Wednesday features an eight-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
The pay-up options on tonight’s eight-game slate are limited due to injuries, which makes Shai Gilgeous-Alexander look even more appealing despite the difficult matchup. He has the highest projected ceiling for both DraftKings and FanDuel. In his fifth year with the Thunder, he is averaging a career-high in points, rebounds, assists, usage rate, and field goal percentage at 54.9%. Gilgeous-Alexander has been great recently, scoring 30+ points in 10 of his last 11 games.
This matchup between the Thunder and Heat will be interesting due to their contradicting styles. The Thunder play at the sixth-fastest pace in the league, while the Heat play at the fourth-slowest. However, Vegas has this total at 234.5 points, which indicates a more up-tempo game environment.
Gilgeous-Alexander is worth the price tag due to his recent play.
Value
The two worst teams in the league are facing off tonight in the 5-30 Spurs and 3-34 Pistons. The Spurs are 2.5-point road favorites, implied for 121.5 points. Spurs point guard Tre Jones is popping in our NBA Model after scoring 18 points in back-to-back games. He shot 14-for-21 in those two contests. Jones’ move to the starting lineup and extra playing time has made the Spurs more competitive. They lost by a combined six points against the Bucks and Cavaliers in their last two games.
Priced under $6,000 across the industry, Jones is a cheap way to get exposure to this toilet bowl, which should be relatively high-scoring. Prioritize Jones on FanDuel where he is currently projected for the third-highest ownership on the slate. We also may be under-projecting Jones at 30 minutes tonight. He played 34 and 35 minutes in his last two games when starting.
Fast Break
Tyrese Maxey has been inconsistent in the seven games he has played without Joel Embiid this season. However, it is only a matter of time until he has a breakout game due to his increased usage. With Embiid off the floor, Maxey has a team-high +5.58% usage rate in 515 minutes worth of sample size. Maxey is projected for 30% ownership on DraftKings and 40% on FanDuel due to his reasonable salary. This matchup against the Hawks is also fantasy-friendly with a 245.5-point total.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
With LaMelo Ball, Gordon Hayward, and Mark Williams out for the Hornets, Terry Rozier has completely taken over this team. He had one poor shooting night in Chicago, but in three of his last four games Rozier is averaging 38.3 points per game while shooting 57.8% from the field and 50% from behind the arc. Rozier is averaging a career-high in points, assists, and usage rate at 27.6% this season. Rozier will need another big game to keep them competitive against the Kings tonight.
The Hornets have lost 13 of their last 14 games and are 7.5-point home underdogs. In what is a pace-up spot for Rozier, he looks phenomenal on DraftKings and FanDuel, leading the slate with 13 Pro Trends. Having point guard and shooting guard eligibility makes it easy to fit Rozier into all lineups.
On DraftKings, Rozier is projected to have the highest ownership on the slate.
Value
Tyrese Haliburton is out for the foreseeable future with a hamstring injury, which makes this Pacers offense look completely different. In the three games that Haliburton has missed this season, the Pacers are scoring nearly 10 points per game less than their season average. However, a matchup against the Wizards, who rank last in defensive rating at 121.9, will make all of these Pacers look like Haliburton. Andrew Nembhard, in particular, didn’t see a salary increase due to his recent injury.
Projected to play 26 minutes tonight, Nembhard is one of the best values on the slate. In the two games that he has played without Haliburton, Nembhard is averaging nine points and six assists per game with a monstrous 29.2% usage rate.
There is still a little concern about his injury, so keep an eye on his status and what the Pacers’ starting lineup will look like tonight.
Fast Break
Kings sharpshooter Kevin Huerter has had a down season with the emergence of Keegan Murray. He was relegated to a bench role after averaging under 10 points per game and shooting just 41.6% from the field. However, Huerter did get the start again last night and could stay in the starting lineup again tonight in what will be a great matchup against the Hornets. Opponents are shooting a league-high 39.5% from behind the arc against the Kings, which sets up perfectly for Huerter.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Projected for less than 5% ownership on DraftKings and FanDuel once again, Jayson Tatum finds himself in a familiar spot. However, this spot could look a lot better if Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday, who are both questionable, did not play. With both players off the floor this season, Tatum has a +3.59% usage rate and a +4.75 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Even if Porzingis and Holiday suit up, Tatum has displayed a ceiling when the Celtics are fully healthy. He is a strong contrarian option.
The Celtics are eight-point home favorites in a battle of the best two teams in the league. With both teams ranking first and second in defensive rating, it shouldn’t be surprising how low-owned all of the options in this game are. In his last three games, Tatum is averaging 32.7 points and 11.7 rebounds per game while shooting 53.6% from the field and 57.7% from downtown.
He has shown the ability to play well in big games, and this is as big of a regular-season matchup as it gets.
