What a Sunday we have in store! Not only is today the last round of the PGA Championship, but we also have the two best words in sports – Game 7. The best part is we have two Game 7s. Leading us off is the Knicks hosting the Pacers at 3:30pm ET, when the slate locks. The night cap is the Nuggets versus the Timberwolves, with the winner having home-court advantage in the Western Conference Finals.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
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NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Currently second in projected ceiling is Knicks point guard Jalen Brunson. He has proved this postseason that the Knicks have a star and 1A option. Brunson has the highest usage rate in the playoffs at 36.7% while averaging a league-high 33.7 points per game. He has attempted 26.9 field goals per game, which immediately puts him in the conversation for the best play on the slate. Playing at home for a chance to go to the Eastern Conference Finals, it is not surprising that Brunson is projected for over 50% ownership.
The Knicks are 3.5-point home favorites against the Pacers, implied for a slate-high 106 points. Expect Brunson to be highly involved in the Knicks’ offense yet again. With a $9,500 salary, Brunson has a 91% Bargain Rating and is tied for a slate-high 11 Pro Trends. Given the ceiling, usage rate, and relatively cheap price tag, it is impossible not to load up on so much Brunson exposure Sunday.
Value
Brunson leads the slate with the highest projected Plus/Minus, but Pacers combo guard Andrew Nembhard is not far behind. Nembhard has point-guard and shooting-guard eligibility and is coming off his best game of the series. In Game 6, Nembhard stuffed the stat sheet with 15 points, six assists, and six rebounds, while shooting 6-for-12 from the field, including 3-for-4 from behind the arc. He finished with a playoff-high 35 DraftKings points and a near +15 DraftKings Plus/Minus to lift the Pacers to victory.
Similar to Brunson, Nembhard is also projected to draw over 50% ownership on this two-game slate. He will start and play around 32 minutes, which is more than enough time to pay off his $4,400 price tag. The Pacers are a live underdog in this spot due to all of the Knicks’ injuries. Nembhard is a cheap way to get exposure to a Pacers offense that ranked second in the league in pace at 102.16 per game.
Fast Break
Jamal Murray has been questionable all series long with a calf strain and then hurt his elbow in Game 6. That very possibly led to Murray’s 4-for-18 shooting performance and the Nuggets getting blitzed by the Timberwolves. Murray has had a few awful games in this series, but one thing we know is certain is that he is going to keep firing. Murray is projected to have a 28% usage rate and is reasonably priced at $7,500. The defending champs will need his scoring production to advance to the Western Conference Finals.
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NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
The emergence of Anthony Edwards has been incredible to watch this postseason. The All-Star shooting guard has helped the Timberwolves force a winner-take-all Game 7 in Denver on Sunday. Edwards had a game-high 27 points in the Game 6 victory despite playing a series-low 34 minutes due to the 45-point blowout. He ranks third on the slate in projected ceiling, and his shooting-guard and small-forward eligibility makes him easy to fit into all lineup builds. Edwards is the Timberwolves player to target.
The Timberwolves may be five-point road underdogs, implied for a slate-low 97 points, but that has shown to mean nothing in this series. Each team has won handily on the road already, and the winning team has averaged a 21.3-point-per-game winning margin. Edwards is projected to play the most minutes on this slate and will come out swinging in Game 7. He is an elite pay-up option Sunday.
Value
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is a steady value option who can get scorching hot from the perimeter. After only making three 3-pointers in the first four games of this series, Caldwell-Pope buried six combined 3-pointers in his last two games, including shooting 4-for-5 in the Nuggets’ last home game. The perimeter is where the Timberwolves can be beaten in this matchup, especially when they are glued in to stopping Jamal Murray. Caldwell-Pope is currently projected for the second-highest ownership on the slate at 56%.
With a $4,100 salary, Caldwell-Pope has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus at the shooting guard position behind aforementioned Nembhard. He is going to start and play around 37 minutes. His defense will be critical in stopping Anthony Edwards, but Caldwell-Pope is also active offensively. He is more than just a scorer, having shown the ability to rack up rebounds and assists as well.
Fast Break
Mike Conley is back, but Nickeil Alexander-Walker has still displayed an upside even playing alongside Conley. The five-year pro has made at least three 3-pointers in three of the six games in this series, including in each of the last two. Most of Alexander-Walker’s production comes from scoring the ball, which makes him a little more risky of a value play. However, his ceiling has already proven that it can blow away his $3,800 salary in this matchup. He is a sneaky cheap value play.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
The biggest news on the entire slate is the status of Josh Hart and OG Anunoby. Hart was visibly injured last game and “only” played 31 minutes. In the first two games of this series, Hart played every minute. He has been incredible for the Knicks on this playoff run, so if he is a full go, he needs to be considered in all lineup builds. When healthy, Hart has seemingly posted a double-double at will. It helps that the Pacers have one of the league’s worst rebounding percentages at 49.2% this season.
A big reason for Hart’s recent surge in production has been the absence of Anunoby, who left Game 2 with an injury. He has been upgraded to questionable for Sunday’s action. We are lucky that the Knicks play the early game, so we will get news on both Hart and Anunoby before the slate locks. Prioritize Hart if he is good to go, because he has the highest projected ceiling at the small forward position Sunday.
