After an afternoon matchup in Paris, the NBA has a four-game main DFS slate lined up for Thursday night. Of the eight teams taking the floor, the Celtics and Thunder are on the second night of back-to-back games, and Boston even needed overtime to get their Wednesday win. On the other end of a back-to-back, the Trail Blazers are the only team in the pool on Thursday that has to turn around and play again on Friday.
Several key injuries have already helped shape the slate and created value opportunities, and other important status updates are expected throughout the day. Be sure to refresh the NBA Models throughout the day for the latest adjustments and monitor the news hub for status updates.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
There are two elite options in the backcourt on Thursday, and we’ll start with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as he and the Thurnder come home to finish their back-to-back with a matchup against the Trail Blazers. SGA has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on FanDuel and the third-highest on the slate on DraftKings. On DraftKings, he has a 91% Bargain Rating and also brings the second-highest median and ceiling projection on the whole slate and the highest floor projection. He has the highest median and floor projection of all players on FanDuel.
The Thunder have the second-highest implied team total and are the heaviest favorites on the slate. SGA’s production is at the heart of everything they do, as evidenced by his 33% usage rate that has resulted in 1.58 DraftKings points and 1.6 FanDuel points per minute. He had a bit of a down game with “just” 28 points on Wednesday in an eight-point win in Miami, but he had scored 30+ points in 10 of 11 games before that. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in 10 of 12 games, averaging 1.61 DraftKings points and 1.62 FanDuel points per minute.
Gilgeous-Alexander projects to be one of the top scorers on Thursday, provided he plays his usual minutes.
Value
The Mavs will be without Luka Doncic (ankle) on Thursday night after he was forced to leave Tuesday’s game twice with ankle pain. Without Doncic and his massive 36.7% usage rate, there will be plenty of opportunities for other Mavs to step up.
Jaden Hardy has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on DraftKings, where he can play point guard or shooting guard. He’s only a shooting guard on FanDuel, where he is also priced up to $5,000. He still brings the second-highest Plus/Minus at the position.
With Luka off the floor, Hardy’s usage increases by 3.7 percentage points to 28.05%. He has produced 1.09 DraftKings points and 1.05 FanDuel points per minute in that situation. He is averaging just 15.2 minutes per game overall this season but has played 26.8 minutes per game in the four games he has played without Doncic this season. In those four games, he has averaged 28 DraftKings points and 27.03 FanDuel points per contest.
Our projections have him at 26.8 minutes on Thursday against the Knicks with a 25.6% usage rate. Those numbers make him an outstanding value on DraftKings and a solid option to consider on FanDuel as well.
Fast Break
Jalen Brunson will face his former team, the Mavs, as the Knicks roll into Big D. Brunson ranks in the top four in Projected Plus/Minus at point guard on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and he is a great option if you want to pivot away from SGA and all the attention that will be placed on the Mavs minus Luka. Over his last nine games, Brunson has produced an impressive 1.28 DraftKings points and 1.21 FanDuel points per minute with a 29.6% usage rate.
Anfernee Simons is also in the top five in Projected Plus/Minus at the position on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has shown that he has a very high ceiling and a very low floor on the Blazers’ current road trip. He had 38 points and 11 assists on Sunday against the Nets but only 12 points on Tuesday against the Knicks. He’s boom-or-bust but brings a high ceiling vs. SGA and the Thunder.
There aren’t a lot of value plays at point guard on this limited slate, especially on FanDuel. One option to consider, though, is Miles McBride, who is under $4,000 on both sites but has exceeded salary-based expectations in three straight games, including a pair of performances with at least 15 points. Some of that has been due to the game situation, but he also appears to be earning an expanded role.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Besides SGA, the other top option in the backcourt on Thursday is clearly Kyrie Irving. Without Doncic, Irving will shoulder the load for the Mavs against the Knicks. With Doncic off the floor, Kyrie has posted a 28.9% usage rate this season and produced 1.42 DraftKings points and 1.40 FanDuel points per minute. He has been even better without Luka in the last month, producing 1.63 DraftKings points and 1.62 FanDuel points per minute with Doncic off the floor.
Since returning from his extended absence due to injury, Irving has averaged 1.54 DraftKings points and 1.55 FanDuel points per minute in five games, and he has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last four games on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Irving has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate on DraftKings and the third-highest on FanDuel. His usage projection is 30.1% in 35.1 minutes, which gives him both a high ceiling and a high floor. Thursday is not a particularly high-paced matchup with the Knicks, but Irving still matches a slate-leading 10 Pro Trends on FanDuel and eight on DraftKings, which is tied for the second-most on the slate.
