The NBA has a focused two-game mini slate this Thursday night with a couple of interesting matchups taking center stage on NBA TV. None of the four teams in action are playing for the second day in a row and none will play on Friday. That should mean we get fairly normal rotations for the most part.
Even with just two games, there are definitely some matchups to attack and others to avoid. Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
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Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
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NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Editor’s note: This article was submitted before Trae Young was ruled out. Check NBA Models for updates.
Stud
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander brings the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection on Thursday’s slate. The superstar point guard has a 31.6% projected usage rate which is also the highest of any player at any position. He missed one game due to injury but, when available, has produced a slate-high 1.59 DraftKings points and 1.55 FanDuel points per minute.
SGA has exceeded salary-based expectations in four straight games and is coming off a big game with 28 points, seven steals, five assists, and six boards on Tuesday against the Spurs. He had double-doubles in the first two games of the season but hasn’t posted one since then. His non-scoring production has still been excellent, though, and his usage makes him the top stud point guard to build around on Thursday night.
On Thursday’s slate, Gilgeous-Alexander is the most expensive option on both DraftKings and FanDuel, but no one can match his potential upside. If you can find value in other spots, he’s a great place to start your lineup, especially since his Thunder have the highest implied team total in the game with the highest over/under, according to our Vegas Dashboard
Value
The Warriors are actually home underdogs to SGA’s Thunder since they’ll be without Steph Curry (knee) and Draymond Green (suspension). The absence of those stars will make Thursday’s contest especially challenging, but it will also open up plenty of usage and opportunity for some of the potential value players on the roster. Even though they’re underdogs, they still have a higher implied team total than both teams in the early game since the late game has a much higher over/under.
Chris Paul will likely have to step into the starting lineup again with Curry out. On Tuesday, he played 36 minutes and had a 21.6% usage rate and is projected for similar numbers on Thursday, making him one of the best values on the slate. He exceeded salary-based expectations on Tuesday with 34.25 DraftKings points and 35 FanDuel points.
With Curry and Green off the floor, Paul has produced 1.03 DraftKings points and 1.03 FanDuel points per minute.
On DraftKings, Paul has the highest Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal of any point guard on the slate. On FanDuel, he comes in second in both those categories.
Fast Break
On FanDuel, Kyle Lowry edges out Paul for the best value numbers since he has a 90% Bargain Rating on that site. Lowry has stepped into a much more prominent role since the injury to Tyler Herro (ankle), and he is projected for 31.9 minutes on Thursday against the Nets. Lowry’s last game was a down performance since he was limited to just 15 minutes due to early foul trouble. The only bright side of that letdown is that he should be well-rested and ready to bounce back for this matchup against Brooklyn.
The Nets won’t have Ben Simmons (hip) for a while, so Spencer Dinwiddie and Dennis Smith Jr. should continue to get most of the work for Brooklyn at point guard. Dinwiddie let up the Magic for 29 points and nine assists in his best game of the season on Tuesday, and he is a solid midrange option to consider with good upside. DSJ has exceeded salary-based expectations in three of his last four games and is looking solid in his role off the bench.
The Warriors’ Brandin Podziemski is another value to consider in addition to Smith on DraftKings. Since he’s only a shooting guard on FanDuel, we’ll discuss him more in depth below.
If you’re really desperate to go cheap, Gary Payton II and Cory Joseph could also get extra time in the Warriors’ makeshift backcourt. Isaiah Joe is also only a point guard on FanDuel and works as an ultra-cheap play with upside. On DraftKings, Joe is eligible at shooting guard and small forward.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Without Steph and Dray, Klay Thompson is the obvious go-to option in the Warriors offense. The same logic just backfired on Tuesday, though, when Thompson played just two minutes before being ejected in Curry’s first game on the sideline. Thompson avoided suspension, so he’ll play Thursday against OKC, and he brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He also has the highest ceiling projection at the position on DraftKings.
Thompson has produced 0.83 DraftKings points and 0.79 FanDuel points per minute overall this season. Without Curry and Green, his production numbers increase to 0.90 DraftKings points and 0.89 FanDuel points per minute, and his usage rate increases by 2.14 percentage points to 24.57%.
Before Tuesday’s early exit, he had scored double-digit points in each of his 10 games and exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in seven of his 10 contests. He has a 95% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, where he is an especially attractive option from a value perspective.
