The NBA playoffs tip off on Saturday with four games spread throughout the day. The action starts at 1:00 p.m. ET, so be sure to get your lineups in early for the full slate of contests. Each of the four games is Game 1 of the best-of-seven first-round matchup.
There are two games from each conference. The first game is in the Eastern Conference, as the Cavs host the Magic, and in the third game of the day, the Sixers visit Madison Square Garden to take on the Knicks. In the two games from the West, the Timberwolves face the Suns, and in the nightcap, the Nuggets start their title defense by welcoming in the Lakers.
Overall, it’s a pretty clean injury report, but always stay tuned for updates. Before game time, refresh the NBA Models for the latest adjustments.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
In his matchup with the 76ers, Jalen Brunson has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all point guards as well as the highest Projected Plus/Minus and most Pts/Sal at the position. He is the most expensive option at a stacked position, but he is underpriced according to our projections because he carries such a huge part of the workload for the Knicks’ offense.
Brunson finished the season with an average of 1.31 DraftKings points per minute for the season, but over the last month, he cranked that up to 1.47 DraftKings points per minute. He exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his final seven games of the regular season, averaging 1.54 DraftKings points per minute while playing 38.3 minutes per game. In those seven games, he had a 37.6% usage rate and 39.2% assist rate. With so much scoring and creating responsibility, Brunson has both a very high ceiling and a very high floor in this matchup with Philly. He has a slate-leading 36.35 usage projection on Saturday.
In his four games against the Sixers this season, Brunson averaged 22.3 points, 7.8 assists, and 40.9 DraftKings points per game. This is definitely a matchup that plays in his favor, and Brunson has a history of coming up large in the playoffs. He and the Knicks will look to make an early statement against the Sixers in Game 1 on Saturday, and he’s a great place to start building your fantasy lineups.
Value
While Brunson has the best Projected Plus/Minus, Mike Conley is the best salary saver at the position according to our projections. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus coming into the Wolves’ home game against the Suns. Conley is affordable at under $6,000 and allows you to spend in other spots while still getting a starter who logs plenty of minutes.
Conley doesn’t run the show like Brunson does at point guard, but he has been a great running mate in the backcourt for Anthony Edwards. The veteran scored double-digit points in seven of his final nine games of the regular season and exceeded salary-based expectations in six of those contests. He averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute during that span while logging 28.6 minutes per game. He was one of the few bright spots in the Timberwolves’ regular-season finale loss to Phoenix, knocking down four three-pointers and finishing with 17 points, four boards and two assists.
In his established role as starting point guard, Conley is fairly low risk and should get enough usage to return solid value even though Minnesota’s offense will flow through Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns primarily.
Fast Break
Nuggets point guard Jamal Murray matches the most Pro Trends of any point guard on this slate, and his Nuggets have the biggest Pace Differential on the board as they take on the Lakers. They also have the highest implied team total on the slate. Murray scored 20+ points in each of his last four games despite playing limited minutes and produced an impressive 1.61 DraftKings points per minute over his five most recent contests. He ranks second behind Brunson in both ceiling projection and Projected Plus/Minus.
On the other side of that matchup, D’Angelo Russell is a solid mid-range target after averaging 1.03 DraftKings points per minute in his 18 games since March 1. He led the team in minutes over that stretch with a 21.8% usage rate and 24.3% assist rate. In those 18 games, he exceeded salary-based expectations 10 times, averaging 19.0 points and 6.3 assists per game.
If you want to go cheaper than Conley, Jalen Suggs of the Magic has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of point guards with salaries under $5,000. He had 18 points in four straight games before scoring just four points in the regular season finale against the Bucks. His streaky outside shooting makes him boom-or-bust but gives him a high ceiling.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Anthony Edwards has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all shooting guards on Saturday’s slate despite some disappointing performances down the stretch as he played through illness. He still has huge upside after establishing himself as an elite fantasy option throughout the season.
Edwards produced 1.25 DraftKings points per minute this season and carried the Timberwolves almost single-handedly while KAT was sidelined. Edwards should be rested up and over his illness after getting almost a week off, so look for him to be fresh and ready for a big game on Saturday. If Minnesota wants to make a deep run in the playoffs, they’ll need him to return to his form from mid-March when he was more efficient shooting and contributed in every category across the box score.
He has huge potential and a good playoff track record, so our projections expect him to get back on track as the playoffs open against the Suns.
Value
The top value at shooting guard also comes from the Suns-Wolves matchup. Bradley Beal has the top Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal at the position and comes in with strong recent form.
