The NBA has another big playoff slate this Saturday, with four games stretching throughout the day. The main DFS contests start early at 1:00 p.m. ET when the Cavs and Magic get the action started in Orlando with Game 4 of their series. The two top seeds are in action in the two middle games of the slate, as the Thunder visit the Pelicans and the Celtics try to beat the Heat in Miami. The final game of the night is the only series that could end on Saturday. The reigning champion will look to close out the Lakers after impressive wins in the first three games of the series.
This could be the last injury report of the season for the Lakers, so of course Anthony Davis (wrist) is questionable. Reggie Jackson (ankle) is questionable on the other side of the late game, but other than that, there aren’t many updates to watch for. As news breaks throughout the day, be sure to always refresh our models for the latest projections.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
A huge part of the Nuggets’ dominance in Round 1 has been Jamal Murray playing like a superstar. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards on Saturday’s slate and the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all players on the slate. Murray has the highest floor projection and the second-highest ceiling and median projection of all point guards on the slate behind only Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is the highest-priced point guard.
Murray has scored at least 20 points in each of the three games in this series. He had a huge double-double with 22 points and 10 assists in Game 1 and hit the game winner as part of his 20 points and five assists in Game 2. He had 22 points and nine assists in Game 3 while playing a series-high 41 minutes. If Jackson is sidelined, Murray might have to play that large of a workload again.
As good as his overall numbers have been, Murray still has plenty of room for improvement since he has a team-high 29.3% usage rate and has only shot 37.7% from the field. If he is more efficient, he can be even better in what could be his final game of Round 1. The Lakers still have no answer for Murray, who dominates his matchup with D’Angelo Russell. Murray’s Nuggets have the highest implied team total on Saturday’s slate, and their matchup also has the highest over/under.
Value
With Russell struggling and possibly checked out, Austin Reaves is a strong play to step into a more active role on Saturday night. Reaves has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at both point guard and shooting guard of the options with salaries under $6,000.
Reaves had his best game of the series in Game 3 as the series shifted to Los Angeles. He finished with 22 points in 41 minutes and exceeded salary-based expectations with 41.75 DraftKings points. He was typically more productive at home than on the road this season and will look to continue that trend in Game 4 in a true must-win game for the Lakers. Reaves has a projection of 37.8 minutes, and the Lakers need him to step up as a third scoring option, which would also make him a nice fantasy value in the backcourt.
Fast Break
Gilgeous-Alexander has the highest ceiling and median projections of all point guards and has been solid in the Thunder’s two wins to start the playoffs. He had 28 points in Game 1’s narrow win and 33 points in Game 2’s comfortable victory. In those two games, he has a 34.1% usage rate and has been able to produce 1.20 DraftKings points per minute. He’s a very solid play but costs a little more than Murray, which is the only reason I slightly prefer Murray on Saturday’s slate.
If the Pelicans are going to make this a series with SGA and the Thunder, they’ll need more from C.J. McCollum, who has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards on Saturday. McCollum has finished below salary-based expectations in all four of the Pelicans’ games in the playoffs and Play-In Tournament. With Zion Williamson (knee) out, McCollum should continue to get plenty of usage, but he hasn’t been able to deliver yet, making him a high-risk, high-upside play this Saturday.
There aren’t many bargain basement options at point guard this Saturday, but if you have to go cheap, Cole Anthony has the best Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards with salaries under $5,000. Payton Pritchard is another cheap play with good upside, but his role has been reduced in the playoffs since the Celtics are fully healthy.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
With Jimmy Butler (knee) and Terry Rozier (neck) out, Tyler Herro will continue to have to carry the load for the Heat. He has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection of all shooting guards on Saturday’s slate, and he brings the fifth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position.
Herro has a surprisingly low 22.5% usage rate through the first two games of the series, but he has an impressive 36.7% assist rate and a 63.1% true shooting percentage. He only had 11 points in Game 1’s blowout loss, but he bounced back along with the rest of his team and had a much better Game 2. He exceeded salary-based expectations in that game with 56.26 DraftKings points on 24 points and 14 assists.
The Heat were making all their shots in Game 2, and Herro ran a very efficient offense overall. The team will hope for more of the same in Game 3, but Herro may have to step into a more active scoring role if his teammates’ shots aren’t dropping. Herro has a high ceiling and a safe floor since he’ll be asked to carry Miami’s offense for as long as his star teammates are unavailable.
