The semifinals of the first NBA In-Season Tournament are ready to roll this Thursday, and the first matchup gets started a little earlier than usual at 5:00 p.m. ET. Be sure to get your DFS lineups locked before the Pacers and Bucks tip things off in Las Vegas, followed by the Pelicans taking on the Lakers in the nightcap. The winning teams will advance to Saturday’s Championship game, where they’ll have a chance to claim the first NBA Cup.
There are no back-to-backs to worry about and not many injury concerns, so the teams should be at full strength for what should be two great games.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
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NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
One of the most impressive players in the early part of the season has been Tyrese Haliburton. Haliburton has carried the Pacers to this point in the In-Season Tournament and has the second-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections for Thursday’s slate. Even though he’s expensive, he has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on DraftKings. Especially on that site, he seems to be underpriced, which is further indicated by his 89% Bargain Rating on DraftKings. On FanDuel, he’s more expensive but still brings the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus.
Haliburton has averaged 1.61 DraftKings points and 1.53 FanDuel points per minute so far this season. Despite battling an illness, he has been able to exceed salary-based expectations on DraftKings in six of his past nine games and salary-based expectations on FanDuel in seven of his past 10.
In the quarterfinal, Haliburton went off with a triple-double of 26 points, 13 assists and 10 rebounds. While he may not post a second straight triple-double, he should continue to have extremely high usage and have plenty of chances in this favorable matchup with the Bucks.
On Thursday, He is projected for 27.4% usage in 37.9 minutes, and the Eastern Conference matchup has a much higher over/under than the later game, according to our Vegas Dashboard. It should be the better game environment for fantasy production, and building around the clear focal point of the Pacers’ offense is a strong strategy to consider.
Value
If you pass on Haliburton, D’Angelo Russell is the best midrange play available. He has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on DraftKings and the third-highest on FanDuel. Russell has been a little boom-or-bust this season but has produced 1.10 DraftKings points and 1.07 FanDuel points per minute.
He is averaging 30.6 minutes per game and has a 22.9% usage rate. Russell has been held under 10 points in each of his last two games, but he has been posting good non-scoring numbers. He had five steals last Saturday against Houston and has also contributed at least five assists in eight straight games.
Russell has a high ceiling for a midrange play and gets plenty of playing time, even though his usage doesn’t allow him to be a truly elite option in most matchups.
Fast Break
The main alternative to Haliburton is Damian Lillard, who brings the second-highest median, floor, and ceiling projections at the position. Lillard has fit in well with his new squad and has exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in nine of his last 10 games. On the season, he is averaging 1.27 DraftKings points and 1.21 FanDuel points per minute with a 33.0% usage rate in his 19 games. On Tuesday, he had 28 points and seven assists to help the Bucks get past the Knicks. Lillard has a higher Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal on FanDuel than Haliburton, so if you can’t quite get Haliburton’s huge salary under your cap, Dame is a very solid option. His ceiling isn’t as high since he has more help, but he does come cheaper than Hali.
C.J. McCollum is the other starter at point guard from these four teams. He has been very good when available this season, but he missed over three weeks with a partially collapsed lung. He has exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in each of his three games since returning. On the year, he is averaging 1.20 DraftKings points and 1.21 FanDuel points per minute. He played 36 minutes on Monday, so he seems to be ready for a full workload. If he were a little bit cheaper, he would challenge Russell for the top value spot.
From the backups who are the cheap options on this slate, Jose Alvarado has the best Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel, and T.J. McConnell does on DraftKings. McConnell is extremely cheap at just $3,400 on DraftKings, but he played under 10 minutes on Monday, so his role could be limited depending on the Pacers’ rotation. Alvarado’s role is a little more stable, but all the backup point guards could be in smaller roles as starters try to press to advance to the finals.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
On DraftKings, Brandon Ingram is only eligible at shooting guard, and on FanDuel, he’s only eligible at small forward. The way he’s been playing, though, he deserves consideration wherever he fits. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all shooting guards on DraftKings along with the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections. On FanDuel, he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward while ranking only behind LeBron James in ceiling, median, and floor projections.
Ingram has been excellent for the Pelicans this year, averaging 1.15 DraftKings points and 1.12 FanDuel points per minute. He stepped up on Monday with 30 points, eight boards, and six assists against the Kings. He can contribute in multiple categories and put up monster numbers when he’s at his best, and he’s projected for 27.2% usage on Thursday. It will be another chance for Ingram to take it to his former team, the Lakers, and I think he’ll rise to the occasion and be a strong fantasy play once again.
Value
The Pacers rotate their wings and ride the hot hand, so minutes and usage vary from game to game, but on Thursday, Bennedict Mathurin is projected to be a very good value. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on FanDuel and the third-highest on DraftKings. He can also slide to small forward on both sites, and he has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward on both sites.
In his second year in the NBA, Mathurin has a 23.5% usage rate this season and has produced 0.91 DraftKings points and 0.87 FanDuel points per minute. Mathurin has scored double-digit points in five straight games and over 15 points in each of his last two, including Monday’s Quarterfinal win over Boston.