After battling a variety of injuries for much of the season, Beal struggled to carve out a role alongside Devin Booker and Kevin Durant. However, over the final few weeks of the season, the group seemed to gel very well as the Suns rose to the No. 6 seed by going 10-4 over their final 14 games, including two wins against the Wolves. Beal scored at least 19 points and exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his final five games of the regular season, averaging 1.28 DraftKings points per minute in those five games with a 24.7% usage rate. On the season, he produced 1.02 DraftKings points per minute, so he trended in the right direction coming down the stretch.
Beal, Durant, and Booker will have to find the right mix from game to game as different stars step up for the Suns. Beal is by far the most affordable of the trio, though, and he should be able to at least return value with the potential for a monster game if he goes off and becomes the focal point of the game plan.
Fast Break
Donte DiVincenzo helped the Knicks earn the second seed in the East as a nice complement to Brunson. He scored double-digit points in each of his last 40 games while averaging 20.2 points per contest and 0.97 DraftKings points per minute in 36.6 minutes per game. His streaky shooting and high minutes and usage give him a high ceiling against the Sixers.
Grayson Allen established himself as a key piece of the Suns’ core while filling in for Beal, Booker, and Durant at times this season. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard and the sixth-highest at small forward on Saturday’s slate. He may fade a bit into the background if the stars get most of the usage, but he did score 23 points and 20 points in the Suns’ two wins over the Wolves in the last couple of weeks, exceeding salary-based expectations by a significant margin in each win.
Former Laker Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position behind only Beal. He typically logs plenty of minutes and is an opportunistic scorer even though he isn’t the focus of the offense. He only faced his former team once this season and dropped 20 points and 31.5 DraftKings points against them.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
The Lakers got a win in the first round of the Play-In Tournament over the Pelicans, which gave LeBron James and Anthony Davis a few days off. Both stars are listed as probable and will have to be ready to try and carry the load for L.A. in the playoffs. LeBron has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at small forward and the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position as well.
He has shown all season that he has another gear when he needs it even though he is the oldest player in the league. Showing no signs of slowing down, he exceeded salary-based expectations in 11 of his last 16 games and finished with 23 points, nine assists, and nine rebounds over 41 minutes in the Lakers win on Tuesday.
The King averaged an impressive 1.44 DraftKings points per minute for the season and surged to the finish with 1.50 DraftKings points per minute over the last month. In his three games this season against the Nuggets, James averaged 24.0 points, 7.0 rebounds, 7.0 assists, and 47.3 DraftKings points per game.
“Playoff LeBron” is impossible to pick against, and while I don’t think the Lakers will be able to overcome the Nuggets in the grind of a long series, James should put up big numbers as he carries the load in Game 1. He matches a slate-high 15 Pro Trends
Value
Franz Wagner has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus and the fourth-highest ceiling projection of Saturday’s small forwards. He matches the second most Pro Trends at the position as well with eight.
Wagner’s salary has been sliding over the last few weeks, but his production came back around in the final few games of the season. On the year, he averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute while playing 32.2 minutes per game in 71 contests. After a rough patch late in March, he turned things around and exceeded salary-based expectations in four of his last five games, averaging 1.20 DraftKings points per minute. He scored at least 20 points in five of his last six.
Wagner averaged 34.5 DraftKings points per game on the season and 30.9 DraftKings points in his four matchups with the Cavs. Even though Cleveland plays great defense, Wagner should be able to return value at just over $6,000 at small forward.
Fast Break
Another solid mid-range option at small forward is Michael Porter Jr., who has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position. Porter scored at least 11 points in each of his last 19 games, averaging 17.5 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 1.6 assists per game and producing 1.01 DraftKings points per minute.
OG Anunoby scored 11+ points in four straight games to finish the season and logged 43 minutes in the regular season finale against the Bulls. His large workload and good upside make him a good option at only $5,000. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all small forwards with salaries under $6,000 on Saturday.
If you are looking to go extremely cheap but still get a starter who plays significant minutes, Jaden McDaniels can be a good option to consider. McDaniels started in 71 of his 72 games this season, averaging 29.2 minutes per contest and producing 0.67 DraftKings points per minute. He only has 16.1% usage and isn’t a key part of the offense, but he does get plenty of minutes and can explode for occasional outbursts of scoring.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
The Lakers will have to rely heavily on LeBron and Anthony Davis if they want to make a deep playoff run. Like LeBron, Davis has been very good when available this season. He has the highest median and ceiling projections at power forward and the highest Projected Plus/Minus as well, just outpacing LeBron in each of those spots. Davis has a lower usage projection and floor projection than LeBron, but his ceiling is higher mostly due to his great rebound rate.
On the season, Davis averaged 1.49 DraftKings points per minute with a 27.2% usage rate. He produced 64 double-doubles, including 11 in his last 12 games, with the only exception being a game he left early due to injury. In those 12 games, Davis averaged 25.9 points and 14.5 rebounds while adding 2.0 blocks and 1.3 steals per game for an impressive 1.55 DraftKings points per minute.