Value
For the Thunder, Josh Giddey finished the season strong and established himself as a solid contributor, averaging 15.8 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 6.6 assists in 27.1 minutes per game over the final month of the regular season. He has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all shooting guards on Saturday’s slate and is a strong mid-range target along with Reaves at both guard positions.
Giddey had a down game to start the playoffs, finishing with just two points in 20 minutes, but he bounced back with a much stronger Game 2. He had 13 points, six boards, and three assists to produce 24.5 DraftKings points in 26 minutes. Our projections have him right around similar production levels in Game 3, although he always brings the upside to go off in multiple categories. He has been able to fill in with more production when asked to take on more work, so his ceiling is high depending on exactly how the game plays out this afternoon against the Pelicans.
Fast Break
Brandon Ingram has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of shooting guards on Saturday as he continues to work his way back while trying to carry most of the scoring load vacated by Zion. Ingram has only produced 0.79 DraftKings points per minute so far this series, but the Pelicans will need him to post a big game like he did against the Kings in the Play-In Tournament, which was his most recent home game. He had 41 DraftKings points in 37 minutes, and he has the ceiling for a similar performance on Saturday.
The two Eastern Conference games have lower point totals, so they don’t have quite as many fantasy options compared to the Western Conference matchups. Derrick White is one play that makes sense from the East, though, since the Celtics need him to step up in Game 3. He averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute on the season but has only managed 0.83 DraftKings points per minute in this series. He had 20 points in Game 1 but only 13 in Game 2. His role is a little more limited with everyone healthy, but he has a high ceiling if he finds his playoff form from last season.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all shooting guards on Saturday, but he has fallen short of salary-based expectations in each of the three games so far in this series. KCP will always give you plenty of minutes and a bargain salary, but his low-usage role can lead to inconsistent production. I prefer Reaves or Giddey if you have the salary, but KCP is a solid option under $5,000 at shooting guard.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Once again (and maybe for the last time this season), the obvious small forward play on this slate is LeBron James. Just because it’s obvious doesn’t mean it’s wrong, though, since James continues to deliver great stat lines despite his team’s struggles. He once again has the top median, ceiling, and floor projection of all small forwards and also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position.
In the first three games of the series, LeBron has averaged 1.40 DraftKings points per minute in 40 minutes per game. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of the three games with over 25 points in each contest. He had a double-double of 26 points and 12 assists in 38 minutes in Game 2 Monday for an impressive 64 DraftKings points and fell just one assist short of another double-double in Game 3.
Despite his team’s struggles, James continues to be a great fantasy producer, and with his back against the wall, he should come out with another big game on Saturday night. The Lakers obviously have major issues, but LeBron’s production isn’t one of them.
Value
Franz Wagner has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of the small forwards in action this Saturday. He has the third-highest median and floor projections at the position behind only LeBron and Jayson Tatum.
Wagner has exceeded salary-based expectations in two of the three games in this series, falling just short in Game 2. He averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute in 35 minutes per game. Wagner had 16 points and eight assists in Orlando’s Game 3 win, serving as a great facilitator while Jalen Suggs and Paolo Banchero did most of the scoring. Wagner’s game is versatile enough that he can produce in multiple game scripts, whether scoring himself or creating for his teammates. He’s a very solid mid-range value play as the young Magic try to level their series with the Cavs on Saturday.
Fast Break
It’s definitely worth noticing that Jalen Williams now has point guard and small forward eligibility on DraftKings after being a power forward for most of the season. Williams has the third-highest ceiling projection of all small forwards on this slate and has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of the two games in this series, posting 36.25 and 39.25 DraftKings points in the Thunder’s two wins. He’s a great mid-range play with a high ceiling and plenty of versatility next to SGA in the Thunder’s lineup.
Jaime Jaquez Jr. has a team-high 26.8% usage rate in Miami’s two games against the Celtics and should stay very involved for as long as Butler and Rozier are sidelined. The rookie has been impressive all season when asked to step into a larger role and has averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute during the regular season and playoffs with Butler and Rozier off the floor.
If you are looking to go really cheap at small forward, Haywood Highsmith and Naji Marshall are both getting enough minutes to return bargain value from their salaries under $4,000. They are both high-risk options since their usage is uncertain, but they do bring significant upside for their very affordable salaries.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Power forward is loaded on Saturday, with James, Jayson Tatum and Paolo Banchero all bringing elite upside. Banchero had a monster game in Game 3, and he projects as a better play than Tatum on Saturday since he will have to continue to carry the load for the Magic and comes almost $1,000 cheaper than Tatum. Banchero has the third-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at the position and the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus.
