The Conference Semifinals continue on Monday night with another doubleheader. The top seed in each conference is back in action to start the week as the Celtics look to take a commanding 3-1 series lead in Cleveland, and the Thunder try to level their series 2-2. Contests lock at 7:00 p.m. ET when the Celtics and Cavs tip off in the early game.
There are a few injury situations to monitor in Monday’s matchups. While Kristaps Porzingis remains sidelined for the Celtics, Donovan Mitchell (calf) and Jarrett Allen (rib) are questionable for the Cavs. Luka Doncic (knee) is also questionable as he continues to play through a sprained knee. It would be surprising if either Luka or Mitchell sits out the game, but they will likely be at less than 100%. As injury updates come in during the day, be sure to refresh the player models for the latest updates.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
With Luka Doncic playing hurt and so expensive, I’m still building around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. SGA has the second-highest ceiling, median, and floor projections on the entire slate and also brings the highest Pts/Sal and Projected Plus/Minus of any player on the slate.
Even in his team’s two losses, Gilgeous-Alexander has posted big games. He had 33 points, 12 assists, and eight rebounds for 67 DraftKings points in Game 2 followed by 31 points, 10 boards, and six assists for 64.5 DraftKings points in Game 3. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in every game in this series and six straight overall.
In the postseason, SGA has averaged 1.39 DraftKings points per minute in 38.7 minutes per game with a team-high 32.9% usage rate. He has over 59 DraftKings points in every game of this series and will again have to carry the load for the Thunder, who badly need a win on Monday to avoid going down 3-1. Look for Gilgeous-Alexander to be extremely aggressive and post another monster stat line.
Value
After an ugly Game 2, Jrue Holiday bounced back on Saturday with his best fantasy game of the playoffs. On Monday’s slate, he has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at point guard and the highest of all players on the slate with a salary under $6,000.
Holiday scored a playoff-high 18 points on Saturday and chipped in eight rebounds and five assists as well. He has averaged 0.72 DraftKings points per minute in the postseason but is playing huge minutes at 35.6 minutes per game. He usually produces strong non-scoring numbers due to his defensive focus, and he can be a great fantasy option when he’s also involved in the offense like he was on Saturday. If you pass on the high-priced guards, Holiday is a solid value to consider.
Fast Break
Doncic has not been bad at all while playing through his injury, averaging 1.36 DraftKings points per minute in the playoffs. He has five double-doubles in his last six games including each of his last two. However, he hasn’t quite been able to live up to his huge salary. Doncic always has high usage and a high ceiling but he’s also high risk since he’s not at full strength but still so expensive.
Especially if Mitchell is limited or out, Caris LeVert and Darius Garland will have to step up. LeVert is the more affordable of the two options and has been playing better recently. He has scored 15+ points in three of his last four games and usually adds good non-scoring contributions as well. In the regular season, LeVert averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute with Mitchell off the floor, while Garland produced 1.07 DraftKings points per minute in that scenario, and his usage increased over two percentage points to a team-high 28.4%.
Payton Pritchard is still a solid value at $4,000 although his role fluctuates depending on game flow. He had double-digit points and exceeded salary-based expectations in each of the first two games of this series but had just five points and 13.25 DraftKings points on Saturday. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards with salaries under $5,500.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
With Mitchell’s status uncertain and his salary up to $9,000, Jaylen Brown makes more sense as a stud play on Monday night. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position in addition to the second-highest median and floor projections. He has scored 25 points or more in three of his last four games in the playoffs and had 28 points and 45.75 DraftKings points in Saturday’s win.
Brown actually leads the Celtics in usage rate this postseason at 30.8% and has produced 1.10 DraftKings points per minute in 34.4 minutes per game. He played 41 minutes on Saturday and his 28 points were a big improvement on his 19 points in Game 2. While Jayson Tatum had gotten more of the attention for Boston’s success, Brown has been very impressive throughout the postseason and has been coming out very aggressive early in games. Look for him to do the same on Monday night, and if he isn’t in a matchup with Mitchell, he’ll have even more of an advantage.
Value
As has regularly been the case in the playoffs, Derrick White has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all shooting guards on the slate this Monday. He has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate and the highest of all players with salaries under $7,000. White can work well at either guard spot and produce a high ceiling from his mid-range salary.
