This Saturday night, the NBA has a lighter schedule as it prepares for the final week leading up to the end of the regular season. Four games make up the main DFS fantasy basketball slate, which gets underway at 7:00 p.m. ET. Even though there are only eight teams in action, the injury report will be critical to watch, with three of those teams playing on the second night of a back-to-back. The Pistons, Clippers, and Mavericks all played Friday and will play again on Saturday, while the Bucks are the only team on the main slate who is scheduled to be in action again on Sunday. At this point in the season, it’s always critical to keep a close eye on the injury report and be ready to pivot if needed since teams are resting players and players are dealing with injuries. However, despite that uncertainty, several strong options stand out in our projections for Saturday’s four-game slate.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
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Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Two of the top studs at point guard are questionable, and their status will have a huge impact on the slate. Cade Cunningham has missed six straight games but could return against the Grizzlies, and Tyler Herro is questionable with a thigh contusion, which is a new injury for the All-Star. With their uncertainty, the projections give James Harden the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at the position and the best Projected Plus/Minus of all the point guards priced over $5,000.
Harden could get even more work if Kawhi Leonard sits out the second night of the back-to-back, which has been his pattern this season. Harden had 27.5 DraftKings points on Friday in 30 minutes in the Clippers’ comfortable win, but he had been better with at least 45 DraftKings points in three straight and 14 of his last 16 games before that slightly down performance.
On the season, Harden is averaging 46.7 DraftKings points per game, but since the All-Star break, he has been even better, producing 49.0 DraftKings points per game. In the four games he has played without Kawhi during that stretch, he averaged 53.1 DraftKings points per game with a 36.2% usage rate in those contests.
Whether Kawhi sits or not, Harden is the safest play at the position from the stud options on Saturday, and if Leonard does sit, Harden’s ceiling is even higher.
Value
Even though Ja Morant and Desmond Bane are not on the injury report and should play their normal minutes, Scotty Pippen Jr. has the top Projected Plus/Minus at point guard on Saturday. If Cunningham or Herro is out, that could radically change the situation, but with them in the projections for now, Pippen looks to be the best value play.
Morant has played the last four games for the Grizzlies since they made their shocking head coaching change. Pippen has 30+ DraftKings points in two of those contests and is coming off an impressive 17-point, seven-assist game against the Heat on Thursday. He finished with 35.25 DraftKings points off the bench in that game, and he is getting enough playing time in Memphis’s new-look rotation to be a good value even when he’s not filling in for an injured starter.
The Pistons-Grizzlies matchup has the highest over/under on the slate since both teams play at such a fast pace, so opportunities for fantasy production should be plentiful on both sides of the contest.
Fast Break
If Cade Cunningham returns, he could be on a minutes limit or at less than 100%, which makes him extremely high-risk, but he brings an extremely high ceiling that he has shown off all season. If he is out, Dennis Schroder would be a strong play after 30+ DraftKings points in four straight games. It would be a great value spot for Schroder given the uptempo expectations for this contest Saturday.
Miami has been leaning heavily on Tyler Herro, especially with Andrew Wiggins (hamstring) out. Herro has over 45 DraftKings points in five straight and is coming off 54.75 DraftKings points against the Grizzlies on Thursday. If he plays, he has a very high ceiling, but if he sits, Alec Burks, Davion Mitchell, and possibly even Terry Rozier would have to step into larger offensive roles.
While filling in for Damian Lillard (calf), Ryan Rollins has exceeded salary-based expectations in four of his last five games. He had a down game on Thursday against the 76ers with just 13 DraftKings points but had over 27 DraftKings points in three of his four previous games, highlighted by 42.25 DraftKings points against the Suns earlier this week. He has a very high ceiling against Miami, especially if Herro is out or at less than 100%.
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NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
At shooting guard, Anthony Edwards is the top stud option if you have the salary available to spend up on the Timberwolves superstar. He has the top median, ceiling, and floor projections at the position on this slate, as he takes on the struggling Sixers in Philly.
Edwards has scored at least 25 points and produced at least 42 DraftKings points in each of his last three contests. He almost had a triple-double in the Timberwolves’ win over the Nuggets on Tuesday, totaling 62 DraftKings points on 34 points, 10 rebounds, and eight assists. He had a solid game against Brooklyn on Thursday as well, with 28 points and 46.25 DraftKings points.
While there is definitely potential for a blowout, Minnesota has the highest implied team total on the board, and they should lean heavily on Edwards in Saturday’s contest, making him a good pay-up spot. The Timberwolves, Clippers, and Grizzlies all enter the night at 45-32 tied for sixth, seventh, and eighth in the Western Conference. They’re within two games of the No. 3 seed or could end up in the Play-In Tournament depending on how the next eight days play out. Edwards should be in a good spot to rise to the challenge on Saturday and smash the Sixers.
