There are four games on tap on Saturday night’s NBA schedule, with the Golden State Warriors joining seven Eastern Conference teams to provide a solid player pool of options for fantasy basketball.
Even with a lighter slate, it should be a very interesting night of games with plenty of angles to consider. Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
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NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Of the options near the top of the salary structure, Trae Young projects to be the best value on DraftKings. He has the second-highest median projection and the third-highest ceiling projection at the position but is tied for the highest Pts/Sal and brings the second-best Projected Plus/Minus from the five point guards priced over $8K on DraftKings.
Young matches 10 Pro Trends on FanDuel, more than any other point guard, and he matches nine Pro Trends on DraftKings, which is tied for the second-most at the position.
Trae is coming off a huge game in Mexico City, where he dropped a season-high 41 points to lead the Hawks past the Magic. He exceeded salary-based expectations on DraftKings for the third time in his last four games, while on FanDuel, he’s exceeded salary-based expectations in four-straight contests. He had three-straight double-doubles to start that run and capped it with that 41-point performance against Orlando.
On the season, he has produced 1.31 DraftKings points and 1.23 FanDuel points per minute. Over his last four games, those numbers have been trending in the right direction, as he has averaged 1.41 DraftKings points and 1.33 FanDuel points per minute.
Young and the Hawks have the second-highest implied team total on our Vegas Dashboard, as they return to Atlanta for this matchup against the Heat.
Value
With Tyler Herro (ankle) sidelined for a few weeks after suffering a Grade 2 ankle sprain on Wednesday, Kyle Lowry will have to step up for the Heat. As a result of his expected increase in workload, Lowry already had the highest Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal of any point guard on both DraftKings and FanDuel even before Jimmy Butler (personal) was also ruled out. With Butler now out too, Lowry will have even more heavy lifting to do. In fact, with Butler out, Lowry has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He is projected for 19.0% Usage in 33.9 minutes, which would be enough to make him one of the key players on the slate.
In the game in which Herro was injured, Lowry showed he can still stuff the stat sheet, finishing with his best fantasy performance of the season in a season-high 35 minutes. He had 17 points, 11 rebounds and 9 assists for 47.75 DraftKings points and 42.7 FanDuel points.
He has a similar ceiling in what should be a good matchup against the Hawks. In his eight games this season, he has averaged 0.8 DraftKings points and 0.78 FanDuel points per minute. However, with Herro off the floor, he gains 4.63 percentage points of usage, and those numbers jump to 1.05 DraftKings points and 1.03 FanDuel points per minute.
His salary did bump up a bit with Herro ruled out, but with Butler joining him out of action, Lowry’s salary has not gone up enough to compensate for his production increase. As a result, the veteran should be a top value option at point guard on Saturday.
Fast Break
Stephen Curry is significantly under-priced on FanDuel, where he has a 94% Bargain Rating and is projected to out-produce salary-based expectations. He’s only the third-most expensive option at the position on FanDuel, while he costs more than any other point guard on DraftKings and actually projects to be slightly over-priced.
A key injury situation to watch leading up to tip-off is the status of Bucks PG Damian Lillard. He starts the day questionable with a calf injury, but monitor the news page for updates. If he plays, he’ll have a high ceiling, but if he sits Cameron Payne would become a bargain value option worth a look.
Jrue Holiday has been outstanding for the Celtics, and he brings the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal at the position on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He can also slide over to shooting guard on DraftKings, where he also has the second-highest Pts/Sal and projected Plus/Minus. He has been getting his fantasy production from all over the box score, so he brings both a high floor and a high ceiling to Saturday’s divisional game against the Raptors.
Also in that contest, both Dennis Schroder and Derrick White have had strong starts to the season as well and represent very solid mid-range targets. Schroder actually brings the highest ceiling of the mid-range options and has averaged 1.12 DraftKings points and 1.07 FanDuel points per minute in his first eight games as the Raptors point guard. The former Celtic will try to take down his old team and is one of the better mid-range options at the position.
On Tuesday, Markelle Fultz returned from a three-game absence and jumped right back into Orlando’s starting five. He struggled with his shot but got good usage in his return, showing he has the potential for a high ceiling.
