On Wednesday, the NBA has a full 10-game slate on tap as a busy week leading up to Christmas continues. Of the 20 teams taking the floor, only the Celtics are playing for the second day in a row. However, there are eight teams on the front half of their back-to-back since the Bulls, Cavs, Pacers, Clippers, Lakers, Timberwolves, Magic, and Jazz are all scheduled to be back in action on Thursday as part of the eight-game slate.
Since we’re over 25 games into the season for most teams, injuries are starting to pile up and impacting rotations in multiple key spots. It’s important to be sure to refresh the NBA Models for the latest updates and keep an eye on the news hub leading up to game time for all the latest and greatest info.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
The Rockets have vastly improved this season under new coach Ime Udoka. A maturing young core and the addition of veteran point guard Fred VanVleet have led to a strong 13-11 start, including an impressive 11-1 home record. FVV and the Rockets host the Hawks in a good matchup Monday night. The Hawks-Rockets game has the third-highest over/under on our Vegas Dashboard. In the matchup, VanVleet has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
VanVleet went off for 27 points, eight rebounds, and 17 assists on Monday against the Cavaliers. He played over 45 minutes in that overtime loss and isn’t likely to match that workload, but he still projects to be a very good play against Atlanta. On the season, FVV has produced 1.06 DraftKings points and 1.02 FanDuel points per minute, but he has been trending up with 1.10 DraftKings points and 1.09 FanDuel points per minute over his past 11 games while logging a team-high 39.4 minutes per game.
In his last 10 games, FVV has exceeded salary-based expectations in nine games on FanDuel with an Average Plus/Minus of 8.54 FanDuel points and 1.89 DraftKings points. He is projected for 18.9% usage in 38 minutes on Wednesday, and the Rockets have the second-highest pace differential on the slate, indicating this should be a pace-up spot to target.
Value
As the Nets continue to adjust to their new rotation now that everyone is mostly healthy, Spencer Dinwiddie has emerged as a strong point guard play. On FanDuel, Dinwiddie has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his last six games and in each of his last four. He ranks in the top eight in Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel at both point guard and shooting guard.
Dinwiddie is coming off of back-to-back double-doubles in losses to the Jazz and Warriors. He has averaged 1.22 DraftKings points and 1.21 FanDuel points per minute over his last six games while playing 33.7 minutes per game.
He and the Nets are home on Wednesday after a five-game road trip, and they’ll host the Knicks in the latest version of their crosstown rivalry.
Fast Break
The Mavericks are on the slate, which means you have to consider Luka Doncic since he has such a massive workload and puts up incredible numbers. He has the highest median and ceiling projections on the entire slate and a positive Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel, even though he’s the most expensive player. He has produced 1.80 DraftKings points and 1.68 FanDuel points per minute over his last nine games.
While the Bulls have been without Zach LaVine (foot), Coby White has stepped up in a big way. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in nine straight games on both DraftKings and FanDuel, averaging 1.18 DraftKings points and 1.12 FanDuel points per minute. The fifth-year guard is in the top 10 in Projected Plus/Minus at point guard on both DraftKings and FanDuel for Wednesday’s matchup against the Lakers.
Payton Pritchard has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all the point guards priced under $5,000 on FanDuel and the second-highest in that price bracket on FanDuel. With Boston on the second night of a back-to-back, he could get even more work if any of the stars sit out or the game gets lopsided in either direction.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Donovan Mitchell has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection of all shooting guards on Wednesday’s slate. Even though he is $10,000 on DraftKings and $10,200 on FanDuel, he also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate. He is questionable after missing shootaround due to illness, but he is poised to carry the load if he’s well enough to give it a go on Wednesday night.
Without Darius Garland (jaw) and Evan Mobley (knee), Mitchell has had to carry more of the load in the Cavaliers offense. He has played over 39 minutes in three straight games and has averaged 1.26 DraftKings points and 1.22 FanDuel points per minute in those three contests with a 29.0% usage rate and 29.7% assist rate. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of those three contests with an Average Plus/Minus of 4.9 DraftKings points and 7.1 FanDuel points.
He takes on his former team on Wednesday, who have been a great matchup for guards, especially with both Jordan Clarkson (hamstring) and Keyonte George (foot) still sidelined.
