He has three games with double-digit points.

Projected to play around 18 minutes with a 20% usage rate, Dillingham has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate. He has posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his last seven games. Similar to Reaves, the Timberwolves draw a cupcake matchup against the Jazz, who rank 29th in defensive rating. The Timberwolves are implied for 116 points, and Dillingham is a cheap way to get exposure to this offense and team that has won four straight games.


Fast Break

Cavaliers backup point guard Ty Jerome is another value player worth getting exposure to. He has a positive Plus/Minus in 10 of his last 12 games and scored 20 points with seven assists in last night’s victory over the Heat. Even though he will likely come off the bench again, Jerome has the highest projected ownership at the point guard position at 22%. Priced at $4,400, Jerome is a strong value in all formats. Darius Garland is likely back after resting last game, but Jerome is still worth getting exposure to with Caris LeVert out of the lineup.

Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Anthony Edwards is coming off his fourth 30-point game in his last seven contests. He scored 33 points last night and added seven rebounds, five assists, four blocks, and two steals, resulting in nearly 60 DraftKings points. The shooting guard position is relatively weak, and Edwards has the highest projected ceiling at this position by nearly 10 fantasy points.

Edwards has done most of his damage with his perimeter shooting. He is averaging a career-high 4.1 3-pointers made per game, which is tied for the second-highest in the league. He’s also shooting an excellent 41.8% from behind the arc. This matchup against the Jazz sets up perfectly for Edwards to connect from distance. They are allowing a league-high 40.2 3-point attempts per game. Edwards should feast in this matchup.


Value

The Wizards have lost 15 straight games and hold a league-low 6-40 record this season. One positive to a lost season is that the rookies get more valuable playing time. That is the case with rookie guard Carlton Carrington, who is averaging 8.8 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 3.8 assists per game. The best part about this value play is that Carrington still only costs $3,700 and has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus at the shooting guard position. That makes him easy to fit into lineup builds.

The Lakers have a 26-19 record, but they rank 22nd in defensive rating and are allowing opponents to shoot 47.4% from the field. Without Davis in the lineup, the Lakers’ defensive rating drops even further. It will not take much for Carrington to return value at this price point. He is simply too cheap on this small slate.


Fast Break

The best game environment for this five-game slate features the Grizzlies and Rockets. These teams are second and third in the Western Conference standings, and the total for this contest sits at 238 points. The Grizzlies lead the league in pace at 104.74 and are five-point favorites, and their 121.5 implied team total ranks second on the slate. They also could be without Ja Morant, who popped up on the injury report and is questionable to play. If he is ruled out, that would provide a significant boost to Desmond Bane, which would elevate him into stud territory.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

After averaging 56 DraftKings points per game in three consecutive games, Rockets’ forward Amen Thompson posted a dud last game with less than 30 DraftKings points. Expect a bounce-back game from the second-year pro, who has blossomed in his new starting role with Jabari Smith Jr. out of the lineup. Additionally, Alperen Sengun is questionable, and his absence would provide Thompson a further boost.

In his 16 starts this season, Thompson is averaging a double-double with 17.9 points and 10.5 rebounds per game. His usage rate has jumped to 18.4%, and he’s averaging 44 DraftKings points per game. Despite his salary jumping to $8,300, Thompson has displayed a ceiling that is worth getting exposure to and has point guard and small forward eligibility. He has a great opportunity for another double-double, especially if Sengun is ruled out. The matchup may be difficult, but Thompson is playing at an elite level.


Value

Another Timberwolves’ value player to target is Nickeil Alexander-Walker. Priced at $3,400 with guard and forward eligibility, Alexander-Walker is easy to fit into any lineup build. He is coming off a season-high 23 points against the Suns last night. He shot 8-for-14 from the field and 5-for-10 from behind the arc. With Donte DiVincenzo and Naz Reid out, Alexander-Walker’s playing time should be secure.

Alexander-Walker played 35 minutes last night and is projected for a modest 25 minutes tonight. He has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate, with a respectable 22% projected usage rate. Similar to Edwards, Alexander-Walker can take advantage of this matchup with his perimeter shooting. He is shooting a career-best 40.5% from distance and is coming off a season-high five 3-pointers last game.