If you have to go cheap at the position, Cameron Payne will be the top option if Lillard is out. Rookie Dru Smith could also get some added work for Miami with Tyler Herro out. Smith is barely over the minimum salary at DraftKings and is also very affordable on FanDuel, where he’s eligible only as a shooting guard. Payton Pritchard seems to have shaken off his early-season slump, but his production is usually reliant on the game being non-competitive at the end and the Celtics allowing their second unit to finish out the game. He brings nice upside if that’s the script you expect on Saturday, but he’s also high-risk since his role is uncertain.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
The Celtics improved to 6-2 on the season on Friday night after opening with an early lead behind a big first quarter from Jaylen Brown. Brown needed only 29 minutes to score 28 points while also matching his season high with five assists on his way to 42.25 DraftKings points and 39.1 FanDuel points.
Brown has outproduced salary-based expectations in five of his last seven games on FanDuel while scoring over 22 points in each of those five contests. He struggled badly in Wednesday’s loss in Philly but bounced back with a big game at home on Friday.
On Saturday’s slate, Brown brings a high ceiling but isn’t one of the ultra-expensive pay-up options. He has the best Projected Plus/Minus of the players over $7K on DraftKings and over $6K on FanDuel. Especially if you think the Raptors-Celtics game will be a close contest, Brown should end up as a good play in his full complement of minutes.
Brown matches 10 Pro Trends on FanDuel, which is more than any other shooting guard on the slate.
Value
Bogdan Bogdanovic brings the highest projected Plus/Minus of all shooting guards and small forwards on DraftKings and is in the top six at each position on FanDuel as well.
Coming off the bench all season, Bogdanovic has produced 1.06 DraftKings points and 1.07 FanDuel points per minute. Bogdanovic has exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in seven of his eight contests this season and has exceeded salary-based expectations on DraftKings in each of his three most recent games.
Bogdanovic matches eight Pro Trends on DraftKings, which is tied for the most of any shooting guard. He has a 75% Bargain Rating on DraftKings as well, and he can fit into almost any roster build with his eligibility at both guard and forward.
Fast Break
Donovan Mitchell has the highest ceiling projection of all shooting guards on FanDuel and is behind only Curry on DraftKings. He is an expensive pay-up option but brings a high ceiling as well. Darius Garland and Caris LeVert are available for this matchup with the Warriors, so the Cavs will have their full backcourt available against the splash brothers.
For the Hawks, Dejounte Murray has been excellent this season and exceeded salary-based expectations in four straight games coming into Wednesday. He had a down game statistically in Mexico, but he did hit the game-winning shot. Murray is a lower-cost option than Young but comes with plenty of upside against the Heat.
OG Anunoby has found his scoring touch in his last two games, dropping 24 and 26 points in the Raptors’ two stops in Texas and outproducing salary-based expectations. He’ll be a good value if he keeps things rolling in Boston, where Holiday and White are strong plays on the other side of the matchup as well.
In Orlando, Jalen Suggs has been very strong in the early going, outproducing salary-based expectations on FanDuel in seven straight games and on DraftKings in six of those contests. Suggs has produced 1.04 DraftKings points and 1.08 FanDuel points per minute on the season and remains a solid play even with Fultz back in action. Cole Anthony is the player most limited by Fultz’s return and appears to be slightly overpriced in our projections.
For the Bucks, Pat Connaughton, Malik Beasley, and Marjon Beauchamp have been logging most of the minutes at shooting guard. Connaughton has the best projections of the bunch and can be a decent ultra-cheap flier.
Although not quite as cheap as Connaughton, Gary Trent Jr. and Duncan Robinson are both value plays worth considering. Robinson brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus at both shooting guard and small forward on FanDuel just ahead of his teammate Josh Richardson in both spots. Robinson and Richardson will both have to carry much more of the workload with Herro and Butler out of the lineup. The reason why Robinson doesn’t show up at this position on DraftKings is that he’s only eligible at power forward (more on that below).
Klay Thompson brings the second-highest projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard on FanDuel, where he brings an impressive 96% Bargain Rating. He’s much more expensive on DraftKings but still has a high ceiling.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
The Raptors have gotten great production from Scottie Barnes this season, and he looks good in Saturday’s projections as well. Barnes brings unique utility on DraftKings where he is eligible at point guard and small forward, while he is a small forward and power forward on FanDuel.
