Two great matchups on Monday saw the Pacers and the Pelicans punch their tickets to Las Vegas for Thursday’s semifinals. On Tuesday, the NBA has two more quarterfinals on tap that will set the final four of the first In-Season Tournament.
There are no back-to-backs to worry about and not many injury concerns, so we should get fairly regular rotations as teams look to advance to Thursday’s semifinals. On Monday, starters played heavier minutes than normal, and the best players got more usage as teams went for the win. On Tuesday, our projections anticipate more of the same pattern.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
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Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
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NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
The Knicks will travel to Milwaukee to take on the Bucks in the first of Tuesday’s two contests, and Jalen Brunson projects to be very busy. Brunson has the second-highest median, ceiling, and floor projection at the position on FanDuel behind Damian Lillard, but he projects to be a better play overall since he costs so much less. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal at the position on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Brunson has averaged 35.3 minutes per game with a 32.4% usage rate, and coach Tom Thibodeau continues to live up to his reputation for giving his starters big minutes. Brunson has been effective, averaging 1.15 DraftKings points and 1.10 FanDuel points per minute on the season.
The Knicks have the highest pace differential on the slate, and the Bucks have been a good matchup for opposing point guards. On FanDuel, Brunson matches 11 Pro Trends, which is tied for second-most on the slate. On DraftKings, he matches nine Pro Trends, which is tied for fourth-most on the slate.
Brunson comes in with good form, having exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in six of his last eight games. He had two monster games in his last four, going off for 35 points in a loss to the Suns and 42 points in a six-point win over the Pistons on Nov. 30. He also posted at least seven assists in each of his last four games.
Since the Knicks haven’t played since beating the Raptors last Friday, he should be well-rested and ready to carry the load in this great spot against the Bucks.
Value
According to our Vegas Dashboard, the Western Conference matchup between the Lakers and Suns will be the higher scoring of the two games on the slate, and the Lakers have the second-highest implied team total behind only the Bucks. In that matchup, D’Angelo Russell is the best point guard value on the board. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards by a wide margin. On DraftKings, he has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate.
Russell has produced 1.11 DraftKings points and 1.08 FanDuel points per minute on the season for the Lakers. He can be a little boom-or-bust in the scoring department, depending on if his shot is falling, but he has a 22.9% usage rate that shows he usually gets plenty of opportunities. He has also been contributing as a creator in the offense, with at least seven assists in four straight games and his second double-double of the season in the team’s loss at Oklahoma City last Thursday.
In his most recent game last Saturday against the Rockets, Russell set a new season-high with five steals and also contributed seven assists and nine points. Even when he doesn’t score a ton of points, he’s still finding ways to be a fantasy value.
The Lakers have played the Suns twice this season, and Russell exceeded salary-based expectations in both contests by over 5.0 DraftKings points and at least 7.0 FanDuel points.
Fast Break
Damian Lillard brings the highest median, floor and ceiling projections at the position, and he has exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in nine of his last 10 games. He and the Bucks are still a work in progress, but he has been able to average 1.26 DraftKings points and 1.20 FanDuel points per minute with a 33.1% usage rate in his 18 games with his new squad. He is definitely a strong option worth considering if you have the salary available, even though it is a pace-down spot for him against the Knicks. Brunson does represent better per-dollar value, but Lillard’s ceiling is always high, especially when “Dame Time” mode may apply if he treats this like a playoff game.
Immanuel Quickley is a solid option to consider on the other side of that matchup since he can post big games off the bench for the Knicks. He’s very volatile since his role shifts from game to game but he does bring a high ceiling.
The only Suns point guard on FanDuel projected to get minutes is Jordan Goodwin, but he is not projected for good value. Eric Gordon (knee) is the only major injury question on the slate after missing Saturday’s game with a knee contusion. He’s listed as questionable, and he could end up being a solid midrange play if he gives it a go. He’s averaging over 31 minutes a game for the Suns this season, but his usage has dropped since the team has started to get healthier.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
On DraftKings, Devin Booker is eligible at both point guard and shooting guard, but he’s only a shooting guard on FanDuel. He is a great pay-up play to consider on both sites, though, as he leads the Suns into Los Angeles. He has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projection on the slate for all guards on both sites.