Value
It is difficult not to go right back to Pistons forward Bojan Bogdanovic after his 26-point game last night. Bogdanovic shot an efficient 10-for-14 from the field and 4-for-7 from long distance while also pulling down five rebounds. With Cade Cunningham still out, the Pistons desperately need scoring from someone. Even at age 34, Bogdanovic is averaging 19.8 points per game while shooting 40% from behind the arc and ranks second on the team in scoring behind Cunningham.
In what should be a competitive game, Bogdanovic looks even better. He is projected to play around 35 minutes and has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings at the small forward position. The Spurs rank third in pace and 25th in defensive rating, making this an exploitable matchup for Bogdanovic.
He is a fantastic mid-range play across the industry.
Fast Break
Bruce Brown is another Pacers forward who will benefit from the absence of Tyrese Haliburton. With Haliburton off the floor this season, Brown has a team-high +4.08% usage rate and a +3.94 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Brown has scored 15 or more points in two of his last three games and is shooting 66.7% from the field during that time. Brown’s salary hasn’t budged recently, which makes him look amazing in this matchup against a weak Wizards defense. He is another great value play.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Victor Wembanyama has seen his playing time get cut drastically, with this being a lost year for the Spurs. He hasn’t topped 26 points in seven consecutive games. Similar to Tatum, Wembanayma is projected for under 5% ownership across the industry. He does look much better on DraftKings at $8,900 with a 93% Bargain Rating. Even with limited playing time, he has recorded 50+ DraftKings points in back-to-back games. There is upside for Wembanyama, especially in this spot.
The Pistons are coming off a back-to-back where they gave up 131 points last night. It didn’t help their starting center Jalen Duren got into foul trouble, but 82 of those points came in the paint. Over his last five games, Wembanyama has averaged 24.4 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 4.4 blocks per game. When looking to get contrarian, Wembanyama is impossible to ignore.
Value
Tobias Harris has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel behind his teammate Tyrese Maxey. With Joel Embiid out, there is plenty of usage rate and production to go around. Harris sat out last game but is expected to return tonight in this great matchup. In his two meetings against the Hawks this season, Harris is averaging a near double-double with 21 points and nine rebounds per game while shooting 58.6% from the field and 50% from distance.
Priced in the mid-range, Harris is going to be one of the most popular plays on the slate. His sub-$7,000 price tag on DraftKings stands out as an elite value. Before his knee injury, Harris has scored 20+ points in five of his last six games, with a positive Plus/Minus in each of those five games.
Harris is a strong play with Embiid sitting and with his recent success.
Fast Break
Jalen Johnson is coming off yet another double-double last game with 12 points and 11 rebounds. It was his third double-double in his last five games since coming back from injury. Over that time, Johnson is averaging an impressive 18.4 points and 10.8 rebounds per game. Dejounte Murray is also questionable with a hamstring injury, which will boost Johnson’s outlook. With Murray off the floor this season, Johnson has a +2.56% usage rate and a +2.37 DraftKings Plus/Minus, which both rank second-highest on the team.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
With Joel Embiid out once again, we’re going right back to Domantas Sabonis who recorded another triple-double last night. Sabonis torched the Pistons frontcourt with 37 points, 13 assists, and 10 rebounds while shooting an impressive 16-for-21 from the field. It was his third triple-double in his last four games. Sabonis is turning into a mini-Nikola Jokic with his versatility but it costs much cheaper. At $10,000 on DraftKings and $10,200 on FanDuel, Sabonis is a fantastic pay-up option.
Last night’s matchup against the Pistons was great, but this spot might be even better. The Hornets are still without their starting center, Mark Williams, and currently rank 26th in rebounding percentage at 48.2%. They also allow the eighth-most points per game in the paint.
Sabonis should be more popular than he is projected to be, which makes him an even better play.
Value
Paying down at center on FanDuel looks like the optimal build tonight. Paul Reed is projected for nearly 40% ownership on FanDuel but only 10% on DraftKings, despite his salary being very similar. Reed played 25 minutes in the 76ers last game without Joel Embiid and scored a season-high 16 points. He also grabbed six rebounds and shot 7-for-12 from the field. Reed has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate for FanDuel and is a strong play in cash game contests.
Reed may get the luxury of playing against a Hawks frontcourt without Clint Capela, who is questionable. Even with Capela in the lineup, the Hawks have allowed 55.5 points per game in the paint this season, which is the fourth-highest mark in the league. There are several underpriced centers on DraftKings, but Reed stands out like a sore thumb on FanDuel tonight.
Fast Break
Bam Adebayo is a strong play in all formats due to his consistency and proven upside with Jimmy Butler out. Adebayo will be able to control the glass in this matchup against Thunder center Chet Holmgren. Holmgren has been a shot-blocking machine, but the team ranks 29th in rebounding percentage. Adebayo is one of the best mid-range shooters in the league, so Holmgren may be less effective. It’s a great chance for Adebayo to rack up his eighth double-double in his last nine games.