After scoring over 20 points in each of the first two games of the series, Banchero took it to another level and went off with 31 points and 14 boards for 61.5 DraftKings points in Game 3. He only played 29.2 minutes in that game since he turned it into a blowout. He has a team-high 33.1% usage rate in this series, with a production rate of 1.18 DraftKings points per minute.
The second-year forward is growing into a superstar right in front of our eyes this postseason, and he can help his Magic level the series with another big performance on Saturday. The opportunities will be there for Paolo, and so far, he has proven he’s ready to rise to the occasion.
Value
The Nuggets’ power forwards have both been good values in their series with the Lakers, so Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter both make solid mid-range plays on Saturday.
Gordon has slightly better Projected Plus/Minus in this matchup coming off his big 29-point, 15-rebound performance in Game 3. Gordon had 54.75 DraftKings points in that game and has averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute in the series
Porter has produced 1.06 DraftKings points per minute in the series and has been very consistent. He has exceeded salary-based expectations by over 7.0 DraftKings points in each game of the series, with at least 19 points in each contest. He also had a big double-double on Thursday in Game 3, totaling 38.5 DraftKings points on 20 points, 10 boards and three assists.
Either of the two forwards can be a good option on Saturday, but if you have the salary for just one, I’d lean slightly towards MPJ due to his consistency. You can also include both as they showed us on Thursday.
Fast Break
It’s hard not to include Tatum as a top play since he showed his upside with a triple-double and 58 DraftKings points in Game 1. He also had 28 points and eight boards in Game 2 and is averaging 1.24 DraftKings points per minute in the series. He has a sky-high ceiling and is a great play if you have the salary. The only reason he isn’t the top stud is that his salary is so much higher than Banchero’s.
The Magic got good games from Moritz Wagner and Jonathan Isaac earlier in this series. They haven’t been consistent from game to game, but each has good bargain upside.
Rui Hachimura has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all power forwards with salaries under $5,000, although he has yet to make much of an impact in this series. Highsmith and Marshall (discussed above) are good plays under $4,000 who are also eligible at power forward.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Ultimately, the Lakers have no answer for Nikola Jokic, who has had a great series so far and looks ready to lead the Nuggets on another big playoff run. He has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections of any player on Saturday’s slate and the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate as well.
During the regular season, Jokic crushed the Lakers and Anthony Davis, and he has continued that dominance in the first three games of this series. Jokic has averaged 1.65 DraftKings points per minute in 39.7 minutes per game in the series. He had a 27-point triple-double in Game 2 that resulted in 75 DraftKings points and fell just one assist short of another triple-double in Game 3, finishing with 58.25 DraftKings points.
Not only is Jokic’s ceiling incredibly high, but he has also been remarkably consistent. He has either a double-double or a triple-double in 17 straight games dating back to the regular season and almost always delivers on his high salary-based expectations.
Value
The eight teams on the board this Saturday bring plenty of high-priced, high-production centers. While Jokic and Davis have the top-two Projected Plus/Minus, Jarrett Allen is right behind them and has been playing very well in the postseason for the Cavs.
In the three games of this series, Allen averaged 1.32 DraftKings points per minute while playing 32.7 minutes per game. He exceeded salary-based expectations with big double-doubles in each of the first two games of the series but only played 24 minutes in Game 3’s blowout loss. He still managed 15 points and eight rebounds, and he would have likely had a third double-double if the game stayed competitive.
His ceiling isn’t as high as the elite plays of Jokic and Davis, but at his $7,000 salary, he’s a strong mid-range option.
Fast Break
Rookie Chet Holmgren has impressed in the first two games of the series for the Thunder, averaging 1.41 DraftKings points per minute. He had a strong double-double in Game 1 and dropped 26 points in Game 2, showing there are multiple paths to success for him in this matchup with the Pelicans. New Orleans misses Zion in the frontcourt, and Holmgren is taking advantage of the matchup.
Jonas Valanciunas had 13 points and 20 rebounds while playing 29 minutes in Game 1 and followed that with 19 points and seven boards in 23 minutes in Game 2. Without Zion, his minutes and usage are up, and his $6,000 salary is one of the cheapest of the starting centers on Saturday’s slate.
The cheap options are limited with so many high-priced centers in play. Wagner, Isaac and Wendell Carter Jr. are the best options under $5,000, but it’s tricky to figure out which option will step up in Game 4. Another punt play to consider at center since he is getting some minutes is the Nuggets’ Peyton Watson, who has played at least 12 minutes in each game. He brings volatile upside depending on if the Lakers keep Game 4 close.