Booker has been limited to 11 games this season by injury. He missed last Friday’s game against the Nuggets but was able to play 37 minutes on Saturday and only had “minimal soreness” after the game, according to coach Frank Vogel. He’s not on the injury report for Tuesday, so he should be good to go in this matchup. He is projected for 30.9% usage and 35.7 minutes at the time of writing.
When available, Booker has produced 1.47 DraftKings points and 1.41 FanDuel points per minute this season. That’s the second-best production rate of any player on this slate on DraftKings and the third-best on FanDuel. Positional scarcity in the backcourt also gives him a bit of a boost in value on this slate, so consider building around Booker on Tuesday night. Even though he’s expensive, he brings the highest Pts/Sal of all shooting guards on DraftKings.
Value
Bucks starting shooting guard Malik Beasley is a strong midrange option on this slate. While he has been starting all year long, he has seen his workload increase recently. He has an 82% Bargain Rating on FanDuel where he can slide to small forward as well, but he is a good midrange option on either site since he’s getting more work lately.
On the season, he has a 20% usage rate, and he has logged over 36 minutes and taken at least 11 shots in each of his last four games.
Beasley has exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in eight of his last 10 games and on DraftKings in seven of his last nine. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of those last four games with more work on both sites.
With his extra run, his salary has also risen, so he isn’t an elite value like he was, but he can still be a very strong option who should log major minutes in this matchup with the Knicks. Beasley is projected for 35.0 minutes on Tuesday, which should give him plenty of potential to bring value.
Fast Break
On FanDuel, D’Angelo Russell can flex over to shooting guard as a great value option, and on DraftKings, Khris Middleton takes the top spot in Projected Plus/Minus. Grayson Allen (discussed below) is a good option on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Austin Reaves has shown some flashes of being very productive off the bench for the Lakers, but he has been quiet lately and his price is over $6,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, so he’s not projected to be a good value option. Max Christie has better Projected Plus/Minus on both sites than Reaves and comes much cheaper. He matches his season-high with 12 points in Saturday’s win over the Rockets and has played over 20 minutes in seven straight games. He’s a good punt option at the position if you want to go cheap at shooting guard and pay up in other spots.
Another cheap option to consider is Donte DiVincenzo from the Knicks. DiVincenzo does a little bit of everything off the bench for New York and hit a season-high seven three-pointers on his way to 21 points in 22 minutes in the Knicks’ most recent contest. He has made multiple threes in four straight games and is producing 0.86 DraftKings points and 0.81 FanDuel points per minute on the season. He has boom-or-bust upside as a streaky shooter, but he comes very affordably on both sites.
If you need to go even cheaper Marjon Beauchamp actually has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all shooting guards on DraftKings from his salary barely over the minimum. On FanDuel, Beauchamp is also under $4,000 but is only eligible at small forward. Christie projects as the best punt play option at the position on FanDuel.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
On FanDuel, Kevin Durant can slide to small forward, and he brings the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus on that site along with the third-highest ceiling, median, and floor projection of all players on the slate. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all small forwards on FanDuel. KD also ranks in the top five on the slate in Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings, where he also has the third-highest ceiling, median, and floor projection of all players at all positions. Durant is only a power forward on DraftKings, but he still is one of the top options to build around.
This year, Durant has a 31.7% usage rate, producing 1.41 DraftKings points and 1.36 FanDuel points per minute. He scored at least 30 points in seven straight games before “settling” for just 27 on Saturday. It was the second night of a back-to-back, though, and he only had to play 33 minutes, which could help him be fresher for this matchup against the Lakers.
Durant had 39 points and 11 rebounds in the first meeting between these teams this season and followed that with 38 points and nine boards in their rematch on Nov. 10. He didn’t have Devin Booker in either of those matchups, so his usage may be a little lower. Still, his potential production in other categories should be a little higher since he won’t have to carry the entire offense.
