Thursday features a six-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Stud
Luka Doncic and the Lakers will square off with the Warriors in a very important matchup on Thursday. The Lakers and Nuggets are currently tied for the third-best record in the West, while the Warriors are 2.0 games back in fifth. Getting the No. 3 seed – and avoiding the Thunder until the Western Conference Finals – is definitely worth playing for.
Doncic has not been at his best for fantasy purposes of late, posting a negative Plus/Minus in seven straight games. However, finding value is never really an issue in late-season NBA DFS. You can sacrifice some value for upside with your top studs, and Doncic is near the top of the leaderboard in that department. He has the second-highest ceiling projection on the slate, and he’s scored at least 53.5 DraftKings points in 10 of his past 11 games. Doncic also leads all players with 38 projected minutes on Thursday, which is enough to make him a viable tournament option.
Value
Damian Lillard remains out of the lineup for the Bucks, which means Ryan Rollins should earn another start at point guard. He’s thrived in that role recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games. That includes two performances of at least 31.75 DraftKings points in his last three, highlighted by 42.25 DraftKings points in his last outing.
Overall, Rollins has averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s projected for another 28 minutes Thursday vs. the 76ers. It’s a phenomenal matchup, with the 76ers ranking dead last in defensive efficiency over the past 15 games. Rollins boasts one of the top Opponent Plus/Minuses at the position, while the Bucks’ 119.75 implied team total is the top mark on the slate by five full points.
Fast Break
Jamal Shead is another excellent value option at the position. He’s been extremely productive recently, averaging 1.04 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s had at least 30.0 DraftKings points in four of his past six games. The exceptions were two games where he played less than 20 minutes, which shouldn’t be an issue on Thursday. The Raptors will give Immanuel Quickley and Jakob Poeltl the night off, which should leave plenty of opportunities for Shead.
Don’t forget about Davion Mitchell. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in nine straight games for the Heat, and he’s had at least 29.25 DraftKings points in six of them. He’s not quite as productive on a per-minute basis as guys like Rollins and Shead, but he makes up for it with his volume. Mitchell is projected for 32 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.39 (per the Trends tool).
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Shaedon Sharpe erupted for the shorthanded Blazers on Tuesday. They were playing without Anfernee Simons, Scoot Henderson, and Jerami Grant, and Sharpe responded with one of his best games of the season. He finished with 33 points and 10 rebounds across nearly 39 minutes, resulting in 56.0 DraftKings points.
It’s possible that the Blazers are shorthanded once again vs. the Raptors. Henderson remains out of the lineup, while Grant is listed as doubtful. Simons has been upgraded to questionable, but with nothing to play for, it wouldn’t be a huge shock if he’s given another game to heal up.
If that’s the case, Sharpe would be a prime option at shooting guard. He’s increased his usage rate by +2.09% with Simons, Henderson, and Grant off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.02 DraftKings points per minute. He could also approach 40 minutes for the second straight game, making him too cheap at $7,100.
Value
Ja’Kobe Walter is another prime source of value for the shorthanded Raptors. He’s averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and his minutes have slowly trended upward. He’s logged at least 27.5 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s scored at least 31.5 DraftKings points in both. Walter is projected for 31 minutes vs. the Blazers, which should be more than enough to pay off his $4,200 salary.
Fast Break
The Nets are another team with plenty of injuries at the moment. They are expected to have D’Angelo Russell in the lineup on Thursday, but most of their other top offensive threats are out of the lineup. That leaves plenty of opportunities for Keon Johnson. He’s played at least 28.5 minutes in two straight games, and he’s scored 34.25 and 28.0 DraftKings points in those outings. Despite his recent production, his salary has actually decreased to $5,300 for his matchup vs. the Timberwolves.
Tyrese Martin is also in play for Brooklyn. He’s averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s scored at least 29.5 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. His minutes aren’t quite as secure as Johnson’s, but his lower salary mitigates some of that risk. He should also check in with far lower ownership; he’s currently projected at just 3.6%.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Deni Avdija has been one of the breakout stars of the second half of the NBA season. He’s now posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven straight games, and he’s displayed immense upside during that stretch. He has at least 64.0 DraftKings points in three of those outings, highlighted by a 32-point triple-double in his last contest. Overall, he’s averaged 1.38 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is easily the top mark at the position.
Avdija would become even more appealing if Simons is out for the second straight game. The matchup vs. the Raptors isn’t ideal – they’re second in defensive efficiency over their past 15 games – but Avdija still provides elite upside at a sub-$9k price tag.
Value
Unlike some of his teammates, Jamison Battle has not been a particularly strong fantasy producer when on the floor this season. He’s averaged just 0.69 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he had 20 DraftKings points in more than 30 minutes in his last outing.
