Friday features a two-game slate with huge games for both the Western and Eastern Conferences. The Pacers and Knicks will get us started, as the Pacers look to bounce back after dropping both games in New York. That game tips at 7pm ET, which is when this slate locks. The late game is the Timberwolves hosting the defending champion the Nuggets at 9:30pm ET. Can the champs find a way back into this series?
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
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NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
The top of the pricing tier for point guards is flooded with questionable tags. However, this is the NBA playoffs, so it is hard to see anyone not being able to suit up. Jalen Brunson leads the way with the second-highest projected ceiling on the slate. He left during Game 2 with a foot injury, but was able to play the entire second half and scored 24 of his 29 points in the second frame. Brunson played a playoff-low 32 minutes due to the injury but still managed to find his way to 45.5 DraftKings points.
Our Player model is assuming Brunson is fully healthy with a 43-minute projection and a slate-high 38% usage rate. Looking to take a 3-0 lead against the Pacers, the Knicks will be playing without OG Anunoby which will funnel even more production to Brunson and the rest of the Knicks’ starters. With 12 Pro Trends and over a 50% projected ownership, Brunson is once again one of the best studs to target on the slate.
Value
TJ McConnell is coming off a magnificent Game 2, recording a 10-point, 12-assist double-double. He added four rebounds and finished with a playoff-high 33.5 DraftKings points. The crazy part is McConnell only played 23 minutes, but it is going to be difficult to keep him off the floor moving forward if he is going to play this well. McConnell has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus behind Brunson at the point guard position and the fifth overall. He is one of the best values on the board tonight.
Similar to Brunson, McConnell is also projected for over 50% ownership on this two-game slate. His $4,800 price tag is easy to fit into all lineup builds. It also helps that the Pacers are implied for a slate-high 114.75 points, while being seven-point home favorites. Expect the Pacers to continue to play at an ultra fast pace, which includes McConnell leading the second unit. He is popular for a reason.
Fast Break
After an awful Game 1, Tyrese Haliburton bounced back in a big way in Game 2 with 34 points, nine assists, six rebounds, and three steals. The two-time All-Star shot 11-for-19 from the field including seven made 3-pointers to finish with 63.5 DraftKings points. Continuing to deal with a back injury, Haliburton has been a boom-or-bust fantasy producer, which sets him up perfectly for tournaments. After a dominant Game 2, it is difficult not to get exposure to Haliburton tonight with the ceiling that he can provide.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Anthony Edwards is captivating the world with his Michael Jordan-like game. The emerging superstar has put the Timberwolves on his back in every playoff game this postseason. In his six playoff games, Edwards is averaging 32.3 points, 6.8 rebounds, 5.8 assists, 1.8 steals and 54.7 DraftKings points per game while shooting 54.7% from the field. Regardless of the matchup, Edwards is showcasing his skill set on both ends of the floor. He has the third-highest projected ceiling on the slate.
After taking two games in Denver, the Timberwolves return home and are four-point favorites to take a commanding 3-0 lead against the defending champions. In the first two games, the Nuggets had a 115.8 defensive rating and allowed the Timberwolves to score 106 points in both of their victories. This is the lowest total by far of the two games, but that won’t stop Edwards from having a ceiling performance.
Value
Over his last three playoff games, Knicks’ sharpshooter Donte DiVincenzo has averaged 25.3 points and 44.1 DraftKings points per game. He has played 44+ minutes in every game and is shooting 50.9% from the field and 53.3% from behind the arc. DiVincenzo has buried at least five 3-pointers in each of his last three games and will have a great chance at more opportunities with Anunoby out of the lineup. He has shooting guard and small forward eligibility, and his $6,300 salary is resulting in a 97% Bargain Rating.
Pace in the playoffs is normally down from the regular season, but both of the first two games in this matchup soared over the projected total: 238 points were scored in Game 1 and 251 in Game 2. With how fast the Pacers play, they give up points in bunches. The Pacers allowed 120.2 points per game during the regular season, which was the fourth-highest in the league. DiVincenzo is a strong value play tonight.
Fast Break
Another shooting guard with small forward eligibility is Pacers’ starter Aaron Nesmith. His production has been hit or miss, but Nesmith is still a solid value play that is projected to play around 33 minutes. Playing that many minutes, Nesmith does not need to do much to provide value. He has scored double-digit points in five of his last seven games and can provide upside rebounding. Ultimately this is a bet on the Pacers with the highest implied team total and Nesmith being involved early and often.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
What else is there left to say about Josh Hart? He has played every minute in the last two games and has been incredible averaging a near triple-double with 21.5 points, 14 rebounds, and 7.5 assists per game. Hart has shot 68% from the field in this series with a 20.2% usage rate. He impacts the game in so many ways and will be even more involved with Anunoby out. At $7,700 and with dual-forward eligibility, Hart will be a popular mid-range option. He has a positive Plus/Minus in six of his eight playoff games.
Where Hart has truly been dominant is on the glass. He has averaged 12.8 rebounds per game during the playoffs and this matchup is perfect for him to continue racking up rebounds. The Pacers ranked 24th in rebounding percentage during the regular season at 49.2% and have been similar during the postseason. At this point, Hart feels like a lock to record another double-double and be a valuable fantasy asset.