Fast Break
With Ingram at small forward on FanDuel, McCollum has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projection at shooting guard, with D’Angelo Russell right behind him.
Buddy Hield is another wing for the Pacers who can go off in some contests. He costs more than Mathurin and isn’t quite as good a value, but he brings a very high ceiling if he gets his shot dropping Thursday against the Bucks. He typically plays more minutes than Mathurin and is coming off a 21-point game against Boston. Before that game, though, he had scored under 13 points in three straight.
Starting alongside Dame in Milwaukee’s backcourt, Malik Beasley has had some big games for the Bucks. He is only projected for 13.5% usage in this contest, but he has also shown the ability to get hot. He logs a lot of minutes in his current role, which also gives him a floor that is a little more stable than the Pacers’ options at the position.
For the Lakers, Austin Reaves has shown some flashes of being very productive off the bench, but he had been fairly quiet over the past few games until hitting a huge three and finishing with 20 points to secure the win in the Quarterfinal on Tuesday. Reaves is a little pricey for his role in the second unit, but he does have upside as both a scorer and creator.
If you’re looking to go cheap at the position, Cameron Payne is coming off back-to-back games with at least 12 points for the Bucks, and Marjon Beauchamp has a solid Projected Plus/Minus for Milwaukee as well. Andrew Nembhard is another backup who gets enough minutes to go off in some spots, but he doesn’t always get the usage. The Pacers also played an extremely tight rotation on Monday, and their backups had down games as a result.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
If you are going with a stud at small forward, the clear top option on DraftKings is LeBron James. On FanDuel, Ingram (discussed above) fits in this spot. Ingram is much cheaper than LeBron and makes a better per-dollar play, but he doesn’t have the pure upside that The King brings on Thursday.
The Lakers and LeBron have managed his workload and minutes this season, and he had failed to exceed salary-based expectations on FanDuel in six of seven games coming into the quarterfinals. He turned that around in a hurry, though, with a monster game of 31 points, 11 assists, and eight rebounds. He played over 40 minutes and had 29.0% usage. There’s no doubt based on how long and how hard he played that this tournament matters to him, and he will be a strong play to build around if he is in that “Playoff LeBron” mode again on Thursday.
On the year, he is averaging a very solid 1.43 DraftKings points and 1.38 FanDuel points per minute. If he gets the extra minutes and even more usage than normal, he has an extremely high ceiling, as he reminded everyone on Tuesday.
Value
For value at small forward, Khris Middleton has ramped up his workload to the point where he demands attention. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on DraftKings and the fourth-highest on FanDuel behind Ingram, Mathurin, and Hield.
On the season, he has averaged 21.1 minutes per game with a 24.9% usage rate, but he has been building up his workload lately. In his last seven games, he has averaged 23.6 minutes per game and has posted over 24% usage four times. He played 26 minutes on Tuesday in the Quarterfinal and contributed a solid 14 points and seven assists to exceed salary-based expectations.
Middleton doesn’t have quite as high a ceiling as the elite plays since his workload is still not as heavy, but he brings great midrange value with a good ceiling in the better game environment. He’s a very solid midrange value at either shooting guard or small forward.
Fast Break
Bruce Brown is worth a look, especially on DraftKings. He has a 75% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and also brings added point guard eligibility. He regularly logs 35 minutes or more for the Pacers and does all the little things that add up in non-scoring categories while also pouring in solid points. He has averaged 0.8 DraftKings points and 0.8 FanDuel points per minute on the season and exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 on FanDuel with an Average Plus/Minus of 5.35 FanDuel points over that span.
Trey Murphy III has only played two games this season for the Pelicans, but he’s projected for 27 minutes and a 20.7% usage rate in this contest. The three-point specialist scored 18 points in his season debut and followed that with 16 points in 30 minutes against the Kings on Monday. He isn’t fully in mid-season form yet but does bring upside if the team is ready to give him his regular minutes. His return does cramp the value of Herbert Jones, who has a lower usage rate than Murphy and can lean more into his role as a defensive stopper with Murphy back in the rotation. Murphy has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on DraftKings.
If you go cheap at small forward, Taurean Prince and Rui Hachimura (on FanDuel) can be options to consider from the Lakers. Beauchamp is another option that can work if you need a punt play.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo continues to be a fantasy monster this season and has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of any player on this slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has produced 1.63 DraftKings points and 1.60 FanDuel points per minute on the season, and he has a positive Projected Plus/Minus on both sites, indicating he’s projected to out-produce salary-based expectations in this contest.
Giannis had 54 points and 12 rebounds in his first matchup with Indiana this season, and he could have a similar signature performance in store for Thursday. Our Projections have him for a 30.9% usage rate in 37.0 minutes. If he carries the load as he has been lately, he should be able to put up big numbers with that much work.