Davis will have a huge matchup against the Nuggets in this series, and he averaged 22 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 46.3 DraftKings points per game in three meetings this season.
Value
On the other side of that matchup in the late game, Aaron Gordon has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all power forwards with salaries under $6,000 and the fourth-highest overall at the position. He did miss a couple of games earlier this month with a foot injury but is not on the injury report for Saturday’s contest.
Gordon averaged a nicely balanced 14.3 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 5.0 assists in 30.9 minutes per game over his last eight contests, producing 1.07 DraftKings points per minute with a 17.1% usage rate. He has developed into a great complement to Murray and Nikola Jokic, and his continued consistency makes him a good fantasy option and a key part of the Nuggets’ hopes for a second straight title.
Fast Break
Paolo Banchero had a breakthrough season in his second year for the Magic, earning his first All-Star appearance and carrying his team to the postseason. He finished with a good push, scoring 20+ points in seven straight games to finish the regular season. In his last two games, he posted two strong double-doubles with 15 and 10 rebounds along with seven assists against the 76ers and the Bucks. Over his last 12 games, he produced 1.21 DraftKings points per minute with a team-high 30.9% usage rate. On Saturday’s slate, he ranks behind only LeBron and AD in median, ceiling, and floor projections.
Since the injury to Julius Randle (shoulder), Josh Hart has become a great mid-range play for the Knicks. Hart had three double-doubles in his last four games and flashed scoring upside by dropping 31 points against the Kings earlier in April. Even with Anunoby back in the mix, Hart is playing huge minutes for the Knicks, which makes him a very solid mid-range target against the 76ers.
The Magic have been getting good value production off the bench from Jonathan Isaac, who is still only $4,000. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all players on the entire slate with salaries under $5,000. He played over 26 minutes in each of the last two games of the season and out-produced salary-based expectations in four of his last six. The Magic still carefully managed his minutes, but when he has been given more time, he has found ways to contribute great value.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
The highest median, ceiling, and floor projections on Saturday’s entire slate come from Nikola Jokic, who has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position even though his salary is over $11,000.
He had at least a double-double in each of his last 14 games with four triple-doubles as well. He averaged 28.1 points, 13.0 rebounds, and 8.4 assists over that stretch, and he should also be well-rested and ready to lead the Nuggets back to the playoffs.
Jokic averaged 1.76 DraftKings points per minute this season, the second-highest on the slate behind only Joel Embiid, who still seems to be at less than 100% after working his way back from injury. Jokic is a safer play than Embiid and brings a higher ceiling than Davis and LeBron.
He has absolutely smashed the Lakers this season, averaging 63.5 DraftKings points per game on 29.3 points, 12.0 rebounds, and 9.0 assists in the three games he has played against them.
Value
The Knicks will have to try and slow down Joel Embiid, who is formidable even in less-than-top form. Isaiah Hartenstein will draw the primary assignment and has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all centers on the slate. His salary is barely over $5,000, and he is projected to play almost 30 minutes since coach Tom Thibodeau relies heavily on his starters.
Hartenstein sat out the Knicks’ second-to-last game of the season for injury management, but he exceeded salary-based expectations in each of the last four games he played and in seven of his last 11. Hartenstein averaged 1.03 DraftKings points per minute on the season and 1.17 DraftKings points per minute over those 11 games.
Of all players on the whole slate with salaries under $6,000, Hartenstein has the highest Projected Plus/Minus and the second-highest ceiling projection.
Fast Break
Embiid has been very productive since re-joining the Sixers. He played 38 minutes in Tuesday’s win over the Heat, finishing with 23 points, 15 rebounds, and 52.25 DraftKings points. He is averaging 1.71 DraftKings points per minute since returning, which is still exceptional even though it’s slightly below his incredible pace from before his injury. While he is officially questionable, it would be shocking if he didn’t play.
Jarrett Allen has been solid all season for the Cavs and is a strong mid-range target in their matchup with the Magic. Before playing reduced minutes in the meaningless regular-season finale, Allen had four straight double-doubles including an impressive 29-point, 13-board performance in the final week of the season. He’s cheaper than the elite plays but still brings a very high ceiling.
Isaac is the top punt play at center, and Hartenstein is the top value, but if you are looking for another dark horse cheap play, check out Mitchell Robinson of the Knicks, who is only $3,700. Robinson had 15 points and eight rebounds against the Nets last Friday in his final full game of the regular season. He has been very volatile since his return, but the Knicks may need him down low against Embiid. He’s a swing-for-the-fences play, but he has nice potential GPP upside for an option under $4,000.
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