With just over a week left in the regular season, most teams are down to their last four or five games before heading into the offseason or the postseason. Saturday night, there are three games on the main DFS fantasy basketball slate that tips off at 7:00 p.m. ET. The Pistons and Grizzlies are finishing back-to-backs on Saturday’s slate, while the Nets and 76ers will both play again on Sunday as part of a massive 13-game schedule. Every team in the NBA is scheduled to play next Friday and Sunday with a day off in between, so this is the final Saturday night slate of the regular season.
Especially on a small slate like this, it’s extremely important to monitor the news throughout the day for injury updates. As news breaks, refresh the NBA Models for the latest updates to see how your lineup should be impacted by who’s in and who’s out.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Editor’s Note: Jaren Jackson, Jr. and Desmond Bane are out. Lamar Stevens is now doubtful.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Dejounte Murray continues to be the focal point of the Hawks’ attack as they head to Denver on Saturday. He has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all point guards on the slate. The Hawks-Nuggets matchup has the highest over/under of the three games on the slate, and both teams are in races for meaningful playoff seeding.
Murray has helped the Hawks stay in position for the Play-In Tournament despite the injury to Trae Young (finger). They are just one game behind the Bulls for the No. 10 spot, but Chicago has the tie-breaker. Since Young’s injury, Murray has averaged 1.36 DraftKings points per minute in 21 games while playing 37.1 minutes with a 30.2% usage rate and 37.8% assist rate. He had a nice 24-point, 11-assist double-double against the Pistons on Wednesday and showed an even higher ceiling in two wins against Boston two weeks ago.
The matchup against Denver should be a favorable one for Dejounte Murray since Jamal Murray (knee) is questionable and will either be missing his eighth straight game or playing his first game back. In either scenario, Dejounte Murray should have the advantage and be the best pay-up play at point guard on Saturday.
Value
The Grizzlies are running out of players as we come to the end of a season that has been totally lost for Memphis due to multiple key injuries. Even though they were very shorthanded, they rolled past the Pistons on Friday night in the first game of their back-to-back. Since it is a back-to-back, the Grizzlies injury report will be very important to watch on Saturday, but if Desmond Bane (back) misses a fifth straight game, there should be great value again in the Grizzlies’ backcourt.
Jordan Goodwin has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate and has exceeded salary-based expectations in four straight games. He had three games with double-digit rebounds in those four games and finished with 14 points, six rebounds, and six assists in Friday’s win. He started alongside Scotty Pippen Jr. with Bane, Luke Kennard (knee) and John Konchar (heel) all out on Friday, and if he gets another start, he’ll be a great value option with multi-category upside.
Pippen is also worth a look as a value point guard after posting 16 points and 11 assists on his way to 38.75 DraftKings points on Friday. He and Goodwin will both be solid guard options as long as no one makes an unexpected return.
Fast Break
After missing three games with a hip injury, Tyrese Maxey went off for 37 points and 11 assists on Thursday against the Heat, dropping 72.25 DraftKings points in 41 minutes. He can still thrive alongside Joel Embiid (injury management), although both stars are questionable for Saturday’s matchup in Memphis, so monitor that injury report before locking in either option.
As a mid-range play, Dennis Schroder has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards. He has averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute over his last five games with a 22.6% usage rate. With Dennis Smith Jr. (hip) doubtful, Schroder should continue to get plenty of minutes for Brooklyn. He has both a high ceiling and a high floor since he can produce in multiple categories.
If you decide to go with a bargain point guard, Christian Braun is worth a look at $4,000, or you can go even cheaper and roll with Kobe Bufkin of the Hawks. After missing a month with a toe injury, the first-round pick out of Michigan scored nine points and exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last two games.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
The Nets have let Cam Thomas carry their offense since making a coaching change at the All-Star Break, and for the most part, Thomas has shown he is up to the task. He has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projection of all shooting guards on Saturday’s slate and the highest Projected Plus/Minus of the options with salaries over $5,000.
Thomas leads the team with a 30.6% usage rate over his last 11 games since returning from injury. He produced 1.10 DraftKings points per minute in 35.2 minutes per game during that span and scored 22+ points in five straight. The Pistons have been an excellent matchup for opposing shooting guards, and the Nets have the second-highest pace differential on the slate. This should be a good spot for Cam to post a monster number, making it hard to look past his high ceiling on a slate where value makes his salary not too hard to include.
Value
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is the only shooting guard on Saturday’s slate with a better Projected Plus/Minus than Thomas. The Nuggets are also the only team with a better pace differential than the Hawks. KCP doesn’t get a ton of usage sometimes, but he typically plays plenty of minutes for Denver and should be able to find ways to return value in this up-tempo game.
With Jamal Murray out, KCP has been getting more opportunities on offense and has posted a few big games with 22 points against the Cavs and 16 points against the Clippers. He has at least nine points in seven of his last 10 games and had a +10.6 Plus/Minus in Thursday’s loss to the Clippers.
Fast Break
The Pistons will be without Cade Cunningham (knee) for a third straight game, so there will be more usage and production available for Malachi Flynn, who went off Wednesday, and Jaden Ivey, who had a big game on Friday.
Kelly Oubre Jr. has shown great upside and a high ceiling if he’s called upon to help the Sixers in an expanded role. With Maxey, Embiid, Nicolas Batum (foot), Tobias Harris (hamstring) and Mo Bamba (illness) all questionable, Oubre could end up in a starting role in a great matchup in Memphis. He’s too expensive unless someone else is out, but if the injury report breaks his way, he will have a high ceiling.