Value
One of the exciting new features this season on FantasyLabs is our partnership with ShotQuality. In the ShotQuality projections for shooting guard on Saturday, Clippers Bogdan Bogdanovic and Kris Dunn hold the top two spots in Projected Plus/Minus as strong options under $4,000.
Bogdanovic has scored at least 12 points and put up over 20 DraftKings points in three of his last four games. He reached 30 DraftKings points in Friday’s win in this same matchup. He is a little streaky since he relies on his outside shooting but has the top Projected Plus/Minus of all shooting guards in both sets of projections.
Dunn is less reliant on outside shooting and usually gets his production from non-scoring categories. He exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his last six games, averaging 21.0 DraftKings points per game over that stretch.
Both Bogdanovic and Dunn would also get a boost if Kawhi ends up sitting, since that would open more playing time on the wing. In the four games they have played without Kawhi since the All-Star break, Bogdanovic has averaged 34.8 DraftKings points and Dunn 26.5 DraftKings points.
Fast Break
Desmond Bane ranks behind only Edwards in the ceiling, median, and floor projections at shooting guard for Saturday. He fell just one rebound short of a double-double on Thursday against the Heat, totaling 39.75 DraftKings points. With Morant available, he doesn’t have quite as high of a ceiling, but he still has enough upside to be a solid mid-range target if you can’t afford to pay up for Ant.
Norman Powell would also have to step up and shoulder the load for the Clippers if Kawhi sits. He has been working his way back from a hamstring issue but seems to have found his stride. He brings a high ceiling if Leonard is out, but he’s too high-risk if Kawhi does give it a go on the second night of the back-to-back.
Coming off the bench for the Timberwolves, Nickeil Alexander-Walker has been solid all season but has stepped up even more lately. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position in the FantasyLabs projections after exceeding salary-based expectations in eight of his last nine games and posting 52.75 DraftKings points and 34.0 DraftKings points in his two games earlier this week. That huge game came with Donte DiVincenzo suspended, so NAW typically doesn’t get enough usage to reach that kind of ceiling even though he does bring good value.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
On this small slate, small forward doesn’t have many top-tier options to consider. Ausar Thompson is barely over $6,000, but he has the highest floor projection at the position and the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position in the ShotQuality projections. He also has the second-highest median and ceiling projections at small forward in both sets of projections.
Thompson has stepped up and taken on more work with Cunningham out and outproduced salary-based expectations in four of his last five games. He has 30+ DraftKings points in each of those four contests and reached 46 DraftKings points with an 18-point, 10-rebound performance last week against the Cavaliers.
After a delayed start to the season, Thompson has had a strong stretch of protection over the last two months. Since February 1, he averaged 27.4 DraftKings points in 24.2 minutes per game over his 29 contests. He brings multi-category potential and is a solid play to build around regardless of if Cunningham returns or misses another game for Detroit.
Value
In the ShotQuality projections, Jaylen Wells has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward. The Grizzlies rookie from Washington State has played all 77 games this season for Memphis and started 72 of those contests.
His playing time has stayed consistent most of the season, but his offensive role has started to climb over the past few games. He scored double-digit points in five of his last six games, averaging 10.3 points, 4.8 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 21.3 DraftKings points per game. He has at least 19 DraftKings points in five of those contests, which is enough to make him an outstanding value play with his salary of only $3,100, barely over the minimum.
Since he is getting so many minutes, he is relatively low-risk, especially for a player this affordable. If you want to stack up stars in other spots, Wells is a great way to go cheap at small forward but still get production.
Fast Break
Malik Beasley has the third-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at small forward in the ShotQuality projections and could be much busier if Cunningham misses another game. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his last eight contests and is coming off a 21-point game against the Raptors that earned him 32.5 DraftKings points.
Naji Marshall stepped up with 22 points and 33 DraftKings points in 36 minutes on Friday night against the Clippers, but his role in the rotation is very uncertain depending on who else is available on his team. If he gets minutes and usage, he has a high ceiling, so check the Mavs’ injury report before determining his value for this slate.
The Heat have been using Pelle Larsson more with Wiggins out, although Duncan Robinson’s return could take some of that usage away. Larsson had three games of at least 14 points and 29 DraftKings points on the Heat’s three-game road trip but only managed 19.5 DraftKings points in their home game against Memphis on Thursday. If he’s back to around 30 minutes a game, he’ll be a strong option, and if Herro sits, there will be a ton of usage available that the 24-year-old Swedish rookie could help absorb.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
There are plenty of value options available on Saturday’s slate, but you’ll have to be smart about what you do with all the salary you save. Giannis Antetokounmpo is a great pay-up place since he has the top median, ceiling, and floor projections on the entire slate in both sets of projections. He is expensive at over $12,000, but he brings a high enough ceiling to still be a potential value.