If you can make his salary work, Durant is always a strong play to consider since he brings so much potential upside. He has a history of terrorizing the Lakers and should be up for this playoff atmosphere in L.A. on Tuesday night.
Value
Durant’s teammate Grayson Allen has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at both shooting guard and small forward on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He doesn’t get nearly the usage of Booker or KD and comes with a much lower ceiling, but he has been getting heavy minutes in his first year in Phoenix. He has helped fill in the gaps with Booker and Bradley Beal (back) dealing with injuries.
This year, Allen has averaged 32.5 minutes per game and produced 0.75 DraftKings points and 0.71 FanDuel points per minute. He has started each of his 18 games and logged over 35 minutes in four of his last six games. In those six games, he has exceeded salary-based expectations four times on FanDuel and three times on DraftKings.
Allen has a 93% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, where his salary is under $5K, but he can work as a strong midrange option on either site. With Gordon off the floor, Allen’s usage increases a little, so he is an especially strong value play if Gordon is sidelined again, leaving even more work and some extra shots available.
Fast Break
As has become the norm, LeBron James is again questionable with his calf injury. He has been playing through the injury regularly but hasn’t been able to put up great numbers lately. In fact, he has fallen short of salary-based expectations in each of his last six games on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has the potential to turn that around in a hurry if we get “Playoff LeBron,” but he has been deferring more to Anthony Davis lately, which makes Davis the better option to consider on Tuesday, according to our projections.
Even though he’s coming off the bench most of the time, Josh Hart has been a very important contributor for the Knicks this season, playing 28.4 minutes per game. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all small forwards on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in eight of his last 10 games and each of his last three on DraftKings as well. Since it’s a pace-up spot for the Knicks, he is a solid midrange play and could end up a stronger value play than even Grayson Allen if the rotation for the Knicks calls on him to play big minutes.
Hart projects as a better value play than his teammate R.J. Barrett, who gets higher usage but has been struggling with his shot lately. Barrett doesn’t usually produce non-scoring contributions at Hart’s level, either.
For the Lakers, Taurean Prince projects to be a solid cheap value play from just $4,000 on FanDuel. On DraftKings, DiVincenzo looks to be a better option at just $4,400 since Prince is priced up a bit more on that site. Marjon Beauchamp also can slide over to small forward on DraftKings, where he has a strong Projected Plus/Minus as a punt play.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
In this pace-up spot against the Bucks, Julius Randle has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all players on FanDuel and the second-highest of all players on DraftKings, behind only Anthony Davis (discussed below). Randle is much cheaper than Davis, Durant, and especially Giannis Antetokoumpo, and as a result, he can leave more room for you to fill your roster with solid options instead of having to scrape by on punt plays.
Randle is coming off three very strong games against the Hornets, Pistons, and Raptors. He exceeded salary-based expectations in each of those contests and posted a double-double in each game. On Friday, he fell just one assist short of a triple-double. While his scoring average is a little down from last year, he’s averaging over an assist more per game than last season. He is producing 1.24 DraftKings points and 1.16 FanDuel points per minute on the season, but those numbers have been trending sharply upward over his last 10 games, during which he has averaged 1.34 DraftKings points and 1.25 FanDuel points per minute.
In his first matchup with Milwaukee, Randle exceeded salary-based expectations and contributed 16 points, 12 rebounds, and five assists in the Knicks’ 110-105 loss. He’ll hope for a better result on Tuesday and has much better form coming into the contest.
Randle has the upside to be an elite producer at a salary that still gives flexibility. Building around him and Brunson is a strong strategy to consider since they’ll likely both get huge workloads from coach Thibs as the Knicks try to pull off the upset in Milwaukee.
