NBA DFS Picks Breakdown on DraftKings (Sunday, December 22)

Sunday features a three-game main slate starting at 6 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Stud

The point guard position is pretty robust for a three-game slate. However, Jamal Murray stands out as the clear top option. He leads all players in terms of projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings, where his $7,200 salary comes with an 89% Bargain Rating.

Murray hasn’t looked like the same player at times this season, but he’s played significantly better of late. He’s increased his production to 1.09 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s coming off back-to-back big games. He’s played at least 38 minutes in both contests, and he’s responded with 43.0 and 51.25 DraftKings points.

Murray and the Nuggets draw one of the best possible matchups Sunday. They’re taking on the Pelicans, who currently rank 28th in defensive efficiency and will be on the second leg of a back-to-back. The Nuggets are implied for 120.75 points in this spot, which is the top mark on Sunday’s slate.

---

Value

Andrew Nembhard stands out as an excellent value option in the Pacers backcourt. He missed some time earlier this season with an injury, but he’s been back in the lineup for nearly a month. The Pacers have slowly started ramping up his playing time, culminating in at least 30.7 minutes in three of his past four games. Nembhard has also been more efficient with his minutes, increasing his output to 0.89 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.

Nembhard’s price tag has yet to reflect his increased production. He’s priced at just $4,300 vs. the Kings, resulting in an 85% Bargain Rating. This is another matchup that figures to be really strong for fantasy purposes, with the Kings listed as two-point favorites in a game with a 237.5-point total.

---

Fast Break

Tyrese Haliburton leads all point guards in projected ceiling, and he’s turned things around after a shaky start to the year. He’s averaged 1.21 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is closer to what we’ve come to expect from the young stud. He’s posted a double-double in three straight games, including a massive 60.25 DraftKings points vs. the 76ers three games ago.

Fred VanVleet is a potential buy-low target for the Rockets. He hasn’t played well of late, averaging a -3.52 Plus/Minus over his past 10 outings, but he did manage to return value in his last game. His salary is also slightly down at $6,900, and he draws a solid matchup Sunday vs. the Raptors. They’re 23rd in defensive efficiency, and this is a potential #RevengeGame, if you’re into that sort of thing.

Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Is Jalen Green ever going to make “the leap”? He was drafted second overall in 2021, and he displays flashes where he looks unstoppable. He has elite athleticism, but he has been unable to score the ball efficiently at the NBA level. Green is shooting just 40.5% from the field and 31.8% from 3-point range so far this season, so he’s shown minimal progress from his rookie season.

Still, you don’t get points for efficiency in DFS. Green is still scoring points at a respectable rate, averaging 0.99 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s gone for at least 40.5 DraftKings points in three of his past six outings, including 48.5 vs. the Pelicans on Thursday. That gives him an excellent ceiling at just $6,200, especially in a strong matchup vs. the Raptors.

---

Value

There isn’t a true “value” target worth considering at shooting guard Sunday. Most of the top targets are all priced in the same range, checking in somewhere between $5,500 and $7,200.

Amen Thompson is about as cheap as I’m willing to go, but he’s certainly in play vs. the Raptors. In fact, he’s one of the best pure values at the position on DraftKings, given his 88% Bargain Rating.

Thompson’s minutes aren’t quite as consistent as Green’s, but he’s capable of doing significant damage when he’s on the floor. He’s averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he’s capable of contributing in every category across the board.

Thompson is currently projected for 29 minutes in our NBA Models, and if he gets to that threshold, he’s a good bet to return value. Historically, Thompson has averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.88 with a comparable salary and minute projection (per the Trends tool).

---

Fast Break

C.J. McCollum is down to just $6,800 for the Pelicans after being priced as high as $7,800 earlier this season. He definitely has some buy-low appeal at that figure, posting an average Plus/Minus of +2.01 with a comparable price tag for his career.

Malik Monk at $7,000 might cause a bit of sticker shock, but he’s capable of putting up huge numbers as a member of the Kings’ starting lineup. He’s averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is the top mark among Sunday’s shooting guards. He struggled Saturday vs. the Lakers, finishing with just seven points and eight assists in 35.8 minutes, but he shot a dreadful 3-for-14 from the field. With some better shooting luck Sunday, he has one of the highest ceilings at the position.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Trey Murphy was expected to be a role player for the Pelicans this season, but it hasn’t exactly worked out that way. The team has dealt with tons of injuries all season, and they’re currently without both Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson.

Without both players, Murphy has responded with some big games of late. He’s scored at least 35.25 DraftKings points in four of his past six games, including each of his past two. He’s seen slight bumps to his usage and rebound rates with Ingram and Williamson off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 0.98 DraftKings points per minute.

Murphy is projected for 36 minutes in our NBA Models, making him too cheap at $6,400.