Value
Most of Jaden McDaniels‘ production comes on the defensive end of the floor. He has such an impact defensively that his offensive game is sporadic. McDaniels did not even score in Game 1 and only had five points in Game 2. However, in the Suns first-round series, McDaniels had two great games, scoring 18 and 25 points, so the possibility of a ceiling game is on the table. His usage rate will remain low, but he is projected to play 35 minutes. At $4,400, McDaniels is a good value option in all formats tonight.
What McDaniels does on the defensive end is why he is getting so much playing time. He has Jamal Murray so frustrated that he is throwing objects onto the floor while shooting 9-for-32 from the field in the first two games. McDaniels had two steals and one block last game to go along with his five points, three assists, and two rebounds. He can accumulate fantasy points in a variety of ways.
Fast Break
Pascal Siakam will finally get a break from not having to go against OG Anunoby, which immediately puts him in the discussion as one of the best plays on the slate. After scoring 36 and 37 points in his first two playoff games, Siakam has yet to reach 20 points since then. Priced under $8,000, Siakam is in a great spot for a bounce-back performance tonight. Drawing around 25% projected ownership, Siakam is a contrarian pay-up option. He is a double-double threat with a very high ceiling.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Karl-Anthony Towns had one of his best playoff games in his career in Game 2, finishing with 27 points and 12 rebounds. He shot 10-for-15 from the field, including three made 3-pointers. He has scored 20+ points in each of his last three games and has been a vital part in the Timberwolves’ playoff success thus far. The Timberwolves are expected to get Rudy Gobert back from his one-game absence, but Towns has recorded a double-double in three of his last four games and is only $7,000 tonight.
Towns’ relatively cheap price tag is resulting in a 91% Bargain Rating, and he has a positive Plus/Minus in each of his last three games. His size and ability to score in the paint and the perimeter is a difficult matchup for any opponent. Towns is drawing the fourth-highest projected ownership, and it helps that he has power forward and center eligibility. He is a fantastic pay-up option for this two-game slate.
Value
After barely playing at all in the entire playoffs, Precious Achiuwa is projected to start and play around 33 minutes for the Knicks tonight. It wouldn’t be shocking to see him play more than that given how much the Knicks’ normal starters play. Achiuwa played 28 minutes last game and will be the likely starter with OG Anunoby out. He finished with eight points and five rebounds while shooting a near-perfect 4-for-5 from the field. Getting this much playing time and in this matchup makes Achiuwa an elite value play.
Achiuwa has seen a price jump to $4,100, but that does not feel like it is enough for this spot. His salary is resulting in a 94% Bargain Rating, and he has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus at the power forward position. He is a legit double-double threat and will be on the floor plenty of minutes if he can stay out of foul trouble. Achiuwa looks like a promising play in cash games and tournaments tonight.
Fast Break
Both Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. need to step up if the Nuggets are going to extend this series back to Denver. Gordon was one of the lone bright spots for the Nuggets in Game 2, finishing with 20 points on 8-for-14 shooting. Porter Jr. scored 20 of his own in Game 1 but was a no-show in Game 2. They are projected for around 20-25% ownership and are essentially the same play. My lean would be to roster Porter Jr. mainly because he has scored 20+ points in five of his last six games.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Nikola Jokic is the premier pay-up option on this two-game slate. He has shockingly looked human in the first two games, averaging 24 points, 12 rebounds, and 8.5 assists per game. The uncharacteristic part is Jokic has shot 42.1% from the field and 2-for-10 from behind the arc. His mediocre performances have led to a 20% projected ownership for tonight’s Game 3, which is rare for such a small slate. Jokic still has by far the highest projected ceiling on the slate, but is he worth the expensive $11,200 salary?
Our model seems to think he is worth it since he is tied with Brunson for 12 Pro Trends, and his price tag is resulting in a 91% Bargain Rating. If the Nuggets are going to win this game, it will likely be on the back of the likely league MVP. What a great time to get Jokic at an ownership discount. Even with Gobert back and struggling throughout the first two games, Jokic is still a threat to break the slate.
Value
The last Knicks’ value and starter to target is center Isaiah Hartenstein. With Mitchell Robinson, Julius Randle, and OG Anunoby out, Hartenstein’s playing time is locked in. He played a playoff-high 39 minutes last game and nearly put up a triple-double with 14 points, 12 rebounds, and eight assists. The big man is the best value play on the slate. He has the highest projected Plus/Minus and projected ownership at over 60%. If he is going to put up a score north of 40 DraftKings points again, he is an incredible value.
Not only are the Pacers an atrocious rebounding team, they also give up a ton of points in the paint. They allowed 57.8 points per game in the paint during the regular season, which was the second-highest mark in the league. Hartenstein has scored at least 13 points in each of his last three games and will likely flirt with another double-double tonight. He is simply too cheap in this great matchup.
Fast Break
When searching for absolute punt value plays, look no further than Pacers’ center Isaiah Jackson. He is priced near the stone minimum at $3,100 and projected to play around 14 minutes. That may not seem like a lot, but Jackson has been very productive in his last two games against the Knicks when given the minutes. He has recorded double-digit DraftKings points in both games and can be productive both scoring in the paint and battling on the glass. Only roster Jackson when your lineup needs the savings.
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