After starting the New Year with a great Monday night slate, the NBA has six games on Tuesday’s schedule. The Hornets are the only team on the second night of a back-to-back as they visit the Kings in one of the two late games, but seven teams play Tuesday and then return to action on Wednesday as part of a huge 12-game slate.
As is normal at this point of the season, there are several important injuries to monitor throughout the day that have the potential to impact the slate. Be sure to refresh the NBA Models throughout the day for the latest adjustments and monitor the news hub for status updates.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
As the Thunder host the Celtics in a fascinating showdown between one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference against one of the best in the Western Conference, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has the top median, ceiling, and floor projection of any player on the slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
SGA has been on fire for the Thunder this season, leading them to a 22-9 record. He had his streak of six straight games with at least 30 points come to an end on a slow New Year’s Eve, but he still managed to get the Thunder the win and chip in a solid 24 points. Over his last 10 games, Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged 1.63 DraftKings points and 1.67 FanDuel points per minute.
On Tuesday’s slate, this matchup has the highest over/under on the board, and the Thunder have the fourth-highest implied team total. SGA has a 92% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, where his salary is just over $10,000, while on FanDuel, he’s priced at over $11,000. On either site, though, he makes a good pay-up option at point guard since he has been in such good form and will be in one of the best game environments on the night.
Value
With Terry Rozier (illness) not expected to play on Tuesday in Sacramento and LaMelo Ball (ankle) still not ready to return, it will likely be another chance for Ish Smith to move into the starting lineup for the Hornets. Smith is under $4,000 on FanDuel with a 94% Bargain Rating, and he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at point guard on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Smith played 29 minutes on Monday in the Hornets’ loss to Denver, totaling 10 points, four assists, and three rebounds to exceed salary-based expectations. With a 25.2% usage rate, the ceiling is there for him to be even more productive against the Kings.
He’s projected for 28.75 minutes on Tuesday, and he won’t have to do much to be a good value for his very affordable salary, so expect him to be a very popular but productive bargain play on Tuesday if he gets his second straight start for Charlotte.
Fast Break
The Hornets are so injury-depleted that they should be a great matchup for De’Aaron Fox. Fox has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel. He matches 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel, more than any other point guard on the slate, and over his last eight games, he has produced 1.51 DraftKings points and 1.49 FanDuel points per minute. He’s a solid pay-up alternative to SGA.
The Warriors switched up their starting lineup for the last game of 2023, and it will be interesting to see who they roll with against the Magic on Tuesday. Chris Paul moved into the starting lineup and had a good game with 24 points and six assists against the Mavs. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings at point guard and the sixth-highest on FanDuel. Especially on DraftKings, he looks like he’ll be a steal if he gets a second straight start.
If you’re looking for a cheap play aside from Ish, Patrick Beverley has recently been getting more work for the 76ers and should be set up for more minutes with De’Anthony Melton (back) ruled out. Pat Bev has outperformed salary-based expectations in four of his last five games on FanDuel and two of his last three on DraftKings. He probably won’t get enough usage to have an extremely high ceiling, but he can still fill the box score in multiple categories when on the floor.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Brandon Ingram has been heating up for the Pelicans and has exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his last nine games on both DraftKings and FanDuel, including big games in each of his three most recent contests.
He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard and the fourth-highest at small forward on DraftKings, while on FanDuel, he can shift from small forward to power forward. He’s a good play on either site but is especially strong on DraftKings due to a 90% Bargain Rating.
Ingram has produced 1.24 DraftKings points and 1.25 FanDuel points per minute over his last nine games while averaging 34 minutes per game. He has at least 24 points in three straight games and led the Pels to home wins over the Jazz and Lakers to close out 2023.
He’ll start 2024 in a favorable matchup against the Nets.
Value
The Grizzlies are getting healthy and have a great matchup against the Spurs. They have the second-highest implied team total on the slate, so there should be enough points to make multiple Memphis options good plays on Tuesday. One value option that pops in our projections is Luke Kennard, who just returned from a six-week absence due to a knee injury.
