The NBA has eight games ready to roll on Thursday’s main DFS slate, which starts at 7:30 p.m. ET when the Celtics host the Pistons. The Mavericks are the only team playing for the second night in a row, but the Celtics, Hornets, Nuggets, Grizzlies, Trail Blazers and Spurs will finish their back-to-back set of games on Friday.
Several significant impactful injuries could impact different teams’ rotations on Thursday, so be sure to refresh the NBA Models throughout the day for the latest adjustments and monitor the news hub for status updates.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
On both DraftKings and FanDuel, Jamal Murray has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at point guard. Murray battled multiple injuries earlier this season, but he has found a great groove lately. He has scored 20+ points in five straight, producing 1.45 DraftKings points and 1.41 FanDuel points per minute and averaging 31.2 minutes per game.
Murray and the Nuggets are in one of the spotlight games of the night as they host the Grizzlies in a fascinating matchup. It should be a pace-up spot for the Nuggets and a personal challenge for Murray, taking on Ja Morant. Typically, Murray brings his best when in these spotlight games with a good head-to-head matchup.
At point guard on FanDuel, Murray has a top-five ceiling, median, and floor projection but only the seventh-highest salary. On DraftKings, he ranks in the top seven in those projections at the position but has the 11th-highest salary. Our projections have him outproducing his salary slot, making him a strong option in a stacked point guard field.
Value
The Pacers listed Bruce Brown (knee) as out, meaning he’ll miss a third straight game. In his place, Andrew Nembhard has been an excellent value play while stepping into a starting role. Nembhard has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards on FanDuel and the highest of any point guard under $8,000. He has a 92% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, but even on DraftKings, he has a positive Projected Plus/Minus and a good ceiling.
Nembhard produced double-digit points and at least five assists in each of his two starts in Brown’s place. He had 17 points and five assists against the Magic last Friday in one of his best showings of the season and followed that with a solid 11-point, six-assist game against the Rockets on Tuesday. In those two games, he has been very efficient, going 13-of-16 (81%) from the field.
The Pacers are high on Nembhard, whom they snagged with a second-round pick before last season. He should get plenty of minutes and opportunities to return good value for as long as Brown is sidelined.
Fast Break
Luka Doncic leads an impressive list of stud point guards and has some of the highest projections on the slate. He has been carrying the Mavs while Kyrie Irving (foot) has been sidelined, producing 1.84 DraftKings points and 1.67 FanDuel points per minute in his 12 games this month. If you can make his huge salary work, he almost always delivers elite production. He has a 91% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at point guard.
The Bulls have the highest pace differential on the slate as they host the Pacers. With Nikola Vucevic (groin) out for a few games, there will be usage available. Coby White has stepped up with Zach LaVine (foot) out for a while, and he has produced 1.10 DraftKings points and 1.04 FanDuel points per minute over his past 10 games. White has hit a little shooting slump in his last few games but is still getting plenty of chances. He should be in a good spot to bounce back on Thursday.
Injury has limited rookie Scoot Henderson to only 20 games, but the No. 3 overall pick has posted some great games lately. He had 17 points and 11 assists to help the Blazers knock off the Kings on Tuesday, and he has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of point guards under $6,000 on DraftKings and the fourth-highest in that bracket on FanDuel. He’s in a great home matchup against the Spurs.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
The Trail Blazers and Spurs don’t have many wins this season, but they do have exciting young talent, making them a fun matchup to watch on Thursday. The Blazers have looked much better since Anfernee Simons returned, and Simons has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on FanDuel and the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard on DraftKings.
In his 10 games since returning from a thumb injury suffered on Opening Night, Simons has produced 1.22 DraftKings points and 1.15 FanDuel points per minute with a team-high 31.4% usage rate and 34.8 minutes per game. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of those 10 games on FanDuel and seven on DraftKings. He has scored at least 23 points in six straight games and has a very high ceiling against the Spurs, who rank third in the NBA in pace and sixth-worst in defensive rating.