In the postseason, White is averaging 0.99 DraftKings points per minute in 33.6 minutes per game, but he has flashed a much higher ceiling when he’s on top of his game. He had 38 points and 57 DraftKings points in Game 4 of Round 1 against the Heat and had 25 points on his way to 37.25 DraftKings points in Game 1 of this series with the Cavs. While he has been quieter in the last two games, he continues to get plenty of opportunities and contributes very efficiently to everything Boston does on offense.
During the regular season, White averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute, but that number jumped to 1.07 DraftKings points per minute, while his usage jumped over three percentage points to 21.9% without his teammate Porzingis available. Especially with those extra opportunities, White is a strong play at this salary with a high ceiling.
Fast Break
If Mitchell plays at full strength, he has the highest ceiling of all shooting guards since he has to carry so much workload for the Cavs. In the playoffs, he has a 34.0% usage rate and has averaged 1.20 DraftKings points per minute. Mitchell has exceeded salary-based expectations in five straight games dating back to the series with the Magic, with over 50 DraftKings points in each game. His injury makes him higher risk but he still has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections at the position.
Kyrie Irving is also a very expensive play that has a good ceiling and high risk. He had 22 points and seven assists in Game 3 and hit multiple key shots down the stretch. He fell just short of salary-based expectations, though, and has only exceeded them twice in his last eight games. In the postseason, he has produced 1.06 DraftKings points per minute with a 23.8% usage rate.
At only $3,500, Isaiah Joe has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all shooting guards. He chipped in 13 points off the bench in Game 3 and has exceeded salary-based expectations in two of the three games in this series. He brings instant firepower off the OKC bench with his abilities from long range, so he has the potential to go off as a great value play if he comes in and hits shots like he did on Saturday afternoon.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
In Game 3 when the Celtics needed him, Jayson Tatum stepped up with his best fantasy game of the playoffs. He has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections of all small forwards and all power forwards on Monday’s slate and also brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus at forward and the third-highest on the whole slate.
Tatum turned things around after falling short of salary-based expectations in four straight games by producing 62.26 DraftKings points on Saturday on 33 points, 13 rebounds, and six assists in 42 minutes. In the postseason, he has averaged 1.27 DraftKings points per minute with a 29.1% usage rate. He has deferred to his teammates a little more than the other stars on the slate, but on Saturday, he showed he can still seize a game and fill up the stat sheet when he needs to.
Tatum will look to help the Celtics take full control of the series with a 3-1 lead headed home with a win on Monday night. He has been huge on the road in the playoffs for the last few postseasons, and he has a sky-high ceiling again on Monday, as he leads the very effective Celtics’ offense.
Value
If Mitchell needs help carrying the load for the Cavs, Max Strus could be one of the best options to pick up some scoring slack. With Mitchell off the court during the regular season, Strus’s usage jumped more than any of his teammates’. He averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute without Mitchell, and his usage increased to 19.9%.
Strus always brings a high ceiling since he can get hot and fill it up from long range, but he hasn’t had a monster game yet in the playoffs. He has been playing big minutes at 34.8 minutes per game but has only produced 0.55 DraftKings points per minute. Strus did reach double-digit points in four of his last six games but only had six points in Saturday’s Game 3 loss. He has the potential for much more if the Cavs need more help on offense.
Fast Break
For the Thunder, Jalen Williams continues to be a very solid secondary option and has been very consistent all postseason, scoring between 16 and 24 points in each contest and producing between 34 and 46 DraftKings points. He has averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute with a 24.2% usage rate. The Thunder will need him to step up alongside SGA on Monday, especially with Josh Giddey continuing to struggle.
Williams’ teammate Luguentz Dort has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward and the highest of all the options with salaries under $7,000. He has been right around his salary-based expectations for most of the series, and he has averaged 0.62 DraftKings points per minute in the playoffs since his focus is typically on the defensive end.
Tim Hardaway, Jr. and Josh Green have each flashed upside in this series for the Mavs. Hardaway had 17 points in 19 minutes in Game 2 while Green had 11 points in Game 1 and again in Game 2. They both have bargain upside from under $4,000, with Green having a slightly higher Projected Plus/Minus.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
The Mavericks acquired power forward P.J. Washington at the trade deadline from the Hornets, and he has been a great fit for the offense. He has the third-highest ceiling projection and the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all power forwards on Monday.
