Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Leading all point guards in projected ceiling by double-digit points is MVP front-runner Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The superstar guard ranks second in the league in scoring and third in steals per game, proving to be a dominant force on both ends of the court. Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 31.3 points per game while shooting 52.3% from the field. That is his third year in a row averaging 30+ points per game and shooting well over 50% from the field. That’s insane consistency for a scoring guard in this league.
With Chet Holmgren out due to injury, Gilgeous-Alexander has had to be even better for the Thunder. He is leading the team with a +1.17% usage rate and a +1.48 DraftKings Plus/Minus with Holmgren off the floor this season (per our Trends tool). The Thunder are nearly double-digit favorites looking for their eighth win in a row and their 17th in their last 20 games. Gilgeous-Alexander is a great play in all formats.
Value
Newly acquired Dennis Schroder has been thrust into a starting role for the Warriors but has yet to find his groove. The veteran point guard is averaging less than double-digit points per game for the first time since his rookie season while shooting a career-low 29.7% from the field. Expect those numbers to regress back to his mean, especially playing alongside an offensive friendly system with the Warriors. Schroder may also see increased volume tonight if Stephen Curry, who is listed as questionable, is unable to suit up.
Keep an eye on Curry’s status. Schroder looks like a strong value already but would look even better without Curry. He currently leads all point guards in projected Plus/Minus at his $5,000 price tag, which is the cheapest he has been all season. Projected to play 32 minutes, this is a fantastic opportunity to get exposure to a cheap Schroder. The bounce-back game for Schroder is coming soon. Why not tonight?
Fast Break
The 76ers are playing on a back-to-back, so keep an eye on the status of Joel Embiid. He sat out last game, so expect him to play. However, Kelly Oubre is out, which will provide a boost for Tyrese Maxey. Over his last five games, Maxey has been on a heater. Over that time, he has posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of those five games while averaging 29.4 points, 7.0 assists, 2.8 steals, and 52.1 DraftKings points per game. Drawing less than 15% ownership for this six-game slate, Maxey is a strong contrarian option.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Love him or hate him, Tyler Herro has been playing excellent basketball recently. Despite being thrown to the ground in an altercation against the Rockets, Herro followed that up with a 32-point performance in a victory over the Pelicans. The versatile shooting guard has recorded a points and rebounds or assists double-double in three of his last seven games, with a positive Plus/Minus in five of those last seven.
The juicy matchup against the Pacers separates Herro from the rest of his pricing peers. There are no games with a total above 224 points, but this game does hold a 223.5-point total, which is the second-highest on the slate. The Pacers rank sixth in pace and 23rd in defensive rating. Herro has the highest projected ceiling at the shooting guard position and should have his way against this Pacers defense.
Value
After an abysmal start to the season, Donte DiVincenzo is finally starting to find his shot. He set career-highs across the board last season with the Knicks, but it has taken him a while to get going with the Timberwolves. However, over his last four games, the sharpshooter has connected on 16 of his 34 3-point attempts. DiVincenzo has also captured at least four rebounds and assists in three of his last four games.
The Timberwolves are four-point home underdogs to the reigning champion Celtics tonight. This Celtics defense is not a fun matchup for any opponent, but at least DiVincenzo is playing at home, where his splits have been much better. He is shooting 38.8% from deep and averaging 11.1 points per game at home compared to 32.1% and 8.8 per game on the road. It will not take much for DiVincenzo to exceed his $4,900 price tag. He has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus at the shooting guard position.
Fast Break
Norman Powell had a disappointing last game only accumulating 15 points on 4-for-12 shooting, but it was just his second game with a negative Plus/Minus in his last 11 games. Powell has been red-hot, averaging 29.4 points per game in his previous six contests. Even with the Thunder leading the league in defensive rating at 102.9, expect a bounce back from Powell, who is averaging a team and career-high 24.3 points per game with a 27.4% usage rate. He is still a strong play regardless of the difficult matchup.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Celtics’ star Jayson Tatum is the clearcut top small forward on this six-game slate. No one comes close to his projected ceiling or salary range at this position. Especially with Kristaps Porzingis and Jaylen Brown questionable to play, this could be a smash spot to get Tatum exposure. He is leading the Celtics in points, rebounds, and assists this season while nearly averaging a double-double with 28.3 points and 9.5 rebounds per game. Tatum is the top option for the Celtics, regardless of who is on the floor with him.
The Timberwolves defense is still one of the best in the league, but this comes down to opportunity. At $10,400, Tatum will be overlooked in tournaments if Porzingis and Brown suit up. However, if they are both out, Tatum will turn into one of the best options on the slate. Without Porzingis and Brown on the floor this season, Tatum is averaging a +5.95% usage rate increase and a +3.81 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Value
Staying in the same game environment, Jaden McDaniels is one of the better value plays available at his cheap $4,100 salary. The Timberwolves will need to give him ample playing time to compete defensively against the juggernaut Celtics’ perimeter weapons. McDaniels is a boom-or-bust fantasy producer, but he has posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his last 10 games, averaging 25 DraftKings points per game.