Value
The Warriors made the move to add Brandin Podziemski to their starting lineup seven games ago, and he has responded by averaging over 30 minutes a game with a solid production rate of 1.03 DraftKings points and 0.99 FanDuel points per minute. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards and shooting guards on DraftKings and is in the top six in Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard and small forward on FanDuel.
The rookie has regularly contributed in multiple categories with double-digit points in five of his last six games, at least five assists in five of those six contests, and at least five rebounds in 12 straight. His multifaceted production gives him both a high ceiling and a high floor.
Podziemski has a 92% Bargain Rating on DraftKings for this matchup with the Heat.
Fast Break
Anthony Edwards has the second-highest ceiling projection at shooting guard on both DraftKings and FanDuel behind only Simons. He has scored at least 25 points in six straight games and has produced 1.37 DraftKings points and 1.35 FanDuel points per minute over that span.
One of the most important injury situations to monitor on Thursday is that of the Celtics. Both Jaylen Brown (back) and Jayson Tatum (ankle) are questionable, and if either one (or both) sits, it would set up more work in a great matchup for Derrick White, who has emerged as a key part of the Celtics. White exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 games on FanDuel and seven on DraftKings with an Average Plus/Minus of 11.0 FanDuel points and 7.02 DraftKings points. If either star sits, White should get even more work and would be considered one of the top plays on the entire slate.
While no specific timetable has been given, it sounds like the Nuggets will be without Aaron Gordon (face/hand) for a while. Without Gordon, there should be more usage for multiple Nuggets starters, including Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who gets a usage bump of over two percentage points with Gordon off the floor. KCP’s per-minute numbers aren’t great, but he is still is a solid value option since he gets so many minutes (32.6 per game this season).
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
DeMar DeRozan has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the whole slate on Thursday on FanDuel, and he has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward on DraftKings. He matches a slate-high 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel and 10 Pro Trends on DraftKings. Without LaVine and Vucevic, he’ll have to continue to carry the load for the Bulls in their beautiful pace-up spot against Indiana.
Over his last 12 games, he averaged 38.75 minutes with a 25.6% usage rate. He produced 1.12 DraftKings points and 1.12 FanDuel points per minute over that span. He has scored 20+ points in four straight games and in 10 of his last 12. His non-scoring numbers have been a little inconsistent, but this matchup gives him a ceiling that is too high to ignore at a salary under $9,000.
Value
Especially on DraftKings, Michael Porter Jr. is a great option since he should also pick up extra work with Gordon sidelined. Porter has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings at both small forward and power forward along with a 93% Bargain Rating. MPJ can also slide to power forward, where he has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings. On FanDuel, Porter is in the top eight in Projected Plus/Minus at both positions as well.
Porter has produced 1.13 DraftKings points and 1.06 FanDuel points per minute with Gordon off the floor this season. In the four games that Gordon missed earlier this season, Porter produced 1.26 DraftKings points and 1.18 FanDuel points per minute.
Although he has taken a little bit of a smaller role since Murray re-emerged, he is coming off a monster game on Christmas Day, when he had 19 points, 10 boards and four blocks in 40 minutes. With that kind of upside and more work coming his way, MPJ is a key to unlocking Thursday’s slate.
Fast Break
LeBron James (knee) is questionable as usual for Thursday’s home game against the Hornets. He has the highest ceiling projection at small forward (if he plays) in what should be a great matchup for him. On DraftKings, he also has added point guard eligibility, making him an even more flexible piece of your roster.
The Pelicans have the second-highest implied team total on Thursday’s slate as they host the Jazz. Brandon Ingram has a high projection as a result and brings the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward on DraftKings and the fourth-highest on FanDuel. He’s projected for 27.0% usage in 35.0 minutes.
If you have to go super-cheap at small forward, Matisse Thybulle has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all small forwards under $6,000 on DraftKings and the second highest in that bracket on FanDuel. Thybulle is a low-usage option with the Blazers but has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his last six games on FanDuel.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
In the Lakers’ matchup with the Hornets, Anthony Davis has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward on DraftKings and a 94% Bargain Rating. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on FanDuel and the third-highest at center.
