The NBA continues a busy week with a solid four-game slate on Tuesday night. Even with only eight teams taking the floor, there are lots of fascinating storylines to check out and plenty of fantasy options to consider. Of the eight teams in action, the Grizzlies are the only team on the second night of a back-to-back. The Celtics are the only team playing Tuesday who are scheduled to turn around and play again on Wednesday.
As always at this time of year, there are some key injuries to monitor that could impact the slate with their potential absences. Be sure to refresh the NBA Models for the latest updates and keep an eye on the news hub leading up to game time.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Damian Lillard has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections at point guard on this slate by a significant margin. Lillard and the Bucks are hosting the Spurs in a very favorable matchup since the Spurs play at the third-fastest pace in the NBA and have the seventh-worst defensive rating. According to our Vegas Dashboard, the Bucks have the highest implied team total on the slate by a margin of over 10 points.
Lillard is coming off a great game against the Rockets on Sunday. He had 39 points and 11 assists in one of his best fantasy games of the season. He has exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in 10 of his last 12 games while producing 1.28 DraftKings points and 1.24 FanDuel points per minute. Dame has had a 27.1% usage rate and a 28.8% assist rate, showing how in control of the Milwaukee offense he really is at this point.
While the danger of a blowout is real, Lillard should be able to put together a great stat line, even if there isn’t much crunch time to speak of. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards on FanDuel and the second-highest on DraftKings. He appears primed to outproduce his salary again and is the top point guard pay-up play on Tuesday’s slate.
Value
The only point guard who has a higher Projected Plus/Minus than Lillard on DraftKings is Devin Vassell of the Spurs, who should get some extra work with Victor Wembanyama (ankle) getting the night off. Vassell is only shooting guard eligible on FanDuel, and he brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus at that position on FanDuel. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all players at all positions on FanDuel and the third-highest on DraftKings. He has the second-highest ceiling projection at shooting guard on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
With Wemby off the floor, several Spurs see a huge bump in production due to the available usage. Vassell’s usage increased by 4.6 percentage points to a team-high 28.3%. In his 199 minutes on the floor without Wemby this season, Vaseell has produced 1.16 DraftKings points and 1.11 FanDuel points per minute.
Vassell has shown a very high ceiling over the Spurs’ last few games, including dropping 36 points on the Lakers in the only game the Spurs have won since Nov. 2. He came back to earth with 13 points on Sunday against the Pelicans but he has produced double-digit points in 11 straight games and has a 24.6% usage rate over that span which ranks second on the team behind only Wembanyama. Without Webanyama, Vassell will carry more of the load and should be a good play against the Bucks.
Fast Break
The biggest storyline of the night is the return of Ja Morant to the Grizzlies after his suspension. Since it will be his season debut, he could be limited or a little rusty, but he is expected to be a “full go” right away. He’s very pricey on both DraftKings and FanDuel, making him a high-risk fantasy option until we see what he looks like on the court.
Anfernee Simons has jumped right back into a critical role for the Trail Blazers since returning from injury. In his six games since returning, he has a team-high 31.5% usage rate and leads the team with 204 minutes. He has produced 1.23 DraftKings points and 1.16 FanDuel points per minute during that span. He has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at point guards on both DraftKings and FanDuel as he and the Blazers host the Suns.
Most of the cheap options that pop in our projections come from the Spurs since they’ll have to make up for Wemby’s absence. Tre Jones has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards under $5,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has at least five assists in four of his last five games and is a top creator. Without Wemby, he may also look more for his own shot.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Things haven’t gone as planned for the Suns “Big Three” since Devin Booker, Bradley Beal (ankle), and Kevin Durant have all battled injuries. With Beal sidelined for Tuesday’s matchup in Portland, Booker is projected for over 30% usage and has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projection at shooting guard on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
On the season, Booker has a 32.3% usage rate and has poured in 1.41 DraftKings points and 1.34 FanDuel points per minute. Booker has scored at least 27 points and had at least seven assists in five straight games. Despite that production, his DraftKings salary has dipped below $10,000 and is the lowest it has been since Nov. 21.
With so much projected usage in a very favorable spot, Booker is a great pay-up play at shooting guard and a strong alternative to Lillard if you think the Bucks turn their game into a blowout.