Even though he’s always expensive, he has been able to exceed salary-based expectations on DraftKings in six of his last eight games, including each of his last four. On FanDuel, he has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last nine, including each of his last six.
While he does come at a high cost, his ceiling is so high that he often is worth it if you can make the other pieces work under your salary cap.
Value
If you can’t pay all the way up to Giannis, Zion Williamson has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all power forwards on FanDuel and the fourth-highest at the position on DraftKings. He isn’t a cheap play over $8,000 to be sure, but he does offer salary relief compared to Giannis and Anthony Davis (discussed below).
Zion had a very quiet game for him against the Kings and has finished below salary-based expectations in each of his last three games. He does have huge potential, though, especially if the Lakers focus on shutting down Ingram. Zion is averaging 1.25 DraftKings points and 1.24 FanDuel points per minute on the season. He has scored 25 points or more in seven of his last nine games and should be able to bounce back from his down game last Monday.
Fast Break
If you’re looking for a midrange play at power forward, the two options that show as good plays in our projections are Herbert Jones (discussed above) and Aaron Nesmith. Nesmith is my preferred play of the two, although he is in a volatile role in the Pacers’ rotation. He played 31 minutes on Monday against the Celtics and had 14 points. He has shown an even higher ceiling when called upon for more scoring, but his usage varies depending on if Hield or Mathurin catches fire as a secondary scorer next to Haliburton.
Nesmith’s teammate Obi Toppin is also getting enough minutes to be worth a look but doesn’t have quite as large a role in the rotation. He has scored at least 12 points in six of his last seven games, though, and exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in all six of those contests and five of them on DraftKings.
Bobby Portis usually gets decent minutes off the bench behind Giannis, but his production has been very erratic and often below salary-based expectations.
After missing the first part of the season with a heel injury, Jarred Vanderbilt just returned for the Lakers and is still ramping up. Eventually, he’ll take more time from Hachimura and Prince, but for now, the three will continue their low-usage platoon. They can be decent punt plays but don’t offer as much upside as the other options at the position.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
On both DraftKings and FanDuel, Anthony Davis is an elite option in this matchup. He has the third-highest ceiling, median, and floor projection on both DraftKings and FanDuel behind Giannis and Haliburton. He’s much cheaper than both of those options, though, and brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on DraftKings.
The Lakers are running their offense through Davis on a regular basis, and he has exceeded salary-based expectations on both DraftKings and FanDuel in each of his last four games with at least 27 points and at least 14 rebounds in each of those contests. This year, he has produced 1.46 DraftKings points and 1.50 FanDuel points per minute on the season with a 27.3% usage rate. He has stepped up over his last six games, though, with a 28.8% usage rate resulting in 1.58 DraftKings points and 1.60 FanDuel points per minute.
He will have to tangle with Zion and Jonas Valanciunas in this matchup, but he should be primed to take on his former team and knock the Pelicans out of the In-Seaon Tournament. This will be the first meeting of these teams this season, but he has posted big games against New Orleans in the past. He’s a great way to get a very high ceiling at a slightly lower price, which makes him easier to combine with other stars or leaves you better options for the rest of your roster. He has a 94% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, which makes him especially hard to pass up as a building block on that site.
Value
On FanDuel, Myles Turner has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate. He is second behind Davis in Projected Plus/Minus at center on DraftKings and third on the whole slate behind only Davis and Haliburton.
Turner has posted back-to-back double-doubles with exactly 17 points and 10 rebounds to help the Pacers beat the Heat and the Celtics. He has at least eight rebounds in seven straight games and has double-digit points in 15 straight games. His consistency has been impressive, but he also brings a high ceiling.
The matchup is a tough one against the Bucks, who have a strong interior defense, but the up-tempo pace should match Turner’s style. In their first meeting this season, Turner had 21 points and six rebounds. He played over 34 minutes on Monday against Boston, and if he plays, he’s projected for 31.8 minutes on Thursday as well. If he gets that much work, he should be a solid value to consider if you pass on Davis or use him at power forward and go with a double-big DFS construction.
Fast Break
Brook Lopez is a strong option to consider as well, especially on FanDuel, where he has a higher Projected Plus/Minus than Davis. He’s cheaper than Turner and should also thrive in the up-tempo early game. He doesn’t have the ceiling of Davis or Turner due to his lower usage, but he gets plenty of minutes and solid production regularly for the Bucks.
For the Pelicans, Jonas Valanciunas is a double-double machine this year, producing 10 double-doubles in 22 games, including seven in his last 10 games. He has produced 1.21 DraftKings points and 1.20 FanDuel points per minute on the season, which is a higher rate than Lopez’s production, although he usually plays slightly fewer minutes. In this elimination game, though, the big man may get more work, as he did on Monday when he played 29 minutes before fouling out.
If you have to go cheap and turn to the backup bigs at center, Jaxson Hayes is the best punt play based on Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel, while Jarred Vanderbilt has slightly better projections on DraftKings, where he can flex to center from his primary power forward spot.