Value
Another key member of the Cavs in that good matchup is Max Strus, who has had usage rates of 17.8% and 19.1% in the two games without Mobley and Garland. He has a 22.8% usage rate on the season with those two off the floor, a usage differential of 5.24 percentage points. In that scenario, he has produced 0.89 DraftKings points and 0.84 FanDuel points per minute.
In this matchup with the Jazz, Strus has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard on FanDuel and also ranks in the top five at small forward. He has a 95% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, but even on DraftKings, where he is a little more expensive, he ranks in the top 10 in Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard.
Strus always brings a high ceiling since he can catch fire from long range, and with usage coming his way, he is a strong mid-range option. If Mitchell is limited or out on Wednesday, Strus and Caris LeVert would have to carry even more offensive workload.
Fast Break
On the other side of the Jazz-Cavs game, Collin Sexton will also be facing his former squad. Without Clarkson and George, he has started each of the last four games for Utah, averaging 1.14 DraftKings points and 1.10 FanDuel points per minute and playing 33 minutes per game with a team-high 29.3% usage rate.
For the Clippers, Paul George (illness) is questionable for their matchup in Dallas. If he plays, he has good projections, ranking in the top five in Projected Plus/Minus at both shooting guard and small forward on DraftKings. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his last seven games on FanDuel, where he has a 66% Bargain Rating.
Gary Trent Jr. is only $4,000 on FanDuel despite having 22 points and 10 rebounds on Monday against Charlotte. He has a 96% Bargain Rating and leaps out as a strong cheap play. On DraftKings, Trent is $4,900, but his teammate Malachi Flynn is only $3,700, and both have good Projected Plus/Minus against the Nuggets.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
As the Bulls host the Lakers, DeMar DeRozan has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He also has extra power forward eligibility on DraftKings, where he has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus.
DeRozan has been carrying the load for the Bulls with Zach LaVine (foot) out. In his eight games in December, he has a team-high 26.9% usage rate and has produced 1.12 DraftKings points and 1.12 FanDuel points per minute. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in six of those eight games on FanDuel and five of those eight games on DraftKings.
Value
Derrick Jones Jr. has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward on DraftKings and the sixth-highest on FanDuel. The opposite of DeRozan, he has extra power forward eligibility on FanDuel, and he has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at that position.
Jones has stepped up for the Mavericks with Kyrie Irving (heel) sidelined and become a key part of their starting five. Since December 1, only Luka has played more minutes for Dallas, and Jones has produced 0.85 DraftKings points and 0.88 FanDuel points per minute.
While he doesn’t usually get a ton of usage, he is involved enough to be a very reliable value play. Especially in matchups like this one against the Clippers, the Mavs rely heavily on him on the wing, making Airplane Mode a good salary-saver with plenty of minutes and good upside.
Fast Break
Kawhi Leonard’s salary has finally caught up with his production for the most part. He still has the second-highest median and ceiling on this slate at small forward and the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings. If George sits out, there will be even more work for Kawhi, making him a slightly better play than DeRozan if you have the salary available.
The Pacers and Hornets meet in the game with the highest over/under on the board, and Bruce Brown is an affordable way to get a piece of the up-tempo action. Brown has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward on DraftKings and the highest of any player under $6,000 at point guard, where he has added eligibility. On FanDuel, he’s a little more expensive and only a small forward, but he still brings a high ceiling.
Another midrange play to consider on FanDuel is Jamie Jaquez Jr. of the Heat. Jaquez has the sixth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward on FanDuel, where he brings a 98% Bargain Rating. He could be in a slightly smaller role with Tyler Herro back for Miami, but this seems like an over-correction to his salary to drop him to $5,700 (compared to $7,100 on DraftKings).
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
As with every position on such a busy slate, power forward is loaded with star players, most of which are priced over $9,000. However, there are two strong power forward plays just under that mark–Julius Randle and Pascal Siakam. Randle has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel, and since he has been slightly more consistent, he’s my preferred option.
Randle matches 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel and 11 on DraftKings, tied for the most at power forward on both sites. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last 10 games on DraftKings and eight of his last 10 on FanDuel while producing 1.35 DraftKings points and 1.27 FanDuel points per minute and playing 36.1 minutes per game.
