On Monday, the NBA tips off the final week of the regular season with a light slate of just two games. It’s a quick breather before a spring to the finish that includes 10 games on both Tuesday and Wednesday and all 30 teams in action on Friday and Sunday to close out the season. Even with just four teams on the slate on Monday, though, there are some great fantasy options to consider. Only the Kings are finishing out a back-to-back set of games, while none of these four teams are scheduled to play on Tuesday. However, even without many back-to-backs in play, there is still injury uncertainty in multiple rotations. Be sure to check back on availability and for the latest updates to the projections before tip-off.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
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Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Cade Cunningham has the highest median and ceiling projections on the entire slate and the second-highest floor projections behind only Domantas Sabonis (discussed below). Cade just came back from a six-game absence but is in a good spot against the Kings.
In his return, he had 44.25 DraftKings points on 25 points, nine rebounds and four assists against the Grizzlies. He shook off the rust while shooting just 9-of-24 from the field, but still led the team in scoring despite playing only 28 minutes.
He should be back to a full workload Monday and has a projection of 36 minutes. On the season, he’s producing an elite 50.6 DraftKings points per game and 1.45 DraftKings points per minute. If you have the salary available to pay up for a stud, he’s a great option to build around on Monday.
Value
The Heat were without Tyler Herro (thigh, questionable) in their last game, and if he’s out again on Monday, Davion Mitchell will again be asked to step into a larger role. He has the top Projected Plus/Minus at point guard on Monday’s slate and brings both a high floor and a high ceiling.
Since joining the Heat at the trade deadline, Mitchell has averaged 10.2 points, 5.1 assists, 2.7 rebounds and 1.3 steals per game while shooting 50% from the field and 46% from three-point range.
Mitchell posted at least 30 DraftKings points in each of his last three games and five of his last six. On Saturday, he had 20 points, five assists, two rebounds, and 31.5 DraftKings points against the Bucks while Herro was out. That performance matched his season-high in points, but his assists actually after recording 7+ in three straight and five of six before Saturday’s contest.
Without Herro, he’ll take a more active scoring role, but he has a good chance to return value with or without Herro.
Fast Break
If Herro plays, he’ll have a high ceiling against the Sixers. He had 30 points and 45.75 DraftKings points against Philly when he faced them just over a week ago.
On the other side of that matchup, Jared Butler has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position and had 19 points, 10 assists and 41 DraftKings points in their recent matchup. He has scored at least 14 points in six of his last seven games and chipped in good non-scoring numbers as well to average 29.3 DraftKings points per game over that span.
Alec Burks (back, questionable) has started seven straight games for Miami and is coming off a 24-point game against the Bucks that earned him 35.75 DraftKings points on Saturday. If he plays through the injury tag and Herro is out, he has a very high ceiling for a player with a salary just over $4,000.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Injuries have totally derailed the 76ers’ season, but one of the bright spots has been the emergence of Quentin Grimes as a consistent producer. On Monday, he has the highest median, ceiling and floor projection of all shooting guards, even though his Projected Plus/Minus isn’t extremely strong.
Grimes has scored at least 22 points in 12 of his last 13 games, averaging 45.4 DraftKings points per contest with a 32.8% usage rate.
He had just 15 points and 24.5 DraftKings points against the Heat in their most recent meeting but bounced back with over 38 DraftKings points in each of his three games since, including a double-double of 24 points and 10 assists against the Bucks that earned him 46.25 DraftKings points on Thursday.
Value
One of the exciting new features this season on FantasyLabs has been our partnership with ShotQuality. In the ShotQuality projections, Kings guard Keon Ellis has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at point guard and the second-highest at shooting guard.
Ellis started each of the last eight games for the Kings, with Malik Monk playing off the bench. He has produced 21.4 DraftKings points per contest on 8.8 points, 3.4 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 2.0 steals per game.
Ellis was excellent against the Cavs on Sunday, totaling 32.75 DraftKings points on 11 points, three rebounds, three assists, four steals and two blocked shots. He played great defense against the Cavs’ strong backcourt and will have another tough assignment against Cunningham on Monday.
Since this game has a much higher over/under than the Sixers-Heat matchup, according to our Vegas Dashboard, getting Ellis is an excellent way to get significant exposure to the up-tempo environment without paying up for a star player.
Fast Break
If Cunningham needs help carrying the scoring load on Monday, Malik Beasley and Tim Hardaway Jr. could both be strong options for the Pistons. Hardaway exceeded salary-based expectations in five straight matchups before slowing down with just nine points and 17.75 DraftKings points on Saturday. Before that, he had 30+ DraftKings points in four straight.
Duncan Robinson has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard in the FantasyLabs projections. He helped carry the load on Saturday without Herro, racking up 16 points and 24.5 DraftKings points.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
The Kings got a huge game from Zach LaVine on Sunday in their win over the Cavs, and he has the second-highest ceiling projection at both shooting guard and small forward in the ShotQuality projections for Monday’s matchup.
He remains relatively affordable under $8,000 even though he exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last two contests. He had 37 points and 43.5 DraftKings points in Sunday’s victory over Cleveland after posting a nice double-double of 25 points, 10 rebounds and 47.5 DraftKings points in Charlotte last Friday.
He can be a volatile play with other scoring options in Sacramento, but he remains a good option with a high ceiling when he catches fire. He helped carry the load with Keegan Murray (back) out, and he could get more work if the power forward misses a second straight game.
