NBA DFS Picks Breakdown on DraftKings (Friday, December 27)

Friday features an eight-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Stud

The Grizzlies stand out as one of the top team targets on Friday’s slate. They’re taking on the Pelicans, who have been nothing short of a disaster this season. They’re 29th in defensive efficiency, and the Grizzlies’ 122.75 implied team total is the top mark of the day.

That makes Ja Morant a solid pay-up option. Morant has played a limited role for the Grizzlies to start the year, averaging just 27.9 minutes across his 19 contests. However, he remains extremely efficient on a per-minute basis. He’s averaged 1.48 DraftKings points per minute, and when he plays big minutes, he has the potential for huge performances. In his last two outings with at least 32 minutes of playing time, he’s racked up 55.25 and 61.25 DraftKings points.

We’re still waiting on the Grizzlies’ injury report – they’re on the second leg of a back-to-back – but they were without Marcus Smart and Santi Aldama for most of yesterday’s contest. If both players are out and this game stays competitive, Morant could pick up a few additional minutes. He’s currently projected for 30 minutes in our NBA Models, and if he gets to that threshold, he’s a good bet to return value.

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Value

Sticking with the Grizzlies, Scotty Pippen Jr. stands out as one of the best values at the position. Like Morant, he’s an elite per-minute producer. He’s averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to do damage. He’s currently projected for 24 minutes in our NBA Models, and Pippen has averaged a Plus/Minus of +14.45 in two games with a comparable salary and minute projection (per the Trends tool).

Speaking of salary, Pippen’s $4,700 price tag on DraftKings comes with an 86% Bargain Rating. Add in a +4.88 Opponent Plus/Minus, and he checks all the boxes.

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Fast Break

Luka Doncic will miss Friday’s contest for the Mavericks, which means Spencer Dinwiddie will likely move into the starting lineup. He’s priced at just $4,900, making him an elite value target vs. the Suns. He’s currently projected for 30 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute with Doncic off the floor. Dinwiddie has averaged 30.88 DraftKings points per game in eight contests without Doncic this season, so he’s clearly worth considering on Friday.

Kevin Porter Jr. has been an excellent source of value for the Clippers recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.43 over his past 10 outings. He’s had at least 27 DraftKings points in six of his past seven games, so he’s another viable value option at the position.  

Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Kyrie Irving figures to be the biggest winner for the Mavs with Doncic out of the lineup. He erupted in the second half without Doncic on Christmas, racking up 26 points, four rebounds, and two assists in less than 20 minutes of action. He probably won’t keep that same pace in a full game without his star teammate, but he’s averaged 42.39 DraftKings points in seven games without Doncic this season.

Irving has also remained pretty affordable at $8,300. It results in a Bargain Rating of 91%, which is tied for the best mark at the shooting guard position.

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Value

The Mavericks aren’t the only team dealing with a big injury on Friday. The Warriors are going to be without Steph Curry, which opens up a ton of opportunities for the rest of the roster.

Dennis Schroder should be a primary beneficiary. He was only recently acquired by the Warriors, so he hasn’t seen a ton of action without Curry yet. However, he does lead the team with a +3.31% usage increase in that scenario.

Schroder’s price tag has also plummeted to $5,300 after sitting in the $7k range while he was in Brooklyn. He’s projected for 32 minutes vs. the Clippers, and Schroder has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.38 with a comparable salary and minute projection.

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Fast Break

Brandin Podziemski is another potential target for the Warriors. He hasn’t been quite as good as he was during his rookie season, but he should see more opportunities with Curry sidelined. He’s increased his production to 0.90 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games before a disappointing showing on Christmas.

Luke Kennard is priced just above the minimum at $3,200, and he’s coming off 29.0 DraftKings points in 24.7 minutes on Thursday. Part of that stemmed from the game turning into a blowout, but Kennard could pick up a few additional minutes depending on the team’s injury report. He’s currently projected for 23 minutes in our NBA Models, which is enough to make him a viable punt play.

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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Jayson Tatum continues to deliver elite production for DFS players. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games, including 83.75 DraftKings points two games ago vs. the Bulls. Overall, he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.39 over his past 10 outings.

Despite his continued elite production, Tatum’s price tag has actually come down a smidge recently. He’s been above $10,000 for most of the year, but he’s priced at just $9,900 for Friday’s matchup vs. the Pacers.

The matchup is a good one. Indiana ranks 20th in defensive efficiency and seventh in pace, and the Celtics’ implied team total ranks second on the slate. Ultimately, Tatum has the second-highest ceiling projection on a slate with limited star power, trailing only the significantly more expensive Nikola Jokic.

