Similar to the Friday NBA slate, Sunday features Game 4s for both the Knicks and Pacers and the Nuggets and Timberwolves. These two series could end up even Sunday night, or the Knicks and Timberwolves could take a commanding 3-1 series lead. The Knicks and Pacers will get us started at 3:30pm ET, followed by the Timberwolves and Nuggets at 8pm ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
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NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Friday night was a game to forget for Jalen Brunson, who needed 26 field-goal attempts to reach 26 total points. He shot an abysmal 10-for-26 from the field and failed to record a rebound for the second time all season. Looking to bounce back in Game 4, Brunson at least continues to have a massive usage rate. In his nine playoff games, Brunson has a 38.5% usage rate. Even when his shot is not falling, Brunson will still put up relevant fantasy points. When his shot is falling, that is when the ceiling games occur.
More pressure will be put on Brunson once again Sunday with OG Anunoby still out with a hamstring injury. Brunson has the highest projected usage rate and the highest projected Plus/Minus on this two-game slate. He is the most popular pay-up option despite having back-to-back mediocre performances. Brunson will continue to shoot his way out of this mini-slump in Game 4 tonight.
Value
TJ McConnell leads the slate with the highest projected ownership at over 60%. After three consecutive games scoring double-digit points and averaging 35.75 DraftKings points, McConnell put up a dud in Game 3 with only six points on 3-for-10 shooting. Looking to get back on track, McConnell is projected to play around 23 minutes and be a valuable asset off the Pacers’ bench.
McConnell had the best regular season of his career, averaging a career-best 10.2 points per game while shooting 55.6% from the field and 40.9% from behind the arc. The Pacers led the league in scoring, so it should not be a surprise that they have the highest team total on the slate at 112 points. Through the first three games, the total has averaged to be 235.3 points. Expect another barnburner tonight due to the Knicks’ injuries and the Pacers wanting to push the tempo on every single possession.
Fast Break
After an extremely poor Game 2, Jamal Murray and the Nuggets bounced back to win Game 3. Murray was in his bag last game, stuffing the stat sheet with 24 points, five assists, four rebounds, and three steals. He shot 11-for-21 from the field and posted a series-high 31.8% usage rate. Priced at $7,500 and coming off a great game, Murray is a fantastic mid-range option as the Nuggets look to steal another road game and tie this series going back to Denver.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Anthony Edwards, being the leader that he is, took all of the blame in Game 3 due to his lack of energy. He still finished with 19 points, six rebounds, and five assists, but that was certainly not enough to pay off his price tag. After his 43-point outburst in Game 1, Edwards has been relatively disappointing in his last two games. However, his salary of $9,200 is resulting in a 91% Bargain Rating, and Edwards has displayed the ability to have ceiling performances, even against this Nuggets defense.
The Timberwolves are 2.5-point home favorites and have an opportunity to take a 3-1 series lead on the defending champions. Projected to play over 40 minutes and have a usage rate north of 32%, getting exposure to Edwards is a necessity. He is projected for around 30% ownership, but given the magnitude of Game 4, Edwards could easily find his way into the optimal lineup Sunday.
Value
Make sure to keep an eye on the status of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who is questionable for Game 4. He was able to play through the injury last game and finished with a respectable 23 DraftKings points. Caldwell-Pope recorded 12 points, four rebounds, and four assists despite failing to make a 3-pointer in back-to-back games for the first time since the middle of January. The Nuggets’ shooting guard will continue to have a low usage rate, but it does not take much for him to return value at his $4,400 salary.
With Caldwell-Pope’s 36-minute projection, he is one of the better values on this two-game slate. He is a cheap way to get exposure to this Nuggets team that will likely be playing in desperation mode again tonight. Caldwell-Pope is projected to draw over 30% ownership, and his shooting guard and small forward eligibility is easy to fit into all lineup builds Sunday.
Fast Break
Leading the shooting guard position in ownership and projected Plus/Minus is Knicks sharpshooter Donte DiVincenzo. He led the Knicks with 35 points last game while shooting 12-for-26 from the field and 7-for-11 from behind the arc. It was the fourth-straight game that DiVincenzo has scored 23 or more points and recorded at least five made 3-pointers. In the regular season, the Pacers defended the 3-point shot well, but DiVincenzo has been able to find a ton of success from distance in this series.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Josh Hart has continued to shine in his role with the Knicks. He finally sat out for a few minutes last game, but that did not deter the fact that Hart still recorded a double-double with 10 points and a playoff-high 18 rebounds. It is hard to see Hart failing at this point due to how well he has played, the great matchup against the Pacers, and the fact that OG Anunoby is still out due to injury. Hart has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in four-straight games while averaging 17.3 points and 15 rebounds per game.
Hart has proven to be one of the best rebounding forwards in the entire league, if not the best. He is tenacious on both the offensive and defensive glass. That bodes well for this matchup against the Pacers, who were 24th in rebounding percentage at 49.2% during the regular season. A double-double at this point feels inevitable for Hart, and he could flirt with a triple-double with no Anunoby.
