The first Saturday night of the NBA regular season brings a solid seven-game slate of fantasy basketball action. Eight teams are on the second night of a back-to-back after playing Friday, while the 76ers are the only team on Saturday’s schedule that turns around and plays again on Sunday.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
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Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
With James Harden (personal) still away from the team, Tyrese Maxey should continue to get the chance to shine for the 76ers, as they head to Toronto to face the Raptors on Saturday. Maxey stepped up on Thursday against the Bucks with 31 points, eight assists, 53.5 DraftKings points and 53.8 FanDuel points.
With Harden off the floor last year, Maxey saw his usage rate increase by 5.8 percentage points, and he produced 1.19 DraftKings points and 1.14 FanDuel points per minute in that scenario. He should continue to excel in this matchup with the Raptors, who are coming home after losing in overtime to the Bulls on Friday.
Maxey has the third-highest median and ceiling projection of all the point guards on this slate, and he has already shown elite upside even though his salary isn’t in the rarefied air of the biggest stars on Saturday’s slate. He’s a good way to spend a little less without giving up any ceiling.
Value
Taking a look at the Vegas Dashboard, the highest point total on Saturday’s slate comes from the Wizards-Grizzlies matchup in Washington, D.C. One great value to consider to get exposure to that matchup is the Grizzlies’ new point guard Marcus Smart. Smart was acquired in the off-season to help fill in while Ja Morant is serving his suspension, and he has gotten off to a strong start with his new squad.
Smart had 17 points and three assists in his debut on Wednesday and was even better on Friday against the Nuggets. He had five steals, five assists, and 20 points for 40.5 DraftKings points and 42.9 FanDuel points. In those two games, Smart has averaged 1.03 DraftKings points and 1.04 FanDuel points per minute.
He’s projected for another busy night, with 19.9% projected usage in 32 minutes. He ranks near the top of the position by matching nine Pro Trends on DraftKings and ten Pro Trends on FanDuel using the Trends tool.
Smart has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at point guard on FanDuel and the fourth-highest on DraftKings. This matchup with the Wizards gives the Grizz point guards the third-highest Opponents Plus/Minus of all point guards on Saturday’s slate.
Fast Break
As usual, point guard is stacked with great options. Donovan Mitchell is coming off a monster night last night into a great matchup with the Pacers. It would also be a good spot for Tyrese Haliburton, but Haliburton is questionable due to illness and could be less than 100% even if he is available. Mitchell could have some fatigue after carrying the team last night, and Darius Garland (hamstring) could also return. The matchup is juicy enough to jump on in either direction once we get more clarity closer to tip off.
Jalen Brunson bounced back from a rough opening night with a big game against the Hawks, and he’ll go head-to-head with C.J. McCollum, who had 46 DraftKings points in his season opener against the Grizzlies. Both of those star guards have the potential for a big game, although I’d lead toward McCollum since he isn’t on a back-to-back like Brunson.
There are some great cheap plays to consider as well at point guard. The Grizzlies’ Derrick Rose brings the highest projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel and is a good punt play as long as he’s ready to go for the second night of Memphis’s back-to-back.
The Suns’ Jordan Goodwin stepped up in a much larger role on Thursday and delivered 14 points, six rebounds and 28.5 DraftKings points in 30 minutes. With Devin Booker (foot) and Bradley Beal (back) still sidelined, Goodwin will be in for more work once again.
Coby White of the Bulls has started the season strong, out-performing salary-based expectations in both of Chicago’s first two games. He has been stuffing the stat sheet in multiple categories and has averaged 0.92 DraftKings points and 0.87 FanDuel points per minute while playing a total of 70 minutes in two games. With such a large role, he could continue to be a great value.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
The second-highest ceiling, median and floor projection at shooting guard belongs to Desmond Bane. The Grizzlies get that great game environment against the Wizards, and they’ll continue to look to Bane as one of the key producers in their offense.
He opened the season with an awesome 31-point game against the Pelicans that earned him 52.25 DraftKings points and 51.5 FanDuel points. He came back to earth on Friday night with a rough shooting night against the Nuggets (4-of-17 overall and 1-of-10 from three-point range). However, the Wizards don’t have anyone who can slow Bane down, and he and Memphis are still searching for their first win. Bane and Smart form a nice mini-stack in the backcourt, or you can build around him with plays from other teams.
Bane contributes in multiple categories when he’s at his best, and he’s projected for 26.9% usage in 34.6 minutes on Saturday. With that work, he’s projected to bring the best point-per-dollar return of all shooting guards with salaries over $8K on DraftKings.
Value
Without Beal and Booker, Eric Gordon got the start on Thursday night. He’s expected to have the same role on Saturday night against the Jazz. As a result, the veteran brings the highest projected Pts/Sal and highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel behind Derrick Rose.