Of the five point guards with salaries over $8K on DraftKings, he has the best Pts/Sal and Projected Plus/Minus. He’s also in the top eight in both categories at small forward. On FanDuel, he is more expensive but ranks in the top four in median, ceiling, and floor projection at both forward spots.
So far this season, Barnes has averaged 1.4 DraftKings and 1.38 FanDuel points per minute. To put that in perspective, that’s more DraftKings points per minute than both Jayson Tatum and Trae Young to this point in the season and more FanDuel points per minute than Steph Curry.
Barnes matches a slate-high 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel and a slate-high 11 Pro Trends on DraftKings. There are six players (who are expected to play) that cost more than him on DraftKings, where he has a 78% Bargain Rating. With his guard and forward eligibility, he fits into just about every roster build on DraftKings. Of all the players on the slate, there’s a great case to be made for Barnes as the most important to include.
In every single one of his eight games this season, Barnes has exceeded salary-based expectations on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has an Average Plus/Minus of 12.9 DraftKings points and 13.05 FanDuel points this season and looks like he could be one of the biggest breakout stars of the season.
Value
So far in his first full season with the Hawks, Saddiq Bey has made three starts in eight games and is averaging 27.9 minutes per game with a 14.8% usage rate. Bey has the third-highest Pts/Sal and Projected Plus/Minus at small forward on DraftKings.
He had a down game on Thursday with just two points, but before that, Bey scored double-digit points in five straight games while exceeding salary-based expectations in each of those five contests. Our projections show that he should be able to bounce back in this matchup with the Heat and is one of the best value plays at small forward on this limited slate.
Fast Break
The other big name to consider at small forward besides Barnes was Jimmy Butler, but without Butler, Jaylen Brown is probably the best alternative. Paolo Banchero and Jayson Tatum both have elite ceilings, but both are expected to come in below their salary-based expectations on this slate. Tatum has been excellent but is priced higher than anyone but Giannis, and Banchero was at his best when helping to compensate for the absence of Fultz. With Fultz back, Banchero’s role isn’t likely to be worth his salary.
Franz Wagner has also cooled off after a strong run of production last week. He still offers lots of upside but will need to shake off a pair of 12-point performances in his last two times out in which he shot a combined 10-for-25 (40%) from the field.
If you’re looking for value aside from Bey, De’Andre Hunter and Jaime Jaquez Jr. each bring good Projected Plus/Minus as value plays on DraftKings in that same matchup. Robinson and Richardson also work well in this spot with their expected expanded usage.
Bogdan Bogdanovic has the top Projected Plus/Minus at the position on DraftKings, so he makes sense here as well. Other mid-range plays with good projections include Andrew Wiggins (especially on FanDuel) and Max Strus, who has been quietly productive in his new role with the Cavs.
If you have to go cheap, there are a few players in the second units that can produce fantasy points. Sam Hauser has gotten good minutes off the bench for the Celtics and Gary Payton II and Joe Ingles have also contributed on the wings.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo unsurprisingly brings the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection on the entire slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He is also the most expensive player on both sites by a significant margin.
It’s been an eventful week for Giannis, who only played 22 minutes on Wednesday before being ejected. With Lillard sidelined on Thursday, he posted a massive 47.9% usage rate and poured in 54 points on his way to 71 DraftKings points and 64.9 FanDuel points. Despite that herculean effort, the Bucks lost to the Pacers.
If Lillard is out again, Antetokounmpo will have to carry a huge load against the Magic and could post another monster game. If Lillard returns, they two should be fired up to be back on the floor together and still post a big game. In his eight games this season, Giannis is producing 1.51 DraftKings points and 1.46 FanDuel points per minute and has a 38.2% usage rate.
Whether Dame is available or not, Giannis is the top big name to target on Saturday’s slate, as he takes on the Magic in Orlando in what should be a smash spot either way.
Value
We’ve finally reached the promised section on Duncan Robinson. Robinson has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel behind only Kyle Lowry. Robinson is coming off a season-high 35 minutes on Wednesday in the game in which Tyler Herro was injured.
