NBA DFS Picks Breakdown on DraftKings (Friday, March 21)

Friday features a seven-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.

Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Stud

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be back in the lineup after getting the night off on Wednesday, and he carries more upside than usual. The Thunder are still playing without Jalen Williams and Lu Dort, and Cason Wallace is also listed as questionable. With Williams and Dort off the court this season, SGA has increased his usage rate to 40.83% and averaged 1.86 DraftKings points per minute. That represents a massive bump from his average of 1.57 DraftKings points per minute for the year.

The only real concern with Gilgeous-Alexander is the matchup. On paper, the Hornets are a solid team to target. They’re 27th in defensive efficiency over their past 15 games, and OKC’s 121.25 implied team total is the top mark on the main slate. However, the Thunder are also massive 19.5-point favorites, which means Gilgeous-Alexander could play less than expected.

That’s concerning, but it also means Gilgeous-Alexander might be a bit overlooked for tournaments. He’s projected for just 12.3% ownership, but he undoubtedly has one of the highest ceilings on the slate.

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Value

The Pelicans are limping to the finish line to close out an extremely disappointing season. That said, Jose Alvarado has been a bright spot. He’s averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he’s currently projected for 30 minutes in our NBA Models. That’s a nice combination for someone who costs just $4,600. He leads the position in projected Plus/Minus.

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Fast Break

Cade Cunningham will likely be the preferred pay-up option at the position. He’s projected for nearly triple the ownership of Gilgeous-Alexander, but he’s also showing up in the optimal lineup simulations at a nearly 37% clip. That’s the top mark among Friday’s point guards. His ceiling projection is comparable to SGA’s at a much cheaper price tag, and he’s taking on a Mavericks squad that ranks 28th in defensive efficiency over their past 15 games.

Chris Paul has played limited minutes recently, but he did get to 30 in his last game. If he can get back to that level on Friday, he has the potential to provide big value at $4,600. He’s averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and the 76ers have been one of the worst defensive teams in basketball since losing Joel Embiid to injury.

Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Like Paul, Stephon Castle has been capped at around 30 minutes per game recently. That said, it hasn’t stopped him from providing solid fantasy value. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in nine of his past 10 games, and he’s increased his production to 1.12 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s taken over as one of the team’s top offensive threats with Victor Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox out for the season, and he’s solidified his status as an important part of the team’s future.

Not much should change with Castle on Friday. He grades out well in terms of projected ceiling and optimal lineup rate, and his $6,700 price tag comes with a 74% Bargain Rating.

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Value

Jordan Hawkins is another potential option for the Pelicans. He’s dirt cheap at $3,200, and he’s increased his production to 0.83 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. That means he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to potentially return value. He’s currently projected for 25 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.94 (per the Trends tool). Hawkins had 26.5 DraftKings points in his last outing, so he also provides a decent ceiling for his price tag.

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Fast Break

The Celtics are going to be without Jaylen Brown once again on Friday, which gives Derrick White a boost in value. He’s increased his usage rate by +5.04% in games without Brown this season, and he’s averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute with Brown off the floor. He’s gotten a bit pricy at $7,700, but he still has some upside at that figure in a juicy matchup vs. the Jazz.

It feels kind of crazy to consider Quentin Grimes at $8,800, but he’s been worthy every penny of late. He went off for more than 70 DraftKings points just two games ago, and he’s averaged 1.20 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He has excellent upside vs. the Spurs, who rank dead last in defensive efficiency over their past 15 games.

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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Devin Vassell is another midrange option with stud-like upside for the Spurs on Friday. He has the third-highest ceiling projection at small forward, trailing only Jayson Tatum and Franz Wagner. Both players are significantly more expensive, and Vassell grades out as the superior value in our NBA Models. He cracks the optimal lineup in more than 24% of our simulations, which ranks second among small forwards.

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Value

The only SF with a higher optimal lineup rate than Vassell is teammate Keldon Johnson. Johnson hasn’t seen quite as much playing time as some of his teammates recently, but he’s been pretty efficient with his minutes. He’s averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games. He remains priced at a massive discount on DraftKings, where his $4,700 salary comes with an 88% Bargain Rating.