Washington averaged 0.82 DraftKings points per minute during the regular season with the Mavs and has continued his success in the postseason, producing 0.84 DraftKings points per minute. He went off in Game 2, scoring 29 points with 11 rebounds for 58.75 DraftKings points. He followed that with 27 points, six boards, and 40 DraftKings points on Saturday.
In his nine playoff games, Washington has scored double-digit points eight times and has exceeded salary-based expectations in three of his last four. While it seems unlikely Washington stays quite so scalding from the field, he still brings nice upside for a play under $6,000. He has shown good consistency throughout the playoffs, which makes him relatively low risk, and he also brings an elite ceiling.
Value
Without Porzingis, Al Horford has had to step into a much larger role for the Celtics, and he has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus and the second-highest ceiling projection of the power forwards on Monday’s slate behind only his teammate Tatum.
On Saturday, Horford played a postseason-high 39 minutes but only produced 13.75 DraftKings points since he only took one field goal attempt (which he made, for what it’s worth). His usage rate in the playoffs is just 11.7%, but for Saturday’s game, it was an amazingly low 1.6%. He’ll probably get more shots than that on Monday in Game 4 and also continue to contribute in all his other ways.
Horford can be a great value with so many minutes coming his way, and he should continue to contribute for as long as Porzingis is out.
Fast Break
Evan Mobley has the second-highest median and floor projections at power forward on Monday, but he’s much more expensive than Washington or Horford. He was instrumental in the Cavs’ win in Game 2 with 29 points, 10 boards, and 49 DraftKings points, but he only had 17 points and eight boards for 29 DraftKings points in Game 3. He could also lose some usage and time when Jarrett Allen (rib) returns. He’s a boom-or-bust play that works in GPP but hasn’t been as consistent as more affordable plays.
Mobley’s teammate Isaac Okoro scored double-digit points in each of the first two games of this series but only managed two points in Game 3. His salary dipped to $3,800, which makes him an interesting bargain play, especially if Mitchell is limited or out and the Cavs need someone to help pick up the scoring slack.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
At center, Thunder rookie Chet Holmgren brings the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections in addition to the highest Projected Plus/Minus and the most Pts/Sal at the position. He is the only center projected for usage over 20%, more than both Mobley and Washington, who have center eligibility.
Holmgren produced multiple blocks in each game of this series and exceeded salary-based expectations in two of the three games. His best performance came in Game 1, with 19 points and seven rebounds on his way to 39.75 DraftKings points in 31 minutes. After a down Game 2, he had 13 points, eight boards, and four blocks for 37 DraftKings points in 35 minutes on Saturday.
In the postseason, Chet has averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute and exceeded salary-based expectations in four of seven contests. He is the best pay-up play in the middle on Monday, especially given his block rate so far in this series.
Value
Against Holmgren, the Mavs continue to rotate Daniel Gafford and rookie Dereck Lively. Gafford played well in the first two games of the series, but Lively stepped up in Game 3. Both have definite potential in Game 4, but Lively looks better in our projections since his salary is much lower at just $4,200.
Lively had 12 points and eight rebounds for 23 DraftKings points in Game 3 and has typically been more productive at home this season, which is common for NBA rookies. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at center behind just Horford and Holmgren on this slate, so he is again a strong value option to consider.
If you have the salary available, Gafford’s projections are slightly higher across the board after posting 42.25 DraftKings points in Game 1 and 27.25 DraftKings points in Game 2. He played fewer minutes in Game 3, and that’s always a possibility in such an even timeshare. He will likely have lower ownership than Lively, though, so this might be a good spot to pay a little more to get some leverage.
Fast Break
Jarrett Allen was playing very well for the Cavs before suffering his rib injury, producing 1.28 DraftKings points per minute in the playoffs. Whenever he returns, he’ll be a good play, although his $6,800 salary does bring added risk if his minutes are limited after such a long layoff.
If you have to go cheap at the position, Jaylin Williams and Luke Kornet have each had their moments as backups off the bench in this series. Dean Wade is also an interesting play after returning from his extended layoff with five points and 15.75 DraftKings points in 17 minutes in Game 3. Wade memorably torched the Celtics in the regular season, so playing him under $4,000 is a high-risk play that could pay off.