Gordon has a 23.5% usage rate in his two games this season but has only shot 31.3% from the field and 23.5% from long range. His fantasy outputs have been decent, but the opportunity for much more is there if his shots start dropping like they normally do. Our projections have him bouncing back in his expanded role on Saturday, and the matchup with Utah should be a favorable one for Phoenix as a whole.
Fast Break
While I like Bane a bit better, Jordan Poole is worth a look on the other side of that Grizz-Wiz matchup. Poole brings a very high ceiling but is a volatile “boom-or-bust” style play as he settles into his new role as the man in Washington. He struggled in his debut on Wednesday, going 0-for-6 from three-point distance, but he will continue to get enough work to go off once he gets his game right. He’s worth a look if you want straight upside in a GPP-style build.
In the mid-range, Tyler Herro is coming off a strong showing against the Celtics, as he and the Heat hit Minnesota. Jordan Clarkson is also doing plenty of work for the Jazz in the early part of the year and will look to attack the short-handed Suns’ backcourt on Saturday night after producing 1.05 DraftKings points and 0.99 FanDuel points per minute in his first two games of the season.
If you go cheap at shooting guard, Grayson Allen and Alex Caruso are some veteran options off to strong starts. Allen has the second highest projected Plus/Minus at the position on FanDuel and the third highest on DraftKings. After being held scoreless in the opener, he bounced back well against the Lakers. Caruso is coming off a big game Friday that included hitting the game-winning shot. Keep an eye on the Bulls news to see who Chicago will have available on the second night of their back-to-back and how much heavy lifting will fall to the Caru-show.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
The Jazz knocked off the Clippers on Friday night behind a big game from Lauri Markkanen, who looks ready to build on his breakout season. He posted a double-double and exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in each of his two games this season. Friday, he finished with 35 points, 12 rebounds, 57 DraftKings points and 50.9 FanDuel points. He made five three-pointers and added three assists as well.
Markkanen should have a good matchup against the short-handed Suns, who were just torn apart by Anthony Davis on Thursday night. Markkanen has posted 1.44 DraftKings points and 1.33 FanDuel points per minute in the first two games of the season, and he will look to keep rolling at home on Saturday night.
Value
The Cavaliers rotation is a little uncertain due to Garland’s injury and Mitchell’s workload on Friday, but depending on how things shake out, Caris LeVert could be one of the best values on the board. He’ll be facing his former team the Pacers in what should be one of the higher-tempo games on the slate, and he has gotten off to a strong start to the season.
LeVert has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his two games this season with an average Plus/Minus of 4.49 DraftKings points and 5.15 FanDuel points. He played over 31 minutes off the bench in each game, averaging 27.75 DraftKings points and 24.9 FanDuel points per contest.
He ranks in the top five in projected Plus/Minus at both shooting guard and small forward, and his positional flexibility makes him fit into almost any roster construction.
Fast Break
On the other side of that Pacers-Cavs contest, Bruce Brown was impressive in his Pacers debut and is a solid mid-range option with good upside. He is a small forward on both sites while adding point guard eligibility on DraftKings and shooting guard eligibility on FanDuel.
With Zach LaVine (back) dealing with a back issue, DeMar DeRozan could end up carrying more of the load for the Bulls in their trip to Detroit. DeRozan had 33 points in Friday’s overtime win but did have to log 41 minutes. If LaVine is ruled out, he’ll be in line for enough work to make him a strong small forward play.
In Toronto, Scottie Barnes has started strong with back-to-back games above salary-based expectations and an average of 51 DraftKings points and 50.0 FanDuel points per contest. He and the Raptors have a tough matchup with the Sixers to finish their back-to-back, but Barnes is another high-ceiling stud who is worth a look.
Josh Okogie is another one of the Suns players who has had to step up without Booker and Beal. He has scored double-digit points and exceeded salary-based expectations in both of his two games this season while playing good defense and chipping in a few boards and assists. He hasn’t been a high-volume shooter but has found meaningful ways to contribute and provide points for his fantasy owners.
On the cheap side at small forward, Ziaire Williams of the Grizzlies is a punt play worth considering at under $4K on DraftKings. He’s playing about 30 minutes a game and brings multi-category potential to that matchup with all the points expected in D.C.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
The Suns’ “Big Three” should be fun to watch whenever they get healthy enough. Until then, Kevin Durant is going to have to do all the heavy lifting for Phoenix. On Saturday’s slate, he has the highest ceiling projection of all players at any position and the second-highest median projection on the whole slate. He has the highest ceiling, median and floor projection of any power forward on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
KD started the season with a slow game, shooting only 7-of-22 from the field for 18 points but still posting a double-double and 39.25 DraftKings points. He bounced back in a big way on Thursday against the Lakers, scoring 39 points to go with 11 more rebounds on his way to 53.2 DraftKings points. In that game, he had a massive 45.8% usage rate, and he should be ready for more heavy lifting on Saturday in Salt Lake City.
Durant is still a little under-priced on DraftKings, where he’s under $10K with a 73% Bargain Rating. As a result, he ranks in the top five in both Pts/Sal and projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings, indicators that he’s actually a great value even though he is definitely not a cheap play.