Value
In his expanded role in the Knicks’ new-look rotation, Donte DiVincenzo ranks in the top six in Projected Plus/Minus at both shooting guard and small forward on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has been a solid source of value and scored double-digit points in six straight games, dating back to his 38-point outburst against the Pacers to close 2023.
DiVincenzo has produced 1.30 DraftKings points and 1.23 FanDuel points per minute in those six games while averaging 24.7 minutes per game with a 22.7% usage rate. On the season his usage rate is only 18.7%, so it’s definitely trending upward since the trade with the Raptors, which gives him much more upside as a strong midrange play.
Fast Break
Especially on FanDuel, Khris Middleton still seems to be a little underpriced. He has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of shooting guards and the fifth-highest of small forwards on FanDuel, where he brings 96% Leverage and a 95% Bargain Rating. Even with Damian Lillard (personal) expected to return, Middleton is a good play on FanDuel vs. the Celtics.
An alternative midrange play to DiVincenzo, Grayson Allen had been excellent for the Suns before a letdown performance on Monday against the Clippers. His salary dropped $1,000 on FanDuel after that eight-point showing, which snapped a string of 13 straight games with double-digit points. In those 13 games, Allen produced 0.86 DraftKings points and 0.85 FanDuel points per minute while averaging 33.8 minutes per game. His role may reduce as the team gets healthier around him, but he still brings enough upside to be a solid midrange consideration on Thursday against the Lakers.
Seth Curry has been quiet lately, but he could also get more work while Luka misses Thursday’s game. He’s under $4,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Thursday’s slate boasts plenty of star power at small forward, but LeBron James still stands out as a top option. He has the highest median and ceiling projection at the position on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He also has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all small forwards on DraftKings and the third-highest on FanDuel. He’s again listed as questionable due to his ankle injury but has regularly been playing through the issue. Be sure to monitor his status, but if he’s on track to play, he can be a great fantasy option.
LeBron has scored at least 25 points in four of his last six games and eight of his last 13. He has had at least seven assists in 12 of those 13 games as well, including five double-doubles and a triple-double during that span. Over those 13 games dating back to mid-December, he has averaged 1.42 DraftKings points and 1.33 FanDuel points per minute and leads the team with a 29.3% usage rate.
James had 38 points, 11 assists, and eight rebounds in his most recent game against the Suns and has exceeded salary-based expectations in all three of their matchups this season. His multi-category production has been sensational and should continue while he continues to try to help the Lakers get back on track.
Value
The top value plays at both forward spots come from the Mavericks on Thursday since there is so much usage available in Luka’s absence. Derrick Jones Jr. (discussed in power forward below) and Tim Hardaway Jr. both get big boosts without Doncic and have excellent Projected Plus/Minus as a result.
On the season, Hardaway has a team-high 32% usage rate with Luka off the floor, which is an increase of over eight percentage points from his typical usage. In his time without Luka, Hardaway has produced 1.20 DraftKings points and 1.09 FanDuel points per minute.
On Thursday, he has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward on DraftKings and the third-highest at shooting guard. The only players ranked higher than him are his own teammates, though. FanDuel has priced up Jones a little bit more, but he still ranks in the top seven in Projected Plus/Minus at both positions.
Fast Break
Jaylen Brown has dropped 30+ points in three straight games for the Celtics and could have a bigger role depending on who Boston has available after their big marathon win over Minnesota on Wednesday. Brown had 31 points and 11 boards in that game, and he has a very high ceiling against the Bucks if he plays and other Celtics stars do not. Keep a close eye out for Boston’s injury report Thursday.
For the Thunder, Jalen Williams is continuing to emerge as a foundational contributor. Williams has chipped in double-digit assists in each of his last two games and scored over 15 points in six straight. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 games on FanDuel while averaging 1.22 DraftKings points and 1.20 FanDuel points per minute. He is becoming an option to consider whenever OKC is in action.
Taurean Prince has the top Projected Plus/Minus of all small forwards under $5,000 on FanDuel and the fourth-highest in that price bracket on DraftKings. He has scored at least nine points in five of his last six games and continues to contribute low-usage, high-minute production in the Lakers’ starting five. With Rui Hachimura (calf) doubtful, there could be more shots for Prince as well.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
The top ceiling projection on the entire slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel belongs to Giannis Antetkounmpo. Giannis and the Bucks have the highest implied team total on the slate as they host the Celtics in a showdown of the top two teams in the Eastern Conference.
