Sunday features a six-game main slate starting at 6 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Stud
Nikola Jokic remains out of the lineup for the Nuggets, which means Russell Westbrook should continue to see a spike in production. He remains an extremely ineffective shooter, but that doesn’t stop him from putting up big fantasy totals. He’s averaged 1.15 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he’s increased that figure to 1.21 with Jokic off the floor.
Westbrook hasn’t been great in his past two games without Jokic, but he’s been limited to less than 30 minutes in both contests. He’s projected for 33 minutes Sunday vs. the Rockets, so he should play a bit more if this game stays competitive.
Value
The Spurs are simply playing out the string at this point. They’re not in a position to make a run at a spot in the play-in tournament, so they’re not particularly interested in pushing Chris Paul. He’s played 26.2 minutes or fewer in two of his past three games, and there’s no reason to expect anything different vs. the Raptors.
That said, Paul doesn’t need more than 26 minutes to return value at his current salary. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games, and he’s had at least 31 DraftKings points in two straight. With Victor Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox out of the lineup, Paul should serve as one of the team’s offensive focal points whenever he is on the floor.
Fast Break
Davion Mitchell is even cheaper than Paul, and he’s tough to ignore at $3,600. He’s currently projected for 32 minutes in our NBA Models, and that’s a ton of playing time for his salary. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.72 (per the Trends tool). Mitchell isn’t the greatest per-minute producer, which caps his upside, but he’s a great bet to return value. No one at the position has a higher projected Plus/Minus.
Sticking with the Heat, Tyler Herro is an intriguing tournament option. He’s projected for approximately 18% ownership vs. the Hornets, but his optimal lineup rate is closer to 25% in Sim Labs. Herro and Bam Adebayo are both listed as questionable, and both players would see a nice boost in value if the other is inactive. Make sure to monitor the injury report for updates.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Stephon Castle continues to make big strides in his rookie season. He was considered a bit raw as a prospect, and his jump shot remains a work in progress. However, he has thrived since taking over as the team’s top offensive option. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in 10 of his past 11 games, and he’s coming off a massive 52.25 DraftKings points in his last outing. Overall, he’s increased his production to 1.21 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is tied with Quentin Grimes for the top mark among Sunday’s shooting guards.
While Grimes is all the way up to $9,000 on DraftKings, Castle remains extremely affordable at $6,800. It results in an 82% Bargain Rating, and Castle is showing up in the optimal lineup simulations greater than 37% of the time. That’s the highest mark among all backcourt options, and it’s the third-highest mark overall.
Value
The Thunder could get a bit healthier Sunday. They’ve upgraded Lu Dort to questionable after he missed the past two games with an injury. Still, they’re going to be without Jalen Williams, so Cason Wallace should continue to play a big role in their rotation.
Wallace is currently projected for 30 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s increased his production to 0.88 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of his past four outings, scoring at least 28.25 DraftKings points in each. That gives him a nice combination of floor and ceiling at just $4,100.
Fast Break
The Hawks own one of the top matchups of the day. They’re taking on the 76ers, who are 29th in defensive efficiency over their past 15 games. Atlanta leads the slate with a 125.25 implied team total, and no other squad is above 117.75. That makes Dyson Daniels a solid target at shooting guard. Daniels has scored at least 41.0 DraftKings points in three straight contests, so he’s viable at $7,000 in a fantastic spot.
The Celtics are another squad to monitor from an injury standpoint. They’ve already ruled out Jaylen Brown, while Jayson Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis, and Jrue Holliday are all listed as questionable. That creates a scenario where Derrick White could serve as the team’s top offensive option. He’s gotten a bit pricy at $7,800, but he would warrant some consideration if the team is extremely thin.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
While some of the worst teams in basketball are wilting down the stretch, the Blazers seem to be getting stronger. They’re seventh in Net Rating over their past 15 games, and they’ve gone 9-6 over that stretch. It feels similar to what Houston did to end last season, setting them up as a potential surprise squad for next year.
Deni Avdija has been instrumental in their success. He’s also been fantastic for DFS players. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six outings, and he’s had some monster ceiling performances in that time frame. He has games of 53.25, 64.0, 68.0, and 69.0 DraftKings points, which is elite production for his $7,500 price tag. Overall, he’s averaged an elite 1.34 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, contributing in every category across the board.
The Celtics are a tough matchup, but they’d be less intimidating if they’re not at full strength. Avdija ultimately owns the fourth-highest ceiling projection at the position, and he has the best projected Plus/Minus among the high-priced small forwards.
