This Saturday, the NBA has seven games on the main slate, which tips off at 7:00 p.m. ET. The Nets, Bulls, Nuggets and Pacers are each finishing a back-to-back set of games while the Hornets will turn around and play again on Sunday.
It shapes up to be an interesting set of games. Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
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Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
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NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
After missing Wednesday’s game with an ankle injury, Tyrese Haliburton returned on Friday night with a big game to lead the Pacers to an upset win over the visiting Cavs. Haliburton appears poised to produce plenty of points again on Saturday and has the highest ceiling, median and floor projection of all point guards in our models for both FanDuel and DraftKings. He also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards and the most Pts/Sal.
In his four games, Haliburton has averaged 19.5 points and 12.5 assists with a double-double in every contest. He has produced 1.49 DraftKings points and 1.42 FanDuel points per minute on the young season and exceeded salary-based expectations in three of his four games. Haliburton came up clutch down the stretch in Friday’s win and is the centerpiece of the offense, indicated by his 25.9% usage rate.
He gets a good matchup on Saturday against the Hornets, who have the second-highest pace in the NBA and the sixth-worst defensive rating. Since the Pacers also like to play fast, the game has the highest over/under on our Vegas Dashboard, and the Pacers tie the Celtics for the highest implied team total.
Value
As Orlando returns home from their trip to the West, Cole Anthony could be a great play, especially if Markelle Fultz (knee, questionable) misses a second straight game. Anthony leads the team with a 26.1% usage rate on the season, but that jumps even higher to 28.6% when Fultz is off the floor.
Anthony had 40.75 DraftKings points and 39.9 FanDuel points helping to fill in for Fultz on Thursday in Utah. Even with Fultz around, Anthony has produced solid numbers, exceeding salary-based expectations in four of his five games this season while producing 1.11 DraftKings points and 1.09 FanDuel points per minute.
Fast Break
Fred VanVleet has gotten off to an uneven start in his first four games in Houston. His two good games have been outstanding though, so he’s worth a look for his high ceiling. He sparkled with 22 points and 11 assists against the Hornets in the team’s first win on Wednesday, which shows both his upside and the good matchup Charlotte should be for Haliburton. If you can’t spend all the way up to Haliburton though, VanVleet brings the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal at the position.
With De’Aaron Fox (ankle) ruled out and missing a second straight game, Davion Mitchell is expected to get another start in his spot. On Wednesday in his first start, Mitchell had his best game of the season by far with 29.25 DraftKings points and 29.6 FanDuel points. He will be in a favorable matchup against Houston and brings good upside.
Under $5K, Mike Conley projects to be a very good value in a game against his former team the Jazz. Conley has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards under $5K on DraftKings. On FanDuel where Conley costs more, Coby White earns that value slot with a 94% Bargain Rating on that site and a heavy workload of 32.0 minutes per game to start the season.
If you have to go ultra-cheap at the position, it’s worth noting that Theo Maledon is priced barely more than the minimum but has played over 20 minutes and exceeded salary-based expectations in each of the Hornets’ two most recent games. Shake Milton and Payton Pritchard also project well as punt plays. Pritchard could be much more involved than normal with Derrick White (personal) ruled out.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
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The Hornets beat the Hawks in their opener but have dropped three straight since to the Pistons, Nets and Rockets. They’ll look to get back on track with their Saturday stop in Indianapolis, where they’ll face the Pacers who are playing for the second night in a row. Terry Rozier is projected for the highest Pts/Sal of any shooting guard on both DraftKings and FanDuel as he leads the Hornets into this contest, and he also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard on both sites.
Rozier has scored at least 20 points in each of Charlotte’s four games, averaging 22.0 points to go with 5.5 assists and a 26.1% usage rate. He has produced 1.0 DraftKings points and 0.97 FanDuel points per minute while playing a heavy workload of 37.0 minutes per game.
With so much volume expected to come his way in the up-tempo matchup between the Pacers and Hornets, Rozier has a high ceiling and should be able to deliver elite production even though his salary isn’t one of the top at the position.
Value
D’Angelo Russell has gotten off to a strong start to the season for the Lakers, and he brings the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal at shooting guard on DraftKings behind only Rozier. He ranks sixth in Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal at the position on FanDuel.
Russell has exceeded salary-based expectations on DraftKings in four straight games, with an Average Plus/Minus of 9.5 DraftKings points. He has exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in all five of his games this season with an Average Plus/Minus of 8.0 FanDuel points.
He had 28 points and 46.5 DraftKings points and 45.5 FanDuel points when the Lakers hosted the Magic last Monday and will be a great value if he comes close to matching that production in the rematch on Saturday in Orlando. The matchup gives him an Opponents’ Plus/Minus of 4.86 on FanDuel and 3.05 on DraftKings, which is one of the most favorable matchups for any guard on Saturday’s slate.
