On Thursday, there are seven games on the NBA slate as a dramatic week of action on and off the court continues. The Nets, Heat, and Jazz are playing on the second night of back-to-backs, and the Celtics are the only team that has to turn around and play again on Friday.
With 14 teams in the player pool, there are lots of players worth considering for your DFS lineup. As always at this time of year, there are several key injuries to monitor leading up to tip-off, so be sure to refresh the NBA Models for the latest updates and keep an eye on the news hub.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
There are three elite expensive plays on this slate, and two of them are point guards. Luka Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander both carry the load for their team’s offense and have amazingly high ceilings. On Thursday’s slate, I think SGA is the stronger play since he is significantly cheaper and in a better game environment. The Thunder have the highest implied team total of the night, according to our Vegas Dashboard, and their matchup with the Kings has the highest over/under on the slate. With Kyrie Irving (heel) still out, Doncic is a great play as well, but on a per-dollar basis, SGA is projected to outperform him.
On both DraftKings and FanDuel, Gilgeous-Alexander has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards. He has exceeded salary-based expectations on FnaDuel in four straight games and seven of his last 10.
On the season, he’s averaging a robust 1.57 DraftKings points and 1.59 FanDuel points per minute. He has scored 30+ points in each of his last three games, averaging 1.62 DraftKings points and 1.75 FanDuel points per minute.
He and the Thunder lost to the Kings in their first matchup with them back on Nov. 10, but SGA had 33 points, seven rebounds, five assists, two steals and two blocks. He regularly stuffs the stat sheet like that and should be in a matchup and situation where he can thrive.
Value
The key spot to target for value in the backcourt on this slate is the Jazz, who will be without Jordan Clarkson (bicep) for two weeks and lost Keyonte George (foot) on Wednesday. George will not travel with the team, leaving plenty of work for Kris Dunn and Collin Sexton (more on him below).
Dunn brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards under $5,500 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The veteran has produced 0.98 DraftKings points and 0.96 FanDuel points per minute in his 16 games this season but has only been playing 12.1 minutes per game. Without George and Clarkson, though, he should have more work coming his way and be able to return good value at his salary under $4,500.
On Monday, he played a season-high 25 minutes and had seven assists against the Thunder and matched that assist total on Wednesday against the Knicks while playing 18 minutes and filling in after George left. He has exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel and should be in a spot for more success on Thursday vs. the Trail Blazers.
Fast Break
James Harden has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards on FanDuel. He has exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in six of his last seven games and 10 of his last 13. In his five games in December, Harden has produced 1.24 DraftKings points and 1.22 FanDuel points per minute while averaging 33.2 minutes per game. The Clippers-Warriors matchup has the second-highest over/under on the board, and Harden’s Clippers have the third-highest implied team total.
Since returning from injury, Anfernee Simons has immediately resumed his role as the focus of the Trail Blazers offense. He has over 31% usage in each of his three games back and has exceeded salary-based expectations in each game on both DraftKings and FanDuel by producing 1.22 DraftKings points and 1.12 FanDuel points per minute and playing 36.7 minutes per game. He will get a good matchup against the injury-depleted Jazz backcourt. Simons and Harden both offer elite upside at much cheaper salaries than Doncic and SGA.
With Anthony Edwards (hip) battling injury, Mike Conley has been a strong midrange option. He has exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in 10 straight games, has scored at least 14 points in each of his last four contests and has handed out at least seven assists in eight of his last nine.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Even following the return of Simons, Shaedon Sharpe has continued to be very involved for the Trail Blazers, and he actually seems more comfortable with Simond back to share the load. With Jerami Grant (concussion) sidelined and Malcolm Brogdon (knee) and Deandre Ayton (knee) each questionable, there should be plenty of work for Sharpe and Simons both return good value against the Jazz.
In his second season, Sharpe has stepped into a much larger role and averaged 0.93 DraftKings points and 0.89 FanDuel points per minute with a 23.4% usage rate and 36.1 minutes per game. Sharpe has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last five games on both DraftKings and FanDuel, with Simons alongside in his three most recent contests. In those five games, Sharpe has produced 1.15 DraftKings points and 1.08 FanDuel points per minute and averaged 39.2 minutes per game.
Especially if Brogdon is out again, Sharpe should have a big workload against the Jazz and can put up huge numbers while making plays all over the court. Opposing shooting guards average more DraftKings points per game against the Jazz than any other team in the NBA, so Sharpe and Simons both have big-time potential on Thursday.
