Sunday features a five-game main slate starting at 6 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Stud
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been priced up to $11,000 for Sunday’s slate, which represents a new high-water mark for him this season. That said, it’s hard to say he’s not worth it. He’s scored at least 59.5 DraftKings points in five of his past eight outings, so he clearly has the potential to pay off this figure.
The Thunder also have a bit more upside than usual in their matchup vs. the Grizzlies. Memphis has played at the fastest pace in basketball this season, and the Thunder are implied for 118.5 points. That represents a significant increase from their season average of 113.8, so paying up for SGA is definitely viable in this spot.
Value
On the other side of that matchup, the Grizzlies are going to be a bit shorthanded in the backcourt. They’ve already ruled out Ja Morant and Marcus Smart for this matchup, meaning Scottie Pippen Jr. should move into the starting lineup.
That makes him a clear target in DFS. Pippen has been an elite fantasy producer this season, averaging 1.13 DraftKings points per minute, so he’s a prime option whenever he’s expected to play more than usual. He’s currently projected for 31 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 33.98 DraftKings points in 12 games without Morant this season. He’s done that in an average of just 27.21 minutes per game, so he has even more upside if he’s going to play 30-plus.
The last time Morant was out of the lineup, Pippen finished with 44.75 DraftKings points in 32.7 minutes. Ultimately, he leads the entire slate in projected Plus/Minus, making him a cornerstone of cash game lineups.
Fast Break
The Heat are expected to be without Jimmy Butler once again, which makes Alec Burks an appealing value option. Burks is priced at just $3,500, resulting in a massive 92% Bargain Rating, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games without Butler. He’s currently projected for 26 minutes in our NBA Models, and Burks has historically averaged a massive +15.17 Plus/Minus in 11 games with a comparable salary and minute projection (per the Trends tool).
Fred VanVleet draws a tough matchup Sunday vs. the Heat, but he’s down to just $6,900 on DraftKings. That represents a decrease of about $500 from his peak, and he’s scored at least 37.0 DraftKings points in three of his past four games. That gives him a smidge of buy-low appeal.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Tyler Herro should continue to see a boost in value for as long as Butler is out of the lineup. He’s seen a +1.75% bump to his usage rate with Butler off the floor this season, and he’s taken on a significantly larger role as a distributor. He’s seen a team-high +3.82% bump to his usage rate in that split, and he’s handed out at least nine dimes in two of his past three outings. Overall, Herro has averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute with Butler off the floor.
In nine full games without Butler, Herro has averaged better than 42 DraftKings points per outing. He’s had at least 49.5 DraftKings points in three of his past five contests, so he has plenty of upside at $8,000, even in a tough matchup vs. the Rockets.
Value
Donte DiVincenzo has had a slow start to his Timberwolves tenure, but he’s started to turn things on of late. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five outings, and he’s gone for at least 27.5 DraftKings points in three of them.
He had a true breakout performance in his last outing. He played more than 36.5 minutes off the bench and responded with 41.0 DraftKings points. DiVincenzo is not expected to play quite as much Sunday, as he’s currently projected for 27 minutes in our NBA Models, but he doesn’t need to at just $4,100. He’s increased his production to 0.97 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so that should still be enough to pay off his reduced price tag. He’s second only to Pippen in terms of projected Plus/Minus on Sunday’s slate.
Fast Break
Nickeil Alexander-Walker doesn’t have the same upside as DiVincenzo, but he’s another fantastic value target at $3,800. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six outings, and he’s averaged a healthy 0.85 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
Terry Rozier is another potential option for the shorthanded Heat. His playing time has been a bit inconsistent, but he’s currently projected for 29 minutes Sunday vs. the Rockets. Rozier hasn’t been quite as productive on a per-minute basis as usual this season, but he still has decent upside for his salary; he scored 33.25 DraftKings points three games ago in a brutal matchup vs. the Magic.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Desmond Bane enters the stud conversation with Morant and Smart sidelined Sunday. Bane is already a very good fantasy producer, averaging 1.20 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he’s increased that figure to 1.26 over the past month. Without Morant and Smart, he brings even more upside to the table.
Bane’s upside has been evident of late. He’s scored at least 46.25 DraftKings points in two of his past three contests, despite Morant being active for both. He played less than 27 minutes in one of those contests, so he has the potential for an even bigger outing vs. the Thunder. Bane is also projected for less than 18% ownership on this slate, so he stands out as a strong pay-up option for tournaments.
Value
Devin Vassell missed most of the early season with an injury, and the Spurs took their time getting him fully integrated into the offense. However, he’s started each of their past five games, and he’s played at least 31.8 minutes in four of them.
