NBA DFS Picks Breakdown on DraftKings (Sunday, April 13)

Sunday features a seven-game main slate starting at 1 p.m. ET.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.

Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Stud

DraftKings undoubtedly picked the wrong main slate for Sunday. It will feature the seven early games on the slate, and all of those involve the Eastern Conference. Unfortunately, every team in the East is locked into their current position in the standings, so there is nothing up for grabs. That means that most of the top studs from these squads won’t be in action. It creates an interesting dynamic where salary is basically irrelevant, and the lineups that score the most points could use far less than the full salary cap.

However, Cade Cunningham is the one big exception. He’s currently listed as probable on the injury report, which means he should be in the lineup on Sunday. It remains to be seen if he’ll play a full workload, but it gives him the clear top ceiling projection on the slate. Cunningham has averaged 1.61 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s scored at least 50.75 DraftKings points in five of his past six games. If he approaches 30 minutes vs. the Bucks, it gives him an excellent chance of being the highest-scoring player on the slate.

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Value

The Cavaliers look like they’re going to be one of the thinnest teams on Sunday. They’ve already ruled out nine players, and that doesn’t include Jarrett Allen. I can’t imagine they’re going to push him very hard with all the other starters and key reserves sidelined, so it doesn’t leave the team with a ton of bodies.

Craig Porter and Emoni Bates stand out as two of the best options at point guard. Porter is projected for 32 minutes at just $3,100, which is a really tough combination to pass up. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.59 (per the Trends tool). Porter has also averaged a strong 0.86 DraftKings points per minute in his 138 minutes of court time this season, so he has the potential to crush his current salary.

Bates is priced at the absolute minimum, and he’s projected for 25 minutes in our NBA Models. He hasn’t been quite as productive as Porter this season, but he’s another potential value target.

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Fast Break

The Bucks have listed a bunch of players as out or doubtful for Sunday, including Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard, and Kevin Porter Jr. It opens the door for Ryan Rollins to handle most of the point guard responsibilities. Rollins has lost some playing time to KPJ of late, but he’s still averaged a strong 0.96 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He should eclipse 30 minutes on Sunday, making him a strong option at $4,600.

The Pacers are going to be without Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam, but T.J. McConnell will be in the lineup. He likely won’t see a huge spike in playing time, but McConnell is capable of doing a ton of damage quickly. He’s averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s averaged 1.20 DraftKings points per minute with Haliburton and Siakam off the floor this season.

Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

It should be the Payton Pritchard show for Boston on Sunday. They’re going to be without their top six players – Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Kristaps Porzingis, Derek White, Jrue Holiday, and Al Horford – leaving Pritchard to handle most of the scoring responsibilities. He’s thrived as their sixth man for most of the year, and he’s been an absolute demon with all six of those players off the floor this season. He’s seen a massive +13.52% bump to his usage rate, resulting in an average of 1.39 DraftKings points per minute.

It’s possible that Pritchard is also slightly limited for the Celtics on Sunday, but we currently have him projected for 32 minutes in our NBA Models. That’s enough to give him the top ceiling projection at shooting guard. He’s going to be popular – he’s currently projected for 46.9% ownership – but Sim Labs suggests that might not be popular enough: his optimal lineup rate is a slate-best 73.46%.

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Value

The Heat are another team we can look to for value, with Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Andrew Wiggins, and others getting the day off vs. the Wizards. It opens the door for Jaime Jaquez to step into a more prominent role.

Jaquez was a strong contributor for Miami as a rookie, but he’s been unable to find the same success this season. However, he’s been productive when he’s gotten an opportunity of late, averaging 1.00 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s currently projected for 30 minutes in our NBA Models, making him a strong option in an elite matchup. The Wizards have been one of the best teams to target all season, ranking 28th in defensive efficiency while playing at the fourth-fastest pace.

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Fast Break

It remains to be seen whether or not Quentin Grimes will be in the lineup for the 76ers. He’s officially listed as questionable after sitting out their last contest. However, if he suits up, he has one of the higher ceilings on the slate. He’s averaged 1.30 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s scored at least 49.25 DraftKings points in back-to-back games.

Andre Jackson is another potential value option for Milwaukee. He’s priced at the absolute minimum vs. the Pistons, but he should play 30+ minutes with the team so shorthanded. His average of 0.79 DraftKings points per minute is also respectable.