He came off the bench on Sunday and showed no signs of rust, draining five three-pointers and piling up 17 points in 20 minutes. He has produced 0.85 DraftKings points and 0.80 FanDuel points per minute in his limited action this season, but if he’s ready to resume a role that gives him 20 minutes or more, he should be a great play at just over $4,000 as a cheap shooting guard option on Tuesday.
Kennard has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard on DraftKings and the sixth-highest at the position on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Desmond Bane has the top ceiling projection at the position in that beautiful matchup against the Spurs, but he’s a little harder to trust now that Ja Morant is back to take some of the usage he carried for the first part of the season. He still has an extremely high ceiling but is less of a sure thing in his current role.
On the other side of that Memphis-San Antonio matchup, Devin Vassell has been playing well for the Spurs. He has at least 17 points in four straight games and six of his last seven. Over his last nine games, he has produced 1.06 DraftKings points and 1.06 FanDuel points per minute while logging a 23.4% usage rate and 32.3 minutes per game.
The Thunder have gone back to Josh Giddey more in recent games, and he is coming off 20 points on Sunday against Brooklyn. Giddey has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard on DraftKings, along with an 87% Bargain Rating.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
He’s become a fixture in this spot over the past few weeks, and DeMar DeRozan is again atop our projections at small forward. He has the highest ceiling projection of all small forwards on FanDuel and comes in second on DraftKings. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on FanDuel and the third-highest on DraftKings.
DeRozan has been carrying the Bulls over the past month while Zach LaVine (foot) has been sidelined. With LaVine possibly nearing a return, DeRozan will continue to carry the load in Philly and is projected for 28.0% usage in 37.1 minutes on Tuesday.
He has scored 20+ points in six straight games and eight of his last nine. Since December 1, DeRozan has posted a 25.8% usage rate and put up 1.11 DraftKings points and 1.11 FanDuel points per minute while averaging 38.5 minutes per game. He had 24 points, six assists, and five rebounds in Chicago’s win over the Sixers on Saturday and will look to put up even better numbers in the rematch on Tuesday.
Value
In addition to the Warriors, the Kings will be another interesting starting lineup to watch for on Tuesday night. On Sunday, Chris Duarte started in place of Kevin Huerter after coach Mike Brown had been hinting at switching up his lineup. If Duarte sticks as a starter, he should be a good value play since he’s only $4,000 on DraftKings and $3,700 on FanDuel.
Duarte ranks in the top five in Projected Plus/Minus at small forward on both sites and is projected for 25.4 minutes in this favorable matchup against the Hornets. On the season, he has played limited minutes but has produced 0.66 DraftKings points and 0.66 FanDuel points per minute.
On Sunday, he played 26 minutes and had seven points and six rebounds. His primary contributions will likely be on the defensive end, but he does enough to be a good cheap play if you need to save salary at small forward.
Fast Break
Franz Wagner has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward on DraftKings and has a 90% Bargain Rating on that site. He has been excellent over his last six games, averaging 1.50 DraftKings points and 1.46 FanDuel points per minute while playing 37.8 minutes per game.
With Gordon Hayward (calf) out and Terry Rozier unlikely to play, Brandon Miller and Cody Martin are again interesting options for the Hornets. Miller has scored 14+ points in each of his last 11 games except his one game that was cut short due to injury. He has played at least 29 minutes in each of his last three games and taken 16 and 17 shots in his two most recent games. Martin has exceeded salary-based expectations in three of his four games after returning from injury.
Another good source of value should be the Spurs; Malakhi Branham has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward and projects well at both guard spots on DraftKings. Julian Champagnie is also a candidate for more minutes, but his role has been very volatile.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
The Magic have been getting great work from Paolo Banchero in addition to Wagner over the past couple of weeks. Banchero has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward on DraftKings and the fourth-highest on FanDuel. He can be boom-or-bust but has been showing off his upside lately.
On the season, last year’s Rookie of the Year has produced 1.17 DraftKings points and 1.13 FanDuel points per minute, but in his last eight games, he has improved that to 1.26 DraftKings points and 1.22 FanDuel points per minute while playing 36 minutes per game.