Robinson’s usage has increased from 18.39% to 20.08% with Herro off the floor, and he has produced 0.69 DraftKings points and 0.62 FanDuel points while on the floor without Herro. He’s projected to play around 36 minutes with a 19.7% usage rate. Even if he just stays at around his modest per-minute production, he’ll be a good value due to so much more work coming his way.
Robinson has scored at least nine points in six of his eight games this season and brings high upside since he can catch fire from long range. The Heat will need scoring without Herro and Butler, and Robinson is one of the few options available who has shown he can go off and produce points.
Fast Break
If you don’t trust Robinson as your value play on DraftKings, you’ll have to roll with Bey or spend up a little bit to get Jalen Johnson or Draymond Green. Green is an established contributor for the Warriors and has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position, as he returns from missing one game due to a personal matter.
Johnson is less established than Green, but he has been excellent for the Hawks this season, outproducing his salary-based expectations in seven of his eight games and averaging 1.11 DraftKings points and 1.09 FanDuel points per minute. He’s not the bargain he was earlier in the season since his salary has risen, but he’s still an elite mid-range option. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward on FanDuel.
Pascal Siakam came alive after a slow start to the season, dropping 31 points and 12 rebounds in the Raptors’ win in Dallas. It was the first time this season he exceeded salary-based expectations, and he’ll be in a tough spot to do it again in his matchup in Boston on Saturday.
If you need to go extremely cheap at power forward, the options are pretty limited. Jonathan Isaac and Joe Ingles are both under $4K on DraftKings for the Magic, and Dean Wade is affordable in his reduced role in Cleveland. On FanDuel, Precious Achiuwa projects to be the best punt play.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Across the board, Bam Adebayo shapes up to be the best stud play at center, especially with added work while Butler and Herro are out. He brings the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections on FanDuel and the second-highest on DraftKings, behind only Giannis. He has the highest Pts/Sal and Projected Plus/Minus on both sites as well.
Bam has averaged 1.30 DraftKings points and 1.27 FanDuel points per minute this season while playing just under 31 minutes per game. He had two monster games earlier this week against the Lakers and Grizzlies to help the Heat pick up a pair of wins. He had 22 points, 20 rebounds and 10 assists in a massive triple-double against the Lakers and followed that up with 30 points and 11 boards against the Grizz.
No other center matches more Pro Trends than Bam on either slate, and he comes in with so much momentum that he’s hard to fade in this matchup in Atlanta. Unless the game is totally not competitive, it’s hard to see a scenario where Bam doesn’t go off with his 30.2% usage projection.
Value
Filling in for the injured Wendell Carter Jr. (finger), Goga Bitadze has exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in three straight games. He brings the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel for this slate as well, behind only Bam.
Bitadze has averaged 28.4 FanDuel points and 26.3 DraftKings points per game in his three starts. He showed his high ceiling with 10 points, 10 boards, and five blocks in the first game of that stretch and has added good defensive and rebounding numbers to make him a strong value center to consider even though he doesn’t typically get a ton of usage.
He’ll have a tough matchup against Giannis and Brook Lopez in this one, but since the Bucks don’t usually allow teams to go small, he should be lined up for a heavy workload.
Fast Break
While Clint Capela brings the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on DraftKings, it’s actually his teammate Onyeka Okongwu who can be an even better play with his salary of just $4,500 and Bargain Rating of 88% on DraftKings. The salary relief he brings can allow you to pay up at other spots while still getting plenty of potential at center since he has exceeded salary-based expectations on DraftKings in six straight games.
The big men in Cleveland, Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, both bring upside, but they have an awkward matchup with the Warriors, who still often force teams to play small. Mobley had 13 points and 16 boards against them earlier this week, but he doesn’t have quite the same ceiling as earlier in the season when he was helping cover for Allen’s absence.
In his new home in Boston, Kristaps Porzingis has not had to carry as much of the scoring load. As a result, his fantasy production hasn’t quite lived up to his salary, although there’s plenty of upside in his multi-faceted game when he gets it going.
Moritz Wagner has picked up extra work with Carter sidelined as well. He has scored double-digit points in six of his past seven games and exceeded salary-based expectations in five of those contests. He checks in just under $5K on both DraftKings and FanDuel and can be a solid value play.
With all the usage available in Miami, Kevin Love has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at center on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward on FanDuel and the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward on DraftKings, behind only Robinson.
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