Fast Break
The top ceiling projection at shooting guard on both DraftKings and FanDuel belongs to Anthony Edwards, who leads his TWolves against the Jazz. C.J. McCollum also has one of the highest ceiling projections at the position, but Zion Williamson is expected to return and Brandon Ingram (knee, questionable) could also be back to help relieve McCollum’s heavy workload.
For the Hawks, Dejounte Murray has started the season strong, producing 1.11 DraftKings points and 1.11 FanDuel points per minute. His projections are just a little behind Rozier’s due to the game environment and the fact that he shares so much of the workload with Trae Young. The same is true for Jaylen Brown, who has been solid to start the year but is sharing more of the load with his teammates than Edwards and Rozier. Speaking of Brown’s teammates, Jrue Holiday has also been excellent for the Celtics, and since he’s much cheaper than Brown, he projects to be a better value play.
Jalen Green has also been a good option in the mid-range, with over 20 points in each of his three most recent games. He exceeded salary-based expectations in each of those contests, with over 30 fantasy points in each game. Jordan Clarkson has also found a little bit of a rhythm after a slow start. I like Green’s upside and matchup a little more, but both project similarly from their mid-range salary.
Malik Monk stepped up in Fox’s absence and is a good value, especially on FanDuel where he has a 93% Bargain Rating. Buddy Hield has an even higher Bargain Rating of 96% on FanDuel. On DraftKings, check out Talen Horton-Tucker or Kevin Huerter if you’re looking for a mid-range value
If you have to go ultra cheap at shooting guard, Alex Caruso and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are two of the cheap options projected for good playing time and production.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
If you are looking for high-end production without paying all the way up to the top of the salary structure, Franz Wagner is an excellent option at just $7K on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has the sixth-highest ceiling projection at the position on FanDuel and the fifth-highest on DraftKings, but his salary is barely in the top 10.
Wagner did have a rough outing when the Magic got crushed by the Clippers, but he has been strong other than that. In fact, he bounced back from that with his best game of the season, producing 41.5 DraftKings points and 43.3 FanDuel points against the Jazz. He has averaged 1.05 DraftKings points and 1.03 FanDuel points per minute with a 24.9% usage rate.
Against the Lakers last week, Wagner had 36 DraftKings points and 33.25 FanDuel points to exceed salary-based expectations. If he picks up play-making responsibility with Fultz out, he should be able to turn in another strong game, as the Magic come back to Orlando for the first time since the season opener.
Value
Regardless of whether you love or hate his antics, Dillon Brooks is worth a look in his new role with the Rockets. He has out-produced salary-based expectations on FanDuel in every game this season, and he brings the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal at small forward on Saturday’s slate.
Brooks has scored double-digit points in each of his four games with the Rockets, averaging 27.3 DraftKings points and 26.2 FanDuel points per game. Brooks had his best game of the season in his most recent contest against the Hornets, and he should thrive in this up-tempo environment against the Kings.
Given their salary and matchup, you could build a mini-stack around Wagner, Suggs, and Fultz. If Orlando can keep the game close, those three players should all end up returning good value.
Fast Break
If you have the salary to spend, it’s easy to make the case for Jayson Tatum, who always seems to crush Brooklyn and is clearly the top offensive option for the Celtics, who are tied for the top implied team total of the night.
LeBron James is significantly cheaper than Tatum on DraftKings, where he brings a 70% Bargain Rating and matches a slate-leading 12 Pro Trends, according to our Trends Tool. The King is coming off a vintage performance against the Clippers but did have to log over 42 minutes in his heaviest workload of the season.
For the Bulls, DeMar DeRozan also matches lots of Pro Trends on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has been slightly below salary-based expectations lately but has strong projections against Denver. Like DeRozan, Mikal Bridges hasn’t quite been reaching his salary-based expectations but has the potential to go off and turn things around on Saturday.
Michael Porter Jr. is in the top four in Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel after dropping a season-high 24 points in the Nuggets’ win over the Mavericks on Friday. He’s a very strong mid-range play along with Bruce Brown, who is in that scoring-friendly environment in Indy. On DraftKings, De’Andre Hunter also fits in that category, although he seems a little too expensive on FanDuel.
If you’re diving into the bargain bin at small forward, Saddiq Bey of the Hawks, Kyle Anderson of the Timberwolves and Torrey Craig of the Bulls are a few of the names that pop in the projections.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Karl-Anthony Towns is at his lowest salary of the season so far on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and he’s in a great matchup against the Jazz, whose interior defense has not looked good this season. Utah has allowed the second-most FanDuel points per game to opposing power forwards, and they offer a good spot for KAT to go off.
Towns is coming off a season-high 21 points on Wednesday in his most recent game, but he had a season-low eight rebounds. Before that game, he had three straight double-doubles and was also chipping in a few assists, steals, and blocks. On the season, he has produced 1.15 DraftKings points and 1.12 FanDuel points per minute.