Still, that was enough to pay off his modest price tag, and Battle should see plenty of volume again on Thursday. He’s currently projected for 29 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.70. He doesn’t offer a ton of ceiling, but he’s a good bet to return value at just $3,700.
Fast Break
Jalen Wilson stands out as underpriced for the Nets on DraftKings, where his $3,700 salary comes with an 82% Bargain Rating. Wilson has scored at least 23.75 DraftKings points in three straight games, and he’s averaged 0.81 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He could approach 30 minutes for the shorthanded Nets on Thursday, so he’s another solid value target.
Kyle Kuzma has struggled to acclimate to life in Milwaukee, but his production is trending upward. He’s scored more than 31 DraftKings points in two of his past three games, and he should continue to see a few additional shot attempts with Lillard out of the lineup. He’s seen a +3.64% usage bump with Lillard off the floor this season, and he’s seen a +3.31% usage bump in nine full games without his star teammate.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Paolo Banchero has spent most of the season in a 1A/1B situation with Franz Wagner. However, he’s started to establish his dominance in the pecking order recently. He’s posted a massive 37.0% usage rate over his past seven outings, and he’s been at 36.5% or higher in six of those contests.
If he keeps that level up on Thursday, he has massive upside vs. the Wizards. Washington has been one of the best matchups in fantasy all season, ranking fourth in pace and 28th in defensive efficiency. No team has allowed more points per game, and the Magic are implied for 114.5 points in this matchup. That represents a massive increase from Orlando’s average of just 105.0 points per game for the year.
Banchero ultimately leads the position with 11 Pro Trends, and he ranks third on the slate in ceiling projection. He trails only Doncic and Giannis Antetokounmpo, both of whom are significantly more expensive.
Value
Jonathan Mogbo is a viable option in the Raptors’ frontcourt with Poeltl getting the night off. He’s averaged a solid 0.90 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games. He’s played mid-20s minutes in most of those contests, but he got to 31.4 in the team’s last outing. Mogbo isn’t likely to see that much playing time again on Thursday, but it’s nice to know that it’s within his range of outcomes.
Fast Break
Kyle Anderson was sent to Miami as part of the Jimmy Butler trade, but he played sparingly upon his arrival in Miami. However, he’s seen an uptick in minutes recently. He’s logged at least 20 minutes in four of his past five outings, including at least 23.8 minutes in two straight. Anderson has always been an excellent per-minute producer, so he’s capable of making the most of that workload. He’s averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and his $3,600 salary comes with an 88% Bargain Rating.
Santi Aldama has logged at least 30 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s projected for another 30 minutes on Thursday. The Grizzlies’ frontcourt has gotten a bit thinner recently, and Aldama has been a clear beneficiary. He’s averaged well over a fantasy point per minute this season, so he’s underpriced at $5,500 if he’s going to continue to play that much.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Antetokounmpo is the clear top pay-up option on Thursday. He checks all the boxes. He’s already one of the best producers in fantasy, averaging a massive 1.67 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s currently playing without his top teammate, which gives him even more upside than usual. The matchup vs. the 76ers is absolutely elite, and the Bucks are still playing for playoff seeding in the Eastern Conference.
The only real downside with Antetokounmpo is his price tag, but that’s not nearly as big of an issue as it would be at the start of the year. There are countless sources of savings on this slate, so shelling out $12,100 for Giannis’ elite ceiling is very doable.
Value
Zach Edey is another beneficiary of the Grizzlies’ shortened rotation. He’s coming off 32.4 minutes in his last outing, the first time in his NBA career where he’s cracked the 30-minute threshold. He responded with 40.0 DraftKings points, and that’s no real shocker. Edey has been a phenomenal per-minute producer as a rookie, but he’s been capped at around 20 minutes per game for most of the year.
Edey is projected for 27 minutes on Thursday, and if he’s going to continue to play that much, he’s a massive steal at just $4,500. There’s always the potential for a clunker – he had just 12.8 minutes and 8.5 DraftKings points two games ago – but he will almost certainly return value if he plays as much as expected. He owns the top projected Plus/Minus at the position, and he’s one of the best pure values on the slate.
Fast Break
Orlando Robinson is the final target in the Raptors’ frontcourt. He’s not expected to play as much as Mogbo – he’s currently projected for 22 minutes – but he makes up for it with superior per-minute production. He’s averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s displayed a ceiling of more than 45 DraftKings points in less than 25 minutes of court time.
I’m not sure what Tristan Vukcevic has to do to get priced up on DraftKings. All he’s done is return value recently, and he poured in another 34.0 DraftKings points in his last outing. He’s averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he’s capable of racking up fantasy points very quickly.
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