Value
Jazz guard Collin Sexton has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He can fit in either guard slot on DraftKings but is just a shooting guard on FanDuel, where he has an 88% Bargain Rating.
With George and Clarkson out, Sexton is projected for a 29.3% usage rate in 29.8 minutes against Portland. He has a 27.6% usage rate with those two players off the floor this season and has produced 1.28 DraftKings points and 1.24 FanDuel points per minute in that scenario.
Sexton scored 26 points against the Knicks in Wednesday’s win and matched his season-high with seven assists. He is in an outstanding spot to deliver elite value on Thursday as well, with even more work coming his way.
Fast Break
Donovan Mitchell had 29 points against Boston on Tuesday night, including scoring 11 straight points in a third-quarter flurry. He has the highest ceiling projection of all shooting guards on FanDuel and the second-highest on DraftKings, behind only Stephen Curry. Mitchell is an expensive pay-up play but always brings the potential for a slate-breaking performance.
Warriors rookie Brandin Podziemski has been impressive lately and could get more time without Draymond Green (suspension). Podziemski had 20 points, 11 rebounds, and five assists in one of his best stat lines of the season on Tuesday against the Suns. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in four of his last five games on both DraftKings and FanDuel, producing 1.00 DraftKings points and 0.96 FanDuel points per minute.
With Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (concussion) sidelined for the Nuggets, Christian Braun becomes a low-salary option to consider. He is in the top seven at shooting guard in Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel and showed his upside with 13 points in 23 minutes against the Bulls on Tuesday.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
The Clippers keep rolling with great production from Kawhi Leonard and Harden. Paul George (groin) has also been very good but is questionable for Thursday’s game after leaving Tuesday’s game after just 16 minutes. Kawhi had another big game after PG13 left on Tuesday and led the Clippers to a comfortable 20-point win over the Kings. He finished with 31 points in 31 minutes and has over 30 points in three straight games.
In his last eight games, Kahwi has exceeded salary-based expectations six times on DraftKings and FanDuel. He had a team-high 26.8% usage during that span, with an average of 1.29 DraftKings points and 1.28 FanDuel points per minute.
Kawhi always seems to get up to take on the Warriors, and he has the potential for a monster game at home against Golden State, especially if George ends up being forced to sit out. Kawhi has the highest median and ceiling projection at small forward on FanDuel and the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus. On DraftKings, he has the second-highest median and ceiling projection at the position and the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus.
Value
The Bulls are still without Zach LaVine (foot) on Thursday as they take their talents to South Beach. As a result, DeMar DeRozan has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward on FanDuel and the fourth-highest at the position on DraftKings, where he brings added power forward eligibility (and the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at that position).
DeRozan had a down game on Tuesday in the second game of a back-to-back, but he was carrying the team before that with 20+ points in four straight games and double-digit assists in three of those contests. Without LaVine on the floor this season, DeRozan’s usage jumps 2.34 percentage points to a team-high 29.2%. He has produced 1.15 DraftKings points and 1.15 FanDuel points per minute in that scenario this season and has cranked that up to 1.21 DraftKings points and 1.17 FanDuel points per minute over his five most recent games.
He should be poised for a bounce-back performance on Thursday and brings a very high ceiling due to his multi-category potential.
Fast Break
With Kyrie Irving (heel) sidelined, Dante Exum has suddenly emerged as a key contributor for the Mavericks. He is eligible at small forward and point guard on DraftKings and both guard spots on FanDuel. Exum has started four straight games and exceeded salary-based expectations in all four games, averaging 1.13 DraftKings points and 1.11 FanDuel points per minute and playing 32.3 minutes per game.
Lauri Markkanen returned from an eight-game absence and looked strong while leading the Jazz past the Knicks. He was on a minute restriction, but he still put together a solid game overall. If he sits out on the second game of the back-to-back, there would be even more value from Utah, with Simone Fontecchio and Ochagi Agbaji all getting more time, especially if John Collins is sidelined or limited by an illness that has kept him out of the last two games.
In the great game environment in Sacramento, Luguentz Dort can be a good value play at small forward since he has scored double-digit points in three of his last four games. He always gets plenty of minutes but doesn’t always log high usage.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
The Celtics beat the Cavs on Tuesday with 25 points, 10 rebounds, and five assists from Jayson Tatum. Tatum may have to do even more work on Thursday since Jaylen Brown (ankle) is questionable. Brown’s absence would open up lots of value across the Celtics roster, but it would especially boost Tatum, whose usage increased 5.7 percentage points to a 35.8% usage rate in his minutes without Brown this season. Tatum has produced 1.45 DraftKings points and 1.37 FanDuel points per minute without Brown on the floor.