Looking for a bounce-back game, he should get all the usage he can handle in this matchup with the Thunder, who have allowed the fourth-most DraftKings points per game to opposing shooting guards.
Value
On Tuesday without Thompson, Brandin Podziemski broke through with 23 points in 39 minutes. Previously, the rookie from Santa Clara had only played a total of 51 minutes on the season and scored only a total of 20 points. After the game, though, coach Steve Kerr said he needed to play Podziemski more moving forward, so it will be very interesting to see how much Podziemski plays with Thompson back in the mix, but Curry and Green still out.
He showed off his ceiling on Tuesday with 23 points, seven rebounds, five assists and one steal while shooting 50% from the field and knocking down three three-pointers. He brings a high ceiling and should bring good value as long as he doesn’t lose too many minutes.
Podziemski has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at both point guard and shooting guard on DraftKings for this slate. On FanDuel, he’s priced up quite a bit more, making him less of a value and more of a leverage play since his ownership isn’t projected to be high at his elevated price point. You can play him and Klay in the same lineup, or if you don’t think Klay will carry the load, Podziemski is a strong alternative.
Fast Break
Josh Giddey has been solid this season for the Thunder, although his production is down a bit with SGA and other young options doing so well for OKC. Even though he hasn’t been going off for monster games, he is still a strong play with good multi-category upside and has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his past two games.
With their injuries and recent struggles with foul trouble, the Heat have had to rely on Josh Richardson, who has exceeded salary-based expectations on both DraftKings and FanDuel in each of his past two games. His role is a little cloudy with the return of Caleb Martin, who is expected to be available for the first time since the season opener.
On the other side of the early matchup, Dinwiddie makes a lot of sense as a midrange play, as discussed above, and Lonnie Walker IV brings boom-or-bust upside. Walker is worth a look, especially on FanDuel, where he has a 97% Bargain Rating.
Isaiah Joe is another bargain to consider for DraftKings, where has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
On both DraftKings and FanDuel, Jimmy Butler brings the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections at small forward on this slate and is clearly the best option if salary is no obstacle.
Butler is coming off a season-high 32 points on Tuesday in Miami’s win over Charlotte. In that contest, he had to carry a season-high 31.9% usage rate as well, but he was able to rise to the challenge. Butler hasn’t gotten off to a great start by his lofty standards but is still producing a solid 1.07 DraftKings points and 1.08 FanDuel points per minute.
He matches more Pro Trends than any other small forward on both DraftKings (7) and FanDuel (10). On FanDuel, he brings a 79% Bargain Rating as well and has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all small forwards. On Both DraftKings and FanDuel, he has the highest projected Pts/Sal of all small forwards.
Value
Another beneficiary of the recent opportunities opening up in the Miami rotation has been Jaime Jaquez Jr. On DraftKings, Jaquez is still affordable at $4,500, while on FanDuel, his salary has spiked to $5,600. As a result, Jaquez has an 85% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, where he brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position.
Jaquez has scored double-digit points and exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his past four games. He has played over 32 minutes in each of his past three games and hit for over 30 DraftKings points in two of those contests.
East Coast JJJ could get a little squeezed with the return of Martin, but the rookie has shown enough upside that I expect coach Spo will find ways to keep him involved. He’s hard to pay up for on FanDuel, but on DraftKings, he’s a great value at the price.
Fast Break
Jalen Williams continues to defy traditional positions in his role with the Thunder, and as a result, he doesn’t really fit into any one box in this breakdown. He is a shooting guard and small forward on FanDuel while only being eligible at power forward on DraftKings. Wherever he fits in, he has been a good play, producing 0.87 DraftKings points and 0.85 FanDuel points per minute on the season. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at both shooting guard and small forward on FanDuel and the third-highest at power forward on DraftKings.
Royce O’Neale has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus behind only JJJ on DraftKings. He also has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on FanDuel. Another option at just about the same salary with very similar projections is Andrew Wiggins, whose numbers have been down this year for the Warriors, but he may have to step up with Green and Curry both sidelined.
Another Warrior who could end up being a key to the slate is Jonathan Kuminga. Kuminga is only a small forward on FanDuel but only a power forward on DraftKings. He did very little on Tuesday while Dario Saric (discussed below) stepped up, but before that, Kuminga had scored double-digit points in seven straight games. He projects to be a decent but not an elite value while playing 20 minutes with a high usage projection of just under 30%.