Value
Jaden McDaniels scored double-digit points in Game 3 for the first time in this series. He still failed to record a positive Plus/Minus, but McDaniels is also having a difficult time staying out of foul trouble. If he can stop hacking, McDaniels will play heavy minutes like he did in Game 1. His defense is desperately needed on Jamal Murray, who was cooking last game. At $4,200, McDaniels has the second-highest projected ownership behind DiVincenzo with small-forward eligibility.
Throughout the season, McDaniels has shot much better at home than on the road, especially from long distance. He shot 49.7% from the field and 38.9% from behind the arc at home compared to 48.2% from the field and 28.2% from deep on the road. Any little positive matters, especially when it comes to scoring for McDaniels. Stay out of foul trouble and cause havoc on defense while accumulating fantasy points.
Fast Break
Michael Porter Jr. got back to his scoring ways with 21 points in Game 3 while shooting 6-for-10 from the field and a near perfect 4-for-5 from downtown. His playing time was cut to 30 minutes due to also getting into foul trouble. Porter Jr. had averaged 41.3 minutes per game in his four previous games. With a near 40-minute projection Sunday, Porter Jr. has a great opportunity to score 20+ points for the seventh time in his last eight playoff games. He is another strong mid-range value option.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Karl-Anthony Towns had a hot start to Game 3, but then he fizzled out with the Nuggets clamping down defensively on the versatile big man. Towns still finished with 14 points, but he shot the ball seven times including only two shots inside the paint. That is not going to be enough from the Timberwolves’ second-best player. Towns will need to stay aggressive and get more looks for the Timberwolves to take a commanding 3-1 series lead. His projected ownership of 45% suggests that he does that Sunday.
With power-forward and center eligibility, Towns is easy to fit into all lineup builds. His $6,900 salary feels like a joke given his 94% Bargain Rating. Through three games in this series, Towns is shooting an absurd 62.9% from the field and 64.3% from long distance. The Nuggets simply do not have an answer for Towns. He has boom-or-bust tendencies, but this is an incredible spot for a bounceback game from Towns.
Value
Sixth Man of the Year Naz Reid also had a poor Game 3 with a series-low seven points. He shot 2-for-7 from the field and only pulled down one rebound. It is hard to envision that type of showing again Sunday after how dominant Reid was off the bench in the first two games. Reid is a much cheaper way to get exposure to the Timberwolves’ frontcourt, with a high ceiling. The size and skill set Reid possess causes mismatches all over the floor. He can score the ball in a multitude of ways.
In the first two games of this Nuggets series, Reid averaged 15 points and 4.5 rebounds per game with a 27.2% usage rate. If he can get back to that type of performance, Reid is easily going to pay off his $4,600 salary. The upside and the fact that Reid is only projected for 25% ownership make him a phenomenal value play. Scoring double-digit points will likely be enough to pay off his salary Sunday.
Fast Break
Pascal Siakam has the highest projected ceiling at the power forward position for this two-game slate. He greatly benefitted from the absence of OG Anunoby last game, scoring 26 points and shooting 9-for-14 from the field despite getting into foul trouble. Siakam also hauled down seven rebounds. He has to be a monster on the glass, being the best rebounder on the Pacers right now. Siakam will flirt with a double-double and has a ceiling at his $7,700 price tag. He is one of the best plays on the slate.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Nikola Jokic‘s salary did not budge from Game 3 even though he had by far his best game of the series. Jokic had a near triple-double with 24 points, 14 rebounds, nine assists, three steals, and three blocks. The likely MVP will need to have another huge performance to get this series all tied up. Similar to the Friday slate, most DFS players are choosing to go to a balanced build and avoid Jokic. He is only projected for 22% ownership, which is hard to believe given that he has by far the highest ceiling in our Player model.
Jokic also leads the slate with 13 Pro Trends and his $11,200 salary is resulting in a 96% Bargain Rating. Despite the Timberwolves getting Rudy Gobert back last game, Jokic had no trouble stuffing the stat sheet. If he is going to be this great of a contrarian option, consider getting double of the exposure in tournaments. The Nuggets will continue to rely on Jokic on every possession.
Value
Despite playing 39 minutes for the second-straight game, Isaiah Hartenstein finally failed to record a positive Plus/Minus last game. Hartenstein finished with six points, eight rebounds, and five assists, but he only shot the ball four times. It was his first game of his last four where Hartenstein did not score 13 or more points. Even with that lackluster performance, Hartenstein is still projected for nearly 50% ownership and has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate behind Jokic and Brunson.
Not only are the Pacers an awful rebounding team, but they struggle defending the paint in general. During the regular season, they allowed the second-most points in the paint at 57.6 per game. Their up-tempo style of play leads to very poor interior defense. Hartenstein can take advantage of this matchup. He recorded a double-double in Game 2 and could get back on track with another one Sunday.
Fast Break
Rudy Gobert did not get the “baby bump” in Game 3, recording only six points and four rebounds. He finished with 12.5 DraftKings points, which was his lowest output all season. That is a big reason why Gobert is drawing less than 25% projected ownership in Sunday’s game. The Nuggets were not a great paint-defending team this season, allowing 50.6 points per game. Jokic has no interest in paint defense. Gobert could be a sneaky mid-range option with massive double-double upside.