If Vassell is going to continue to play that much moving forward, he’s a clear value at just $5,500. He’s averaged just under a fantasy point per minute for the season, and he’s coming off 33.5 DraftKings points against the Nets in his last outing. The Spurs’ matchup vs. the Timberwolves isn’t ideal Sunday, but this is simply too good of a price tag to pass up.
Fast Break
Jaden McDaniels stands out on the other side of that matchup. His playing time has been a bit volatile of late, but his $4,200 price tag comes with a 90% Bargain Rating. He saw 34.6 minutes two games ago, and if he gets back to that level Sunday, he’s very likely to pay off his current price tag. He doesn’t bring a ton of upside to the table, but he’s a pretty safe target at such a minimal salary.
D’Andre Hunter has played extremely well for the Hawks recently, scoring at least 38.5 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. Atlanta draws one of the best possible matchups Sunday vs. the Raptors, who currently rank sixth in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency. They’re implied for 121.25 points in this contest, which trails only the Celtics.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
No one on the Grizzlies has seen a bigger boost in value with Morant sidelined than Jaren Jackson Jr. Triple-J always has an elite ceiling for DFS, but it’s even higher with Morant out of the picture. He’s seen a team-high +5.15% usage bump in that scenario, resulting in an average of 1.48 DraftKings points per minute.
Jackson has already been delivering strong value of late, posting a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his past eight outings, and he’s coming off 50.25 DraftKings points in his last game. He’s up to $7,800 for Sunday’s matchup vs. the Thunder, but he’s still an appealing target at that figure. The Thunder have struggled with opposing big men this season, and Jackson’s +4.25 Opponent Plus/Minus is the second-best mark at power forward.
Value
Keldon Johnson stands out as another appealing option for the Spurs. His $3,700 salary comes with a 91% Bargain Rating, and he’s coming off 27.5 DraftKings points in his last outing. His minutes have been sporadic of late, but he’s averaged a strong 0.92 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s projected for 23 minutes Sunday, and he’s a good bet to return value if he gets to that threshold.
Fast Break
Jalen Johnson is the only power forward with a superior Opponent Plus/Minus to Jackson on Sunday. He owns a mark of +4.84 vs. the Raptors, and he’s scored at least 58.25 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. He’s capable of racking up fantasy points in a variety of ways, giving him significant upside at $9,300.
Like DiVincenzo, Julius Randle is starting to break out with his new squad. He’s erupted for at least 46.25 DraftKings points in three straight games, including 51.0 in his last outing. Randle has always been an elite per-minute producer, and he’s starting to put that on display with the Timberwolves. If he’s back to playing at his previous level, $7,300 is way too cheap.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Victor Wembanyama is known as “The Alien” for a reason: he’s capable of doing things on a basketball court that most players can only dream of. That’s been on full display recently. He’s averaged 1.77 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, easily the top mark among Sunday’s options, and he’s scored at least 56.5 DraftKings points in five of his past six games. That includes a massive 83.0 DraftKings points vs. the Knicks on Christmas.
Wembanyama is up to $11,400 for Sunday’s matchup vs. the Timberwolves, and it’s hard to get too excited about him at that figure. The Timberwolves remain an elite defensive team, and Wembanyama owns a -3.6 Opponent Plus/Minus in this matchup.
Still, Wembanyama is capable of breaking a slate every time he steps on the floor. He’s projected for less than 5% ownership Sunday, and while he’s unplayable in cash games, it’s worth getting some exposure to him in tournaments at such minimal ownership.
Value
Zach Edey is starting to get rolling for the Grizzlies. He’s put together two strong outings in his last two contests, finishing with 50.0 and 33.75 DraftKings points. He’s averaged 1.21 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he’s averaged 26.0 minutes per game in six contests since returning from injury.
Edey has started each of the team’s past five contests, and he’s projected for another 26 minutes Sunday vs. the Thunder. Ultimately, he stands out as one of the best pure values at the position.
Fast Break
Even with Onyeka Okongwu out of the lineup recently, Clint Capela has struggled to get going. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in six straight games, and he’s been at 18.0 DraftKings points or fewer in three straight. Still, we know what type of upside Capela brings to the table, making him a prime buy-low target vs. the Raptors. Toronto is about as good as it gets from a matchup perspective for centers, with Capela leading the position with a +7.61 Opponent Plus/Minus.
Nikola Jovic came slumping back to reality in his last outing, but he had at least 26.5 DraftKings points in each of his prior two games. That gives him some appeal at just $4,000, especially at what should be minimal ownership.