Lu Dort’s production has been up and down for the Thunder, but he has been down the last few games as other young scorers take the spotlight. His on-court production on the defensive end is still huge but his offensive numbers come and go.
If you are looking for bargain value at small forward, Isaiah Joe and Gary Payton are again the options to consider on DraftKings. On FanDuel, the best bargain option projects to be Lonnie Walker IV.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
If you were waiting for the day on the calendar when Dario Saric was going to be the key to a DFS fantasy slate, Thursday is your day. Saric had been good all season for the Warriors in limited action, but he really stepped up on Tuesday after Draymond’s ejection. Saric poured in a season-high 21 points in 32 minutes and added strong non-scoring numbers as well.
In what is expected to be an expanded role on Thursday, Saric has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on DraftKings and the second-highest at both power forward and center on FanDuel. He’s projected to play 28 minutes with a 20.3% usage rate, which should give him the opportunity to post another big number.
Even before his breakout, Saric had been solid for the Warriors. On the season, he has produced 1.07 DraftKings points and 1.04 FanDuel points per minute. He has exceeded salary-based expectations on both DraftKings and FanDuel in seven of his past 10 games.
With Curry and Green off the floor, Saric’s usage increases by 4.75 percentage points, and his production balloons to 1.3 DraftKings points and 1.27 FanDuel points per minute. Since he’ll play this whole game without those two players in a great matchup with the Thunder, Saric brings an extremely high ceiling in what should be a step-up and smash spot.
Value
After missing seven games with a calf strain, Cameron Johnson has jumped right back into a sizable workload for the Nets. He eased back in with just 25 minutes last Friday but ramped up to 35 minutes on Sunday and 29 minutes on Tuesday. His shot was a little off on Sunday, but on Tuesday, he got going with 20 points in a win over the Magic. He exceeded salary-based expectations in that game by over 10 DraftKings points and over 15 FanDuel points.
In this matchup on Thursday, Johnson has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward on FanDuel and the second-highest on DraftKings behind only Saric. Johnson has the potential to go off for a monster game as he gets back to full strength, and he’s still under-priced due to his layoff.
Fast Break
Johnson’s teammate Mikal Bridges also has a high ceiling but comes at a much higher price. He’s worth a look if you think he’s poised to go off, but Johnson and O’Neale project to be better plays on a per-dollar basis.
Jalen Williams is a great option at power forward on DraftKings and is discussed above under the small forward section.
On DraftKings, Jaquez and Kuminga are strong value plays in this spot, along with Kevin Love as a possible punt play. On FanDuel, the best projected ultra-cheap option is Dorian Finney-Smith, with Love as an option as well.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
I’ve been in on Bam Adebayo over the past few weeks and have definitely been enjoying the ride. He should be set up for another big game on Thursday since he brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on DraftKings, where he also has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection at the position.
Adebayo has been on an absolute tear lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in five straight games with five double-doubles and a triple-double. He has produced 1.58 DraftKings points and 1.57 FanDuel points per minute over those five games, with an Average Plus/Minus of 18.7 DraftKings points and 18.9 FanDuel points.
Some of his increased usage is due to Butler and Lowry missing action for various reasons, but even with them playing full workloads, Adebayo should be ready to roll in this good matchup against the Nets. Brooklyn does have Nic Claxton back from early-season injury, but it’s still a solid matchup for Bam.
Value
Saric is the top projected value at center aside from Bam, but his teammate Kevon Looney isn’t far behind. Looney’s offensive contributions don’t give him as much upside as Saric ar Adebayo, but he is very reliable with rebounding and defensive production.
He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on both DraftKings and FanDuel since he comes much cheaper than Nic Claxton, who has very similar projections in his matchup with Adebayo. The Warriors game projects as the better environment to produce, and Looney may even get a little extra offensive work with Draymond sidelined.
Fast Break
I’m a huge fan of Chet Holmgren and his overall upside long-term. However, his salary has outpaced his recent production, and he has fallen short of salary-based expectations in four straight games. With the other options available, Holmgren only works as a leverage play, even on this small slate.
Kevin Love projects to be the best bargain play on both DraftKings and FanDuel, with backup bigs Day’Ron Sharpe and Jaylin Williams also possible punt plays.
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