Despite a triple-double in the Bucks’ loss on Monday, Giannis fell short of salary-based expectations for just the second time in his last eight games on DraftKings. On FanDuel, Giannis fell short of salary-based expectations for the first time since mid-December. Over his last eight games, he has produced an impressive 1.82 DraftKings points and 1.75 FanDuel points per minute with a 32.6% usage rate.
He’ll get Dame back from his one-game absence for this matchup and should be hyped to put up a huge number to carry his team to the win at home against the Celtics. It shapes up to be a smash spot for Giannis, especially if Boston is less than 100% healthy.
Value
Without Luka, Derrick Jones Jr. has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate on FanDuel, behind only SGA. He has the fourth-highest on DraftKings, but on both sites, he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at both forward spots.
Jones had a double-double on Sunday against Minnesota and has scored double-digit points in three straight. Part of his extra production has been due to the absences of Dante Exum (foot, out), Grant Williams (ankle, questionable), Dereck Lively II (ankle, doubtful), and Maxi Kleber (toe, doubtful). Jones has averaged 0.82 DraftKings points and 0.88 FanDuel points per minute over the last 10 games while playing almost 29 minutes per game. Over that span, he has produced 1.12 DraftKings points and 1.20 FanDuel points per minute while Luka is off the floor.
Fast Break
Jayson Tatum came up huge on Wednesday night, scoring 45 points in 42 minutes just one game after missing a contest due to a lingering ankle issue. Aside from Jaylen Brown and Derrick White, the rest of his supporting cast is a little banged up, so keep a close eye on the injury report to see who Boston will have available. If Tatum plays, he brings a high ceiling in this showcase matchup.
Even with Devin Booker and Bradley Beal now healthy, Kevin Durant brings a high ceiling as well. He is averaging just under 30 points per game on the season and has either 30 points or a double-double in four of his last five games. He seems to be past a hamstring issue that sidelined him for a week before his return on Sunday.
Other than the Mavs and Lakers, who get boosts from injury absences, the best bargain power forward play projects to be Toumani Camara of the Trail Blazers. Camara has scored at least five points in five straight games, including three games with double-digit points. He has averaged 0.87 DraftKings points and 0.86 FanDuel points per minute while logging 26.8 minutes per game. He also showed a high ceiling with a 13-point, 11-rebound double-double against the Spurs during that span.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Anthony Davis has the top ceiling, median, and floor projection at center on FanDuel and is second on DraftKings behind only Giannis. AD also ranks in the top four in Projected Plus/Minus at the position on both sites.
In his last eight games, dating back to Christmas Day vs. the Celtics, Davis has averaged 1.57 DraftKings points and 1.58 FanDuel points per minute while playing a team-high 37.8 minutes per game with a 29.1% usage rate. He has six double-doubles during that stretch, with five games of at least 29 points and a total of 34 steals + blocks.
He has smashed the Suns for a double-double in all three of their meetings this season and had over 25 points in two of those games to exceed salary-based expectations. While the Lakers still may not have solved all their problems, their stars are putting up consistently good enough numbers to be good fantasy plays.
Value
With all the injuries in the Mavericks’ frontcourt detailed above, Dwight Powell will continue to fill in big minutes. Powell has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at center on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel behind only Jusuf Nurkic of the Suns.
He hasn’t had a huge game since a 12-point, 14-rebound double-double on Dec. 28 but has been quietly consistent, averaging 1.02 DraftKings points and 1.05 FanDuel points per minute and playing 20 minutes per game dating back to that big performance.
With all the injuries, Powell has a 24.8-minute projection on Thursday, and he should have no trouble returning solid value if he’s in that large of a role.
Fast Break
Nurkic has an 81% Bargain Rating on DraftKings coming into his matchup with Davis and the Lakers. He brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on DraftKings. He reminded everyone of his ceiling with an 18-point, 19-rebound double-double on Monday vs. Memphis, but he is a high-risk option since there are so many high-usage players coming alongside him now in Phoenix’s rotation.
Duop Reath has been doing a solid job filling in for Deandre Ayton and will be in a fun matchup to watch against Chet Holmgren. Reath is much more affordable and a solid midrange consideration after averaging 1.04 DraftKings points and 1.0 FanDuel points per minute in 25 minutes per game in his five games since Christmas.
If Christian Wood gets some of the minutes that Rui Hachimura fills for the Lakers, he could bring a nice ceiling as a value play as well. He has scored at least nine points in each of his four games in 2024 and has exceeded salary-based expectations in three of those matchups.