Without Draymond Green, the Warriors aren’t as tough defensively, and the Magic will rely heavily on Banchero and Wagner as they visit Golden State on Tuesday.
Value
On the other side of that matchup at Chase Center, Trayce Jackson-Davis has been an emerging option for the Warriors and was another one of their lineup adjustments before their last game. He has been getting more work while Draymond Green serves his suspension and has carved out a nice role for himself in the Warriors frontcourt.
Jackson-Davis has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus at power forward on FanDuel and the highest Projected Plus/Minus at center on both DraftKings and FanDuel. On DraftKings, he has a 92% Bargain Rating and the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the whole slate.
Over his past six games, Jackson-Davis has churned out 1.28 DraftKings points and 1.26 FanDuel points per minute in 22.4 minutes per game. On Saturday, he played 29 minutes in his start against Dallas and exceeded salary-based expectations with 17 points and six rebounds.
Fast Break
Zion Williamson has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward on DraftKings and a top-five ceiling projection at the position on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He had an impressively well-rounded game of 21 points, 10 rebounds, and eight assists last Thursday against Utah and dished out six more assists on Sunday against the Lakers. If Zion continues to add more assists, he’ll raise his already-high ceiling to even greater heights.
The Celtics have been very well-balanced in their offense this season, but both Jayson Tatum and Kristaps Porzingis have gone off for big games and been key fantasy plays at times this season. Porzingis only had to play 30 minutes in Boston’s blowout win in San Antonio, but before that, he had a stretch of three straight performances above salary-based expectations with an average of 1.52 DraftKings points and 1.53 FanDuel points per minute.
Most of the best cheap plays on this slate are at other positions, but the top Projected Plus/Minus from power forwards under $5,000 on FanDuel comes from Harrison Barnes. Andrew Wiggins and Kenrich Williams are the best options in that salary bracket on DraftKings.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
One of the biggest storylines on Tuesday will be the return of MVP frontrunner Joel Embiid after a four-game absence with an ankle sprain. He isn’t on the injury report at all, which would indicate he’s ready to come back at full strength. Embiid’s “full strength” has been scary good this season, as he has averaged 1.91 DraftKings points and 1.86 FanDuel points per minute.
On DraftKings, Embiid comes back at only $11,000, which gives him a 95% Bargain Rating. He has the highest ceiling projection and the highest median projection on the entire slate, and he has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings as well.
Even though he isn’t quite as much of a bargain on FanDuel, he’s still an option to consider since his ceiling is so high. Embiid should be able to pick up where he left off, smashing slates on a regular basis. He’s an especially strong play in this juicy matchup against the Bulls, who will still be without Nikola Vucevic and will likely be starting Embiid’s former backup, Andre Drummond.
Value
The Nets have rolled out some odd rotations this season, and trusting coach Jacque Vaughn is sometimes dicey. However, Nic Claxton has been putting up good numbers whenever he gets enough minutes to produce. He’ll likely have to play big minutes against the Pelicans and has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at center on FanDuel and the third-highest at the position on DraftKings.
Claxton has exceeded salary-based expectations in five straight games on FanDuel, producing 1.25 DraftKings points and 1.31 FanDuel points per minute. He has averaged 3.0 blocks per game over that span (which is why he’s so productive on FanDuel), in addition to a solid 9.8 points and 10.8 rebounds per game.
Fast Break
Domantas Sabonis would be the top center on this slate if Embiid was still out. He has 14 straight double-doubles and has added five triple-doubles during that span. In those 14 games, he averaged 1.45 DraftKings points and 1.35 FanDuel points per minute. The only hesitation with playing him on Tuesday is the possibility that the Kings blow out the short-handed Hornets and he plays fewer minutes than normal.
The Hornets have been without Mark Williams (back) for a while, and Nick Richards has stepped in as a solid replacement. He has exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in seven of his last 10 games and has produced 0.87 DraftKings points and 0.87 FanDuel points per minute during that span.
While Trayce Jackson-Davis is the top cheap center play, Day’Ron Sharpe and Larry Nance Jr. stand out as alternative plays under $5,000 on DraftKings. Bismack Biyombo has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of the options under $5,000 on FanDuel.
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