Value
In both sets of projections, Lonnie Walker IV has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward. He has been impressive since returning to the NBA from Zalgiris Kaunas in the EuroLeague and showed a very high ceiling for the Sixers.
Walker has battled some injuries since returning with a concussion and a bruised heel costing him some playing time. When he has been on the floor, though, he has produced 0.9 DraftKings points per minute.
He played 30+ minutes in three of his last four games, leaving the other game early with that heel injury. He produced at least 25 DraftKings points in the other three games, including 18 points and 32.75 DraftKings points in his most recent contest. If Justin Edwards (ribs) is out, there would be even more usage for Walker on the wing.
Fast Break
In both sets of projections, DeMar DeRozan has the highest ceiling projection at small forward. He had 28 points and 46.5 fantasy points on Sunday. He did play 40 minutes, so the second game of the back-to-back could be tough for him, but he has played at least 40 minutes in three of his last four games with over 45 DraftKings points in each.
Andrew Wiggins (hamstring) is questionable after missing five straight games. He was very productive for the Heat before the extended absence and could step into a very large role if he’s available and Herro is out. He’s high-risk, though, since he could only be ready for limited minutes.
If Wiggins misses another game, Pelle Larsson will get another chance to step up. Larsson had three huge games with at least 29 DraftKings points when Wiggins was out but has slowed down with 19.5 and 12.0 DraftKings points in his last two. He had 14 points and 40 DraftKings points in his matchup with the Sixers just over a week ago.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Bam Adebayo is one of the top plays on the board this Monday, especially if Herro ends up getting another game to recover from his thigh bruise. He has the top ceiling, median and floor projection at power forward and will go up against a Sixers frontcourt without Guerschon Yabusele (personal) in addition to Joel Embiid (knee) and Andre Drummond (toe).
Without Herro on Saturday, Bam produced 31 points, 12 boards, five assists and 61.5 DraftKings points in 43 minutes against the Bucks.
Since the All-Star break, Adebayo has averaged 41.3 DraftKings points per game with a solid 25.0% usage rate. However, his usage rate balloons to 29.1% during that stretch with Herro off the floor, and in his two full games without Herro, he’s averaged 62 DraftKings points per contest.
Value
The Pistons listed both Tobias Harris (heel) and Jalen Duren (leg) as questionable for Monday’s game. If either or both are out, it would create another great opportunity for Ausar Thompson. Thompson has been excellent lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in five of his last six games with at least 30 DraftKings points in each of them.
Without Duren and Harris on Saturday, Thompson posted a nice double-double of 18 points and 11 rebounds for 44.75 DraftKings points in a six-point loss to Memphis. That game gave him over 37 DraftKings points in three consecutive games and in four of his last five.
His high-energy motor on both ends of the floor makes him lots of fun to watch and cheer for and gives him a very high ceiling for a player under $7,000 if he’s in a more active role on the glass this Monday.
Fast Break
For the Kings, Keegan Murray (back) was forced to sit on Sunday, leaving 40 minutes for Trey Lyles against the Cavs. Even though he only had 23 DraftKings points, the huge workload is enough to make him a very attractive bargain play at under $4,000 on Monday’s limited slate. Keep an eye on the Kings injury report for Murray, along with Jake LaRavia (thumb), who has missed six straight games but could also be nearing a return.
If Wiggins is out again, there would be more minutes for Haywood Highsmith (Achilles) and Kyle Anderson if Highsmith can play through his own injury issue. He hasn’t missed games but has been regularly listed as questionable. Anderson played 32 minutes on Saturday and had 37.5 DraftKings points on a double-double of 12 points and 14 boards.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
With Duren’s uncertainty and how consistent he has been since returning from injury, Domantas Sabonis is the top center option on the board. In the ShotQuality projections, he has the highest median, ceiling and floor projections on the entire slate.
Like with DeRozan and the other Kings, there could be a fatigue factor after the team’s big win on Sunday. Sabonis played 40 minutes while totaling 49.75 DraftKings points on 27 points, nine rebounds, seven assists and a pair of steals. He had a double-double with 10 rebounds initially before a scoring adjustment dropped him below 50 DraftKings points.
The 28-year-old big man still has at least 48 DraftKings points in four straight games, and he could get a great matchup if Duren is out and the Pistons’ frontcourt is left thin on options this Monday.
Value
The Sixers have been left thin at just about every position all season long. Injuries to Embiid and Drummond have given plenty of time to Adem Bona over the last few weeks, and he could be even busier with Yabusele out on Monday.
Over his last several games, Bona has shown a very high ceiling, with at least 30 DraftKings points in four straight games. He did get slowed down on Saturday and managed just 23.5 DraftKings points in 24 minutes.
On Monday, he’s in a great bounce-back spot against the Heat and has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate in both sets of projections. When he took on the Heat just over a week ago, he finished with 16 points, 10 rebounds, and 38 DraftKings points, and last Thursday, he had a career-high 28 points on his way to 44 DraftKings points against the Bucks.
He’s an amazing value on this small slate at just over $5,000.
Fast Break
If Duren is out, Isaiah Stewart will be another amazing value at center. He had 16 points, eight rebounds, four assists, three blocks, two steals, and 41.5 DraftKings points against the Grizzlies. He has always been a good per-minute producer, so if minutes are coming his way, he’ll be a good play against Sabonis and the Kings.
Kel’el Ware has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position in the FantasyLabs projections after posting 13 points, 14 rebounds and 41.5 DraftKings points against Bona and the Sixers in their last meeting.
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Pictured: Bam Adebayo
Photo Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