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Fast Break

Justin Edwards has racked up at least 31.0 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and should remain a big part of the 76ers’ lineup. He’s conservatively projected for 27 minutes vs. the Spurs after logging at least 30.4 minutes in his past two contests. He’s projected for less than 10% ownership on this slate, so he could be a bit overlooked for tournaments.

Jaylen Martin remains in play for the Wizards. They’re not quite as shorthanded on Friday as they were in their last game, but Martin is still projected for 22.5 minutes vs. the Magic. He’s averaged 0.79 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he’s had at least 20.25 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. He doesn’t have quite as much upside as some of the other value options on this slate, but he leads all small forwards in projected Plus/Minus.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

The Celtics are in a pretty enviable position at the moment. They’re pretty much cemented into the No. 2 spot in the East, so they have little to play for at the moment. It gives them the luxury of being able to rest some of their regulars down the stretch.

That makes Tatum slightly risky at the top of the pricing spectrum. There’s a chance he doesn’t see a full workload vs. the Jazz, especially with Boston being 14-point favorites.

Still, his upside is immense when he’s on the floor. Tatum has already been a fantasy stud this season, and he gets even better when playing without Brown. He’s increased his usage rate by +5.4% with Brown off the floor, resulting in an average of 1.45 DraftKings points per minute. He ultimately has the third-highest ceiling projection on this slate, trailing only SGA and Cunningham, and there’s more than enough value to squeeze two of those guys into some lineups.

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Value

Speaking of value, you’d be hard-pressed to find a better value performance than what Sandro Mamukelashvilli did in his last outing. He played just 19.4 minutes vs. the Knicks, but that didn’t stop him from racking up 55.25 DraftKings points. He knocked down 13 of 14 shots from the field – including a perfect 7-7 from 3-point range – while adding nine rebounds, three assists, and a steal. Mamukelashvilli won’t be that good again on Friday, but he’s still averaged 1.20 DraftKings points per minute for the year. He doesn’t need a ton of playing time to pay off his $4,000 salary.

However, Jeremy Sochan is the more logical value option for the Spurs. His playing time is a lot more consistent. He’s currently projected for 31.5 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute this season. He played nearly 38 minutes in the team’s last outing, so he’s the safer of the two options and leads all power forwards in projected Plus/Minus.

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Fast Break

Ausar Thompson is an intriguing value target for the Pistons. He saw a few additional minutes in his last contest, and he’s projected for another 26 minutes on Friday’s slate. Thompson has averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute for the year, so he’s capable of taking advantage of a few additional minutes. He’s one of the best pure values on the slate, with his $4,300 salary resulting in a 94% Bargain Rating.

Naz Reid finished with 28.25 DraftKings points vs. the Pelicans on Wednesday, despite shooting a subpar 3-11 from the field. With a better shooting performance on Friday, he has the potential for a bigger fantasy day in the rematch. Reid has come off the bench since Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert returned to the lineup, but he remains a big part of the Timberwolves’ rotation: he’s logged at least 30.2 minutes in back-to-back games, and he has the potential to average much more than a fantasy point per minute in this spot.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

It has been a season to forget in Miami. The Jimmy Butler situation was a nightmare off the court, and their production has been lacking on it. That includes Bam Adebayo. He’s had a down season statistically, averaging fewer points and rebounds per game than he did last season despite playing more minutes.

However, Adebayo has picked up his production a bit of late. He has at least 56.5 DraftKings points in two of his past five outings, giving him a solid ceiling for his $8,400 price tag. He has a solid matchup on the interior vs. the Rockets, giving him the top ceiling projection at the position.

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Value

Tristian Vukcevic continues to thrive in limited minutes for the Wizards. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games, and he’s had at least 27.75 DraftKings points in three straight. He’s averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he’s projected for another 21 minutes Friday vs. the Magic. That’s more than enough to justify a selection at $4,200.

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Fast Break

Jusuf Nurkic is not the same player that he was in his prime, but he’s still capable of putting up fantasy points. He’s averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is an elite figure for someone with a $3,700 salary. Nurkic is currently projected for 21 minutes in our NBA Models, and while that’s not a ton, Nurkic has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.17 with a comparable salary and minute projection.

Jalen Duren continues to rack up fantasy points at an elite rate, averaging 1.30 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. His minutes have been down over his past two outings, but he could get back to around 30 on Friday. Only Sochan has a higher optimal lineup rate at the center position.