With a favorable matchup and a projection of 35 minutes, Towns has the third-highest ceiling and median projections of all power forwards on the slate behind just LeBron and Tatum. It makes sense to buy the dip in his salary given his upside. He brings the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal of all power forwards on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Value
Without De’Aaron Fox, the Kings will need more from just about every player in the rotation. One player who looks like he’s on the verge of a breakout season so far has been Keegan Murray. Murray ranks in the top five in Projected Plus/Minus at power forward on both DraftKings and FanDuel. On FanDuel, he also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal of all small forwards.
Murray started the season red hot by exceeding salary-based expectations in each of his first three contests with at least 15 points in each game. He went cold from the field in his most recent game, shooting 0-for-7 on three-point attempts after making at least three three-pointers in each of those first three contests.
He should be in a good bounce-back spot against the Rockets in Houston and should get more shots with Fox unavailable.
Fast Break
Again, Tatum and LeBron lead the way in terms of ceiling projections at power forward, but they are very expensive options. Zion Williamson is a steal on FanDuel, where he has a salary under $8K and a Bargain Rating of 95%. He did miss his last game though, and Ingram could return, so there’s risk in rolling with Zion in this spot even at his cheaper salary. He does have a high ceiling though, especially if Ingram remains out.
Kristaps Porzingis has slowed down his fantasy production since his opening night ceiling game, but he’s in a very favorable matchup against the Nets. He usually finds a way to produce value somewhere across the stat sheet.
After a slow start to his sophomore season, Paolo Banchero finally had his breakthrough game against the Jazz on Thursday, with 30 points and over 50 fantasy points while leading his team to a big road win. He gets a nice usage bump with Fultz off the floor, so he could be a good play again on Thursday if Fulttz remains sidelined.
Another member of last year’s rookie class, Jabari Smith Jr. has exceeded salary-based expectations in three straight games for the Rockets. The Kings have also been generous to opposing power forwards, making Smith a strong mid-range play.
Harrison Barnes also fits into that category, especially on FanDuel where he has a 94% Bargain Rating. Aaron Gordon also is very affordable on FanDuel especially and can fit as a mid-tier option.
Cheap plays at power forward who look good in our models include Royce O’Neale of the Nets, Aaron Nesmith and Jalen Smith of the Pacers and Naz Reid of the Timberwolves.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
No player on Saturday’s slate has a higher median or ceiling projection than Domantas Sabonis on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He even has a higher ceiling projection than Nikola Jokic, who costs significantly more than him at the position. Sabonis looks especially strong on FanDuel, where he also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate, with his salary just under $10K, earning him an 89% Bargain Rating.
Sabonis gets a dream matchup against the Rockets, and he’s poised to carry a heavy workload without De’Aaron Fox. With Fox off the floor this season, Sabonis has produced 1.6 DraftKings points and 1.6 FanDuel points per minute.
He had a season-high 27.4% usage rate in the Kings’ most recent game while Fox was sidelined, and he produced 23 points, 11 rebounds, and eight assists against the Warriors. With a significantly better matchup in Houston, Sabonis should be cleared for takeoff in this smash spot against the Rockets.
Value
While he’s not cheap, Myles Turner does look underpriced after going off on Friday night. He has the highest projected Plus/Minus of all centers on DraftKings and is behind only Sabonis and KAT on FanDuel. Turner has a 75% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, where he is especially affordable.
In a fantasy-friendly game environment, Turner has a strong +2.2 Opponents Plus/Minus on DraftKings. He’s coming off a monster game on Friday when he had 27 points and nine rebounds for a season-high 46.75 DraftKings points and 46.8 FanDuel points. He has scored 20 points in three of his five games this season, averaging 1.34 DraftKings points and 1.34 FanDuel points per minute.
As long as he’s not limited after the big workload on Friday, Turner will be in a great spot to build around on Saturday. On DraftKings, you can definitely slide him and Sabonis into a double-center lineup using your UTIL spot. On FanDuel, you can achieve the same “twin towers” look by moving Sabonis over to power forward.
Fast Break
Nikola Jokic and Anthony Davis both always bring sky-high ceilings. They’re more expensive than Sabonis and project as lower values, but they will also likely come with lower ownership. They could be worth a look for some leverage.
If you have to pass on the most expensive plays because you are spending in other spots, the projections point to Kelly Olynyk, Goga Bitadze and Al Horford as good value plays on FanDuel. On DraftKings, Naz Reid, Jalen Smith and Bitadze rank as the best cheap options.
Onyeka Okongwu is also worth a look after exceeding salary-based expectations in three straight games. On the season, Okongwu played over 22 minutes and had double-digit points in each of those three contests, and he’s coming off a double-double on Wednesday against the Wizards.