McDaniels is a streaky shooter, but his peripherals have increased this season. With the departure of Karl-Anthony Towns, McDaniels has had to be a much better rebounder. He is averaging a career-high 4.6 rebounds per game and has posted two points and rebounds double-doubles this season. Priced at $4,100, McDaniels is a cheap way to get exposure to this showdown and is a good value in all formats.
Fast Break
Paul George is coming off one of his best games of the season, scoring 30 points on 11-for-20 from the field and 4-for-7 from behind the arc. He also contributed eight rebounds and five assists in the 76ers narrow loss last night. With Oubre out of the lineup, George receives a significant boost with a +3.37% usage rate increase. That will increase if Embiid is also unable to suit up. George’s $7,000 salary is the cheapest he has been all season, making this a great opportunity to target him in the mid-range tonight.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo leads this six-game slate in projected ceiling, which should not be a surprise. The Greek Freak is leading the entire league with a career-high 32.6 points per game while shooting 61% from the field. Even at his $11,400 price tag, Giannis has an untouchable ceiling. In his 25 games played this season, Giannis has four triple-doubles and 18 double-doubles. He is the best pay-up option tonight.
What sets Giannis apart even more is this cupcake matchup against the Nets. These two teams are going in opposite directions, with the Nets losing 11 of their last 14 games and the Bucks winning 14 of their last 19. The Bucks are a slate-high 14-point home favorites, implied for 116.25 points. The Nets rank 25th in defensive rating and 28th in rebounding percentage at 48.0%. Do not get cute; just play the Greek Freak.
Value
In his first season with the Trail Blazers, Deni Avdija has been a valuable asset to the team. Recently, he has posted four-straight games with a positive Plus/Minus. During that stretch, Avdija is stuffing the stat sheet, averaging 21 points, 6.5 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 35.9 DraftKings points per game while shooting 56.5% from the field. He has one 50-DraftKings point game over that time, which displays his ceiling.
At a mid-range $5,700 price tag, Avdija has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate behind two cheap value centers that we will get to. He is also one of two players on this six-game slate with a projected ownership above 30%. He is a staple in cash games and an incredible value in tournaments in this matchup against the Lakers who rank 22nd in defensive rating and 25th in rebounding percentage.
Fast Break
Opposite of Avdija is LeBron James, who is drawing a ton of ownership at the top pricing tier. Priced just below $10,000, James will be the most popular pay-up option, especially if Anthony Davis, who is questionable, is unable to suit up. Since returning to action, James has been a boom-or-bust fantasy producer. He has three games averaging nearly 60 DraftKings points per game and three averaging 40 DraftKings points. The matchup is clearly elite, with the Trail Blazers ranking 28th in defensive rating.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Being expected to play, it is difficult not to get overweight to Joel Embiid at his $9,400 price tag. When Embiid picks his spot to play, he is getting heavy minutes and dominating. In his last two games against the Jazz and Trail Blazers, Embiid is averaging 34.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game with four steals, three blocks, and a 39.1% usage rate. If he plays, make it a priority to get overweight.
Embiid has only played in 11 games this season but has five games where he exceeded 30+ points. His usage rate is always sky-high when he is on the court. The Warriors have been a strong defensive unit but will be put to the test against Embiid in this matchup. Projected to play 32 minutes tonight with a slate-high 35.5% usage rate, Embiid is simply too cheap at $9,400. He is a phenomenal play in all lineup builds.
Value
Leading the slate in projected Plus/Minus is Warriors center Trayce Jackson-Davis. It is difficult to imagine him guarding Embiid, but he will likely get help in that area from Draymond Green. However, Jackson-Davis is starting to blossom in his last six games. During that stretch, he is averaging a double-double with 14.3 points and 10.2 rebounds per game. He has posted a double-double in back-to-back games.
Still priced under $5,000, Jackson-Davis is the best value play of the day with his slate-high 37% projected ownership. He has posted a positive Plus/Minus in eight consecutive games, including double-digit positives in six straight. Jackson-Davis also has double-digit field goal attempts in each of his last three games with a 22.1% usage rate. He is a staple in cash games and an incredible value play in tournaments.
Fast Break
The second value center to get exposure to is Nets’ big man Day’Ron Sharpe. With so many injuries to the Nets, Sharpe has had to step up. He will likely play a little less than 20 minutes, but Sharpe is very active when he is on the floor. In his 17 minutes per night the past two games, Sharpe has averaged 9.5 points and 7.5 rebounds per game while shooting 60% from the field. Sharpe has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate behind Jackson-Davis but is drawing less than half of the ownership.