Value
The Warriors moved Brandin Podziemski to the starting lineup three games ago, and the rookie has brought a nice spark and energy while playing over 32 minutes in each start and averaging 30.1 minutes over his last eight games. He ranks in the top six in Projected Plus/Minus at point guard and shooting guard on Draftkings and in the top four at shooting guard on FanDuel.
In his last eight games, Podz has produced 0.95 DraftKings points and 0.93 FanDuel points per minute while playing more minutes than anyone but Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. The Warriors have talked about how their supporting cast needs to step up, and Potziemski has risen to the challenge so far. He’ll look to continue to do that as the Warriors host the Celtics in the marquee late game on Tuesday’s slate in a rematch of the 2022 NBA Finals.
Fast Break
With Morant’s return, Desmond Bane won’t have to carry the Grizzlies’ backcourt by himself anymore. His usage will probably take a hit with Ja’s return, but he has been impressive as the main option, producing 1.23 DraftKings points and 1.18 FanDuel points per minute with a team-high 29.9% usage rate. He still has a high ceiling, but Ja’s return makes him a high-risk option at his salary on Tuesday.
The Celtics listed Kristaps Porzingis as questionable due to left calf strain injury management, and if the big man is out, it actually gives a big boost to Derrick White, whose usage jumps over 3.6 percentage points since Boston usually goes with smaller lineups. White has the fifth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard on FanDuel and the sixth-highest on DraftKings even with Porzingis in the projections, and would climb even higher if Porzingis is out.
Second-year guard Malaki Branham has had a volatile role in the Spurs’ rotation this season, but he has been getting more time and turning in better numbers since moving back into the starting lineup five games ago. He has scored double-digit points in each of those five games, averaging 0.83 DraftKings points and 0.8 FanDuel points per minute while playing 29.4 minutes per game. If he gets a little more work with Wemby sidelined, he brings a high ceiling from his low salary.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Both the Bucks and Suns could turn their games into blowouts, so it might make sense to build around Jayson Tatum instead since his game against Golden State is likely to be very competitive. Tatum has a top-five ceiling projection on the entire slate and the highest on both DraftKings and FanDuel at small forward.
Tatum posted three double-doubles in four games earlier this month before a couple of quiet games against Orlando in his two most recent contests. He has produced 1.31 DraftKings points and 1.23 FanDuel points per minute this season, and those numbers increase slightly when Porzingis is off the floor. He gets more usage and has to do more work on the glass without Porzingis, so he could get an extra boost if the big man sits out Tuesday night.
Even if Porzinigs plays, Tatum’s consistent excellence this season has been enough to make him the top small forward stud on this slate.
Value
Keldon Johnson has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward on this slate since he’s another member of the Spurs who should get more shots without Wemby. Johnson has produced 1.05 DraftKings points and 1.01 FanDuel points per minute on the season, with a 21.0% usage rate. His usage rate increases by 3.3 percentage points without Wemby, though, which gives him a much higher ceiling.
Johnson has scored double-digit points in 15 straight contests, averaging 18.4 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 4.3 assists for 37.1 DraftKings points and 35.6 FanDuel points per game. With a boost from more usage, he should be a solid midrange option on Tuesday.
Fast Break
Khris Middleton has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at both shooting guard and small forward on DraftKings and FanDuel. He has been working his way back into top form in the Bucks’ new rotation, and he has been able to out-produce salary-based expectations in four of his last five games. He has turned in strong non-scoring numbers recently while averaging 15.5 points over his last six games and scoring 20 points on two occasions.
Another member of the Spurs who could get more work than usual is Jeremy Sochan, who has unique eligibility with small forward on DraftKings and power forward on FanDuel added to his point guard eligibility. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward on DraftKings and the fifth-highest at power forward on FanDuel. Sochan is boom-or-bust and has shown a high ceiling but also has disappeared at times.
If you need an ultra-cheap play at small forward, Nassir Little has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of the small forwards under $5K on FanDuel, where he has a 92% Bargain Rating. Even though he’s a little pricier on DraftKings, Little still has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus in that price bracket, with only Doug McDermott ahead of him.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
He’s an obvious play, but Giannis Antetokounmpo continues to put up ridiculous numbers almost every game. He has the highest median, floor, and ceiling projections on the entire slate. Even though he’s $11,000 on DraftKings, he projects to actually be significantly underpriced. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on DraftKings, where he has a 90% Bargain Rating. He also matches 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel, more than any other player on the slate.