Value
Aaron Nesmith is another role player worth getting exposure to on this two-game slate. With shooting-guard and small-forward eligibility, Nesmith is on the floor mainly for his defense and occasional ability to knock down perimeter jump shots. He also has helped the Pacers be a more respectable rebounding team in the playoffs with at least six rebounds in four of the six games of this series, including one game hauling down 12 rebounds. Nesmith will use up his fouls, but he’ll still play a healthy amount of minutes.
Nesmith has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus at the small forward position behind Anthony Edwards and is projected for the most ownership at this position. Playing 33 minutes at $4,700 makes Nesmith a candidate to be the best value on the slate. It helps that this is the cheapest he has been in any game of this series. Nesmith is a consistent fantasy producer worth targeting in cash-game contests.
Fast Break
Pascal Siakam‘s salary has slowly come down, and coincidentally he is coming off his best game of the series after posting 25 points, seven rebounds, five assists, and two blocks in the Game 6 victory. His usage rate in that game skyrocketed to 38.8%, which makes him an enticing play for Game 7. Similar to the regular season, Siakam has led the Pacers in points and rebounds during the playoffs. Scoring 22-plus points in three of his last four games, expect an aggressive Siakam with the Pacers’ season on the line Sunday.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
With power-forward and center eligibility, Karl-Anthony Towns has the highest projected ceiling at this position Sunday. Towns has had a rollercoaster series with plenty of highs and lows. Most of his outlook comes down to whether he can stay out of foul trouble. He is a mismatch against any team due to his elite offensive skill set, so he needs to stay on the floor for the Timberwolves to win this game. Towns has posted a double-double in three of his last five games and can easily pop into the optimal lineup.
Priced at $7,200, Towns has 10 Pro Trends and is projected to be the highest-owned player on the slate. Towns’ last two games in Denver have been his best two games of this series. In those two contests, he averaged 25 points, nine rebounds, and 46 DraftKings points per game while shooting 58.9% from the field and 50% from downtown. The sharpshooting big man is an incredible play in all formats.
Value
After back-to-back games with a negative Plus/Minus, Obi Toppin‘s salary has dipped below $4,000 for the first time all series. Toppin has been a steady bench player for the Pacers. Despite his projection to play only 19 minutes, Toppin is an active fantasy producer. During this postseason, Toppin is averaging double-digit points and shooting 53.9% from the field. He also has posted a 21.2% usage rate. In this series against the Knicks alone, Toppin is shooting 60.5% from the field and 46.7% from distance.
Toppin has had some big games against his former team, especially in Madison Square Garden. His energy and determination to attack the rim put a ton of pressure on the Knicks’ defense. Toppin can also make 3-pointers at an impressive clip. He can score in a variety of ways and will be needed off the bench in order for the Pacers to have success. Toppin is simply too cheap at his $3,900 salary.
Fast Break
Aaron Gordon has posted a positive Plus/Minus in three-straight games for the Nuggets. He is one of several players who has increased his production during the postseason. Gordon is averaging more points, rebounds, assists and is shooting better in the playoffs compared to the regular season. Gordon will play around 37 minutes and be a strong mid-range play at $6,300. His salary is resulting in a 81% Bargain Rating. Gordon is playing too well recently to only be at this price point.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Leading our Player model with the highest projected ceiling is none other than three-time MVP Nikola Jokic. He has posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of the six games in this series, averaging 66 DraftKings points per game in those four contests. Jokic comes into Sunday with half the ownership of Jalen Brunson but the same amount of Pro Trends, and his $11,300 salary is resulting in a 94% Bargain Rating. No one can touch the ceiling of Jokic on this two-game slate, making him a strong contrarian pay-up option.
The Timberwolves will likely mix up their defensive coverage on Jokic. However, when the Joker gets cooking, he is impossible to defend. Jokic is projected for a 32% usage rate and will have his hands on nearly every Nuggets possession tonight. There is plenty of value to feel comfortable fitting Jokic into multiple lineup builds. Even being the only player priced over $9,500, Jokic is an incredible play Sunday.
Value
Outside of Game 3, Rudy Gobert‘s production has been solid in this series. He has gotten cooked several times defensively on Jokic, but who doesn’t. If Gobert continues to grab double-digit rebounds and finish at the rim and the free-throw line, he will easily pay off his mid-range $6,400 price tag. Gobert has the fourth-highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate, and his salary is resulting in a 91% Bargain Rating. He is another important piece to the Timberwolves’ success Sunday, especially defensively.
Gobert has the second-best odds on the entire slate at even-money to record a double-double tonight. He accomplished the feat twice in already in this series in Games 4 and 5, while coming up two points short in Game 6. If he can record a double-double at $6,400, that will go a long way towards being in the optimal lineup. He will likely flirt with foul trouble, but this is a great spot to deploy Gobert.
Fast Break
The last spot is up for grabs between Isaiah Hartenstein and Myles Turner. It is recommended to spread your exposure around to both of these centers playing against each other. Their price point is the same, and they are both projected for around 40% ownership. Hartenstein is projected to play a little more than Turner, but that may change if both Hart and Anunoby are healthy. There is plenty to love about both players in this matchup. Make sure to monitor our Player model for the best play right before tip.
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