Value
The value at power forward is lacking on this slate since there are elite players at the position on all four of the teams in action. Davis, Randle, and Durant bring the three highest Projected Plus/Minus ratings at the position on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Drew Eubanks has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on FanDuel, where he has extra power forward eligibility. He’s followed by Taurean Prince, who can flex over from small forward on FanDuel. On DraftKings, the value options are even thinner, with Josh Hart (discussed above) bringing the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position.
Fast Break
Giannis Antetokounmpo has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections on this slate on DraftKings and the second-highest across the board on FanDuel. He brings the potential to go off and totally smash the slate and has been very good this season, producing 1.61 DraftKings points and 1.51 FanDuel points per minute.
He has been especially effective lately, exceeding even his lofty salary-based expectations in seven of his last eight games on FanDuel. He always deserves consideration since he has such an elite ceiling, but on this slate, he’s very expensive at over $12,000 on FanDuel and over $11,000 on DraftKings. You can definitely build around Giannis, but you’ll have to stretch your salary at other spots and find some great value. Since it’s a pace-down spot for the Bucks, our projections point to other plays as stronger ways to spend your cap on Tuesday.
Bobby Portis usually gets good minutes off the bench behind Giannis, but his production can be a little erratic. He did have a double-double on Saturday against the Hawks, but he only had four points and two rebounds in his first meeting with the Knicks this season. He has potential upside but also has a low floor.
The Lakers just got Jarred Vanderbilt back from a heel injury that delayed his season debut until last Saturday. He played just 14 minutes and went scoreless in that game, but he should grow into a much larger role as he ramps up. Vanderbilt is a punt play with upside at the position but doesn’t have a super-high ceiling since he’s only projected for 14 minutes.
On FanDuel, Isaiah Hartenstein and Christian Wood have added power forward flexibility and can work as cheap plays as well.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
On both DraftKings and FanDuel, Anthony Davis is an elite option, according to our projections. He has the highest ceiling, median and floor projection on FanDuel, and the second-highest on DraftKings just behind Giannis, who costs $1,400 more for a very marginal gain. Davis has the highest Pts/Sal and the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the whole slate on DraftKings.
Davis has exceeded salary-based expectations on both DraftKings and FanDuel in each of his last three games with at least 27 points and at least 14 rebounds in each of the three games. He has produced 1.46 DraftKings points and 1.51 FanDuel points per minute on the season with a 26.9% usage rate. Over his last five games, though, Davis has taken it to another level with a 28.8% usage rate, resulting in 1.63 DraftKings points and 1.65 FanDuel points per minute.
Against the Suns earlier this year, AD had two double-doubles, including a 30-point performance in their first meeting, which was in L.A. He has proven he can dominate the matchup and should be able to keep rolling on Tuesday, especially if he keeps getting more work with LeBron a little hobbled.
Value
On FanDuel, Brook Lopez has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all centers on the slate. He has an 85% Bargain Rating on FanDuel and matches eight Pro Trends on that site as well, which is more than any other center on the slate.
Lopez has scored double-digit points in 11 straight games for the Bucks and scored at least 20 points three times during that span. He went off for an impressive 39 points against the Wizards, showing he had a very high ceiling, but he also consistently contributes, giving him a high floor as well. He’s less of a bargain and value on DraftKings, but with Randle and Davis more affordable on that site and projected as the best values on the slate, it’s probably better to try and pay up for them if possible.
Fast Break
The Suns have gotten solid play from Jusuf Nurkic all season. His 22.1% usage rate does limit his ceiling a little bit, especially with both Booker and Durant on the floor. However, he does contribute good non-scoring numbers. He has an 84% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, and he projects just a little higher than Lopez in terms of Projected Plus/Minus.
For the Knicks, Mitchell Robinson plays most of the minutes in the middle, but he’s more of a defensive option and doesn’t score enough points regularly to be a viable fantasy play.
If you opt to go ultra-cheap, Drew Eubanks, Christian Wood, and Isaiah Hartenstein play significant enough minutes off the bench to be punt play considerations. Wood has the best Projected Plus/Minus of the three on both DraftKings and FanDuel on Tuesday’s slate.