Value
Justin Edwards remains priced at a massive discount for the 76ers. His $4,500 salary comes with a 91% Bargain Rating, and he’s scored at least 31.0 DraftKings points in three straight games. He’s projected for another 33 minutes Sunday vs. the Hawks in what figures to be one of the highest-scoring contests of the day. Atlanta has played at the second-fastest pace this season, so Edwards offers tons of upside if this game stays competitive. He’s currently projected for 23% ownership, but his optimal lineup rate is greater than 37%.
Fast Break
It’s tough to fully predict how the frontcourt minutes will shake out in San Antonio. Guys like Keldon Johnson and Harrison Barnes have both had inconsistent workloads recently, which has kept both of their price tags in check. Both players have upside if they play closer to their minute ceilings Sunday. Johnson has averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s coming off nearly 40 DraftKings points in his last outing. Barnes played more than 30 minutes in his last contest, and his $4,000 salary comes with an 88% Bargain Rating.
Andrew Wiggins has already been confirmed in for the Heat, and he’s scored at least 38.25 DraftKings points in three straight games. That gives him some value regardless of the Heat’s injury situation, but he would become a prime target if Herro and Adebayo are ruled out. He’s increased his usage rate by +11.77% with both players off the court, giving him significantly more upside in that scenario.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Kawhi Leonard is starting to look like the Leonard of old. He’s struggled as a scorer this season, but his efficiency has been much improved over his past 10 games. He’s shooting greater than 51% from the field over that stretch, and he’s averaged 24.5 points per game.
The increased efficiency has unsurprisingly had a positive impact on his fantasy production. He’s averaged 1.20 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five straight games.
That said, his price tag is up to $8,500, and he’s in a tough spot Sunday vs. the Thunder. OKC has been the unquestioned top team in basketball this season, and they’re listed as three-point road favorites in Los Angeles. Ultimately, this price tag feels a bit too cheap for Leonard in a vacuum, but he’s not super intriguing in this matchup.
Value
Jeremy Sochan has now logged at least 35.4 minutes in back-to-back games. If he’s going to continue to play that much, he’s way too cheap at $5,400. He’s averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and his current salary comes with a 93% Bargain Rating.
Sochan is a very tough fade in a great matchup vs. the Raptors. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.53, and he’s showing up in the optimal lineup simulations more than 64% of the time. His projected ownership is closer to 47%, so while he’s going to be one of the most popular plays of the day, he might not be as popular as he should be.
Fast Break
Chuma Okeke is getting a chance to get some run for the 76ers at the moment. He’s coming off 41.25 and 21.75 DraftKings points in his past two games, and he’s averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute overall. He’s projected for another 30 minutes vs. the Hawks, making him a solid value option at just $4,300.
Aaron Gordon is another member of the Nuggets who should benefit from the absence of Jokic. He’s increased his usage rate by +5.51% with the star big man off the floor, resulting in an average of 1.12 DraftKings points per minute. Unsurprisingly, Gordon has posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight contests, including two with at least 43.75 DraftKings points. His salary has come up to $5,700, but that still doesn’t feel expensive enough.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Adebayo is a reasonable option for the Heat if he’s able to suit up, but Onyeka Okongwu stands out as the better target in our NBA Models. He’s taken over as the team’s starting center and has thrived in that role. He’s increased his production to 1.27 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s scored at least 51.5 DraftKings points in two of his past three games.
Okongwu is up to $7,400 for Sunday’s matchup vs. the 76ers, but that’s still too cheap. His price tag comes with an 88% Bargain Rating, and the 76ers stand out as an elite matchup for opposing big men. In addition to struggling on defense, they’re also dead last in team rebound rate and 23rd in points in the paint allowed per game.
Value
Kel’el Ware has impressed as a rookie. He’s averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s played at least 32.5 minutes in back-to-back games. He’s responded with 37.0 and 45.0 DraftKings points in those outings, and there’s no reason to expect much less with a comparable workload vs. the Hornets. His minutes would be a lot safer if Adebayo is out of the lineup, so he becomes a more appealing target in that scenario. He’s another player who stands out as significantly underpriced, with his $5,000 salary resulting in a 94% Bargain Rating.
Fast Break
Jonathan Mogbo and Orlando Robinson both have some appeal for the Raptors. They’re taking on the Spurs, who are dead last in defensive efficiency over their past 15 games. Mogbo is the safer target from a minutes standpoint, and he’s also the cheaper option of the two. However, Robinson has been far better on a per-minute basis. He ultimately has a bit more upside, while Mogbo has the better projected Plus/Minus.
Guerschon Yabusele logged nearly 38 minutes in the 76ers’ last outing, and he responded with 43.25 DraftKings points. There’s no guarantee he plays that much again Sunday, but he clearly has upside if he does. He’s averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute for the year, so he has some sneaky appeal at just 6.5% projected ownership.