Value
Without Jarrett Allen available, Evan Mobley should continue to return good value at power forward. He’s definitely not a cheap play but ranks in the top four in Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal at power forward on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Mobley disappointed many owners in the season opener on Wednesday but stormed back on Friday with 14 points, 15 rebounds, three assists, two blocks, 41.75 DraftKings points and 40.5 FanDuel points.
He averaged 1.15 DraftKings points and 1.17 FanDuel points last season without Allen on the floor, and this year has produced 0.96 DraftKings points and 0.97 FanDuel points per minute. This should be a good spot for him against the Pacers, who were in the top five in Pace last year and are at the top of the early season standings in that metric. There should be plenty of possessions and opportunities for Mobley as a result, and the potential for a big game is definitely there.
Even if he doesn’t go off, Mobley should be a relatively safe play since the Cavs are so short-handed up front.
Fast Break
Jaren Jackson Jr. has the fourth-highest projected Plus/Minus of any player on the slate on FanDuel and the third-highest at power forward on DraftKings as well. He looked sharp in limited minutes on Friday night. His defensive production makes him especially valuable on FanDuel, where blocks and steals are rewarded a little extra.
It’s also hard to overlook Zion Williamson on this slate, as he and the Pelicans host the Knicks. Zion started the season with a solid game of 23 points and seven rebounds against Memphis, and he will be in a great head-to-head with Julius Randle in a matchup of two power forwards with plenty of potential to go off even though they aren’t quite as safe as the other options listed above.
There are some mid-range plays that make sense too, according to our projections. Deni Avdija is looking to show he’s worth his new contract with the Wizards, and he got off to a good start in the season opener. John Collins has looked very strong with the Jazz and exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his games in Utah. Herb Jones is another versatile contributor available at an affordable price.
If you have to go ultra-cheap, the projections point to Naz Reid as the best option on DraftKings, where he brings the highest projected Plus/Minus at the position. On FanDuel, Drew Eubanks can slide over to power forward, and he’s the best value play under $5K according to the projections. Other cheap plays that stand out include Obi Toppin and Kevin Love.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Even without James Harden, Joel Embiid wasn’t able to get a lot going in his first game of the season. The big man was clearly the focus of the Bucks’ game plan and they were able to limit him to “just” 24 points, 41.75 DraftKings points and 37.4 FanDuel points. It was a disappointing start to the season for the reigning MVP, but he’ll look to get things right on the road in Toronto on Saturday.
Our projections give him the highest median projection, the second-highest ceiling projection and the highest floor projection of any player on the slate. He averaged 56.6 DraftKings points and 56.2 FanDuel points per game last year at the impressive pace of 1.64 DraftKings points and 1.62 FanDuel points per minute. Without Harden on the floor, Embiid’s numbers climb even higher. In the 15 games that he played without Harden last year, he produced 1.8 DraftKings points and 1.8 FanDuel points per minute for just under 59 fantasy points per game.
The Bucks have Brook Lopez, Giannis Antetokounmpo and a very strong interior defense, so I don’t think the blueprint is easily duplicated. Look for Embiid to bounce back in a big way in this smash spot against the Raptors. He averaged 28 points and 9.3 rebounds in his three games against the Raptors last season.
Value
Xavier Tillman Sr. brings the highest projected Plus/Minus on the entire DraftKings slate. Tillman is also eligible at power forward on FanDuel, where he is also in the top 10 overall on the slate in projected Plus/Minus.
In each of his first two games this season, Tillman exceeded salary-based expectations. He has an average Plus/Minus of 7.86 FanDuel points and 7.57 DraftKings in those two games and has averaged an impressive 1.21 DraftKings points and 1.26 FanDuel points per minute.
Without Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke, the Grizzlies are going to have to continue to lean heavily on Tillman and Jackson, and the two are in a favorable spot against the Wizards on Saturday night.
Fast Break
Nikola Vucevic and Jusuf Nurkic both stuff the stat sheet and make good mid-range salary targets if you are looking to spend between Embiid and Tillman. If you don’t trust Embiid and want a high-ceiling stud, Karl-Athony Towns is worth a look against the Heat and Bam Adebayo. KAT has a higher ceiling, but Bam also looked good last night against Boston.
Jalen Duren has been outstanding in his first two games of the season with an average Plus/Minus of 14.4 DraftKings points and 9.92 FanDuel points. Duren may be ready to explode with a breakout season, or he might just be off to a good start, but either way, he can fit into your lineups on Saturday, especially on DraftKings, where he is just $5,900 with a 91% Bargain Rating.
If you need to go ultra-cheap, Reid is an option once again, or you could look to Kevin Love or Isaiah Hartenstein as a punt play.
With so many teams on back-to-backs, there’s also definitely a chance that more value opens up as the day goes on, so keep a close eye on the news feed and be ready to bounce on bargain value plays when they open up.
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