Without Mitchell Robinson the last five games, Randle has had to do some extra work at center, and he has at least eight boards in four of his five games without Robinson, including an impressive 27-point,14-rebound double-double in Monday’s win over the Lakers.
Value
In the pace-up spot highlighted above for the Rockets against the Hawks, Jabari Smith Jr. is projected to bounce back from a down game on Monday and be a top value option. In that down game Monday, he was limited by foul trouble against Cleveland and only played 22 minutes, compared to his season average of 29.5 minutes per game.
Smith has produced 0.96 DraftKings points and 0.93 FanDuel points per minute on the season, and he had increased those numbers to 1.05 DraftKings points and 1.03 FanDuel points per minute in his previous seven games before being limited on Monday.
He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward on DraftKings and the fifth-highest on FanDuel.
Fast Break
The highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at power forward on this slate come from Anthony Davis (hip, adductor), who is questionable against the Bulls. He has regularly played through his questionable tag and put up great numbers lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in eight straight regular-season games on both DraftKings and FanDuel, producing 1.58 DraftKings points and 1.58 FanDuel points per minute.
Paolo Banchero has flashed a very high ceiling this season with the Magic and has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward on FanDuel and the fourth-highest on DraftKings. He had a huge game with 36 points and 10 boards on Sunday in his most recent game, but he can be boom-or-bust, as evidenced by his 14 points and only five rebounds last Friday in the same matchup against the Celtics. He’s a volatile play but brings a high enough ceiling that he still deserves consideration.
As a cheap flier, Georges Niang has a good Projected Plus/Minus from around $4,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has 10 points off the Cavs’ bench on Monday against the Rockets and could be part of the solution to how Cleveland copes with multiple injuries.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Nikola Jokic has the second-highest ceiling and median projections on the entire slate behind only Luka Doncic, who costs $700 more than him on DraftKings and $200 more on FanDuel. He also has better projections than Joel Embiid (discussed below) due to the matchup. Jokic actually has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate on DraftKings, where he has an 89% Bargain Rating.
Jokic has produced a ridiculous 1.85 DraftKings points and 1.77 FanDuel points per minute on the season. He had a sub-par game against the Mavericks on Monday in what turned into a blowout. It was just the third time all season that he failed to produce double-digits in any category.
He should be poised for a big-time bounce back against the Raptors, who give him the highest Opponents Plus/Minus at the position on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Value
With Mark Williams (back) again listed as doubtful, Nick Richards will likely continue to get extra playing time for the Hornets. He had 10 points and 10 boards in 32 minutes on Monday in Toronto and has produced 0.86 DraftKings points and 0.92 FanDuel points per minute over his last seven games.
Richards should be in a good spot against the fast-tempo Pacers and has the fourth-highest Projeted Plus/Minus on the slate on FanDuel. On DraftKings, Richards is $6,100 and no center who is cheaper than him has a higher Projected Plus/Minus. If he gets the start in Williams’ spot against Indiana, he should be one of the best value big men on the board.
Fast Break
Despite his matchup against the Timberwolves, who allow the fewest fantasy points to opposing centers, Joel Embiid is still a hard option to fade. He has produced an incredible 1.89 DraftKings points and 1.84 FanDuel points per minute on the season. He has been even better over his last nine games, increasing those rates to 2.06 DraftKings points and 2.03 FanDuel points per minute. He has exceeded his always lofty salary-based expectations in each of his last 10 games with an Average Plus/Minus of 9.99 DraftKings points and 11.26 FanDuel points.
Without Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at center on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He showed his ceiling with a 25-point, 14-rebound performance against the Hawks last Friday but didn’t have a great game with just 10 points and six boards against the Rockets in his last time out.
If you have to go cheap, Dwight Powell has the top Projected Plus/Minus of all centers priced under $5,000 on FanDuel and the second-highest in that price bracket on DraftKings. Powell has played over 20 minutes in each of the last two games for the Mavericks while helping to fill in for Dereck Lively (ankle), who will also be sidelined on Wednesday. Powell started Monday and had eight points and eight rebounds in 23 minutes.
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