Giannis has averaged an amazing 1.64 DraftKings points and 1.61 FanDuel points per minute so far this season. He had 60 points against the Pacers last week and is coming off a 26-point, 17-rebound double-double on Sunday against the Rockets. He’s remarkably consistent, which makes him low-risk, and he brings the ceiling to smash the slate any time he takes the floor, especially in a matchup this favorable.
Value
With so many pay-up plays, grabbing the right cheap values will be critical to balancing out your lineup. One option that comes with good upside at his salary under $4,500 is Naji Marshall of the Pelicans. Marshall has scored double-digit points with exactly seven assists and two steals in two of his last three games to vastly outproduce salary-based expectations.
Marshall’s spot in the rotation has fluctuated for New Orleans this season, but he has proven he has a high ceiling when called on. He has the highest ceiling projection and Projected Plus/Minus of the power forwards under $4,500 on DraftKings, where the options for bargain power forwards are a little thin on this limited slate.
Fast Break
Jerami Grant missed four games with a concussion, but he has jumped right back into the action for the Blazers and returned to his high-usage, high-ceiling role. He had 27 points in his return on Saturday and then had 30 points, seven rebounds and six assists against the Warriors on Sunday while playing 41 minutes. Apparently, he’s back to full strength! With Simons back to share the load, Grant may not get quite as much usage, but he should continue to bring a high ceiling, especially in this good matchup with the Suns.
Jaren Jackson Jr. played just 25 minutes on Monday in a blowout loss to the Thunder, but he’ll be back to a full workload alongside Ja. How it all works remains to be seen, but JJJ has thrived with Ja in the past and is a good option if you can’t pay up for Giannis on this slate.
The Warriors have been starting Jonathan Kuminga while Draymond Green (suspension) is sidelined, but Kuminga hasn’t put up huge numbers in that role yet. He does bring potential upside vs. the Celtics.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Jusuf Nurkic will be returning to Portland for the first time since being traded to the Suns this past offseason. He had 18 points and 12 rebounds against his former squad in Phoenix earlier this season, and he comes into this contest with some good momentum.
Nurkic has exceeded salary-based expectations in four straight games, with at least 12 boards in each of those games. Over his past 11 games, Nurkic has produced 1.28 DraftKings points and 1.27 FanDuel points per minute and logged a 21.7% usage rate.
In his return to The City of Roses, he’s projected for 19.9% usage in 29.9 minutes, giving him the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at center on FanDuel and the fourth-highest ceiling projection at the position on DraftKings. Nurkic should be one of the Suns’ players who gets more work in the offense while the team again awaits the return of Beal.
Value
Zach Collins has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel due to his expected usage bump with Wemby out. Collins has produced 1.14 DraftKings points and 1.11 FanDuel points per minute without Wemby on the floor this season and is projected to get 21.9% usage on Tuesday against the Bucks.
Collins has played under 20 minutes in four straight games but will probably have to play well over that with Wemby out. He showed an extremely high ceiling earlier this season in a starting role, and this would seem to be a spot that sets up ideally for him to reach that level again.
The Spurs will be especially short-handed at center without Wemby since Charles Bassey (knee) tore his ACL in the G League on Sunday. Sandro Mamukelashvili could get some run in this matchup against his former team behind Collins, and he makes an interesting punt play at the minimum salary on DraftKings.
Fast Break
On FanDuel, Jonas Valanciuans has the second-highest ceiling projection at center, and he has the third-highest ceiling projection at the position on DraftKings. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in four straight games with four double-doubles. The Grizzlies remain short-handed up front and have struggled against traditional centers at times this season. Valanciunas had 12 points and 12 boards in 28 minutes against them earlier this season.
It’s also a matchup against his former team for Deandre Ayton, but the center has not been putting up great numbers lately. There seems to be more value from the Spurs and more upside from Nurkic or Valanciunas, according to our projections.
If you have to go cheap, Drew Eubanks is the best non-Spurs option at center. He had a great run with the Blazers and is from Oregon, so he could have a big game for the Suns. If you think the game turns into more of a blowout, he could help clean up plenty of fantasy production in garbage time. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in three of his last four and remains a bargain option to consider.