---

Value

Dillon Brooks became an NBA punchline at the end of his Grizzlies tenure, but it’s clear that he brings something to the table. His defense and tenacity have helped transform the culture in Houston, and he’s capable of contributing on the floor as well. He’s averaged a +6.05 Plus/Minus over his past 10 outings, and he’s scored at least 42.25 DraftKings points in two of his past four games.

Brooks stands out as one of the better values of the day at $4,500. He’s currently projected for 33 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.86. He ultimately provides a nice combination of floor and ceiling vs. the Raptors.

---

Fast Break

Michael Porter Jr. has seen his salary dip to just $6,600 on DraftKings after peaking at $7,600 in November. That makes him an interesting buy-low target for tournaments. He’s a volatile player, but he’s still averaged a strong 1.05 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s played 32.4 minutes or fewer in three straight games, so if he picks up a few additional minutes Sunday, he has the potential for a big outing.

Christian Braun is another potential option for the Nuggets. His production has decreased over the past month, but he’s still playing big minutes. He’s projected for 32 minutes in our NBA Models, and he still has a strong ceiling for his price tag; he went off for 39.5 DraftKings points three games ago vs. the Hawks.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

DeMar DeRozan hasn’t been asked to do much of late. He’s posted usage rates of just 15.7% and 19.0% over his past two outings, and the Kings have plenty of other capable scorers. DeRozan has posted a negative Plus/Minus in seven of his past eight outings, so there’s definitely some risk with him Sunday.

Still, this is DeMar DeRozan we’re talking about. He’s one of the most accomplished scorers in recent history, and he’s on pace to average more than 20 points per game for the 12th straight year. His usage rate sits at 24.9% for the season, so he appears due for some positive regression in that department.

DeRozan was priced at $8,000 just three games ago, so his $7,300 salary vs. the Pacers stands out as appealing. He’s a viable buy-low target for tournaments, especially given an ownership projection of around 16%.

---

Value

Herb Jones is another player who has had to help pick up the slack for the Pelicans this season. He missed more than a month with an injury of his own, but he’s been excellent since returning to the lineup. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of seven games, and he’s averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute.

Jones is currently projected for 34 minutes in our NBA Models, making him a clear target at just $5,000. His price tag comes with an 81% Bargain Rating, which is one of the top marks at the position.

---

Fast Break

Chris Boucher stands out as one of the best punt plays of the day at $3,700. He’s always been an outstanding per-minute producer, but minutes have been hard to come by for him this season. However, with Jakob Poeltl currently out of the lineup, he’s expected to see around 20 minutes vs. the Rockets. He’s averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute for the year, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to potentially do damage.

Jonathan Mogbo is another potential option for the Raptors. He’s moved into the starting lineup in place of Poeltl, and he racked up 25.0 DraftKings points in 30.4 minutes in his last outing. He should see a similar workload Sunday, and he’s averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute for the year.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Like point guard, center is another really strong position on Sunday’s slate. It might not be quite as deep, but it features significantly more star power. That starts with Nikola Jokic, who remains the unquestioned best player in basketball (both real and fantasy).

Jokic is having another MVP-worthy campaign in 2024-25. He’s averaging a career-best 31.0 points per game, and he’s also been dominant in the peripheral categories (13.0 rebounds, 9.8 assists). Add it all up, and he’s averaged an eye-popping 1.85 DraftKings points per minute for the year.

Jokic is insanely expensive, but he’s been worth every penny for most of the year. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all but three games this season, and two of the exceptions have been blowouts. A blowout is certainly possible vs. the Pelicans, but if this game stays competitive, Jokic has the top ceiling on the slate by a country mile.

---

Value

Yves Missi will have the unenviable task of competing with Jokic at center, but he stands out as an excellent DFS target in his own right. In fact, he leads the center position in projected Plus/Minus.

Missi has averaged a healthy 1.03 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s projected for more than 30 minutes in our NBA Models. He struggled Saturday vs. the Knicks, but he had posted a positive Plus/Minus in his four previous outings.

---

Fast Break

As good as Jokic is, our models slightly prefer Alperen Sengun on Sunday. His ceiling isn’t quite as high, but he stands out as a slightly better value at just $8,900. Sengun is capable of doing a lot of the same things as Jokic on a basketball court, and he’s averaged 1.47 DraftKings points per minute for the year. He hasn’t been quite as good recently, as his production has dipped to 1.34 over the past month, but he could feast on a Raptors team missing its starting center.

Obi Toppin is another potential value to consider in the frontcourt. He doesn’t play a ton of minutes for the Pacers, but he makes the most out of what he’s given. He’s averaged 1.22 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.66 over his past 10 outings. His price tag has come up a bit, but his $4,600 salary on DraftKings still comes with a 90% Bargain Rating.