On the season, Davis has produced 1.47 DraftKings points and 1.49 FanDuel points per minute while playing 34.8 minutes per game with a 26.8% usage rate. He led the Lakers to the In-Season Tournament Championship, and he hasn’t slowed down much since then even though the team has gone just 2-6.
Davis had a monster 40-point, 13-rebound performance on Christmas and should be in an even more favorable matchup against the Hornets, who play fast and give up plenty of points to opposing big men. The fact that starting center Mark Williams (back) is doubtful gives Davis even more of a boost.
Value
With Deandre Ayton (knee) out for their matchup with the Spurs, the Blazers bring some good value in the frontcourt. Jabari Walker has the sixth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all power forwards on DraftKings and the highest of all power forwards under $5,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Walker has produced 1.08 DraftKings points and 1.04 FanDuel points per minute in his last eight games, and those numbers increase with Ayton off the floor. He had 17 points and six rebounds in 22 minutes in Tuesday’s win, and he should stay involved enough to be a great bargain value in this matchup with San Antonio.
Fast Break
Whenever the Pelicans are poised for a big game, Zion Williamson is an option to consider. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on FanDuel and the fifth highest on DraftKings. With his salary sliding under $8,000, he has the potential to vastly outproduce salary-based expectations against Utah. He had 23 points and 11 boards in the Pels’ loss to the Grizzlies on Tuesday.
Like his teammate Derrick White, Kristaps Porzingis is on a nice run. He has had a few injury issues but produced good games when available. He’s coming off an impressive 28-point, 11-rebound showing on Christmas Day against Davis and the Lakers, and he could get more work depending on which players the Celtics have available in their cushy matchup with the Pistons.
Jaime Jaquez Jr. has stepped up for the Heat while they have been shorthanded, and he may have to do so again on Thursday in Golden State. Jaquez had 31 points and 10 boards in one of his best performances of the season on Monday against Philly. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his last seven games by averaging 0.93 DraftKings points and 0.93 FanDuel points per minute in 34.6 minutes per game. If Jimmy Butler (calf) is out for a fourth straight game, Jaquez will remain a solid mid-range play.
NNBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Nikola Jokic continues to post ridiculous numbers on a nightly basis. He has the highest median and ceiling projection of all players on Thursday’s slate. The Joker gets a bigger usage increase than any other player on the team when Aaron Gordon is off the floor this season, and he gets a favorable matchup against Memphis.
On the season, he has produced an amazing 1.81 DraftKings points and 1.74 FanDuel points per minute with a 31.2% usage rate. With Gordon off the floor, his usage jumps to 37.2%, and he has produced 1.98 DraftKings points and 1.93 FanDuel points per minute.
Jokic’s salary has come down on DraftKings, so he has a 91% Bargain Rating on the site and brings the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all centers. On FanDuel, he’s priced over $12,000 but brings the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position.
Value
Pacers center Jalen Smith has the top Projected Plus/Minus at center as he goes against Andre Drummond and the Bulls. On Tuesday, Drummond delivered great value starting in place of Vucevic. For Thursday, his salary spiked, leaving Smith as a much stronger option Thursday. Smith just returned from an extended absence and has scored double-digit points in each of his three games since returning.
On Tuesday, he moved into the starting lineup in place of Obi Toppin and delivered 12 points, eight rebounds and two blocked shots. If he stays in the lineup, he has massive upside since he has always been a strong per-minute producer with breakout potential.
Fast Break
Drummond went off for 24 points and 25 rebounds against the Hawks in his first start of the season on Tuesday. With Vucevic out, he should continue to get minutes against the Pacers. He may not be able to duplicate that performance, and his salary has skyrocketed, so he’s not nearly the value that he was on Tuesday.
Another great value on Tuesday that may have trouble duplicating his performance is Duop Reath of the Trail Blazers. Reath came off the bench and had 25 points and nine rebounds in 32 minutes against the Kings. He remains extremely cheap and has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all centers on DraftKings. He should continue to get run while Ayton is out, and he makes a good bargain play, especially on DraftKings, where he has a 96% Bargain Rating and a $3,800 salary. If you have to go ultra-cheap on FanDuel, Smith is a better option along with Moses Brown if he starts ahead of Reath again on Thursday.
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