Giannis is coming off a massive game on Thursday against the 76ers. He totaled 94.25 DraftKings points on 35 points, 20 assists, 17 rebounds, and two steals in 39 minutes. He became the first player in NBA history with at least 35 points, 20 assists, and 15 rebounds in a single game.
While that historic performance is definitely a ceiling game, he has been very productive on a regular basis, posting at least 49 DraftKings points in each of his last six games and averaging 61.0 DraftKings points per game in his seven games without Dame since March 1.
Value
In both sets of projections, Santa Aldama has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward coming into his matchup with the Pistons. Aldama has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last three games and has been a solid producer on the season for Memphis despite battling a few nagging injuries.
Aldama had 38.5 DraftKings points against the Celtics, 30.5 DraftKings points against the Warriors, and 26.5 DraftKings points against the Heat over the past week. He came off the bench in each of those three games, but he has proven he can provide a nice boost in the second unit or in the starting five.
While he isn’t as flashy as some of the other names in the mid-range salary tier, he has consistently chipped in for the Grizzlies and makes sense in what should be a favorable game environment against Detroit.
Fast Break
If he plays, Kawhi Leonard will definitely impact the slate in multiple ways. He would drain potential usage from the rest of the Clippers and would also be a high-risk play with a high ceiling himself. Kawhi only needed to play 23 minutes against the Mavs on Friday to score 20 points and finish with 33.5 DraftKings points. Since his minutes were so limited, there’s a chance we’ll see him Saturday, but the team could also be cautious and sit him out. He has been excellent when available lately, producing over 44 DraftKings points in seven of his last 11 contests.
On the other side of that matchup, Anthony Davis is another big question mark. AD played 30 minutes on Wednesday in Atlanta and posted his best game since returning from injury, with 34 points, 15 rebounds, and 68.25 DraftKings points. If he plays on Saturday, he’ll have a high ceiling against the Clippers but also be high-risk since he has been under 41 DraftKings points in his other four games since returning from injury.
If you have to go cheap at power forward and Leonard and Davis both end up playing, the Heat have some options to consider. Both Haywood Highsmith and Kyle Anderson are under $4,000 and have been getting more work without Wiggins. Highsmith has exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his last nine games and Anderson in eight of his last 10. In each of the Heat’s last four games without Wiggins, Anderson has played 20+ minutes and produced 15+ DraftKings points with a high point of 23.75 DraftKings points against Boston on Wednesday.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
All season long, Ivica Zubac has been a double-double machine. He has the second-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at center on this slate behind only Giannis. Since he’s more than $4,000 cheaper than Giannis, he has a much better Projected Plus/Minus.
Zubac has 54 double-doubles in his 75 games this season and has posted 10 straight double-doubles while averaging 17.9 points, 13.3 rebounds, 3.1 assists, and 1.3 blocked shots in his last 10 games. He only needed 27 minutes on Friday to post 37.75 DraftKings points against the Mavs and could step into a larger role in the offense if Kawhi sits on Saturday.
Whether Leonard is in or out, Zubac brings enough upside to be a good play at his price of just over $8,000. He had a monster game against the Magic earlier this week with 18 points, 20 rebounds, and 51.5 DraftKings points.
Value
Zach Edey has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all centers in both sets of projections on Saturday night. His role has been one of the biggest shifts since interim coach Tuomas Iisalo took over, and his extra work has led to great fantasy numbers.
Edey has started each of the last four games for Memphis and played over 26 minutes in three of those contests. He had 39.75, 40, and 26.25 DraftKings points in those three games, with his best performance coming against the Warriors on Tuesday, when he had 10 points, 16 boards, and four blocks in 32 minutes.
His numbers have improved on offense throughout the season, and he remains a force on defense, both on the glass and by blocking shots in the paint. He still has lots of room to grow, but if he is getting 25+ minutes on a regular basis, he’ll be a great value under $5,000, especially in this kind of favorable game environment in Detroit.
Fast Break
If Herro is out, Bam Adebayo will have to step up and carry more of the offense in a tough matchup against the Bucks, who typically defend opposing big men very well. He has averaged 40.7 DraftKings points per game over his last nine contests, with a 27.0% usage rate, but with Herro off the floor during that span, his usage rate jumps to 34.9%, and he has produced 1.42 DraftKings points per minute in that situation.
76ers center Adem Bona has shown good upside lately and has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position in the FantasyLabs projections. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in nine of the last 10 games he played, with at least 30 DraftKings points in four straight. He had a career-high 28 points against the Bucks on Thursday and added six boards and three blocks to finish with 44 DraftKings points.
Both sets of projections give Isaiah Stewart the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at center, as he comes back from his two-game suspension. He had 19+ DraftKings points in four straight before getting into the scuffle in Minnesota. He is usually a reliable source of solid production given that his salary just over the minimum.
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