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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

The Bulls are locked into the No. 9 seed in the East, setting up a matchup vs. the Heat in the Play-In Tournament. They’re going to give a few players the day off on Sunday, but Coby White doesn’t appear to be one of them. There’s always a chance he plays fewer minutes than usual, but it at least gives him a high ceiling when he’s on the floor.

White has operated as the team’s top scoring threat since trading away Zach LaVine, and he’s averaged 1.19 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. That figure could be even higher on Sunday with Josh Giddey out of the picture.

The Bulls also draw an excellent matchup with the tanking 76ers. They’re 28th in defensive efficiency over their past 15 games, and the Bulls have the top implied team total on the slate. Even with only 26 projected minutes, White still owns the top ceiling projection at small forward.

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Value

Jaylon Tyson leads the way in terms of projected Plus/Minus at small forward. He’s another player who is priced at the minimum projected for 32 minutes for the Cavaliers. His price tag also comes with a 93% Bargain Rating, making him one of the better pure values on the slate.

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Fast Break

Duncan Robinson is a smidge more expensive at $3,800, but he has a much more proven track record than some of the other value options on this slate. He’s a proven 3-point threat at the NBA level, and he’s projected for 32 minutes vs. the Wizards. He’s averaged 0.79 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and that figure has increased to 0.86 with Herro, Adebayo, Wiggins, and Alec Burks off the floor.

Pat Connaughton should get decent burn for the Bucks on Sunday. He’s been a key rotation piece for them in the past, and while that hasn’t been the case this season, he’s still averaged 0.81 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. 

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

If you need any more proof about how silly this slate is going to be, look no further than power forward. The player with the top ceiling projection at the position is none other than Sam Hauser. He’s priced at just $4,500, so the price tags on this slate are basically like the points on Who’s Line is It Anyway: they simply don’t matter.

For what it’s worth, Hauser has been a solid rotation player for the Celtics all season, and he should move into a starring role on Sunday. He’s seen an 11.31% bump to his usage rate with the Celtics’ top six players off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 0.92 DraftKings points per minute. He’s currently projected for 32 minutes on Sunday, so he’s definitely a viable target.

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Value

Jerace Walker is an intriguing value for the Pacers. While he’s not projected for quite as many minutes as some of the other values on this slate, he is one of the better per-minute producers. He’s averaged more than a fantasy point per minute over the past month, giving him a solid ceiling at just $3,300. If he ends up playing more than his 26 projected minutes, he could be one of the strongest values of the day.

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Fast Break

Haywood Highsmith has gotten some run for the Heat even at full strength recently, and he should cruise past 30 minutes with the team shorthanded on Sunday. He’s not the best on a per-minute basis, but anyone who has the potential for 30+ minutes is viable vs. the Wizards. Kyle Anderson also fits that description.

Javonte Green and Chuma Okeke are both projected for more than 30 minutes for the Cavaliers at sub-$4k price tags. Of the two, Okeke stands out as the more intriguing option. We’ve seen him get the opportunity to play big minutes on occasion recently, and he’s responded with games of 34.25 and 41.25 DraftKings points.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Nikola Vucevic looks very similar to White on Sunday. He may not handle a full workload vs. the 76ers, but he still has the potential to be one of the best players at his position. He’s averaged a stout 1.41 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he leads all centers in projected ceiling. He’s also showing up in the optimal lineup simulations better than 60% of the time, so he’s another strong pay-up option.

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Value

Milwaukee has a few different minimum-priced centers who are popping in our Models, but Chris Livingston stands out as the most intriguing. He’s projected for 27 minutes – the most of the group – and he’s also been the best producer on a per-minute basis. He’s averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he seems the most likely to take advantage of his expanded role. Pete Nance and Tyler Smith are also expected to see decent roles vs. the Pistons, so mixing and matching that trio could make sense for tournaments.

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Fast Break

Onyeka Okongwu is questionable for the Hawks, and if he’s ruled out, Mouhamed Gueye becomes the clear-cut top value at center. He’s a smidge more expensive at $3,400, but he’s averaged better than a fantasy point per minute over the past month. He’s also proven he can take advantage of an expanded role, going off for 44.5 DraftKings points in 33.3 minutes in his last outing.

Finally, Kel’el Ware is not one of the Heat players who is expected to sit out on Sunday. That makes him a solid midrange player with upside. Ware has averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he could get to display his offensive game a bit more with the Heat resting their top scorers.

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Pictured: Payton Pritchard
Photo Credit: Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images