Bargain options at shooting guard that have upside are led by Lonnie Walker and Garrison Mathews, who bring solid production off the bench for the Nets and Hawks, respectively.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Without Murray, the Nuggets have been giving more work to Michael Porter Jr., who has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all small forwards on Saturday’s slate. He also has the second-highest ceiling, median, and floor projections at small forward.
On the season, Porter has produced 1.03 DraftKings points per minute with Murray off the floor, and his usage increases by 1.6 percentage points in that scenario. Porter had a great game with 15 points and 16 rebounds against the Spurs on Tuesday and fell just one rebound short of another double-double on Thursday against the Clippers.
Value
Dorian Finney-Smith has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all small forwards and has been getting extra work while Cameron Johnson (toe, doubtful) has been sidelined. Finney-Smith has played at least 30 minutes in four of his last six games and reached double-digit points in three of those four contests
DFS had 10 points in 36 minutes on Wednesday against the Pacers and has 30 projected minutes again in this matchup. He should be able to return value at just $4,400 if you opt to go cheaper here to spend up at other roster spots.
Fast Break
Mikal Bridges has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections of all small forwards on this slate. He’s a very solid play with a high ceiling against the Pistons, but he is more expensive than MPJ and has only reached 20 points once in his last seven games while deferring more to Thomas and Schroder.
Another solid option is the Hawks’ Bogdan Bogdanovic, who is a little over-priced according to our projections but has been able to deliver 16+ points in six of his last seven games while exceeding salary-based expectations in five of those contests.
If you want to go even cheaper than DFS at small forward, Troy Brown Jr. has played over 22 minutes in each of the two games on the Pistons’ current road trip and exceeded salary-based expectations in both games. At just $3,300, he doesn’t have to go off to end up a great option.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Since returning from injury, Jalen Johnson has showcased a great fantasy upside. The second-year forward has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections at power forward on this slate and the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position.
He had an impressive triple-double against the Pistons on Wednesday, finishing with 76 DraftKings points on 28 points, 14 rebounds, and 11 assists in 37 minutes. He’s clearly over his injury since he played 37 minutes the following night, finishing with 16 rebounds and 33 DraftKings points against the Mavericks.
The Hawks traded John Collins to open up playing time for Johnson, and he has proven to be a great option for them, producing 1.09 DraftKings points per minute. With Young off the floor, his production has jumped to 1.15 DraftKings points per minute, and since the All-Star Break, he has averaged 1.20 DraftKings points per minute in 13 games.
Value
The Grizzlies could get Jaren Jackson Jr. (quad) back on Saturday, but even if they do, there should still be room for Lamar Stevens to continue to return good value. With Jackson in the projections, Stevens still has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all power forwards and all centers.
Stevens has been very good for the Grizz since joining them at the trade deadline in a deal with the Celtics. He has averaged 1.00 DraftKings point per minute in 21.6 minutes per game since joining the team, but he has been even better lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in seven of his last 10 games with an Average Plus/Minus of +2.35 DraftKings points.
In Friday’s win over the Pistons, Stevens had 15 points and eight rebounds on his way to 32.5 DraftKings points in 28 minutes. He’ll have similar upside on Saturday’s slate with an even higher ceiling if JJJ remains sidelined.
Fast Break
Aaron Gordon has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his last seven games and was excellent against both the Clippers and Spurs earlier this week. Johnson’s ceiling may be a little higher, but Gordon is over $1,000 cheaper and also can produce plenty of points.
Troy Brown can slide to power forward as a good value play, or you could take a look at Noah Clowney of the Nets, who had a big game with 22 points and 10 boards in just 17 minutes against the Pacers on Wednesday. That kind of outburst should have earned the rookie more playing time for the rest of the season.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
If you can save in other spots, one of the top pay-up plays on the slate is Nikola Jokic. He has the highest salary on the slate but also brings the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all the players in action.
Jokic is coming off of three monster games. He had 26 points, 18 rebounds, and 16 assists last Sunday against the Cavaliers, and he followed that with 42 points, 16 rebounds, and six assists against Wemby and the Spurs on Tuesday. On Thursday, even in a loss to the Clippers, he posted 36 points, 17 rebounds and 10 assists in another monster triple-double.
He earned over 75 DraftKings points in each of those games, and he brings such a high ceiling that he’s exactly the kind of play you should be looking at once you’ve saved salary at other spots.
Value
On the other side of that matchup, Clint Capela has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his last seven games. He has double-digit rebounds in eight of his last nine games and usually chips in good defensive stats as well.
Over his last 10 games, Capela has averaged 1.27 DraftKings points per minute in 26.7 minutes per game. If you need a mid-range play at center, he has been very consistent and reliable while bringing a great floor and a high ceiling. He should be able to bounce back from a down game in Dallas on the second game of a back-to-back on Thursday.
Fast Break
Joel Embiid returned from his 29-game absence with 24 points, seven assists, six rebounds, and 45 DraftKings points in 29 minutes against the Thunder. He was questionable for Thursday’s game against the Heat and played through the tag, producing 29 points and 43.5 DraftKings points in 33 minutes. He is still a little over-priced at $11,100, especially in a game that may not stay competitive. Remember, he’s also questionable, so build around him only if you can confirm his availability before tip off.
Without Jackson and Brandon Clarke (rest) on Friday, Trey Jemison impressed with 17 points and 13 rebounds in 31 minutes against the Pistons. The rookie has exceeded salary-based expectations in three straight games and should get enough minutes even if Jackson returns to be a solid value at only $4,000.
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