On DraftKings, Tatum’s salary has dropped back below $10,000, and $9,700 is the lowest it has been at any point this season. On FanDuel, his salary is $9,800, and he has a 72% Bargain Rating.
Tatum’s dip in salary and boost in usage are converging trends that could make him one of the best plays on the slate. The fact that he’s at home in an important conference game is even more reason to consider building around him this Thursday.
Value
Kings forward Keegan Murray may finally have snapped out of his shooting slump and is also past his possibly-related back issue. Murray has scored 13+ points in four straight games, including 24 points against the Nets and 17 points in a back-to-back to start the week.
Murray has averaged 32.1 minutes per game in his 18 contests this season with a 19.0% usage rate. He has produced just 0.88 DraftKings points and 0.87 FanDuel points per minute on the season, but in his two games this week, those numbers have climbed to 1.04 DraftKings points and 1.05 FanDuel points per minute, and his usage rate has been over 20%.
On Thursday, the Kings have the biggest pace differential on the slate and the highest implied team total. While De’Aron Fox and Domantas Sabonis are pay-up plays to consider, Murray is a midrange play with a good ceiling that is a solid way to get some exposure to that matchup as well.
Fast Break
If Brown is sidelined or limited, Kristaps Porzingis would be another big benefactor. After missing four games with a calf strain, he had 21 points in his return last Friday against the Knicks and a 20-point double-double on Tuesday against the Cavs, who will remain without Evan Mobley (left knee injury management).
The other big name at forward on this slate is Jimmy Butler, who takes on his former team, the Bulls. Butler has a top-four ceiling, median, and floor projection at power forward and has a very strong Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel, where his defensive numbers are especially valuable. He has been held under 20 points in three of his last four games, though, which is why I don’t have him over Kawhi or Tatum.
With Markkanen and Collins’s minutes uncertain, Taylor Hendricks has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all power forwards on DraftKings and the second-highest at the position on FanDuel behind only his teammate Kelly Olynyk. Hendricks is up from the G League but has played over 20 minutes in each of the last two games for the Jazz. He was the No. 9 overall pick in last year’s draft, so Utah could take this opportunity to let the 20-year-old get a look at NBA competition.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Nikola Jokic has the highest median and floor projections of all players on this slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He and the Nuggets picked up two wins on Monday and Tuesday of this week after a three-game skid, but Jokic was only around for 17 minutes of the second win before being ejected in Chicago.
He should be well-rested and ready to smash the Nets on Thursday. On the season, Jokic has averaged an amazing 1.88 DraftKings points and 1.79 FanDuel points per minute, higher than anyone else on this slate by a wide margin. He has a 28.75% usage rate for the year and should be ready to carry more of the workload after his limited work on Tuesday.
Jokic gets a good matchup against the Nets. He posted two triple-doubles against the Nets last season, averaging 28.5 points, 18.5 rebounds, and 10.5 assists in their two meetings in March.
Value
Kelly Olynyk had one of his best games of the season in Wednesday’s win over the Knicks, producing nine points, 10 rebounds, and eight assists in 30 minutes. He has started each of the last two games while Walker Kessler continues to battle injury and play limited minutes. With John Collins and Lauri Markkanen also uncertain for this game, Olynyk brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus at center on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Olynyk has been very solid when called upon for the Jazz this season, producing 1.04 DraftKings points and 1.01 FanDuel points per minute. With Clarkson off the floor, those numbers increase to 1.11 DraftKings points and 1.05 FanDuel points per minute, and his usage climbs to 15.2%. Depending on who exactly is available for Utah, Olynyk could be an elite frontcourt value.
Fast Break
For the Timberwolves, Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns have both been very productive lately. Gobert had a down game on Monday against the Pelicans, but before that averaged 18.0 points and 16.2 rebounds in five games while producing 1.35 DraftKings points and 1.38 FanDuel points per minute over that span. He should be in a good place to bounce back against the Mavericks.
On both DraftKings and FanDuel, Chet Holmgren has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at center. He has 15+ points in eight of his last 10 games and should be in a good spot against the Kings in an entertaining matchup with Domantas Sabonis.
If you have to spend under $5,000 at center, Hendricks and Trey Lyles have the best Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings, and Kevon Looney and Day’Ron Sharpe have the best Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel in that bracket.