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Value

The Spurs took their time integrating Devin Vassell into the lineup this season, but he’s back to serving as one of the team’s offensive focal points. He’s played at least 31.8 minutes in three of the team’s past four outings, including 35.7 minutes vs. the Knicks on Christmas.

If Vassell is going to continue to play that much, he’s undoubtedly a value at his current price tag. He’s averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he draws an excellent matchup Friday vs. the Nets. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.76, and Vassell leads the position in projected Plus/Minus.

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Fast Break

Jaylen Wells is yet another value target for the Grizzlies. He doesn’t have the greatest ceiling, but he has been a solid source of production in his rookie season. He’s averaged 0.80 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s scored at least 23.0 DraftKings points in three of his past four games. He’s currently projected for 28 minutes in our NBA Models, which should be enough to return value.

Norman Powell has done a lot of scoring for the Clippers this season, and he’s played extremely well of late. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games, and he’s shown a ceiling of more than 50 DraftKings points in that stretch. He’s increased his production to 1.17 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s showing up as undervalued relative to his projected ownership in Sim Labs.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

The Suns are another team playing shorthanded at the moment. Devin Booker will miss his third straight game, while Bol Bol and Grayson Allen will miss their second straight. It opens up plenty of minutes and shot attempts for the rest of the roster.

Kevin Durant is going to have to carry a large load once again on Friday. He’s seen a massive +7.06% bump to his usage rate with Booker off the floor this season, and he’s posted a 37.61% usage rate in his three full contests without Booker. Durant has scored at least 49.0 DraftKings points in three of his past four outings, and the lone exception was a game where he saw reduced minutes in a blowout.

No one is projected for more minutes at power forward on Friday, the Suns are merely one-point favorites against the Mavericks. As long as that game stays competitive, he should crush.

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Value

Andrew Wiggins has eligibility at both forward spots on DraftKings, where his $5,600 salary comes with an 86% Bargain Rating. He’s coming off a big showing on Christmas, racking up 45.5 points in 35.2 minutes, and he’s averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute for the year.

Wiggins should also be one of the biggest beneficiaries of Curry’s absence. He’s averaged 32.42 DraftKings points in three games without Curry this season, making him a strong value at his current price tag.

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Fast Break

Jonathan Kuminga also stands out for the Warriors. His role his been inconsistent this season – just like it has for most of his career – but Steve Kerr has no choice but to lean on him without Curry. He’s seen a team-high +4.15% usage bump in five games without Curry this season, resulting in an average of 1.16 DraftKings points per minute. If he gets to 30 minutes Friday vs. the Clippers, he has significant upside at just $5,500.

Jaren Jackson Jr. typically has one of the highest ceilings in his price range, and that’s definitely the case in a juicy matchup vs. the Pelicans. He’s coming off more than 50 DraftKings points in his last outing, and he’s averaged 1.35 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s underpriced at just $7,100, resulting in an 88% Bargain Rating.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

There is almost never a bad time to pay up for Jokic, especially on a slate with plenty of value. He continues to do things we’ve never really seen on a basketball court, resulting in an average of 1.80 DraftKings points per minute.

He hasn’t been quite as potent recently, but he’s still averaged 1.75 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. When he hits his ceiling, no one in fantasy can consistently match it.

Jokic draws a tough matchup Friday vs. the Cavaliers, but Jokic is as matchup-proof as it gets. He still leads the position with 12 Pro Trends, and his ownership should be pretty reasonable.

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Value

No one on this slate stands out as a better value than Zach Edey. He leads all players in projected Plus/Minus, making him a clear starting point for cash game lineups.

Edey has been a really strong per-minute producer as a rookie, averaging 1.21 DraftKings points per minute. He did miss some time with injuries this season, but he’s back and playing consistent minutes for the team at the moment. He’s logged at least 23.9 minutes in five games since returning, and he’s been closer to 27 in his past three.

If he’s going to continue to play that much, $5,000 is simply way too cheap. His floor games should be enough to return value, and when he hits his ceiling, he’s a potential slate-breaker. That was the case yesterday when he racked up 50.0 DraftKings points in 27.3 minutes vs. the Raptors.

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Fast Break

Trayce Jackson-Davis is another excellent value option at the position. He’s scored at least 29.5 DraftKings points in three straight games, and he’s remained very affordable at just $4,300. His minutes seem more secure than they were at the start of the season, and he’s averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute for the year.

Julius Randle has had a rough transition to the Timberwolves, but he’s racked up 46.25 and 49.0 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. He’s always been an excellent per-minute producer, so it’s possible his production increases as he gets more acclimated with his new team. He’s an intriguing tournament option at just $7,100.