Fast Break

Since coming back from injury, Franz Wagner has recorded back-to-back big games for the Magic. He is no longer on a minutes restriction after playing 40 in his last outing with a 38.4% usage rate. Before his injury, Wagner was reaching nearly $10,000 in salary. He costs $7,800 on Thursday, making him an excellent value in this matchup against the Trail Blazers.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

The biggest news to monitor on this five-game slate is the status of James. The 40-year-old veteran is questionable with a foot injury. This would be his third game in the last four nights, but with Davis on the shelf for at least a week, James should provide immense value if he’s in the lineup. He has by far the highest projected ceiling on the slate and is currently also drawing a slate-high 45% projected ownership.

With Davis off the floor this season, James has seen a +4.71% usage rate increase. Not only does James have the highest projected ceiling, but he also has the highest projected Plus/Minus and usage rate on the slate. James is a staple in cash games and the starting point in tournaments if he is able to suit up.


Value

Sticking with the Lakers frontcourt, Rui Hachimura is a fantastic value option with Davis sidelined. He has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus at the power forward position behind James and is drawing a little over 15% projected ownership. Hachimura has started all 38 of his games played and is averaging 12.2 points and 5.2 rebounds per game while shooting 49.2% from the field and 40.9% from behind the arc this year.

Hachimura has posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past six outings. During that stretch, he is averaging 14 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 25.1 DraftKings points per game. This matchup against the Wizards’ weak frontcourt also sets up for Hachimura to provide more value than usual on the glass. The Wizards rank 28th in rebounding percentage at 47.9% this season.


Fast Break

The Cavaliers are double-digit home favorites against the Hawks, who have lost six straight games. They still hold the best record in the league at 38-9 and will likely build on that tonight. Despite not leading the team in points or rebounds, Evan Mobley has been a major contributor to the Cavaliers’ success. He is averaging a career-high 18.2 points and 9.1 rebounds per game, and he’s posted a double-double in six of his last eight games. Priced in the mid-range at $7,700, Mobley is the best way to get exposure to the Cavaliers.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Jaren Jackson Jr. could easily find himself in the optimal lineup if the injury situation breaks his way. Morant is questionable, as is opposing center Alperen Sengun. With Morant off the floor this season, Jackson Jr. has seen a team-high +4.51% usage rate increase. His fantasy production has been boom or bust, but Jackson Jr. is a good play that could look even better if Morant and Sengun are unable to play. Keep an eye on their statuses.

Jackson Jr. is averaging a career and team-high 22.8 points per game this season. Despite the Rockets being one of the best interior defenses in the league, Jackson Jr. has found some success in their two previous meetings. In those two games, he is averaging 19 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 3.5 assists while shooting 57.7% from the field. He has added 3.5 blocks per game, boosting his ceiling.


Value

Jonas Valanciunas was well on his way to recording a double-double last night, but the Wizards got blitzed by the Raptors and lost by 24 points. Valanciunas only played 23 minutes but did contribute 11 rebounds and six points. The Wizards are without Alex Sarr again tonight, which does provide a boost to Valanciunas’ production. He currently has the highest projected Plus/Minus at this position.

The Lakers will start center Jaxson Hayes, who does not have the size and strength to deal with Valanciunas in the paint. This is a favorable matchup for the Wizards’ center. Even when the Lakers have Anthony Davis starting, they still rank 28th in points allowed in the paint at 51.2 per game and rank 25th in rebounding percentage. Projected for 26 minutes tonight, Valanciunas is a fantastic play in all formats.


Fast Break

Rudy Gobert is another cheap midrange value center that is worth getting exposure to. This is a revenge matchup for Gobert against the Jazz, who have been a difficult interior defense this season. However, Gobert has posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of his last four games, with two double-doubles during that stretch. His $5,600 price tag is drawing the second-highest projected ownership at the center position. Gobert easily has the ceiling to crush his salary-based expectations, even in a tougher matchup.

About the Author

Tyler Schmidt writes NBA, NFL, and MLB content for FantasyLabs and Action Network. He has a degree in Management Information Systems and minor in Computer Science. Tyler has been playing DFS for over a decade and writing content as a freelancer for the past five years. He is a former collegiate basketball player who still holds the Minnesota State High School record for consecutive free throws with 72 that he set in 2009. Schmidt's strong knowledge of the game allows him to take an analytical approach to betting and fantasy sports.